San Francisco Giants Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Sep 4, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
21 comments
San Francisco Giants Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published December 24, 2008. This is a review of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.
1) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A: 9-1, 1.95 ERA with 69/30 K/BB in 106 innings for Double-A Connecticut, 80 hits allowed. Negatives are lowish strikeout rate and strong fly ball tendency. Positives are everything else including youth relative to league. I wouldn't rush him....I think he needs a full year in Triple-A next season.
2) Buster Posey, C, Grade A-: Hit .325/.416/.531 combined between Class A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. Power, plate discipline, has everything offensively. Ready to play next year I think.
3) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B+: Traded to Pirates. Combined 10-2, 3.60 with 84/27 K/BB in 132 innings between San Jose, Connecticut, and Double-A Altoona. Lack of dominance is a concern but a great feel for pitching.
4) Angel Villalona, 1B, Grade B: Hit .267/.306/.397 in 74 games for San Jose before getting injured, out with a quad injury. Poor strike zone judgment is holding him back. Still very young, but needs a lot of polish and stock is dropping in my judgment.
5) Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade B-: Hitting .282/.363/.375 for San Jose, 55 walks, 65 strikeouts in 451 at-bats. Lots of polish, good discipline, but not enough power for a third baseman.
6) Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade B- 2.36 ERA with 44/25 K/BB in 72 innings for Connecticut, 61 hits. On DL since June 30th with torn muscle in his back.
7) Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade B-: Hitting .256/.327/.397 for San Jose. Has drawn more walks this year, but production didn't improve otherwise.
8) Travis Ishikawa, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .258/.318/.402 for the Giants. Not enough bat for a starting first baseman at this point.
9) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade C+: 2.25 ERA with 56/30 K/BB in 64 innings combined between Connecticut and Fresno, 41 hits. Needs better control but a chance to help in relief next year.
10) Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .299/.392/.362 for the Arizona Rookie League Giants. Not a lot of power yet, but holding his own in rookie ball.
11) Jose Casilla, RHP, Grade C+: 1.73 ERA with 30/8 K/BB in 26 innings for Salem-Keizer in the Northwest League, 21 hits, 11 saves. Looks good right now, will transition to full-season ball next year.
12) Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade C+: 12-6, 3.05 with a 119/41 K/BB in 136 innings for San Jose, 126 hits. Sleeper prospect having a fine campaign.
13) Jesse English, LHP, Grade C+: 4.20 ERA with 71/57 K/BB in 101 innings for Connecticut, 98 hits. K/BB and K/IP have slipped this year. Very tough on lefties (.151), could have LOOGY potential.
14) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: Traded to Indians after going 12-3, 2.85 with a 99/29 K/BB in 98 innings for San Jose. Struggling in Double-A right now, 6.66 with a 20/12 K/BB in 26 innings for Akron. Overall it's been a good year though.
15) Luis Perdomo, RHP, Grade C+: Claimed by Padres on waivers. 4.70 ERA with 43/28 K/BB in 52 innings in the majors. Not impressive, but will get more chances.
16) Ehire Adrianza, SS, Grade C+: hitting .259/.333/.328 for Class A Augusta. Weak bat, scouts like his glove.
17) Kelvin Pichardo, RHP, Grade C+: Busted for using PEDs. Has pitched just two innings in August for the Arizona Rookie League Giants.
18) Sergio Romo, RHP, Grade C+: 5.04 ERA with 29/9 K/BB in 25 innings in the majors, 24 hits allowed. FIP is 2.49; he's a lot better than the ERA indicates.
19) Jesus Guzman, 3B, Grade C+: Hit .321/.379/.507 for Triple-A Fresno. Still hanging around waiting for a shot in the Show.
20) Joseph Martinez, RHP, Grade C: Took a line drive off the head early in the season. 4.35 ERA with 19/7 K/BB in 31 innings for Fresno, 7.52 ERA with 17/9 K/BB in 26 innings for the Giants, 42 hits. Perhaps a Quadruple-A pitcher but deserves more chances.
The Giants have tapped into their prospect reserves with trades, and the list next year will look somewhat different. Posey and Bumgarner are great, but after that things look like they'll thin out a bit. Tanner has looked like a sleeper to me for some time and I think is a candidate to really surprise people in '10. Gillaspie needs to show more power and I don't think it's impossible. The '09 draft class brings in a mixture of high school and college talent, the kind of combination I prefer myself.
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Crawford
Has Brandon Crawford done enough to make the Giants top 20 list for next year? Also, where do Wheeler and Chris Dominguez fit in?
Pill
Pill has had a HUGE year and definitely should be in your Top 20 next year. The Giants have some useless baggage they need to get rid of.
Top 5 for 2010
Posey/Bumgarner/Wheeler/Neal/Villalona
Would this be consensus?
That’s a stronger top 5 than 2009’s, in my opinion. Honestly, I’d probably bump Rafael Rodriguez above Villalona at this point, but I may be in the minority in that.
Brandon Belt
Looking forward to seeing what he does next year. I know Villalona is young, but that walk rate doesn’t portend better results in the future.
Bowker
He has had a tremendous year, substantially increasing his walk rate. Does anyone have any thoughts on whether he can sustain this, or even whether this improves his stock? I know he has put up huge numbers in the Pacific Coast League, but his walk rate can’t only be due to league context.
Jorge Bucardo
Should be a top 20 prospect this year in my opinion.
man, thank god Thomas Neal broke out this year….
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
YAY!
Neal before Zod!
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by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 4, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
RafRod
is showing good plate discipline for someone who turned 17 just over a month ago. The power will come with time.
Bumgarner
Does his lack of strikeouts concern people?
Yes
matthewpouliot - "Still not sure which is more rare: the unassisted triple play or Francoeur taking two pitches to start the AB."
by Player To Be Named Later on Sep 4, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
yes
though if you have velocity and movement, that’s not as big a worry. does he still have velocity and movement?
by wcw on Sep 4, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
re
This is correct. I’ve seen nearly all of his starts in Connecticut and his fastball has been sitting in the 89-90 range all year.
Dan Runzler
I know what you’re thinking….Who the hell is Dan Runzler? The power lefty reliever made his debut for the Giants in a tight game last night and blew Jody Gerut away on three pitches. Molina said his 96 mph fastball had so much movement he didn’t even bother calling for anything else. Runzler started the season in low A and systematically moved through through high A, AA, AAA, and now the Giants posting a sub 1 ERA in every stop.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502130
Runzler has been awesome
The Giants have good depth at relief pitchers with Runzler, Casilla, Stoffel & Joaquin.
Grab Some Pine Meat!
Ishikawa
John, how does one try to analyze a promising prospect who struggled initially then started figuring things out but his poor start weighs down on his overall numbers?
Ishikawa started out really cold, horrible, but basically since Bochy gave him a public kick in the pants on May 9th, he has hit .282/.344/.445/.790 with 9 HR in 220 AB. Now, to me, that is relatively OK numbers for a 1B who plays very good defense, I thought, but his poor start early relegates his overall numbers to be, as you put it, “not enough bat for a starting firstbaseman.”
Obviously, that is all his doing, but at what point does one decide that he was struggling to learn to hit in the majors and had turned the corner versus deciding that no corner was turned and that it was all just a lot of up and down performances?
And even that batting line is hiding some batting oddities. He has been like Barry Bonds at home, but Bobby Bonds Jr. on the road: .353/.401/.562/.963 with 7 HR in 153 AB at home, .156/.230/.215/.445 with 2 HR in 135 AB on the road. And he actually was hitting much better since May 10 when he was starting regularly, in the mid 800 OPS. Since Garko came along, his hitting as well as his playing time have took a big hit.
And I guess that is another point I have struggled with. How much weight does one give sporadic play that prospects inevitably play? Do we greatly mark down Frandsen because he can’t buy a hit in limited play and AB, or count his good body of performances up the minors and in AAA? Is there any way to evaluate a player statistically when he gets so little play? Is it then more scouting driven?
Thanks, if you are able to get to this.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"Let's go get them in 2009!" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 14, 2009 7:34 PM EDT reply actions
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