Dewey Finn VS King Billy Royal: Ranking the Pitchers
by King Billy Royal on Sep 3, 2009 6:47 PM EDT
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PrintDewey Finn and King Billy Royal have decided to rank the best players at each position in the minor leagues. However, after spending days trying to come to a consensus, both men agreed that this attempt was futile. Therefore, King Billy Royal and Dewey Finn have decided to go head to head and let the community decide who has chosen the better players at each position. The main purpose of these lists is to generate discussion (similar to the crystal balls) so please keep the comments civil. Today we will examine the top pitching prospects.
The following are some important notes regarding the criteria we used to determine who is eligible:
*Current prospects at the Major League level were not taken into consideration.
*Rankings on the assumption that the player will remain at their current position long-term.
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
*Some of the prospects have been re-evaluated since the release of the DF & KBR Top 25 list.
*2009 Draftees are not eligible for the lists.
King Billy Royal:
- Madison Baumgarner (SFG) - Outstanding fastball to go along with developing secondary stuff gives him the potential to be an ace.
- Kyle Drabek (PHI) - There is a reason that the Phillies refused to include him in a package for Roy Halladay.
- Christian Friedrich (COL) - His fastball/curveball combination makes him one of the most unhittable pitchers in the minors.
- Wade Davis (TAM) - Major league ready starter reminds me of a young John Lackey.
- Martin Perez (TEX) - I have been high on Perez since I first wrote about him last year. Arguably the most upside of any pitcher currently in the minors.
- Jenrry Meija (NYM) - High 90's fastball to go with an impressive splitter. Also Dewey Finn's love child.
- Jarrod Parker (ARI) - Would be higher if not for injury concerns. If his elbow injuries subside he will soon lead Arizona's rotation.
- Casey Kelly (BOS) - Does he continue to start or does he move to shortstop?
- Jordan Lyles (HOU) - Has done everything that can be asked of an 18 year old. His success should translate well to High A.
- Matt Moore (TAM) - He throws some of the nastiest stuff in the minors but he still needs to harness his control to reach his potential.
Dewey Finn:
- Jenrry Mejia (NYM) - Possesses possibly the best pure stuff of all pitchers in the minors.
- Christian Friedrich (COL) - Will challenge Tim Lincecum for NL Strikeout titles and win some.
- Wade Davis (TAM) - Has the stuff and build to be a frontline workhorse for the Rays.
- Kyle Drabek (PHI) - Can become a dominant starting pitcher with his arsenal of pitches.
- Madison Bumgarner (SFG) - A lack of a true secondary pitch prevents a higher ranking.
- Jordan Lyles (HOU) - If he continues pitching the way he is, might be #1 at the end of 2010.
- Jason Knapp (CLE) - Better stuff than some ahead of him, but needs more consistency.
- Andrew Cashner (CHC) - Successful transition from RP to SP, nearly unhittable at times.
- Bradley Holt (NYM) - Secondary pitches have improved, AJ Burnett upside potential.
- Matt Moore (TAM) - Needs to cut down on the walks, but a deadly 1-2 FB/CB combination.
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Graduating 5 guys who would otherwise be top 100 prospects tends to put a dent in a system.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Who cares?
They’ll just trade them in a few days to replenish the system.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
I really wish this would go away and die
Partly because it’s stupid, but mostly because it’s just irrelevant.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
+ INIFINITY
It’s dumb and completely innacurate. All it does is show ignorance and sheepishness (Im tired).
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
It's a fucking joke
Get over yourself.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
That was a bit harsh
But honestly, my post was quite obviously not serious, and don’t give me crap about perpetuating stereotypes as we’re talking about a baseball team.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
Sarcasm can be tough to pick up on the internet.
They really need a sarcasm font, to get rid of all confusion.
Founding member of the Eric Patterson fan club.
I understand this
But was PaulThomas under the impression that I actually thought Oakland would trade Cahlill/Anderson in a few days?
If not, then he was aware of my satirical intent, and was just being a stiff, which bugged me, especially because I was insulted as a result.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
KBR was an easy choice here.
As I’ve been doing, here’s the top pitchers from my top 100.
1.) Madison Bumgarner, SF
2.) Chris Tillman, BAL
3.) Brian Matusz, BAL
4.) Mat Latos, SD
5.) Hector Rondon, CLE
6.) Jhoulys Chacin, COL
7.) Daniel Hudson, CWS
8.) Carlos Carrasco, CLE
9.) Wade Davis, TB
10.) Christian Friedrich, COL
11.) Tim Alderson, PIT
12.) Jake Arrieta, BAL
13.) Kyle Drabek, PHI
14.) Jordan Lyles, HOU
15.) Junichi Tazawa, BOS
16.) Jeremy Hellickson, TB
17.) Neftali Feliz, TEX
18.) Martin Perez, TEX
19.) Casey Kelly, BOS
20.) Zach McAllister, NYY
21.) Casey Crosby, DET
22.) Matt Moore, TB
23.) Jarrod Parker, AZ
24.) Jason Knapp, PHI
25.) Ethan Martin, LAD
Now, this list is now a month old, and there are definitely some things I would change (Perez higher, Alderson slightly lower, removing Parker, placing Mejia around #20). Overall, though, this is a pretty good depiction of my thoughts on pitching prospects. I guess I just differ in philosophy from KBR and Dewey most when it comes to pitchers.
just needs development time
I think he can be Lincecum-esque
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
You can't really...
compare anyone to Lincecum because he is a one of a kind pitcher. The only pitcher who is similair is a young Pedro Martinez.
true
But I just think that Mejia’s best two pitches compare favorably to Lincecum’s.
Mejia just needs time to harness his stuff.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
i dont agree with that,
but as a mets fan its awesome to hear
you can think that
But you’d be wrong, wrong, wrong.
At that age, Lincecum had 2 plus-plus pitches and a third solid average pitch that turned into a plus-plus pitch in it’s own right within 2 years.
Meija . . .does not have that.
I hope you DO realize that by saying that his pitches “compare favorably,” you’re saying that they’re better than Lincecum’s?
lincecum
He was 21 his junior year of college, 20 during sophomore year, 19 during freshman year. He had a late birthday.
I might’ve been jumping the gun slightly on the scouting report, but his raw stuff was still better.
Not to be lost in this, of course . . .is Dewey (or anybody else, for that matter) saying that Meijia has better pitches than Lincecum?
lincecum had 2 plus pitches in HS?
wow he should have went 1 in the 03 draft then
?
I wouldn’t take that phrase to mean better. In my experience something which compares favorably is not quite as good as that to which it’s being compared but is rather somewhat inferior with a chance to be as good if things break right. In other words, this comparison favors Lincecum while still holding promise for Mejia.
by blackoutyears on Sep 4, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I would
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/favorably
Beyond it being intuitively the opposite of what you’re describing (if A and B have the same thing but you say that what A has compares “favorably” to that of B, don’t you think that implies a “favoring” of A rather than B?), the VERY FIRST listing of “favorably” according to the dictionary is:
1 a : disposed to favor : partial b : expressing approval : commendatory c : giving a result that is in one’s favor d : affirmative
The fourth definition makes no sense in this context, but just substitute each of the other three into “Meijia’s best two pitches compare favorably to Lincecum’s” and I think you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about.
Sorry
Didn’t mean to leave you hanging. It’s a nuance, but I believe the definition you posted is more appropriate in a vacuum, not a situation involving comparison. Favorable and favorably simply imply an affirmative response, e.g. to rule favorably in a decision unless there is a comparison at hand. I’ve certainly seen the phrase used the way you imply, but I’ve more often seen it used to indicate what most here are saying, which is that A is better, but B is extremely good and has similar, if not equal, merit.
by blackoutyears on Sep 14, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think that’s the sort of pitcher Mejia will be if he reaches his ceiling.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
+1000
Let’s see some proof behind the hype. Remember Gammons said 2 years ago that Henry Rodriguez had the best “stuff” in baseball. How’s that workin’ out!
by Patriotreign3 on Sep 4, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
This ought to be an object lesson in the fact that "stuff" is not everything
Anyway, given his strikeout totals, the notion that Henry Rodriguez has the best stuff in baseball is by no means outrageous. His problem is the fact that his control is so bad that he makes Carlos Marmol look like some kind of corner-painting control artist.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Agreed
Plenty of scouting reports have Rodriguez’ FB as one of the best around, and the slider is a plus pitch when commanded. He’s still young by RP standards too. Lots of time left for Henry Alberto Rodriguez.
by blackoutyears on Sep 4, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think PT was exactly being positive there
If somebody’s control is worse than that of Carlos Marmol, basically you might as well have the guy trying to pitch blindfolded while facing center field.
voted for dewey because he didn't have bumgarner #1
but i want to take that back, because he doesn’t even Perez ranked. wtf?
1. Perez
2. Friedrich
3. Moore
4. Lyles
5. Drabek
6. Mejia
7. Hellickson
8. Rondon
9. Davis
10. Bumgarner
its incredible that Hellickson and Rondon made neither list
while I have a few qualms with your list
You utterly blew away what KBR and Dewey offered.
This is far closer to my personal rankings than either list. Cheers
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
by gorilla_baller on Sep 3, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not a fan of Hellickson
I don’t think his stuff will translate to more then a backend starter. Rondon almost made me list but I don’t think he is top 10 material.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 3, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Went with Dewey on this one...
As I share many of his thoughts. Where would you guys place Zach Britton on a list like this? 12-15?
Britton and Withrow
both outside my top 50, but on the cusp i think. i need to read/hear more scouting reports on them first
I think Britton is a consensus top 100 prospect....
Probably in the 80-100 area, dudes got power stuff from the left side…Hard not to have in the top 10 IMO.
withrow
Scouting reports good, lots of Ks, it’s the rest of the package that should give pause.
control, health
Control isn’t really that hot . . .a walk more than every 2 innings in A ball. And I’m still not convinced about his health yet. If he can make it through the first month or two of next year I’ll feel much better about him.
Still a guy with helium, but not sure how far that takes him for the moment. Is he among the top 10 pitching prospects? Can’t really see it right now.
yeah
its his first year of pro ball… he will improve next year and then he;ll be top 10 or even better.
no, it isn't.
He was drafted in 2007. He missed almost all of last year with . . .wait for it . . .arm issues.
Withrow
If by arm issues you mean missing half the season with a fluky cut on his hand. Get your facts straight. When he came back he had some arm problems but the big thing was that he cut his hand grabbing a snorkel mask, that doesn’t make him injury prone.
sure thing
http://dodgers.scout.com/2/856046.html
“It was tendonitis in the shoulder, the elbow – a little bit of everything. It has been frustrating,” he said. “Spring training went well and my arm felt fine. This is a good start. Hopefully all the injuries are behind me.”
And year before:
“Withrow, a 19-year-old right-hander out of Midland (Tex.) Christian High School, was the 19th overall pick last year and signed for a $1.35 million bonus. He was limited to only nine innings in six professional games after being drafted because of concerns with his elbow.”
I didn’t say he was injury prone, I said that injuries were a concern for me. Obviously two very different things. The snorkel thing was fluky and I didn’t think twice about that one, but he was still shut down in 2007 and again in 2008 when he started pitching again. Given that he spent almost all the time between those two instances not pitching for a different reason, I don’t see a reason to think that his arm wouldn’t have gotten weird on him in 2008 no matter when he started pitching.
Britton
Probably in the 15-20 range. I didn’t know much about him until recently. Very underrated.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Its amazing how guys like Erbe and Britton can be passed over....
With the ABUNDANCE of pitching talent in Baltimore’s system, many even blue chip quality prospects seem to be discarded. Hopefully as Matusz and Tillman make their mark on the minors, the spotlight will shift to these young guns.
Another guy to consider: Stolmy Pimentel.
I am a big Pimentel fan
He isn’t near top 10 in my opinion but he is still a damn good prospect.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 3, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Sleeper pick: Tyson Ross
Once he finds his control, watch out. NASTY stuff.
Another A's sleeper
Arnold Leon, he’s been doing very well this year in AA.
"I feel like we are sending Danny Haren for Mulder all over again." - Cardinal fan on the Matt Holliday trade
"But at this time of year, two plus two doesn't always add up to eight. Sometimes, it equals four." - Geoff Baker, Mariners beat writer.
never heard of him
Decent numbers tho.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
I was tempted to vote Dewey because there is no way Madbum is the best pitching prospect in baseball anymore. For what it’s worth I don’t think there is a clear cut number one, but I’m positive of the guys who are vying for that top spot that Madison Bumgarner’s name is not amongst them.
Dewey also omits Jarrod Parker. Yeah, the injury concerns are legit, and if that’s grounds for not including him, I can understand that.
But I’m abstaining from voting at the moment due to the lack of Hellickson on either list. Per fangraphs Hellickson misses bats at an astonishing rate compared to his peers. That bodes extremely well for him. If he can’t stay in a rotation (and there’s nothing to say he won’t at this point) then he should easily slot in at the back end of a bullpen.
Also, I like Rondon too much and it pained me to not see his name on either list.
So yeah, abstaining this round fellas. But if someone put a gun to my head and said “choose,” Dewey would have my vote.
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
Rondon & Hellickson
Are both very similar and remind me of Brad Penny. Back of the rotation guys IMO.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Brad Penny has a career 4.19 ERA.
He also bears utterly no relationship to Jeremy Hellickson.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
shame on you for using ERA
you should know better than that.
the similarities are a mid 90s fastball that is too straight, good control, lacking above avg 2ndary.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
How about his 3.99 FIP then?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
fine
Hellickson MIGHT have mid-rotation potential. Happy now?
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
he DOES have mid rotation potential say it
you may not think he is as likely to reach it as others do, but hes definately got it in him to become at least 3 starter
You're right
It’s potentially the case that he will only be a mid-rotation starter.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Have you actually seen Hellickson?
You’re not describing the same pitcher I’ve seen.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
+1
I was a little hesitant on Hellickson before this year (with justifiable concerns), but he’s taken a leap this year from being a solid pitching prospect to being an excellent pitching prospect. Even more impressive is that he’s made that leap while spending some serious time at AAA. This isn’t just a guy making a name for himself in a small sample size against inferior competition . . .he’s just flat out dominating batters at the threshold of the majors.
The question to ask now is, is he a grade A prospect or an A-? I can’t decide.
GGT's
1. Christian Friedrich
2. Martin Perez
3. Jeremy Hellickson
4. Julio Teheran
5. Madison Bumgarner
6. Kyle Drabek
7. Jordan Lyles
8. Matthew Moore
9. Jarrod Parker
10. Casey Kelly
11. Jenrry Mejia
12. Kyle Lobstein
13. Hector Rondon
14. Wade Davis
15. Randall Delgado
Dewey Finn
Did you see my scouting report on Mejia’s start I attended. Threw one good curve the whole night and that splitter is his changeup which is a plus pitch. Curveball is maybe average(good break, no consistancy in it).
It flashes plus, the curve.
But it’s not there yet.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
ya...
Consistency is an issue for sure. Sometimes he is just flat out filthy.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Davis does not have #1 upside
at best a 3 and likely a long relief guy to me, he didn’t impress me at all when I charted him and is a two pitch pitcher.
SHS'
1. Martin Perez (otherwise would be Strasburg or Tillman, Matsuz)
2. Kyle Drabek
3. Hector Rondon
4. Jenrry Mejia
5. Christian Frederich
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Matt Latos
8. Jhoulys Chacin
9. Daniel Hudson
10. Wade Davis
11. Jarrod Parker
12. Matt Moore
13. Julio Teheran
14. Jordan Lyles
15. Jeremy Hellickson
H.M. Casey Kelly, Jason Knapp, David Bromberg, Arnold Leon, Arrieta and Alderson
-Neftali Feliz would sure rank in the top 5 if he was an option
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 3, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions
I like this list.
Except Drabek at 2 is for sure excessive.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
No Jeremy Hellickson
Fail.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Hellickson reminds me of James Simmons
And that is not a good thing.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 3, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
People swing and miss at Hellickson's pitches.
A lot. Even though he puts them in the zone.
He reminds me of Dan Haren, which is definitely a good thing.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Minors leaguers swing and miss
Majors leaguers won’t.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 3, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, see, that's just not true
Swinging strike rate correlates quite well between the majors and the minors.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'm not sure I'm buying all the Hellickson hype,
but why are minor leaguers missing his pitches at almost double the rate they’re missing the pitches Wade Davis throws?
Tools Whore
Its Haren's nasty splitter
That makes him so effective. Hellickson doesn’t have that pitch. A good fastball, but for major leaguers, it’s the easiest pitch to hit.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
His splitter is good but all his pitches (minus a near neutral curve (per 100 pitches)) are all positive run-preventers per fangraphs
I’m guessing that his splitter plays off his fastball command. You keep a fastball low in the zone and then throw a splitter low in the zone that stays down and you’re going to miss an awful lot of bats and the ones that hit it aren’t going to do a whole lot.
Leave that stuff UP and you’ve got a whole different situation on your hands. A 91 mph fastball up in the zone is going to get hit a long way.
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
by gorilla_baller on Sep 3, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Disagree on the comp
On Simmons, I’m totally with you. I felt a two pitch starter, who is a right, and the 2nd pitch is a change is unlikely to have success. But Hellickson has more than just two pitches, and he has at least above average command and control.
I really thought Hellickson would hit a wall this year, rebound next year and then be ready, but Hellickson has surprised a lot of people. Generally, people are higher on his stuff than they were last year, but I haven’t heard why.
Improved movement on change
And improved consistency with curve
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
How do Hellickson and Simmons relate?
I’m really not sure that either you or Dewey know anything about him.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Easy
Both have been overrated by you. ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 5, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Bromberg?
Where would you guys place David Bromberg, FSL pitcher of year? What’s his ceiling looking like?
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clarification request:
why should anyone care what two anonymous losers think?
Do we have to do this on every fucking thread?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 4, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Classy
No one is forcing you to read this. Your comments really aren’t needed.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 4, 2009 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Fail
Agree with whoever said he couldn’t vote for either of you because Hellickson was omitted. I loved what he did last year, but admittedly had some reservations about a full year at the AA-AAA level. Well, I’m sorry, but at some point results have to take precedence, and as far as evaluating prospects goes, I think we’re at that point.
As far as ranking him goes, you can temper your praise in any number of ways (i.e. straight fastball, major leaguers won’t swing and miss), but to leave him entirely out of a top 10 is pretty egregious. I don’t think anyone on either of your lists has seen competition above AA, and while I don’t hold AAA in such high regard to make that a requirement for prospects proving themselves, there is something to be said for having dominated at every level that your other rankees are at, plus one higher.
It’s taken nearly two full years of this kind of performance from Hellickson for him to start to really get recognized. Ignoring his results at this point (mind you, results coupled with at least good, and sometimes very good, scouting reports) is to me a clear sign of prospecting jumping the shark.
agreed
Hellickson is the minor league pitcher most likely to be an above average major leaguer. 22 year olds don’t dominate AAA in this way and then end up overmatched in the bigs. The floor is very very high. That’s worth a hell of a lot.
by AgitationStation on Sep 4, 2009 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions
yea Hellickson has been really good throughout his minor league career
and now he is just destroying AAA, his ERA is a little high and has given up some HR’s (most runs against him have been late in his starts after 90 pitches) but he is getting 15-20 SS’s a start while getting K’s and being efficent.
HRA will always be his hobgoblin.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
yea
I don’t really get the arguements against his “stuff” I’ve been watching/following the Durham Bulls since 2002 and Hellickson has the best stuff of anyone I’ve seen in a Bull uniform or an opponent, including David Price.
let it be known that I consider the ability to locate in with what I consider “stuff” having a 120 MPH fastball means nothing if you can’t throw it for a strike.
Justin Verlander has the best "slider" in the majors
let it be known that I consider a fastball to be a “slider.”
SS doesnt matter one bit in the minors...
when he gets to the bigs, they will spit on those breaking balls in the dirt and high fastballs…and while he can throw a fastball down the middle and get away with it in the minors, he will not in the majors.
Mejia has been unlucky in AA though
.352 BABIP but his BB’s per 9 is 4.19 but his K-Rate is 9.54.
thoughts on mike montgomery
been awesome all year and even better in high-a. first full season as a pro. i think he deserves more mention. his raw stuff is only going to get better and he’s showing very good polish for a guy who was more basketball than baseball in HS.
baseball rules.
He did a bang-up job with the Golden Bears last year...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Personal list
(Counting players with no ML experience whatsoever, or Feliz-Tillman-Matusz would probably be 1-2-3)
Mejia
Perez
Friedrich
Drabek
Hellickson
Parker
Davis
Bumgarner
Moore
Lyles
...Friedrich
I like Friedrich quite a bit as a fantasy talent, but there is no reason he should be above the following pitchers: Kyle Drabek (performing at a higher level), Madison Bumgarner (same), Carlos Carrasco (performing at AAA with good tendencies), Hector Rondon (same, without the tendencies), Jarrod Parker (the stuff just isn’t on quite the same level), Matt Moore (he’d be higher if the Rays didn’t take it so slow with prospects) and Martin Perez (just behind Strasburg on my lists).
Friedrich’s pretty raw as a college pitcher. He absolutely dominated Lo-A because they can’t hit curves, and he has a top 3 curve in the minors. Same with Hi-A, though a little less so. The K/9 is absurd but let’s see it at higher levels before we make him the best pitching prospect in baseball.
Raw?
Umm, my understanding was Friedrich was a relatively polished pitcher with 4 at least average pitches, and the curve beign plus. Why he can be higher than:
Drabeck – Injury history, plus stuff, still having issues with control
Mad-Bum – Tougher to argue because of how good he was last year, but if his decrease in stuff isn’t just an anomaly, then there is an argument
Carrasco – Easy. I really like Carrasco, but he can’t seem to be the dominant(ish) pitcher his stuff warrants because it never is all working. Carrasco, unfortunately, is looking more like Simmons with his FB/CH combo w/o a good breaking pitch.
Rondon – Who I think is criminally underrated, but Friedrich arguably has better over profile, especially the lefty part
Parker – Arm injuries for a pitcher are death. Especially if you consider Parker’s more slight build
Moore – Rays take it slow for a reason, prospects need time to develop. Moore may be better eventually, but right now, friedrich is the superior prospect
Perez – Only one I’ll agree that clearly seems to be above Friedrich
friedrich
I was pretty shocked that the Rockies actually started him in Asheville . . .his best attribute is his command of his excellent curveball. I was thinking that he was a good candidate to start in AA as coming out of college, he didn’t look like the sort of guy who was going to have much if any difficulty with A ball hitters.
None of this is to minimize his upside (which is quite considerable).
Just because a guy is at a higher level and having success
it doesn’t mean he’ll have a superior career to someone a level or three below him.
Sure
But it does mean less risk involved.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Hey Dewey
As a Mets fan I appreciate the ranking but don’t you think Holt is a little high? His struggles on AA tell me he’s a reliever.
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Sep 4, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions
Holt
His struggles at AA show me his secondary pitches aren’t there yet. He’s totally got the stamina and body type to be a starter.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 4, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Those who have watched him point to lack of FB command right now as the key reason for his struggles, not his secondary pitches.
Is that true?
I honestly hadn’t heard much since his AA call up.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 4, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Holt
I actually made this list several weeks ago. I will admit that I am slightly concerned about Holt now. He has struggled in AA, and also hasn’t pitched over the the past couple of weeks. Hurt? Shutdown?
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Holt
He’s pitched a few times I think. They might be trying to keep his innings down so they can send him to the AFL.
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Sep 4, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Good find
Thanks
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Sep 4, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Holt
had a monster July in AA (34 K, 6 BB in 34.1 IP), then a horrible August before being shut down.
Problem was with his FB — wasn’t throwing as hard and with much less movement/explosion. Attributed to mechanical problems, but I think the innigns total may have contributed.
How could a month or two of starts tell you anyone's a reliever?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Personally
I’d go Friedrich as the top pitching prospect. Plus performance, seems fairly polished, reports suggest excellent upside/potential.
Anyhow, I like voting, so I voted, although I agree with some of the abstain comments above. I wanted to vote Dewey as he had Friedrich at 2, but I’m just not sold on Lyles, Cashner (1 plus, freaking excellent fastball, 1 pitch with plus potential (slider) but not there, and a developing change doesn’t strike me as top 10), Holt as top 10 material. I also think Wade Davis is too high, but that goes for KBR’s list as well.
That said, rankings are mainly to get discussion going, and these lists have done that. I have no idea what I’d do for a top 10 list, although as doublestix brought his name up, I think Mike Montgomery deserves some consideration. Duffy’s not in the top 10, but I was mildly surprised that no one has brought him up. I know Montgomery has had a great year, but there’s still a part of me that prefers Duffy over him.
BA / Royals
In a BA chat the other day, it was mentioned that the guy who does their Royals team rankings (J.J. Cooper) has Duffy over Montgomery at the moment.
Josh G (Sacto, CA): Who is a better LHP for KC: Mike Montgomery or Danny Duffy?
J.J. Cooper: I’ll go with Montgomery because his stuff is better, but both are pretty good.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2009/268837.html
i’d take Monty also. over anyone in the KC system.
baseball rules.
I would rank Montgomery higher right now
I just can’t get that feeling out of me that Duffy may end up being the better pro. Granted, I’ve got nothing to base it on, other than some random gut feeling, and I also haven’t followed the Royals system as much this year.
How would you rank the Royals top 5 right now? Something like Montgomery, Hosmer, Duffy, Moustakas, Melville would be my blind guess at it, but again, haven’t follwoed as close this year. Actually, I might ponder Duffy over Hosmer.
it changes every day, haha
Montgomery, Moose, Hosmer, Duffy, Myers would likely be my order right now. With Melville, Lough, Bianchi, and Lamb after that.
baseball rules.
Myers ahead of Melville?
Not to drag this off the DF/KBR post that much more, but I’m curious for your reasons as to why. I can understand it, but so far, Melville looks to have had a decent-solid start. Just a gut feeling on Myers?
doublestix would know more
But I think the general consensus is that Melville is projecting as a No. 3 starter at this point. Stuff is solid across the board, nothing exceptional. He’s a good prospect nonetheless.
It’s more an endorsement of Myers than anything . . .expert opinion seems to be very bullish on him.
something like that
i’m not sure it’s that Melville can only be a #3 (not that that’s a bad thing…), but it’s just that he’s shown me this year he’s a lot more raw than I and others thought. he’s got some work to do mostly with his delivery and repeating it. Tim has ended up with more than a few really lame starts like his last one when he walked five guys in three innings. still a good prospect, just not elite right now.
but yeah, it’s an endorsement of Myers. he’s got the tools to catch, very very athletic and has one hell of a bat. i think i’m bullish here because i expected him to struggle out of the gate with the bat. he’s coming from a small private school where he was facing 75 MPH (at best) fastballs. now he’s jumped straight to the Pioneer league where’s he facing mostly just drafted college players. very impressive what he is doing.
baseball rules.
montgomery/duffy
It’s a fairly simple comparison IMO . . .assuming good health, Duffy’s the safer bet to contribute in some way (and not just because he’s at a higher level), Montgomery has better upside. Given that they’re still A ballers, might as well go with the upside guy.
As for the top 5 . . .good question. I’m finding myself a little surprised to say that it’s probably Eric Hosmer, who despite his very mediocre numbers this season has managed to do so while putting the ball on the ground at an obscene rate. With a few tweaks his bat should come alive, and his defense looks VERY promising.
A lot of nice prospects in there, but with the way things have gone for Hosmer and Moustakas this season, I’m not sure that anybody is really “elite” at this point. Both of the aforementioned prospects certainly have that potential, but both of them also have some questions in their games to answer before they deserve that praise. Fortunately both of them are also very young.
sorry then
I was going off what I saw in a chat the other day and hadn’t seen the new chat. Thanks for the information.
don't worry about it
i saw the same thing you did. i had just luckily read the new chat. :)
baseball rules.
Sort of a Sleeper
Rudy Owens. Dominated the minors this year, but does not get the credit he deserves. His fastball has reached 94 at times with good movement to go along with one of the best change-ups in all of the minors. Also has an average breaking pitch.
Forgot to mention he is left handed...
that should mean something to go along with the rest that I said.
Hellickson followed up his 8IP, 1H, 2BB, 12K performance
with a 7IP, 3H, 0BB, 9K night with 20 swinging strikes.
Tools Whore
so that Hellickson guy pitched again tonight
7 innings 3 hits 0 r 0 bb 9 K, 21 swinging strikes on 107 pitches.
at some point you have to give this guy credit for productiong.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
Ynoa is a future hall of famer and isnt even worth a mention !!
yet some of these low upside pitchers like hellickson, tazawa, hudson, alderson, etc make the list?!?!
You will all look back at sept 3, 2009 and half of these pitchers combined wont achieve the greatness of Ynoa
Seriously dude, quit the homerism.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Sep 4, 2009 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
How is anyone who hasn't played in the majors a "future hall of famer"
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Most future hall of famers haven't yet played in the majors
But it tends to be rather difficult to predict who is one until they do
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
That's what I'm saying, obviously. No need for snark.
The label is just impossible to justify, is what I’m saying.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Lets ease up on the Hellickson love
After further research, he seems similar to Ian Kennedy.
Ian Kennedy career minor league: 9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Jeremy Hellickson career minor league: 9.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
I'm sure we can find players that compare to everyone in the top 10 that end up being said
I would imagine most pitchers that have a 15-20% SS rate and don’t allow baserunners turn out to be pretty good. I had a post a couple weeks ago on DRB comparing K/IP to WHIP and how it compared among the top pitching prospects and Hellickson was among one of only a couple who had a higher K/IP than WHIP and in the 3 starts since I made the post he has only improved those numbers. Hellickson may end up being a bust but at some point he has to be given credit for what he is doing.
I imagine if he was 6’4 instead of 5’9 he would be easily considered a top 3 or 5 pitching prospect.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
did you and KBR discuss this like 20 minutes ago?
It seems really weird that you two would both invoke Ian Kennedy’s name to knock Hellickson a whole 4 minutes apart.
But anyways. It’s still a crappy comparison. But I’ll give you a chance. Why would I associate Hellickson with Kennedy? Your comparison criteria is evidently “right-handed pitching prospect who struck out a bunch of guys and didn’t walk many guys” . . .
We actually did
Dewey and myself were downtown chatting about baseball all night. Also our criteria is "right-handed pitching prospect who struck out a bunch of guys and didn’t walk many guys" AND has good but NOT GREAT stuff. Hellickson has a great chance at being a backend starter and that should be good enough for most people.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 5, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
how can you
how can you see 9.9 k/9 and 2 bb/9 as a negative. Dumb as all hell.
not a negative at all
I just don’t think it equals guarenteed greatness, as I pointed out with Kennedy. That’s all.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
So from what I understand you two have come to the consensus that Hellickson doesn't have elite "stuff"
now there are all kinds of stats and things you can say that show what a guys “stuff” is and how good it is. One of the things I would think is that if a guy had only average stuff compared to above average/elite stuff would give up more hits b/c it would be easier to square up his pitches.
So one would think that Hellickson with his average stuff would prolly be allowing opponents to hit at least .200 off of him prolly .225-.230
well in 9 AAA starts (SSS, but not so small it can be totally discredited) he is allowing opponents to hit .157 against him.
That number drops to .127 in the first 5 innings of starts and in the first 3 innings it is .090.
now I’m no scout and am still fairly young (23) so I haven’t been around baseball forever but I would say if AAA hitters are having that tough a time getting hits off of a guy his stuff is probably a little better than average and probably closer to elite.
but than again it is just one stat and one person’s perception of the stat so take what it is worth. You guys do a good job with the list and I really enjoy reading them and the discussions that follow, I just think you guys are missing on this guy.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
We very well may be missing on him
However, that is the fun of prospecting. If everyone loved the same guys it wouldn’t be much of a discussion.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 5, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran
Both have been pitching quite well to close the season, and both have outstanding stuff. I realize they’re young and playing in lower-level leagues this year, but where would you put these two on a pitchers list? Top 20? Top 30? Top 50?
Q
What’s the difference between Teheran and Delgado in terms of stuff? Just curious.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
not too sure about delgago's stuff
need to read more before i place him
everything i’ve read about Teheran is very positive
What exactly is the top tier this winter?
I’m going through the pitchers in my mind, and there doesn’t really seem to be a standout group of guys to me. Seems like a bunch of guys bunched at the top. I’d probably peg Friedrich first, but I don’t love him and I can understand people having some doubts on his potential to dominate.
Short of it is, I’m not real sure what the top tier is this offseason. This seems to be a year where the top pitchers are all bunched fairly closely together. I mean, I honestly don’t see a significant (keyword there) difference between say, the top few and guys that people would discuss around 11-20, and some years, there seem to be a wide gap. Not sure the gap is that big this year.
+1
I completely agree my friend. So many names are interchangeable.
A case can be made for several different variations of “Top 5”s in my opinion.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
the question above the poll should read
Which list sucks less?
i dont want to put it the time to reasearch it, im not gonna release some half assed list. I feel like they dont actually think the stuff they say, they just wanna inspire debate.
Classic...
The good ol’ “this list sucks, but I refuse to state my opinion” approach. You should become a member of the Republican party!
Could you at least tell us why you disagree with their lists? Personally, I think that both lists are fair representations of what BA and BP’s top ten pitcher lists are going to look like. For the first time in many years, I don’t think that there are a consensus top 5 pitching prospects.
Also, if you don’t like what you read, move on. No need to try to ruin it for the rest of us (many of whom are having a good time debating the merits of Hell-girl).
here u go man , i dont want more trouble
1. Strasburg
2. Perez
3. Bumgarner
4. Mejia
5. Hellickson
6. Parker
7. Moore
8.Drabek
9. Lyles
10. Rondon
11. Friedrich
3 Rays in the top 8
and Torres, McChechren, Lobstein, Barnese, and Mcgee aren’t slouches either.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
First off...
Strasburg wasn’t eligible for our list. Also, how is Friedrich so low?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 6, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
no problem
i ranked eleven…. Friedrichs so low because hes 22 and in high A which is old compared to the guys ahead of him on this list. he was supposed to be very polished so seeing him dominate the lower levels wasnt enough to put him over any of the other guys. Im skeptical of what he does in AA so ill wait til then. He is in my top 11 though so hes getting some credit for his work this year
i dont like no hellickson, i think wade davis is too high, i think friedrich is too high, i dont think holt or cashner should be on either list
Check out W.Davis vs Tigers today
Simply delicious.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
RE: Holt & Cashner
Is your concern that you don’t think they can be starters long-term or you don’t like their stuff?
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
on cashner
for me, it’s an issue that cashner’s development just isn’t completely there yet. He lost the feel a bit for his slider this year, by most accounts, and the change, while improving, is still a work in progress. Can a guy get away with a ridiculously good pitch (Fastball), average/inconsistent secondary offerings as a starter? Sure, but it’s just hard for me to put Cashner as top 10, particularly when I don’t think he’s the top Cubs pitching prospect (he has the highest upside, but I rank on readiness as well). I think there are other Cubs fans out there that would place Cashner in 2nd for Cubs pitching prospects as well.
btw
in saying that, I think Cashner’s probably a top 30 pitching prospect. In general, I think people still underrate the Cubs top 3 pitching prospects.
I've never claimed to be a scout
I’m just a die-hard baseball fan. I try to follow major leaguers and minor leaguers as close as I can. Based on information available, I form an opinion. I understand that in some instances what I believe goes against popular opinion, and thats totally okay. However, please don’t accuse me of pretending to be a scout. That is not the case at all. I have nowhere near the access to resources or level of knowledge that real scouts do.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Hellickson's flyball tendencies
Is nobody concerned about this???
Kid is gonna get whiplash from all the HRs he will allow in the AL Beast division.
Obi-Wan Kenobi said to Dewey Finn: "You were the chosen one!"
Although BPIP data in the minors should be taken with a grain of salt,
Minorleaguesplits says he’s more of a groundball pitcher. His HR rates are high, but some of it (especially last year in AA) is just being unlucky (18.8 of his flyballs last year went for HR’s). I think he’ll be fine.
Everbody's Nobody
first of all
im sorry for accusing u . i dont like cashner cuz his numbers arent that great : 100.1 ip this year only 75 ks and 42 bb s. thats isnt very good, and i dont see how that compares to a lot of guys behind him ( hellickson being the easiest example). holt doesnt have the same gb tendencies cashner does and hes already struggling in AA , i think because of a lack of secondary stuff.
Bumgarner
Hellickson
Mejia
Drabek
Friedrich
Perez
Parker
Rondon
Moore
Lyles
HM: Kelly, Knapp, Montgomery, Teheran, Hudson, Withrow, Arrieta
I just don’t know how people can rank Perez over Bumgarner. I mean Bumgarner put up better numbers in every way last year in the same league, was only 8 months older, and has now proved it in A+ and AA.
Perez gets way too much credit for just being in AA. He’s only had one good start in four, isnt striking out guys at a very high rate and probably doesn’t belong there. If he were still in low A, doing what he had been doing, would anyone have him No. 1?
Yeah, I’m concerned about Bum’s K rate and lack of secondary pitches, but theres a ton of upside, and for such a young pitcher he’s also very much a sure thing. Even if the secondary offerings dont develop he’s a dominant closer with that fb and command. If everything comes together, he’s a Cole Hamels or Clayton Kershaw type(not comparing anything about the pitchers, just the level of performance). Sure he was overrated last year, but that just goes to show how inherenlty unreliable low-A numbers and scouting reports can be…
My List:
Strasburg
Bumgarner
Parker
Hellickson
Mejia
Moore
Friedrich
Drabek
Lyles
Withrow
Everbody's Nobody
Jordan Lyles
I’m mildly surprised to see so many people put him in the top 10. In saying that, I think he’s a good talent, and as noted, I’m not sure the difference between the top tier and the 2nd tier will be all that much this offseason (heck … I haven’t thought about it, but I’m not sure the difference from 1 to 30 will be all that much). Don’t get me wrong … I think Lyles is good. Top 10 good, though? Not sold. I don’t think Lyles ranks that much better, if at all, than say (because I’m a Cubs fan, the names are easier for me to come up with) Jay Jackson or Andrew Cashner, and I don’t see either as top 20 (I’d probably put both in the 21-30 range right now).
great post
Bravo. Amazing.
Maybe I’ll end up being dead off on Lyles (and if I’m off, that means he’s elite – as I’ve noted in my comments, I just simply am not buying Lyles as a top 10 pitching prospect talent as of right now). I’ve seen enough kids dominate Low A with a solid breaker and a good fastball, and he’s still working on his 3rd pitch, while the breaking ball could be more consistent by most accounts. He feels like a 2/3 type projection right now, with certainly the potential to get better, but I’m just not sold that what we know of Jordan Lyles right now, at this moment in time, makes him an elite prospect. Let’s see how those ratios hold up as he moves up the ladder.
Put it this way … if he can put up what Jay Jackson did at High A this year (a 10+ K rate and a sub 1 bb rate) next year in High A, then I’d be the first one to buy him as an elite prospect (and just to be clear, I don’t think Jackson is a top 10 pitching prospect either, as noted, I think top 30). Heck, if he can put the ratios up that Cashner did at A+ this year, I’ll be impressed (7 ish K rate, 3 bb rate).
Guess that’s the fun about the debates … waiting to see. I may be dead off, but seriously, that was one ridiculous response daveh.
side comment
I imagine part of daveh’s response is due to my bringing up Cubs prospects to use as comparisons. As noted, that’s because I’m a Cubs fan and know the Cubs prospects better, so they were first to come to mind. This wasn’t meant as a comment on Cubs talent in general – just a simple comment that I’m not completely sold on Jordan Lyles being as elite, as of right now, as some folks think.
But I would add that I get the feeling that the Cubs system won’t get that much love this offseason, despite some evaluators calling the Cubs top 5 prospects “studs”, as Kevin Goldstein did earlier this year. This was relatively early, so there were still some questions on Carpenter, who should’ve dominated Low A as he did, and this was before Brett Jackson getting drafted.
we’re talking about Low A versus High A and AA. Again, would I rank Lyle higher? Probably, but I don’t think the difference is all that much. Has Lyle’s scouting report changed? If not, Cashner has better stuff, and he was working on not only a general pitch count this year, but also on specific pitches.
Again, this isn’t meant to toot Cashner’s horn. I think he’s top 30, no where near top 10, although if grading solely on “potential”, maybe. I just am not sold on Jordan as a top 10 pitching prospect yet (as noted, I don’t even think Cashner is the Cubs top pitching prospect).
kgs most recent report on lyles , from june
and with a fastball that’s consistently been clocked up to 94-95 mph as well as a rapidly improving power curveball, signs are good that he’s going to rack up plenty more (strikeouts)
so
basically what I remembered. it’s a similar scouting report of Cashner’s (plus-plus fastball, potential plus slider that’s been inconsistent, and a developing/improving changeup, no real mechanical issues).
again, i’m not saying Lyles is bad. I want to be very clear on that. But I’m taking a wait and see on how dominant Lyles is. He was working against Low A bats this year with a solid breaker, and he also did it without a general pitch count nor a specific pitch count. Let’s see how he holds up as he moves up. I’m just not willing to buy him as an elite arm. Maybe he turns out that way, but right now, I see more of a 2/3 arm with potential to get better. Good, but I just think he’s getting overhyped a bit due to ARL, which is important but overstated, IMO.
And again, we’re talking a comparison to Cashner, who I think is the number 2 arm in the Cubs system. My personal opinion of Cashner is that, while he has an immense ceiling, I wonder if he has a Papelbon type career (worked as a starter, gets called up for the pen and is too good to move from there). As a starter, I see him more as a number 2 guy as well.
Only time will tell, which is the fun with all this. One other comment I’m going to repeat is that, I don’t think the difference between the top 10 and the 21-30 arms is going to be all that different this offseason.
Reply button
If you use the reply button people will have a better idea to who you are referring.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 7, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I've never understood
How can you tell if somebody else is or isn’t using the reply button?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Well unless "Cashners" was an insightful post....
I am guessing he meant to respond to somebody else.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 7, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly...
Next time just respond to your original post so people know what to what you are referring.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 7, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Hellickson another 12 K performance tonight in 5 2/3
prolly could have gone another inning if it wasn’t for 3 errors that helped extend innings. He did give up 2 HR’s, 3 r 3 h 3 bb 12 K was the final line with 17 Swinging Strikes.
At some point a guy who allegedly doesn’t have above average stuff is going to stop striking so many guys out right? Now 44 K in his last 4 starts.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
he also threw 109 pitches
so those 17 swinging strikes arent a lot especailly in AAA
so he prolly didn't have his best stuff tonight
if that is his stat line on an “off” night, I’ll take it.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
Huh?
17 SS in 109 pitches is a lot. That’s 16% SS. For the record, Buchholz last 3 years at AAA his SS% was 17.1 (great), 11, and 13.3. Hellickson’s 15% so far in AAA is very, very good. Of players with more than 750 pitches thrown, the best figure in the league is 15.7% (David Hernandez). So I’d venture to say Hellickson’s near 16% last night is very good. I’d also say his second highest SS% in the INT proves his stuff is better than decent.
HRs
I really think this is gonna be a problem for him at the MLB level.
http://deweymoney.blogspot.com
Dewey's Picks for Sports Betting
giving up HR's isn't a good thing and Hellickson is shaky in that department
that being said if he gives up 2 solo HR’s a game instead of 4 or 5 more base hits and a couple more walks and gives up 2 runs that way is there much of a difference? Basically saying while it isn’t a good thing, I’m not too concerned b/c most of his HR allowed are solo shots.
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
Voted Dewey
due to my dislike of Bummy and an innate Mets’ bias.
My list (Feliz, Latos, Tillman, Matusz all ineligible):
1) Jhoulys Chacin
2) Wade Davis
3) Jenrry Mejia
4) Jake Arrieta
5) Matthew Moore
6) Martin Perez
7) Jordan Lyles
8) Jeremy Hellickson
9) Hector Rondon
10) Michael Bowden
I stop by every now and tehn to poke around
and quickly disappear after reading nonsense like this:
Christian Friedrich (COL) – Will challenge Tim Lincecum for NL Strikeout titles and win some.
The constant projections of prospects to become the best in the league is what makes prospect followers look irrational. If you put Tim Lincecum in Colorado he’d be hard pressed to win any strikeout titles since the ballpark conditions suppress strikeouts (namely because the atmosphere screws with breaking balls).
Tautologies are fun too:
His success should translate well to High A.
If that wasn’t the case would he be on the list in the first place?
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
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