Mike Pelfrey revisited

by kershaw_equals_stud on Sep 28, 2009 10:25 AM EDT

I apologize if this subject was visited recently and I missed it. I'm just curious what the general consensus is on Mr. Pelfrey. 2008 he goes 13-11 with a 3.73era and 1.36whip through 200.2 inn. A good 110k/64bb ratio. This year the K's and BB's are both up a bit but he's giving up way more hits and runs and has a 5.08era and an awful 1.52whip. I have him in my keeper league and I have him for 6 dollars for the next two years if I so wish. With his 2008 season I am tempted to use one of my 15 valuable keeper spots. So is he just having a sophomore slump and will bounce back next year or is he just not good... Perhaps its the Mets awful luck this year that has sapped his desire. It'd be hard to be motivated on that team this year... Anyways if all of you well eduacted people would give me your opinion that would be great!!

Thanks.

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Pelfrey

His FIP has been generally lower than his ERA all season, making it seem like the Mets crappy defense is hurting him. At the same time, he’s just been awfully hittable, especially when in the stretch. I still have faith that he’ll be a decent pitcher in the years to come.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 28, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

The Mets have the worst infield defense in baseball this year.

Mike Pelfrey is 13th in the majors with a 50.7 GB%.
You do the math.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Sep 28, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

At the risk of being cliche...

…Pelfrey was neither as good as he looked at times last year, nor as bad as he looked this year.

The bad news is that he simply doesn’t strike out enough guys (plus he walked too many this year) to be a true, front line starter. The good news is that his ground ball tendencies make him a good bet to be a serviceable #3 for quite some time. As squid hints at, the Mets’ infield defense has to improve next year, and Pelf’s 66.4% strand rate is certainly going to improve as well.

So not sure exactly what you’re looking for, but I’d bet that 2010 Pelfrey gives you something like 200 innings, 125 strikeouts, 70 walks, an ERA in the 4.40 range, and probably 12 or so wins. Whether that’s worthy of a keeper spot depends on you and your specific league.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 28, 2009 1:18 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think his ERA ends that high

the only reason I think his FIP has risen to 4.38 this year was because he was forced to throw a lot of pitches in the beginning of the year and his arm is worn.

Frankly in FIP he’s still a Top 50 pitcher I believe.

by METSMETSMETS on Sep 28, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions