Promising Player Projections 2010
by Mets2k9 on Sep 25, 2009 11:51 AM EDT
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PrintI love projections. For whatever reason, despite their arbitrary nature, they are fun to read and help gauge multplie opinions of players. So, I've decided to write this post. This is an open form for people to post projections for promising players for their 2010 seasons. I will start with a few of my favorites. Feel free to critique, alter, debate, etc.
.305/.350/.500
85 R 25 HR 90 RBI 5 SB
3.30/1.28
16 W 170 K 20 QS
3.75/1.35
12 W 180K 15 QS 5 Holds
.310/.370/.530
95 R 32 HR 105 RBI 3 SB
3.20/1.30
18 W 210 K 22 QS
.290/.360/.550
100 R 33 HR 100 RBI 20 SB
.320/.400/.600
90 R 37 HR 120 RBI 2 SB
3.65/1.32
14 W 185 K 17 QS
.265/.340/.490
80R 30 HR 90 RBI 10 SB
These are just a few fun ones to throw out. Go ahead, give it a try
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LOL
Hahaha that gave me a good chuckle.
by ChalupaCabrera on Sep 25, 2009 5:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Votto seems the most optimistic
Ive always been a fan, but I think that’s on the high side for power.
I think I agree with that Billy Butler projection.
+1
love the guy, but I don’t think he’s good fo 37 HR.
I think the Butler power projection is aggressive too
Though it’s within the realm of possibility
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by OldProspects on Sep 30, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel somewhat the same way
But I wanted to do a guy who blew others out of the water. Votto will be 26(?) next year, so he’s getting into his prime years. I feel like this year, with his depression related struggles, his power and performance was down. Yet he still has hit 22 home runs and is slugging .542. To me, with a full season of health and with Bruce batting behind him, he could hit that many
Chris Coghlan
.305/.375/.475
90 R/ 15 HR/ 75 RBI/10 SB
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
+1 love the guy
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 26, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Brett Anderson
3.38/1.25
15 W’s 165 K 20 qs 205 IP
I'll take the under
on that whip.
Since July, he’s got a 1.08 WHIP.
in fact, if you just take out his first 5 atrocious starts, he’s got a 1.22 whip.
I think, assuming he’s healthy, Anderson can be a 1.20 whip guy with a 4:1 K:BB next year.
I hope so..
I was being very conservative. Think he becomes one of the top 6 or 7 P in baseball next year?
OOf
Look, I’m a fan of Bruce, but look beyond the BABIP to find out WHY it was so low. His LD rate was atrocious (13%) and he had a a .78 GB/FB ratio.
I like steak.
I would only knock about .10 off of each slash line
297/372/493
I think he gets a little better each of the next four years . . .
I could see this.
Young’s had a lot of bad luck this year, and has shown all the tools he needs to hit those projections. He just needs to get his head together enough to use those tools.
Young’s 12.3BB%, 30.5K%, and 17.6LD% are almost identical to the numbers Mike Cameron is putting up this year, and has consistently over his career. Young’s precipitous drop in HR/F is the only thing keeping him from being a dead-on match, but it’s pretty unreasonable to think he can’t that get back to where it was at age 23.
you think he'll only hit .522?!
seriously…what the heck is wrong with you?!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Sep 25, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
the worst part
is the 201 SB….bobby NEVER runs…so heyward will only steal when he goes himself, so anything over 140 is BS….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Sep 25, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
while i agree the hanson projection above is on the pessimistic side, this is utterly absurd…not that such a post is uncommon from you, though….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Sep 25, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
some braves
hanson
2.95/1.22
190 IP, 186 K (i won’t predict wins as they’re a team-loaded stat)
heyward
.287/.352/.466
400ish AB, 21 HR, ends season on a tear after early struggles
schafer
.274/.344/.432
430AB, 11HR, 28 2B, 7 3B, moves mclouth to left by june
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Fowler/Kemp/Verlander/Carmona
290/380/470 17 HR, 41 SB
320/390/570 34 HR 31 SB
3.22 ERA 221 IP 265 K, and One Cy Young Award
Some ERA over 6 with a 1/2 K/BB ratio
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Daniel Murphy
280/360/430
15 Homeruns, 75 RBIs, good D at first.
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Sep 25, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions
That's pretty optimistic.
I can’t really see him being very good.
.270/.320/.450
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
definitely doable.
Murphy actually makes pretty good contact, and has flashed decent pop and good discipline. He’s still learning to be selectively aggressive. When you look at his pre-and-post-ASB splits, he sucked with fantastic discipline in the first half, and has hit for big power with terrible discipline in the second half.
Just for comparison of who the Mets have and should have
Jeff Francoeur
.260/.285/.380
15 HR
4 SB
Shitty defense
1 Country CD
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Andre Ethier
42 Homeruns 120 RBIs
.290/.370/.575
120 RBIs
not impossible
A lot stranger things have happened. Davey Johnson went from 18 to 40. Brady Anderson (steroid suspect) made a huge leap. I know those are isolated examples, but Ethier doesn’t have to make a huge leap.
His numbers seem very similar to Jim Edmonds around the same age, even k rate and walk rate wise. Edmonds hit 33 at 25 but never even hit 30 again until age 30, although that is partly because he missed time. He ended up hitting 42 twice. Sean Green also showed power at a younger age, but his bating lines early in his career were not dissimilar to ethier’s. Green hit 42 or more 3 times, including 49 in LA.
I don’t know that it is a good bet that Ethier hit 42. But given his age and trajectory, it wouldn’t be all that shocking for him to do it.
But even the most optimistic person is saying more likely than not, it's not happening.
So in terms of making a prediction, you’re totally off base.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
i would say possible....
but not likely.
If he played for the Rockies or virtually anyone in the American League I would be more optimistic, but in the NL West where he plays 107 games in Dodger Stadium, San Diego, and San Fran it would be a tough environment to make a jump of 8-10 homers in a year
Considering your comps went back 40 years or so...
I’d say that’d have to be a bit of a surprise.
Shawn Green
I misspelled his name, but Edmonds and Green, the actual comps, didn’t go back 40 years. Davey Johnson was just an example of a much larger spike. Ethier doesn’t have to make that much of a leap. Green went from 35 to 42 to 49. Edmonds a high of 33 to 42. Ethier has 31. I wouldn’t predict it. I’d say 35-37 may be his top out.
Maths...
In 700 PA, to get a .575 SLG% with 42 bombs…
Roughly 260 times reaching base to get a .370 OBP. Either’s been holding steady at an about 10% walk rate. So in 700 PAs that is 70 walks. So 260 – 70 is 190 hits and hbp. To get to a .290 average, that’s 183 hits, leaving 7 in the miscellaneous category of hbp and whatever.
Okay, so 183 hits and 42 are homers, or 141 non homers. If we assume those are all singles, then we’re at a .490 SLG% already. We know that Ethier has been running a 39% XBH rate in his career, so we know that at least 71 of his hits are extra bases. Since 42 of those are homers, that leaves only 29 hits for doubles and triples. Let’s say, for laughs, he hits 3 of those for triples and that leaves 26 doubles. Let’s see… total bases = 341. At bats is 700 PA – 77 (walks + hbp and whatnot) = 623 at bats.
That comes out to a .547 slugging . In order to get to a .575 SLG he’d have to have 358 (+17) total bases, which is at least 7 more doubles and an extra triple. But, then again, that would throw the rest of the maths out of whack.
So what you’re saying, essentially, is that Ethier will go from averaging 6% of his plate appearances ending up in doubles to a little under 4%, meanwhile his home runs will go from 3.4% of his plate appearances to 6%. Oh, and he still wont somehow get a .575 SLG%.
Weird.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 27, 2009 6:32 AM EDT up reply actions
i cant believe i wasted 30 seconds of my life reading that
and then posting this comment,,,,
wow
you only say that because he absolutely killed you
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
None of it is BS.
Although I WILL admit I fudged the maths on the average. In 623 ABs he’d need only 181 hits to get to a .290 average. So to keep the other things relatively neutral, add another 2 walks or 2 miscellaneous on base things.
It’s just unlikely that Ethier would have the 3 slash lines you mentioned while having 42 bombs. It doesn’t fit into his general skill sets. If we add in the extra requirements for him to get to .575 SLG% with 42 home runs, he’d look like this:
.303 / .383 / .575
Now, of course, there could be other explanations. He could just go completely bonkers with his extra base hit ratings and still get a .290 average. It can happen. But based on what we know of Ethier so far, this is the most likely way to get to a .575 slugging % with 42 bombs.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
alright then
but im sure you can say the exact same for every single person who posted..
by matthewmafa on Sep 28, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course!
I just picked on you because of the 42 bombs thing. At first I thought that 42 bombs and a .575 SLG% was way too ridiculously low. I mean, we’ve seen it before. Paul Konerko is a master at it. But in my mind, I kept thinking that 40+ homers should get to a .600 SLG% easily. Turns out, with what we know of Ethier, I was wrong. It doesn’t fit Ethier’s mold to do so either, but it is possible.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
so exactly how many doubles will he have to get to be a .290/.575 hitter with 42 home runs?
Hmm...
Let’s see…
Again, assuming 700 PAs, we could reach this in a lot of ways, but let’s stick with what we have above.
623 at bats to get a .290 average is 181 hits. Though, honestly, that doesn’t work as it actually comes out to .2905 (which would be .291 average). So let’s go with 624 at bats, because 181 hits in 624 at bats is a legit 290 average (.29006). All we’d have to do is increase the rate of extra base hits from the 39% he’s gotten in his career so far.
In 624 at bats to get a .575 SLG% requires 359 total bases. 42 home runs is 168 total bases, so we need to find 191 more total bases out of 139 hits. That would be 43 doubles, 3 triples, and 93 singles. Or, an XBH rating of 48.6%. That’s some serious extra base hitting.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
But that only works because we took OBP out of the picture.
Since we have 624 at bats now, we added an out at the expense of a non out. So we have to take one of the 77 walks + other on base things away. Thus, his OBP would drop to .369. I suppose you could live with that.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Er, oops. .367.
Still, manageable.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 28, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
alright so my projection of him hitting
.290/370/575 should have been
2.90/365/530 with 38 homers
or is that still too much you guys think=?
by matthewmafa on Sep 28, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
/shrug
I’m not going through all that math again.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 29, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
it's math
Not BS. It’s not like he just came up wiht the numbers, he thought it out, and it made your prediction look bad. Your prediction is backed up by nothing other than “he got this many, so he can get more next time!” while the other arguments is backed up by actual numbers and logic.
Hanley Ramirez
.340/.410/.550
28 HR/115 RBI/100 R/25 SB
MVP
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
um...
how is hanley in this conversation…he’s a pretty established player
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Sep 26, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions
daric barton
maybe he’s another september superstar and its a fluke or he’s improved after turning 24 in august
.290/.375/.430/17 hr. not great, but solid numbers with above avg defense at 1b. Its too bad he cant play at 3b or 2b or even going back to catcher which would make those offensive #’s more passable at those positions.
Makes sense to me...
He does seem to have turned the corner – I think those numbers seem reasonable.
by wonderphenom on Sep 26, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
The homers seem a touch high
But otherwise I buy it. And an .805 OPS is more than passable at any position
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by OldProspects on Sep 30, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Albert Pujols
.441/.602/.864
75 HRs, 195 RBIs, 195 Rs, 140 SBs
/jokes
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
All Possibilities
Except maybe the SB. And runs. And RBI. Slash Stats/HR are possible.
/onlyslightlysarcastic
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Nolan Reimold
.285/.365/.480
22 HR, 87 RBI, 69 Runs, 13 SB
For all the Orioles' prospect information and scouting, check out
www.oriolesprospects.com
by Jordan Tuwiner on Sep 25, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions
thats kinda optimistic.
But I do like Reimold.
.275/.350/.440, 18ish HRs. Basically what he was this year but scaled for his high BABIP but also giving him some credit for improvement skillwise.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
i like that prediction
minus 13 SB’s. but not out of the question at all.
He had 8 stolen bases this year so i think he will get 5 more with abotu 200 more ABS
and squid he had 15 this year in 358 AB so you dont think he can get 7 more in about 200 more AB?
For all the Orioles' prospect information and scouting, check out
www.oriolesprospects.com
by Jordan Tuwiner on Sep 28, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Wieters . . .
Batting average is in the ballpark.
RBIs will be higher than 90; Orioles have moved him up to third in the lineup and with Jones back in the lineup next year Wieters will bat 3rd, 4th of 5th, With Roberts, Jones and/or Markakis in front of him, I expect he’ll be closer to 100 ribbies.
My projection:
20 hr 100 rbi .310/.365/.490
Buster Posey
something like .275/.355/.455 with 15 HR
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
will he get enough playing time next year
to get 15 homers?
Yes
I’m pretty sure he’s going to be the opening day catcher at this point. This is, fwiw, one of the only things I’m optimistic about the Giants making the right decision on.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
How could this guy not be on here yet
Stephen Strasburg
33 GS 32-1 32 CG .96 ERA .42 WHIP
120 swings where batter spins around 360 degrees and ultimately falls down
72 scoreless innings in a row to begin career
has multiple 20+ K games headlined by a 25 K performance vs. Marlins.
Gets pulled with 2 outs in 9th of last start to raucous standing ovation which leads to fans storming the field and carrying Strasburg on their shoulders to the nearest pub. The rest of the team follows close behind and Natinals forfeit the game. Sadly, even with such a legendary performance, the Natinals still cannot climb out of cellar in NL East
more ks then innings pitched?
verlander didnt even do that till this year
Lincecum, Scherzer and Volquez all did it in their first full seasons
It’s much easier in the NL than in the AL
lincecums a freak
and the others had time to work on their stuff in the minors
strasburg without anytime in the minors will strike out 162 in 150 innings you think?
by matthewmafa on Sep 26, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg is considered a "freak" as well
If he’s as good as the hype has made him out to be, I wouldn’t put it past him
for what its worth
As a west coast guy I got to see both Lincecum and Strasburg pitch multiple times in college. My ASU Sun Devils played against both and had the unenviable task of facing Lincecum in conference play for four years, but I have to say that in college Strasburg’s stuff was noticeably better. Crisper, more explosive fastball, better breaking stuff- just better. And that’s no knock on Lincecum. On more that one occasion he mowed through our lineups, but Strasburg not only dominated, but he did with all the media scrutiny and teams gearing up just for him. Lincecum was very well respected, but he wasn’t even the best pitcher in the pac10 til his senior year
you also forget
despite the fact that he hasn’t swung the stick since he was in high school he posts a .410/.500/.850 line and is starting at 1b in between starts
Nobody has done David Price yet?
I would say 200 innings 180Ks 50BBs 3.4 ERA
Wade Davis:180 innings 180Ks 60BBs 3.6ERA
Hows that?
by thedudeofdudes on Sep 27, 2009 12:31 AM EDT reply actions
Adam Jones
.307/.365/.485
24HR/92RBI/11SB/82R
For all the Orioles' prospect information and scouting, check out
www.oriolesprospects.com
Colby Rasmus
.275/.340/.480
25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB
Rasmus will get everyday playing time(100 more ABs or so) and will crush righties. He’ll will struggle against lefties, though.
Love Rasmus
But his abilities vs. lefties will limit his overall slash stats. Like Skip Schumaker, Rasmus is worthless vs. lefties.
He had a sub .500 OPS vs. lefties this year and an .800 OPS vs. righties.
For him to get up to the .820+ OPS overall, he’s going to have to become mediocre (rather than horrible) vs. lefties, or Pujols vs. righties.
If we keep his slash stats steady vs. lefties, he’d have to put up the following line vs. righties to approach those numbers: .310/.380/.550
Even if we assume he can get up to a .700 OPS vs. lefties, he’d still have to put up about an .875 OPS vs. righties to get there – especially since if he improves vs. lefties, they’ll play him more vs. lefties where his #s still won’t be very good.
Carlos Gonzalez goes 20-20 with a slight chance at 30-30
Currently attempting to have positive thoughts.
HR/SB btw
Currently attempting to have positive thoughts.
by bballrox4717 on Sep 28, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll just post my take in (parenthesis) on the guys Mets2K9 gavehis opinon on
Matt Wieters
.305/.350/.500
85 R 25 HR 90 RBI 5 SB
(looks good)
Clay Buchholz
3.30/1.28
16 W 170 K 20 QS
(3.85era/1.35whip. 150k, 18QS)
Neftali Feliz
3.75/1.35
12 W 180K 15 QS 5 Holds
(4.5era/1.42whip as starter. 2.3era/1.1whip as reliver)
Billy Butler
.310/.370/.530
95 R 32 HR 105 RBI 3 SB
(subtract 30pts on slugging and hrs around 25)
Clayton Kershaw
3.20/1.30
18 W 210 K 22 QS
(doable)
Justin Upton
.290/.360/.550
100 R 33 HR 100 RBI 20 SB
(93r, 33hr, 108rbi, 23sb. .305/.373/.567)
Joey Votto
.320/.400/.600
90 R 37 HR 120 RBI 2 SB
(knock his slugging down by 20pts)
Tommy Hanson
3.65/1.32
14 W 185 K 17 QS
(looks good)
Ian Stewart
.265/.340/.490
80R 30 HR 90 RBI 10 SB
(if he can hit .265 then it’s a good projection)
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