Brett Cecil Vs. Luke Hochevar
by John Sickels on Sep 22, 2009 2:06 PM EDT
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PrintI'm still struggling to catch up on my work, so I'm going to throw some discussion questions at you until I can get back into gear.
Today's Topic: Brett Cecil vs. Luke Hochevar....who is a better bet for success going forward? Who will be better in 2010? Who will have the better career, and why?
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I voted Cecil.
And I’m someone who’s relatively high on Hochevar. The key number, in my mind: Hochevar is already 26, while Cecil is only 23.
I think Hochevar projects as a strike-throwing, grounder-inducing #2/3 — he flashed some brilliance this year, and he just needs to pitch more consistently. Cecil’s ceiling is higher — he’s left-handed, struck out 9.0 per 9 innings while spending only one full season in the minors, and keeps the ball on the ground. Higher ceiling + younger age = better future (at least in my opinion).
flashed brilliance is right...
good lord…he’ll suck for extended periods of time and then roll out some amazing starts. 13 K’s vs Texas, 3-hitter vs Cincy, 3-hit shutout vs Chicago.
baseball rules.
Cecil
As a Jays fan, I’ve seen most of his starts thus far. Unless he can remove his HUGE arm-wrap, he’ll have to go to the pen. Hitters really see him well by the second time through the order.
by ofsticksandbats on Sep 22, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
Hochevar, far and away
Better stuff. Cecil’s stuff just isnt as impressive and there is a decent chance he ends up in the pen still. Hochevar is probably not going to be a real front of the rotation guy, but he’s flashed dominant at times and looks pretty good.
Hochevar gets more ground balls and throws harder. I really dont understand why anyone would vote Cecil, to tell you the truth. Cecil was better than expected and Hochevar worse than expected, but Hochevar is still a better pitcher and a better bet going forward.
2009 FIP
Hochevar: 4.42
Cecil: 5.35
2009 tRA:
Hochevar: 4.75
Cecil: 6.15
I suppose Cecil might look better if you only looked at superficial things like ERA without looking at the underlying skill sets. That would be a mistake.
by alskor on Sep 22, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yup, that was it, I just looked at ERA to label Cecil a better pitcher.
I don’t think it’s fair to judge either player completely on the basis of their major league sample size yet — especially Cecil, who is a full 3 years younger, and has only thrown 93.1 major league innings. The reports on his stuff have been pretty good; his average fastball velocity is just 1.2 mph less than Hochevar, so it’s not like Hochevar throws that much harder. And while Hochevar’s managed to induce a few more grounders at the major league level (46.9% this year, compared to 42.6% for Cecil), Cecil garnered 60.6% grounders in his minor league career, so I expect his MLB numbers on that front to improve drastically.
And again… Cecil is 23. When Hochevar was 23, he was busy posting a 5.39 FIP in Triple-A, and a 5.12 FIP in a brief major league debut. It’s 3 years later, and he hasn’t really improved all that much.
The results are just part of it – I responded to them b/c I think people are making too much out of Cecil’s results, and specifically his K rates. Cecil’s stuff just isnt impressive. He’s a mid rotation guy at best, and his durability is a pretty big question mark. Hochevar is just better all around than Cecil. The only area Cecil has an edge on Hochevar is breaking stuff. Otherwise Id give Hochevar higher marks across the board.
haven't seen a ton of cecil
but his stuff was a bit underwhelming when i saw him. thought his slider would be better.
anyone know anything about his changeup progression?
baseball rules.
cant hitters see his change up before he throws it
because of the way his arm is out there.. before he delivers?
by matthewmafa on Sep 22, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I want to say Cecil, but I just can’t. other then Doc, all Blue Jay starters are jinxed. Burnett, Marcum, Listch, Janssen, McGowan and Romero have all been walking Infirmaries.
Romero
Didn’t suffer an arm injury in his professional career yet. His short DL stint this season was for a strained oblique muscle. He returned after the minimum (more or less). Doc has had his share of injuries over his career (forearm stiffness, broken leg, appendicitis), just never the type of serious arm injury that required 12 months down time.
Burnett’s injury issues were worse before he was a Jay than during his Jays’ career.
Considering that of the other four pitchers, two (Litsch and Marcum) were elbow related TJ surgery and the other two (McGowan and Janssen) were labrum injuries, I have to think that the injury run has been a fluke and not especially symptomatic.
by ofsticksandbats on Sep 23, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Got to go with Hochevar
With all those stats thrown out above, I’ll go a little different in my approach. Hochevar has been tipping pitches for 2 years now. The Royals are finally on top of this deal and with Hoch not tipping pitches, his numbers will improve. With that in mind, and all of those stats in your head from above, what will he do when not tipping pitches?
I really think he’ll have a “breakout” year in 2010 which will put him at the #2/#3 starter spot for KC behind Grienke. (who deserves the Cy Young by the way…)
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
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