Discussion: Disappointing First Base Prospects
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2009 11:32 PM EDT
40 comments
I finished the Rotowire Top 100 yesterday and Rotowire subscribers can find it by clicking here
Question for you: three first base prospects fell off the list entirely: Lars Anderson, Eric Hosmer, and Angel Villalona. of this three, which one do you think is most likely to rebound? In other words, if you could have one of these guys, which one would you pick?
UPDATE: I wrote this post without being aware of the current legal controversy (to put it mildly) regarding Angel Villalona. The reason I didn't know about Villalona's arrest was because I've been almost completely off-grid for the last week. Jeri had surgery two weeks ago. She's fine, but isn't allowed to do any lifting for the rest of the month. As a result, I have been doing almost nothing but child care and household duties, while also trying to cram in baseball stuff in when I can. I hadn't read any baseball news this weekend, and the post was based just on what Anderson, Hosmer, and Villalona had done on the baseball field during the regular season.
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Villalona
Probably shouldn’t get any votes considering he MIGHT be in a cell for the next 20 years.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by garrioch13 on Sep 20, 2009 11:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Suprised
I’m suprised the Giants moved him off of 3rd. Kids got a gun
" Tell me something Steve, How does a guy from Puerto Rico loose a ball in the Sun? "
by aaronb on Sep 22, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also got a big gut. The Giants are worried that he’s going to get so big that he can only play 1B.
The official statement is that the Giants moved him to 1B because they did not want to hold back him offensively by having him play 3B and worrying more about this defense.
Reportedly, Villalona still wants to play 3B and has been taking batting practice at 3B while he plays 1B. He reportedly is pushing hard for this.
He was rated as good defensively at 3B previously, so they could put him back at 3B at some point if he is still working out at 3B and keeping up his skills there.
But with Sandoval currently at 3B, VIllalona might just stay at 1B, assuming he’s innocent and returns to baseball.
Neukom: sign up Sabean for another two years!
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 1, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this sarcasm?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 21, 2009 12:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nope
From ESPN insider: An ESPN Deportes story says that according to information compiled at the crime scene, Angel Villalona was the shooter in a murder that occurred in the Dominican Republic over the weekend.
by cjc9387 on Sep 21, 2009 12:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I declare a holding of the horses
I am very reluctant to call it a “murder” without more information. He might (or might not) be a stupid 19 year old kid, but I’m skeptical that he’s dumb enough to go into any public place and just kill a guy for the hell of it.
He has lots of money and is obviously well known. I would be very surprised if there is not a lot more to this story . . .perhaps this was something done in self-defense?
by mrkupe on Sep 21, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I'm thinking.
but then again there are the cases of Ugeth Urbina and Ambiorix Burgos.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by garrioch13 on Sep 21, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
officially charged with murder today
by slickterp on Sep 21, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and officially
claimed he is innocent
by matthewmafa on Sep 21, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They always do.
The Coors Effect: Now with humidor!
by Tom (RFTN) on Sep 21, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Must be guilty, he got a lawyer
“they” always do.
by FreshStart on Sep 25, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Villalona will rebound quickest
in the Dominican Penal League.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Sep 21, 2009 1:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, yes, the dreaded DPL
Pitcher’s nightmare.
Bullets fly.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Sep 21, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most likely?
Anderson. Though Hosmer is still an exciting prospect.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Sep 21, 2009 1:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Given that this poll was created after the Villalona reports began circulating, I don’t get why he was included.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
by Adam Foster on Sep 21, 2009 3:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lars Anderson
He had a bad year, but he’s the only one with a track record of professional success. I wouldn’t object to having either of the other players in my system, but considering this is a question about being a good player rather than all-star, I don’t really understand choosing either of the other two over Lars.
by OldDutchPots on Sep 21, 2009 7:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
There are also the reports that Lars was playing injured for a lot of this year, which mitigates (to an extent) his poor 2009 showing. I’m in the group that’s saying his prospect status is way, way down, but I still give him a better shot than Hosmer to rebound.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 21, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dare anyone
to walk up to Villalona in a bar and tell him he doesn’t belong in John’s poll. I bet he gets the most votes, just from fear.
by gogotabata on Sep 21, 2009 8:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
to walk up to Villalona’s bars and tell him he doesn’t belong in John’s poll.
fixed
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Sep 21, 2009 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Angel Villalona has to be the answer doesn't he?
He killed a man in a bar fight. Murder makes for a very disappointing season.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Sep 21, 2009 8:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Probably should read more than the title.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Sep 21, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i go with Villalona
he looks like he really has that killer instinct.
ouch.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 21, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I say Anderson.
Of the three, he has the best track record in the past.
As for Villalona… let’s not jump to conclusions, I have no idea how the legal system works in the Dominican Republic (they didn’t teach us about Dominican law in law school) but I assume that there will be a trial before he gets convicted.
by Tom (RFTN) on Sep 21, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eric Hosmer
I will preface this by saying this is my opinion … so that being said.
Eric Hosmer is the better of the 3 prospects and has the highest ceiling (especially since Angel Villanova is in prospect limbo).
Fact #1. He was drafted in a very deep class of first baseman that includes Pedro Alvarez (he will switch to 1B), Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak, David Cooper, Ike Davis, Allan Dykstra and Brett Wallace. Anderson’s class was a weak offensive class and therefore more overhyped due to the lack of offensive prowess in that particular draft.
Fact #2. Taking Angel Villanova out of the equation, his potential power, plate discipline and glove rate higher than Lars Anderson. Hosmer has graded as a 80 on power (but has yet to manifest itself). It is not unusual for a HS power prospect to need more time before hitting HRs in the minors and I am basing my power opinion on other scouts more than my own personal accounts.
I am not discounting Lars Anderson skill-set, but in the end, I just do not see him as a potential elite first baseman.
If I had to compare the two prospects I could see in five years that Lars Anderson would be similar to a James Loney type player offensively and Eric Hosmer is more in-line with Adrian Gonzalez.
by bryeic on Sep 21, 2009 6:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very fun topic
I definitely have to agree with everything you are saying. I go with Hosmer too.
by sjkqw on Sep 21, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I voted AV
I’ve heard he can really kill the ball when he pulls the trigger…
by Dfarth on Sep 21, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lars
Gotta go with The Viking.
His .360 BABIP at 19 and 20 (Low-A, High-A, AA) isn’t just a product of luck.
Homie hits the ball fucking hard.
Hosmer has no track record of pro success.
In addition, Hosmer demonstrated the same contact issues as Lars in each of their respective pro debuts.
Coming out of HS, Hosmer was clearly the favorite, but otherwise, Lars is the stronger prospect.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Sep 21, 2009 9:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coming out of HS, Hosmer was clearly the favorite, but otherwise, Lars is the stronger prospect.
Not sure this is true – or if true, as much of a difference as it would first appear. Lars was generally considered a top first round kind of talent who was just absolutely unsignable IIRC…
by alskor on Sep 22, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to the 2009 BA Prospect Handbook: “Teams viewed him as a potential supplemental first-round pick, but Anderson had an inexperienced agent who didn’t understand baseball’s slotting system, and his $1 million price tag caused him to drop all the way to the 18th round. The Red Sox scouted him all summer and signed him in August for $825,000.”
by FI2 on Sep 23, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
something that nobody seems to have addressed here
Hosmer’s absurdly high GB rate. That’s really his biggest flaw at this point . . .it’s killing his power production and other rate numbers as well most likely.
by mrkupe on Sep 21, 2009 11:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I picked Villalona but
I would like to change to Hosmer due to the fact that he was given an A- before the season. To me an A- is a top 20 talent and I didn’t see that before the season and I for sure don’t see it now.
by Jay212033 on Sep 21, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
both
I see Hosmer and Anderson succeeding at the major league level. I believe Lars’ past success can be duplicated, and Hosmer has the raw skills to succeed.
by thebroman on Sep 22, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
anderson
one major thing stuck out to me, and that’s anderson’s shown he can do it in the minors before….we haven’t seen hosmer for a full season yet have the success that anderson has had in a full season league…
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Sep 22, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Like the Madden Curse and the Sports Illustrated Curse
Could we be witnessing the dark and dangerous conception of the John Sickles curse?!
by Mets2k9 on Sep 22, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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