Opinions on Bumgarner
by tedfordfan on Sep 2, 2009 10:13 AM EDT
52 comments
Has Bumgarner's status fallen this year a bit?
On the one hand, he's 9-1, throwing 106 IP, allowing only 80 hits, and has posted an ERA of 1.95, a WHIP of 1.03 and an FIP of 3.52 in AA while just turning 20 a month ago. This performance was following a very good month in high A ball, which was similar to his dominant season last year.
On the other hand, his BB% has risen (to a still good 7.9% in AA from 4% last year), and his K% has declined dramatically (from 29.4% last year to only 16.5% in AA ball this year - 23% in the one month at high A). Additionally, there are reports of decreased velocity, although he's still throwing a lot of innings and there doesn't appear to be any concern for injury (at least no more than for any other pitcher). He's not a GB pitcher (44% GB rate) and has a very low BABIP in AA (.243).
So how many of you are concerned about his progress this year? Do you think he's a top-10 prospect?
0 recs |
52 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Bumgarner is a borderline top 20 prospect, but I wouldn’t have him in my top 10. A K% below 18 is not something that is putting anyone in my top 10, particularly if you consider poor GB tendencies and some concerns over his repertoire and velocity.
by WrenFGun on Sep 2, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bumgarner
After being a consensus top 10, and even top 5 in most places, I probably have him out of my top 10 now, and in the late teens. You can’t discount his track record to this point, but the numbers you pointed out are a bit troubling. Another main concern is that some that have seen him pitch have pointed out his secondary stuff has been slow to develop. That is not a good sign.
by DJSlam on Sep 2, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it’s very strange that he’s been so successful without striking out anybody this year. I mean the guy never gets rocked, but he has not put up a dominant performance in AA either. I wouldn’t be too excited about his major league projection right now. He has time though, he’s very young
by loop on Sep 2, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think he was rushed to AA
he needs to work on his secondary stuff of course, i think it will take some time but he is still very raw i think it is just taking him awhile to adjust
by jarjets89 on Sep 2, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
So when he “adjusts” would you pencil him in for, what, 10-0 with a 0.75 ERA? Hes been the best pitcher in the Eastern league hasn’t he?
by casejud on Sep 2, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no maybe he ll strike out more than 6 per 9 when he adjusts
im not looking at wins and era , that s the whole point of this post ( people are down on MadBum cuz of his peripherals)
by jarjets89 on Sep 2, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marc Rzepczynski dominated the EL compared to MadBum
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
by gorilla_baller on Sep 2, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes he did
yea i just saw his stats in the minors im impressed. Whats ur point though
by jarjets89 on Sep 3, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK
But when Rzepczynski was 20 he had a 7.71 ERA in the Big west conference dude.
Bumgarner is a MILES better pitching talent than Rzepcynski.
by casejud on Sep 3, 2009 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d agree with that statement… i was simply responding to the statement
Hes been the best pitcher in the Eastern league hasn’t he?
My uncle says you've got a screw loose.
Your uncle molests collies.
by gorilla_baller on Sep 3, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares!! Buster is up!
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe. Maybe a little less now.
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Sep 2, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
About the velocity
I asked this in the last Bumgarner FanPost we had here, but never got an answer. Has there been continued reports of velocity being down, or is this still based off of one outing? Because I don’t recall seeing reports since that one game that support his velocity is down overall. That’s not to say that I haven’t missed them or overlooked them, but if they are out there could someone provide a link to them? Also, if his velocity remained down, that would have to indicate some problem right? Something the Giants staff would try and do something about, like shut him down?
Also, I’ve had this discussion with some buddies of mine in the last couple of weeks, so I’m curious to hear from anyone who has actually seen Bumgarner pitch this year. Is he using his secondary stuff more this year? Fangraphs doesn’t show pitch type data for minor leaguers, but I’m just curious if he might not be working his secondary stuff a bit this year that could lead to the increased BB rate/decreased K rate. I know the jump in league/talent factors in there too, but with the low hit rate I have to think he’s getting by with more than just his fastball. Double A hitters can hit a good fastball if they know that’s all you’re throwing. So like I said, anyone with first hand accounts it would be nice to hear what he’s throwing as well as if the velocity has continued to be down.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Sep 2, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw him pitch earlier this year...
…in San Jose, I think it was his last start before he got promoted. In any event…he wasn’t very sharp, did seem like he was showing much in the way of velocity. He hit one guy. I “met” him after the game; definitely a beast, in terms of sheer physicality. Looks like he has the potential to be a workhorse. But the experience of seeing him perform, at least on that evening, was underwhelming. Just didn’t seem like he was bringing it.
by royshowell on Sep 2, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and I saw him in AA
I saw him pitch the July 28 game at Bowie, and given what he has done on other occasions, that was clearly an off night when nothing worked. It was also the night where he lost it with the home plate umpire and was summarily ejected. Who knows what the problem was that night? Was it fatigue, a cold, who knows? The night defined the words "small sample size." I doubt that he threw 50 pitches total. He gave up 5 hits, including a home run to Steve Torrealba. He faced only 10 batters, and he hit the tenth guy with the pitch that started the row. That was also the night that a scout told one of my friends that Bumgarner’s velocity was off, and our eyeball of the notoriously inaccurate Bowie radar displays indicated that he was hovering in the mid to high 80s. Sometime in the last week or so Kevin Goldstein mentioned in one of his minor league updates that Bumgarner’s velocity was down, but he did not indicate the amount of speed he had lost. I doubt that the Giants would broadcast to the world that he has a health problem, especially if they think he will improve with rest. He is only 20.
zzard (Arlington, VA)
by zzard on Sep 2, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sub 2.00 ERA
Is Bumgarner the Fernando Martinez of pitchers ? Actually, it´s quite impressive that he´s managed to keep his ERA under 2.00 for a 2nd straight year – at age 19/20 at Double A.
I believe Detroit´s Rick Porcello can serve as a pretty good comparison to Bumgarner – even though he´s obviously a RH and has lesser command but better breaking pitches. Porcello only had 72 K´s in 130 IP in High A ball last year – yet he has managed to more than hold his own at a similar age at the big league level and – as of today – actually has 71 K´s in 128.2 IP for the Tigers.
The interesting question for the Giants will be:
1) Give Bumgarner another year at Double A in 2010 to work on his overall game – although he seems to have mastered the level ?
2) Bring him up right out of spring training 2010 and work him in as a 5th starter / middle reliever, sort of what LA did with Billingsley a couple of years ago ?
I certainly would rank Bumgarner ahead of any unproven 2009 draftee pitcher other than Strasbourg. And also don´t see any other LHP with the combination of performance, age & projection in the minors right now. Whether that makes him a top 10 overall, I don´t know.
by Doob on Sep 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Giants probably won’t have any reason to rush Bumgarner next year, with the top 4 spots in the rotation held down by Lincecum, Cain, Zito and Sanchez. It will be interesting to see whether they decide to start him at AA next season or move him up. It probably depends less on his overall numbers and more on what they think about the development of his breaking pitches.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Sep 2, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why do you have to be so mean?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Sep 2, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought I was rude?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Sep 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why do you have to be so rude about correcting me?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Sep 2, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wtf,
shikantaza.
And, Bumgarner’s season bewilders me, too.
The low strikeouts + low ERA makes no sense to me.
Hopefully, he’s just been focusing more so on his off speed stuff than his fastball.
The alleged decrease in velocity concerns me, as well.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Sep 2, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was not not kidding
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Sep 2, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think that jponry is best described as part bee’s knees and part cat’s pajamas… the mixture,evidently, has had the effect of making her very rude though.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Sep 2, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's fitting
seeing that both planned on going to UNC in the same year.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 3, 2009 5:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
1st round HS Pitchers in 2007 Draft..
rank these 4…
Chris Withrow
Bumgarner
Jarrod Parker
Tim Alderson
They are all in AA…
those would be my rankings…
by matthewmafa on Sep 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Withrow's gonna be a top 10 prospect a year from now
Withrow
Parker
Bum
Alderson
The fact that Chris Withrow is a 20 year-old striking out a batter/inning AA, with 13 pro innings coming into ’09, is phenomenal.
He also could very well have better overall stuff than Parker.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Sep 2, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Withrow
anyone wanna enlighten me to a scouting report or something? What’s his repertoire like?
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 3, 2009 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hes a right handed kershaw
93-96 on his fastball… power curve and a developing change up…
its his first pro year after missing last year with freak injurys.. like cutting his hand on a snorkeling mask… and he doesnt turn 21 till next year in april…
he also has good control vs RHB (2.43 W/9) but walks too many LHB (6.67 W/9)
by matthewmafa on Sep 3, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rick Porcello vs. bumgarner?
i dont think bumgarner and porcello are a good comparison. even though both had/have declining k rates in the minors, i dont think bumgarner is like porcello at all. porcello had extreme ground balls numbers, while bumgarner doesnt. in a way this is much more acceptable for porcello’s declining k rate than bumgarners
by iam2asian4u on Sep 3, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A talent to watch
for sure, he seems to have everything in his fastball down with velocity and location. Lack of true pitch to back it up causing some problems with his Ks.
In my personal Top 50 he’s a 34. Some of his numbers are eyepoppingly good, but many question marks remain
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 3, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Madison's K's in minor leagues
Madison Bumgarner 8.5 Per Nine Innings (272 IP – 256 K’s)
Johan Santana 9.2
Chris Carpenter 7.2
Brandon Webb 8.1
Dan Haren 9.1
Tim Hudson 9.0
Tom Glavine 6.1
Roy Oswalt 9.1
Freddy Garcia 8.0
Josh Beckett 12.3
Carlos Zambrano 7.4
Greg Maddux 5.7
Roy Halladay 5.9
Pedro Martinez 9.7
Cliff Lee 10.1
Mark Mulder 5.4
Andy Pettitte 7.4
CC Sabathia 10.4
Cole Hamels 11.5
I could go on and and on, but Im tired. whats my point?
a) There is more than one way to become a great pitcher
b) People just have no idea of how great of a TALENT Bumgarer is. To be able to have that kind of fastball location and the guts to attack with it- at that age- is AMAZING
c) Injuries are a concearn but that list of pitchers is a list of guys who are all time leaders in win PcT, guys who lead the big leagues in ERA, guys like that and he stacks up with them.
d) The guy who interests me most is Cliff lee because he K’d a lot more guys than Mad Bum i the same league- same age- but he also gave up way more homers and walks.
Which brings me to my next point- Madison stacks up pretty well with other great pitchers in Strikig out guys and THAT ISNT EVEN CLOSE TO BEING THE STRENGTH OF HIS GAME! He has advantages over even most of these great pitchers in control and keeping the ball in the ballpark.
I hope, I prey ( If I was a preying man) that he stays healthy because he is a generational type talent as a pitcher. I still think he’s one of the top 5 talents in all of the minor leagues.
Would I take Strasburg over him? Yes. Is he as awesome of a talent as Josh Beckett was/is? Maybe not. Or Sabathia, or Lincecum, or Cole Hamels? Well perhaps no. This is not a criticsm though. Cole Hamels is a better pitching talent than Tom Glavine was and Glavine is going to the Hall.
Only Madisons durability, and desire, and fate will stop Bumgarner from perhaps doing something like that but, the PITCHING ABILITY is there guys.
Peole said “wait til he gets to HIgh A- he wont get guys out with just a fastball”. then “wait til AA- then it’ll catch up to him”. Now “wait til the big leagues”. well, mark my words- he’ll do the same thing in the big leagues- If he keeps his arm right. Im keeping my fingers crossed.
by casejud on Sep 3, 2009 3:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You've reversed causation here
The question isn’t what percentage of great pitchers had high/low Ks per 9 in the minors, but what percentage of pitchers with high/low Ks per 9 in the minors go on to become great pitchers.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point of pitching
is to not give up runs, not to get strike everyone out.
I know strikouts are a sign of how dominant a pitcher is, but damn it seems like this site would rather a pitcher that pitches 5 innings, with 6 Ks, and 5 ER over a pitcher that threw 7 shutout innings with 2 Ks.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 3:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd much rather see that, yes
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
you have got to be joking. No one could be that dumb.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually...in the minors...yeah probably
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Sep 3, 2009 4:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless you are pitching in front of the shittiest defense in baseball
giving up 5 runs in 5 innings is not good pitching. No matter how many strikeouts you have.
You can dominate without getting strikouts.
Now this really doesn’t have anything to do with Bumgarner. I loved him at the end of last year, but if his velocity is down than I agree that his stock should go down. But nobody can tell me a sub 2 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP as a 19 year old is not dominating. No matter how many K’s he gets.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 5:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The guy striking out 3 guys per 9 is never going to get major league hitters out.
At least the guy with strikeouts has a chance.
by PissedMick on Sep 3, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice argument
“You’re wrong— and stupid!” With no warrants.
Don’t take up debate as your second career.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is no need to argue
You would rather Brett Anderson to pitch 5 innings with 6 Ks and 5 ER or would you rather see him pitch 7 shutout innings?
You just said you would rather more strikeouts even if it means giving up 5 more runs, and that’s beyond insane.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd probably rather see the latter most of the time, but that's only because I like seeing the A's win baseball games
and that outweighs the marginally worse impact that such a result has on Anderson’s future projection.
Right now, in a lost season? I’m absolutely taking the first one. No
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question.
Damn malfunctioning keyboard…
I mean, it’s not just that you’re wrong. You are, and that’s fine— plenty of people haven’t figured out DIPS yet, and either they’ll learn at some point, or they’ll keep being wrong. I don’t really care about that. If I had more time, I’d shred you, but given how busy I am these days, it’s really not worth the bother.
The repeated insults are getting pretty fucking tedious, though, I have to say.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I guess that should be expected
from the leader of the Daric Barton fan club. I love how you make a long ass post and then say you don’t have the time to "shred’ me. That is really funny. Considering that you think striking out batters and giving up a run per inning is better than throwing a shutout, there is no point in even trying to say anything because you are an idiot.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You think that was a long post?
That explains a lot.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For someone that has no time
it is.
And really I would love to see your sabermetric bullshit trying to explain how giving up 5 runs in 5 innings is better than giving up 0 runs in 7 innings.
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right now
i doubt that bumgarner could strike out a pitcher in the ML level…
by matthewmafa on Sep 3, 2009 4:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and how many times have you seen him pitch?
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in spring training against the dodgers...
i think he went something like 3 perfect innings striking out 4 including juan pierre (very tough to do) and manny..
by matthewmafa on Sep 3, 2009 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was before he sucked
screw him he is horrible. I don’t care if he get most hitters out and barely gives up runs, I want my pitching prospects to strike out 10 batters a game!!!!!!! /end sarcasm
by nyy601 on Sep 3, 2009 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but if you are a pitcher
you would rather strike someone out then let him put the ball in play…
balls in play have a chance to get a hit…strikeouts dont…
you would rather have a pitching prospect strike out batters…
there must be something crazy about bumgarner that his BABIP is so low… he must have some crazy movement on his fastball or something
by matthewmafa on Sep 3, 2009 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitch count
Actually, I´d rather see a batter pop up or ground out on the first pitch than strike him out on 6 pitches. Ask Scott Kazmir or John Maine.
Bumgarner has managed to keep batters generally 2-4 years older than him to a sub 2.00 ERA in the Eastern League. He had a sub 2.00 ERA in the CAL and a sub 2.00 ERA in the SAL. Over a sample size of 275+ IP, he has a sub 2.00 ERA, so I doubt this is a fluke and he´s been just lucky on balls in play.
The biggest question may be regarding his velocity. How hard has his fastball been recently ? 88-91 mph ? 90-93 mph ?
by Doob on Sep 3, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
