Florida Marlins Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Sep 2, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
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This list was originally published January 9, 2009. This is a review of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.
1) Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A-: .319/.399/.463 for Triple-A New Orleans, .202/.280/.310 in 26 games for the Marlins. Just needs more time, only 22 years old, will get another chance next year.
2) Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade A-: .280/.419/.459 with 61 walks in 257 at-bats for Double-A Jacksonville. Power has been disappointing, but huge increase in walk rate is stunning.
3) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B+: .262/.333/.420 for Class A Jupiter, but just .183/.280/.280 after promotion to Jacksonville. Just turned 20. He needs a full year of Double-A next year.
4) Mike Stanton, OF, Grade B+: .294/.390/.578 in 50 games for Jupiter, .234/.310/.453 in 73 games for Jacksonville. Has combined for 26 homers and 55 walks, but 138 strikeouts in 123 games remains very high and worrisome for me.
5) Kyle Skipworth, C, Grade B+: .208/.263/.348 in 70 games for Class A Greensboro. Very disappointing, has had injury problems, too many strikeouts, not enough walks. Too young to give up on but he's really stunk it up.
6) Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B: Limited to 16 innings for New Orleans with 14 walks, 8.04 ERA. Knee and back injuries.
7) Sean West, LHP, Grade B: 4.22 ERA with 47/35 K/BB in 81 innings for the Marlins, 84 hits allowed. Components don't support the ERA. Either the ERA will rise next year or the components will improve, but overall he's held his own as a rookie.
8) Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B: Out all year with a torn labrum.
9) Chris Coghlan, 2B, Grade B-: Hitting .296/.373/.440 for the Marlins. Very successful rookie campaign.
10) John Raynor, OF, Grade B-: Hitting .258/.327/.362 with 18 steals for New Orleans. Contact issues, 114 strikeouts in 423 at-bats. Might still contribute as a reserve outfielder but the grade was too high.
11) Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP, Grade B-: 3.03 ERA with 55/40 K/BB in 65 innings for Triple-A Portland in the Padres system. He has good stuff, but command is still a big problem. Grade was too high.
12) Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .292/.377/.470 for New Orleans. Not quite enough bat to force his way into a first base job this year.
13) Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .259/.322/.443 with 26 steals in 35 attempts for Jacksonville. Good speed, sparks of power, still kind of interesting but at age 24 he needs to move fast.
14) Bryan Petersen, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .302/.375/.422 for Jacksonville. Has stolen 12 bases but caught 12 times. Decent on-base skills but power questionable.
15) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: Traded to Nationals. Combined 3.97 ERA with 99/51 K/BB in 143 innings for Double-A Jacksonville and Double-A Harrisburg. Not great, not terrible, still just 22.
16) Brad Hand, LHP, Grade C+: 4.77 ERA with 119/63 K/BB in 123 innings for Greensboro, 125 hits. Got off to a terrible start but has pitched better in the second half.
17) Isaac Galloway, OF, Grade C: Hitting .265/.293/.380 with 14 steals in 22 attempts for Greensboro. Very toolsy, raw, power undeveloped and plate discipline doubtful. No relation to Lt. Galloway, security redshirt murdered by Captain Tracey on Omega IV.
18) Jake Smolinski, 2B, Grade C: Hitting .285/.380/.449 for Greensboro. Has breakthrough potential for next year.
19) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Grade C: 6.35 ERA with 50/42 K/BB in 78 innings for New Orleans, 102 hits allowed. Gets grounders (2.05 GO/AO) but that's the only positive note in his numbers.
20) Chris Leroux, RHP, Grade C: 2.79 ERA with 54/16 K/BB in 58 innings for Jacksonville, 58 hits. Crushed in brief major league action but will get more chances.
Pre-season, the Marlins system looked like it had a big batch of high-ceiling guys at the top, but that it thinned out quickly after the top 10. Injury attrition knocked out two pitchers, and now it looks like some of the B- guys were overrated. Stanton could be a superstar but still has work to do. Maybin just needs to play. Skipworth looks awful right now but is too young to give up on. Coghlan and West have been mainstays this summer. The 2009 draft is youth and projection heavy in the first three rounds, then shifted to a college emphasis.
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Coghlan
Coghlan has been outstanding. There are a lot of years where he would have a great chance at ROY. He is one of those guys who just seems to know how to hit. Scouts don’t seem enamored with his tools, but he was very solid in 07 and 08 and has not dropped off with the promotion to the majors.
Is there any word on whether he will be moving back to the infield at some point?
Re: Stanton's strikeouts
They’re certainly the elephant in the room with him, but I feel pretty confident he’s going to overcome them. His plate discipline numbers actually made a substantial leap from last year…
2008 (Low-A): 11.0% BB, 32.7% K, .318 ISO
2009 (High-A): 13.5% BB, 25.0% K, .283 ISO
Now obviously you can’t just ignore the Double-A numbers, but ARL is hugely important: he’s 19 years old. 14 HR and a .219 ISO in 274 AB against Double-A pitching is actually pretty encouraging. He’ll always have a lot of swing-and-miss in him, but with the raw power he has, he can easily get by as a 30% K guy in the majors — and if he can continue to work and cut it down to the 25% range while hitting for the same power, then he could wind up being the best major leaguer out of all current prospects.
+1
I am glad to see Stanton is holding his own in Double-A with substantial power as a teenager, but I almost wish the Marlins had left him in the Florida State League so that he could maintain and convincingly alter his plate discipline percentages from a year ago. I’m interested in his AFL performance—and I’m sure his homers will fly down there—but mostly I’m looking forwards to see (surely they’ll start Stanton back in Double-A Jacksonville) next year if he can begin the first two months of 2010 like ‘09 by lowering his K rate and upping his BB rate while maintaining his power. And he’ll only be 20.
by richieabernathy on Sep 2, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
west
what are the chances that his components improve opposed to his era skyrocketing next year?
Greensboro guys
After seeing quite a few Greensboro games and talking to Hand, Galloway and Skipworth I wouldn’t give up on any of them. First off, Greensboro had an awful team this year. Most of the players should have been in Jamestown or GCL. I also question the playing ability of the team – they did alot of things fundamentally wrong – was it overmatched ballplayers or bad coaching? Usually I chalk it up to the coaching staff, but Everson and Bell had a tall order with the lack of talent they had.
Anyway Skipworth had an awful year. His glove was good, but his bat just plain awful. But I was always struck by his maturity. He didn’t show his emotions on the field although I’m sure he’s frustrated. He was also very accommodating to fans – whether signing autographs or just talking to regulars. He’s very young for this level – he’ll get a chance to prove himself again in G’boro.
Hand had a very good second half. At times he was brilliant. He has good stuff – it moves and it was dominant for small stretches at times. Another mature kid – very care free and has his head on straight. The home game of the season he only went 5 innings, but it was 5 of the best I’ve seen by anyone this year, including Dan Hudson.
Galloway also missed a lot with injuries this season. But like you said – very toolsy. If they can get his plate discipline better and get him hitting for average and the OBP up he could lead off in the Majors. Just like Hand and Skipworth he impressed me with his maturity, too. He was clearly frustrated when he broke his wrist, but never showed it to fans. That says a lot for a kid.
My three guys to watch next year...
-Morrison: Look for the power outage to end…With the amount of walks he is drawing, this guy could be a real superstar in the making.
-Smolinski: Finally living up to his draft potential; he needs to improve his hitting against RHPs, but there is a ton of potential.
-Ceda: Have been looking forward to his return from injury…power arm with SO galore.
meaning
that Stanton will never be given 600 at bats and a full season at the Major League level to adjust and find himself?
by richieabernathy on Sep 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember that Logan Morrison
had a wrist fracture which might have had an impact on his power output
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Jeff
He is not top 20 worthy
Marlins Top 50 Spex : FutureFish.org
Alex
he should be top 20 for 2010
Marlins Top 50 Spex : FutureFish.org
Notes
Stanton = Ryan Howard as a hitter
Maybin stole less than 10 bases at Triple AAA and had less than 10 HR…only + was his batting average
I love Galloway his potential is 20 20
Cousins = Brett Gardner but will never have a place to play in the Marlins system
ummmmm, no.
Howard’s lines went like this:
2001 – .272/.384/.840
2002 – .280/.367/.828
2003 – .304/.374/.889
2004 (combined) – .291/.380/1.017
2005 (in 61 games) – .371/.467/1.157
Stanton’s stats are as follows:
2008 – .294/.390/.968
2009 – .231/.307/.756
while it’s a bit early to be comparing their development, you said it. I would argue that Stanton’s path is looking somewhat like Jeff Francoeur’s line the first time he was at AA (.275/.322/.808). The worrying thing about Stanton is his OB% has take a DRAMATIC nosedive. While he is young and has plenty of time to turn it around, to say that he’s like Howard is a bit dumb until we have more data. He’s intriguing as a prospect, but even Frenchy’s line at AA when he 21 is better than Stanton’s line in AA at 19-20. While I think Statnton will be better than Frenchy, he won’t be as good a Howard. He’s probably destined somewhere in between. It all depends on his development. And notice that the Fish don’t have a great history of developing outfield bats (Hermedia anyone?) or patient hitters (everyone sans Hanley).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 3, 2009 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
But Stanton’s career high for walks is already 16 higher than Francoeur’s, and he’s at Double-A a year younger than Francoeur was.
good point...
i am assuming that Stanton stays in AA next year so he can work on that OB%.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 3, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope so.
I think they’re promoting both Stanton and Dominguez too quickly… let them exist as stars in the lower leagues for a while. Outclassing the opposing teams gives them a bit of a cushion to experiment with new approaches at the plate.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
Hanley and Uggla
Uggla is very patient.
But then again, both of those guys got to the majors without a lot of that patience, and have only developed it in the major leagues.
(I feel like Morrison’s walk totals are encouraging… this is clearly a guy who is actively trying to draw walks.)
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
Cousins
That’s a brutal comp for Cousins. They aren’t even close to similar players. Cousins has a + arm, hits for some power (15-20hr), strikes out alot, walks more than Gardner, and won’t steal nearly as many bases
Marlins Top 50 Spex : FutureFish.org
the comp was...
Brett Gardner=Cousins… for those that missed it
Marlins Top 50 Spex : FutureFish.org
You're kiddin' about Francoeur, right?
When Francoeur was Stanton’s age (give or take a couple of months) he posted a .769 OPS in the Sally League; Stanton has already dominated the much tougher FSL, with superior plate discipline, to boot.
Also, though I do like the Ryan Howard comp, Mike Stanton slaughtered the FSL better as a teenager than Ryan Howard did as, what, a 23-year-old? It should surprise no one if Stanton is one of the top 10 MLB hitters by 2012.
If not sooner.
65 homeruns
as a teenager with a wood bat against professional pitching for Stanton. Ridiculous stuff.
by richieabernathy on Sep 3, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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