Working on Top 100 List
by John Sickels on Sep 15, 2009 9:13 PM EDT
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PrintWorking on the Rotowire Top 100 list....
What sleeper prospects would you suggest for such a list?
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Kyle Lobstein
He would be a good one to have at the tailend of the top 100. His end of the season numbers were impessive.
I like Simon Castro more
He seems like a solid 80-100 guy
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Sep 15, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Other padre sleepers to consider
Galvez, Sogard, Scribner, Davis, Lubekke
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 16, 2009 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Wynn Pelzer
He’s still striking guys out with his elecric stuff. Then again, I’d take Castro over Pelzer.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
I don't think any of them are top-100 candidates
Though I do like Galvez and Edinson a lot
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Sep 16, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Simon Castro!
My 3rd favorite prospect named Castro!
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Tyson Gillies
Will be a stud top of lineup guy.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Yorman Rodriguez
Young but solid in his first year….perhaps belongs near the bottom of the list.
co-GM, Cienfuegos Chicken Roasters, DE League (Dynasty), CBS
current MiLB roster: Dayan Viciedo, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Tabata, Jenrry Mejia, Brad Lincoln, Jaff Decker, Juan Duran, Adys Portillo, Yorman Rodriguez, Cesar Valdez, Daniel Duffy, and Esmil Rogers.
Chase d'Arnaud
Not sure if he counts as a sleeper but I think he is underrated.
Chase isn't underrated!
I believe he was selected to go to the AFL. You aren’t underrated when you arrive there as a position player to my knowledge especially since the JV league (Hawaii) has been canx. Tejeda listed below is another potential sleeper, remember he’s 19 playing in AA ball and also going to the AFL.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Then we have some odd criteria
I like Tejada. Not sure if he is top 100. And he is a level ahead of d’Arnaud and 3 years younger. But I see folks like Thomas Neal mentioned as a sleeper. He was on the year end hot list at BA and he has been mentioned in a lot of places, so don’t know if he is sleeper. Chase d’Arnaud has not been much discussed at all on the site and even in Bucs Dugout or whatever the pirates blog on SB nation he was only around 15 on one top 20 list and a c+ (and they said he would become a utility infielder at the least, hardly stellar praise).
I didn’t see a lot of raves for a guy who did .295/.402/.481 in high A and had 31 steals and only 8 caught stealing and averaged about 12.4% bb to 17.5% ks across the 2 levels. And seems to be good enough to play ss or 2b.
John has written 4 stories that mention Travis d’Arnaud, but not Chase. He was ranked 11th best Pirates prospect in one fanpost by Willie back in August. No one followed up in the comment section. Most other comments or fanposts mentioning a d’Arnaud are talking about Travis on minorleagueball, although I have made a few brief comments mentioning him. He made no one’s top 50 list, or redsoxfaithful’s top 100 (Neal was 81 there).
The funny thing is, is he a sleeper or simply not good enough to make the top 100. Fine line I guess.
Logan Forsythe was 83 on RSF’s list. He’s agood sleeper candidate to me, although he slumped in AA.
solid
he’s very solid but not sure about top 100 worthy….will keep him in mind for back part of list.
by John Sickels on Sep 19, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed on Strieby
he could be a sleeper source of roto power perhaps as soon as 2010
The Savannah 3
Jeurys Familia
Robert Carson
and Kyle Allen
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Sep 15, 2009 10:49 PM EDT reply actions
Familia is ahead of both Carson and Allen
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
You've got to be High!
Familia is ‘not’ ahead of Kyle Allen. Allen is athletic with projection, Familia is not. FBs are very similiar in Velo (both 93-94), Slider is 84-86 for Allen, 81-83 (slurve) for Familia. Allen has a plus CH vs a basically non-existent CH from Familia. Familia is not 185lb (like when he was drafted he’s more in the 225 to 235 range). Allen is still at 195/205. Both are still 19. Allen was a two way guy learning how to pitch vs throw — see www.scoutingthesally.com . Carson has issues with logging innings (not the velo issue, just the flattening out of his pitches after innings) why the hits continue to come (not swing and miss stuff).
There is no reason to sleep on Al
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
You read the site, so I’m confused. The author of Scouting the Sally says he likes Allen more, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an argument that Familia is ahead. According to Newman, "While I can’t prove it, Familia also seems to be improving his physique as the season wears on. " So, maybe while not “athletic”, improved body type and conditioning is more important than an athletic body.
Also, Familia wasn’t drafted, and who in the world is suggesting he’s 225? You are entirely inflating Allen while discrediting Famlia for no reason. Familia’s velocity has also been a tick higher this season, and there is nothing to say it won’t tick higher just like Allen’s with improved conditioning. Its close, but you are out of your mind if you think that Familia lacks projection.
TruDean
Wow, attacking the draft vs IFA. That’s wins your argument. Familia was an IFA in 2007. Familia is 225 plus, trust me on this. It’s fact.
While I’m not inflating Allen. While you state that Familia was a tick higher, that’s based on Newman’s attendance in Savannah. I’ve read that Allen touched 95 this year, elsewhere, but can’t find the location to the site(s).
If you’re 1A and 1B, I’m not downplaying Familia, he did receive Helium Watch from BA, while Allen has yet to. BA also said Familia’s CH was a good pitch and it’s clearly not.
Don’t think I don’t like Familia, I do, but the point here was Allen is going to project more than Familia.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I was looking at the numbers to try and make a case for Familia
But the only one that really does it is tRA, where Allen is at 5.32 and Familia at 4.00. I’m not quite sure why though. Their K%, BB%, GB%, GB/FB, etc. are all really really similar. Allen had a lower strand rate, higher BABIP, and higher HR/BIA. It seems like the differences are all in the much more “luck” dependent categories (For pitchers). So if your posit that Allen does indeed have more projection left, which I happen to agree with, then it does seem like a very strong case could be made that he’s the better prospect right now, which is still kind of mind boggling to me after following them both throughout the year. Not that I’m not a big Allen fan, I have been since last year, I’m just surprised how close these two actually are the more I dig, I expected to find the statistical results to strongly favor Familia given the tRA difference.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 16, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Meddler
Statistical data on a 19yo? Has little to no bearing, unless they are getting totally destroyed.
Statistics over an entire season are thown out the window in 1st Full-Season ball, use thus the projection basis. Unless you’re really getting hammered. Which by the way Kyle Allen did in his 1st month as you see the 7+ ERA in April on www.firstinning.com
But if you look towards the end of the year, take Jul/Aug/Sep and figure in your stats there…do you come up with the same tRA. I mean those figures are used for what? MLB and Fantasy baseball selections.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not true at all
Statistics mean exactly what they set out to do. They’re not some holy grail of all knowledge. tRA is a composite stat, and I agree can be very tricky with minor leaguers in general, but thats because it takes the subjective distinction between GB, LD, and FB percentages and ratios into account, not because its meaningless. K%, BB%, GB%, GB/FB, LOB%, BABIP, HR/BIA all tell us quite a bit about why a player may or not have been successful at preventing runs, as well as why or why not he might be successful at preventing runs in the future.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and a 5.32 tRA is indicative of getting "totally destroyed"
But in this case, I agree this is more a critique of the utility of a stat like tRA for minor leaguers. But that’s not because the concept of a stat like tRA wouldn’t be useful, the problem is that some of its components, which are very precise at the major league level, are imprecise at the minor league level. If the records of said components was more precise at the minor league level, tRA would be very useful as an evaluative tool. All those other more simple compound stats (such as K%, which simply measures strikeouts per plate appearance) are very useful. Especially for those like myself who only have limited access to firsthand scouting analysis.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 16, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Again...if tRA is your source, run those #s for the 2nd half of the year!
Listen T Pac says it as close as they come. It’s meaningless to an extent. Especially ERA.
The Savannah Staff had to deal with an infield complete with two 17 yo’s, one of which is the worst 3B in the league. Had they had a Middlebrooks and an outfield such as Greenville had with plus defenders and suspect bats, the stats then reduce dramatically.
We’re talking plain and simple stuff here, who’s got the projection and who has the arsenal to succeed at the Major League level. I believe that Familia and Allen have the kind of stuff to get there, but Familia has ‘not’ separated himself from Allen as the title of this goes.
Find a scout from the other teams and see who they want more. That’s how you find a prospect. If the other teams want your guy, then you got a prospect.
Now granted, the day that scout shows up, he might not like the arsenal that day and not fall in love with your guy. Finding all the faults. Happens all the time. Scout falls in love with a guy or absolutely turns off on a guy.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If you think he can run tRA for the second half of the year you don't understand tRA at all
by Graham MacAree on Sep 17, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
It's fun to be a dick all the time.
Just ask Graham!
Though if you do ask him...
you’re pretty much guaranteed a dickish, unhelpful response.
What's totally false?
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 17, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Allen's about the same as Familia at this point, Evan.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I like Familia a bit more cause he did it all year
But, yeah, I underestimated Allen because he was up and down in the beginning of the year.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Kyle Allen
Kyle Allen is probably the best “sleeper” there but I don’t think any are top 100. Really, there aren’t going to be too many “sleepers” who are top 100. But I guess there are guys who are rising fast and maybe could be in the discussion.
For the Mets, the closest are probably Kyle Allen and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, but I don’t think either is really in the top 100 debate yet, but guys who could be in another year.
The top 100 Met candidates are probably the more obvious guys: Martinez, Mejia, Davis, and Niese. Flores has top 100 potential, but I doubt many will still have him there this year, and he’s hardly a sleeper by now, either. Guys who might have a shot to be there in the future if they continue to progress might include Holt, Allen, Familia, Nieuwenhuis, and Havens.
by acerimusdux on Sep 18, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Some Astros to Consider
The Rotation at Lexington (Jordan Lyles, Ross Seaton, Kyle Greenwalt, Robert Bono, Brad Dydalewicz)
Jon Gaston
Jack Shuck
JIOVANNI MIER
by astrosfanforever on Sep 15, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't be
But he should be on every top 100
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Alex Torres
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
Kids a player!
Stock is the goods!
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm not sure what John is looking for in regards to sleepers
that is, what qualifies as a sleeper for John,
but as for the Cubs, I think Castro/Vitters/Jackson/Cashner should all be in the top 100, with Carpenter/Brett Jackson/Hak-Ju Lee/Kyler Burke as perhaps the borderline guys.
Cubs system really that good?
I’ll concede Hak, Castro, and Jackson, but the rest of them are probably fringe. Vitters learned how to hit from Fonzie Soriano. Cashner hasn’t produced results commensurate with his repertoire. Brett Jackson and Kyler Burke are redundant 4th OF. Carpenter could probably be a sleeper, but remember, the Cubs system isn’t what it was….10 years ago.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Cubs system
I think it’s probably gone from a lower third system to more middle of the pack. I think many Cubs fans feel that way, although my general sense is that I would not be surprised if the system did not rank as high as I think it should (in the 16-20 area).
Quick comments:
Vitters was considered by many as a solid top 50 prospect at midseason. Relative to most MLB lists, I don’t see any way he’s not a top 100 prospect, in all honesty. This isn’t to say I am all that gung ho on Vitters, but for now, I think his talent, his development this year will still garner him a top 100 slot, and perhaps a top 60 slot for many lists.
I would argue that Cashner has produced results that one would derive if based upon solely a view on his “talent” and repetoire. The plus-plus fastball helped him, but while his slider has plus potential, it was inconsistent this year. Add in that his change is a work in progress/iin development, along with the fact that he was on strict limits this year, relative to pitch count and number of pitches. He showed far better ability to be a potential starter than what many thought at the beginning of the year. Like Vitters, this isn’t a statement on some sort of exaggerated confidence on a prospect’s ability to succeed. It’s a statement on Cashner’s upside and progress that he’s shown this year. In a best case scenario, if that slider regains it’s consistency and the change develops, this is a pitcher with one of the highest ceilings in the minors, IMO. Btw, while I’m a Jay Jackson fan and would rank him higher, there’s a fair case to be made for Cashner being the higher ranked talent. Now, could I see Cashner out of the top 100? Sure, I guess I can, but I think he deserves to be in there.
I didn’t argue for the rest as top 100. I probably should’ve been clearer in saying that I thoguht the other 4 were more 101-150 types, Lee’s upside may get him into the top 100 (but if that’s the case, then Cashner’s upside should get him there as well). As for the other three, Carpenter has the plus stuff and performance to think that he might be closer to top 100 than many may think. He also stayed healthy this year. I know some Cubs fans that prefer him to Jackson or Cashner.
Looking at the OF’s -
Kyler Burke – Again, I in no way meant to suggest he was “101” or something like that. If that’s what you thought I meant, then I apologize for not being clearer. I do think that he might crack the top 150 for some lists, if not top 120. I’m still, as a Cubs fan, very wary of Burke … but this is a 21 year old kid coming off a monster season in the MWL. Even his luck/park adjusted lines were still excellent. He has loads of power potential, as evidenced by the scouting report and the doubles (along with the homers). There’s solid speed for the type of player. He’s a plus defensive corner OF with a plus arm and good range (enough to play some CF in the minors, but more a stopgap there). The upside and performance are factors that should play well into winter rankings, IMO. He only had 100+ AB’s at Peoria the year before.
Brett Jackson – We’re talking a prospect list ranking, right? If so, I think Jackson’s physical upside plus decent performance out of the gate should likely garner enough attention to crak the 101-150 area for some lists.
Btw, on the strength of the pitching, the Cubs system was fairly highly ranked at the turn of the century, up till around 2003.
Cubs system
I think you should probably take out “fairly” as the Cubs system turn of the century was a top 5 system. The recent system…not so much. And yet Jake Fox and Casey McGehee were both produced out of this system to little or no fanfare.
As for my assessment of Carpenter, I agree wholly. I think he could be in the argument for the back end of the top 100. Brett Jackson…I just don’t see how he would crack it, though 125-150, definitely. But recent draftees are very hard to rate. Who out of this past draft is going to be top 100 outside of Strasburg, Ackley, Tate (….on name alone). And with the current state of Cubs pitching, beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder. It’s a hodge podge, much like my Brewers’ current state (though if you want to argue ultimate ceilings on a pitcher, does Cashner really have a higher ceiling than Jeffress/Rogers? Ceiling, people. Who’s higher than Jeffress!?!)
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
okay
i can take out fairly. I was simply addressing the 10 year comment you made in noting that the system was considered strong up to 5/6 years ago. Granted, much of the talent from those years failed.
I wasn’t arguing ultimate ceiling. I’m not sure where you are getting that from. What I’m arguing for Cashner, in regards to top 100, is that with his ceiling and development this year, that he deserves to be considered for the top 100. You can’t list based solely on ceiling, as Jeffress/Rogers would both have issues that bring them down. But Cashner’s development this year has been far better than anticipated, and there are still very few concerns that I’ve read on mechanics/delivery. Add in, by most accounts, a good work ethic, and good learning, and I think that combination gets him into top 100 discussions. Plus-plus fastball, potential plus slider but inconsistent, and an improving change, along with that background works for me as a possible top 100 candidate, but as I noted above, I can buy some folks for not having him in there, particularly if they think that he might not be a starter.
Again, we’re talking rankings.
I agree that Vitters and Castro should both be locks for the Top 100. Both should be around the 50-75 range, imo. Jay Jackson and Cashner are tougher calls, but I don’t think anyone would really fault you for placing them on the back of the list.
Out of the borderline guys, I think a lot of people are going to jump onto the Hak-Ju Lee bandwagon in the offseason after hearing what scouts and coaches have to say about him. I can see him sneaking into the back of a few Top 100 lists. He’s probably the top sleeper in this system, although the fact that he’s drawn so much attention this season makes that a hard title to justify at this point.
Chris Carpenter, Brett Jackson, and Kyler Burke are all more difficult cases for the Top 100, imo. Carpenter has an established record of health problems and has had issues with his control this season. My gut is that Jackson will crack Top 100 lists next season, but there are still concerns about his strike zone judgment. Burke is the hardest to justify including on a Top 100 list, especially since he finished his third go-round in the MWL (although he was age-appropriate).
by Outshined_One on Sep 16, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
working through my final list
I’m inclined to start shifting Burke up more than I initially thought. Jackson’s strikeouts were too much … albeit in a small sample size, and Burke really had an impressive year.
On pure numbers, I don’t have an argument.
But, in terms of the eye test, Jackson impresses me more than Burke. I think Jackson has a higher upside (much more likely to stick in CF) and his strikeouts seem to be more of a result of taking pitches rather than going up to the plate hacking.
by Outshined_One on Sep 16, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Responding to myself
I just want to be clear to those reading this, based on the two people that replied, that I am not making the case for anyone beyond the top 4 as potential top 100 candidates. I can buy a case for Lee based on upside, but as for the other 3, I should’ve been clearer and indicated that I simply think those three would be in that next group after the top 100, perhaps 101-150. It’s my fault for not being as clear. Now, if we want to debate that, fine, and if I was to be asked where I’d put those three, I’d probably, off the top, guess Carpenter as a top 120, Burke/Jackson top 150. Just want to be clear that I am not making a case for Carpenter/Lee/Burke as top 100.
no to top 100?
seriously? c’mon folks … a ranking doesn’t imply that a player will or will not succeed. On the basis of improvement from the previous year, along with his scouting report, and the fact that he was hurt in A+, I’m fairly confident Vitters will be top 100.
This isn’t a defense of Vitters as great. As I’ve fully acknowledged before, I am not a Cubs fan that has ever bought the Vitters train. I ranked him first last year by default. I think he’s got a shot at being a solid 3rd baseman, but I’ve never bought Vitters as a guy that, gut feeling, will be elite. But top 100 folks … I’ve got a hard time not seeing Vitters in the top 100.
Great Player, but not that great!
Track power, great body, wasn’t that impressed.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Stats are your friend
Milligan slugged .756 in the Appy League this year and .589 in the Sally coming off of an injury.
I don’t think he is top 100 yet, but he could be a breakout guy next year. I do not perceive that power will be a problem for him.
Teherran but doubt he's still a sleeper (I'm not spell checking my bad)
I think Freeman is way overrated.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 16, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Teheran
Columbian kid with lots of projection.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Teheran and Locke
Those are my two favorite Brave pitching prospects.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Reese Havens would make a great sleeper pick at this point.
Maybe Thomas Neal as well.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Mr Injury
Just another Met who’ll end up on the DL. If he can ever last a few months without being on the bench (hurt), he’s a sleeper. But, like Fernando Martinez (who can’t ever stay healthy), how can you project stardom?
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I hit Post too quick!
Might I remind you of Andrew Brackman. Oh now he’s a real sleeper! When he pitches I want to go to sleep. I’m sure the Yankees are enjoying the 15M+ they gave him too.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 16, 2009 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Kudos on the ‘sleeper’ term lol.
by ChalupaCabrera on Sep 16, 2009 5:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh, please. In terms of Martinez
how about the fact that he’s 20 and OPSed .877 in AAA? If he was a Ranger or something instead of a Metand hadn’t been hyped for 4-5 years already, people would be slobbering all over him.
And I don’t project stardom for Havens…but I would absolutely bet he’s an average second baseman this time in 3 years.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I'm only naming sleepers
Rangers: Beavens
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 16, 2009 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Blake Beavan blows
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 16, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
look at
Derek Lowe’s minor league numbers and realize Beavan is 20 and it’s not that far fetched to see him as a valuable, back-of-the-rotation sinkerballer who gets ground balls in bunches.
by richieabernathy on Sep 16, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe but
his slider is so bad that I don’t think he will be very good.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 16, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions
So you don't think Beaven is a sleeper canidate?
He probably won’t make the list but I think he should be considered.
The only other 2 Ranger sleepers I can think of are Robbie Ross, and Wilmer Font.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Forgot my favorite
Eddy Escobar aka Martin Perez lite
08/03/2009 A day that will live in infamy for the rest of the AL West.
by Michael Cave on Sep 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
and I forgot Robbie Ross.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Sep 16, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Giants
Thomas Neal is a great sleeper pick, also Roger Kieschnick. In my mind both have surpassed Brandon Crawford on the Giants top prospects list due to their consistency throughout the year, despite staying in A ball.
by lincecum and cain then pray for rain on Sep 15, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions
Thomas Neal isn't a sleeper pick
Maybe I’m wrong, and sorry if I sound rude, but majority of the people reading this know who Neal is, and agree that he’s in the top 100. IMO he’s all but a lock to make it.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:40 AM EDT up reply actions
O's
Arrieta should be ranked higher and their big 2 lower.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 16, 2009 4:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Arietta not really a sleeper
I agree about Britton though. Sounds like a future #2 starter with that power sinker, and slider. Best yet to see if the change up comes around. I dont think he was on any top 100 lists last year, but he sounds like a major prospect to me.
Britton
seems like a no-brainer top 100 to me, but I’m an O’s fan.
by Dingbat Charlie on Sep 16, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I know Arietta isn't a sleeper
Just saying he’s underrated. I guess I got off topic.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, Bell and Britton should be on the list as sleepers, Arrieta as a non sleeper, same with Matusz(nonsleeper)
Another one to consider is Brandon Erbe who made tremendous strides this year and has an amzing ceiling. His ERA at Bowie as one of the youngest in the league was 2.34 and he only gave up 5.4 H/9 giving him a BAA of .170, thats ridiculous! Word is that this year he changed his approach and made strides in becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower…..
if they qualify by the 150 AB 50 IP rule, then...
Alex Avila and possibly Eric Young Jr.
Otherwise a couple guys who probably won’t get in but I like are:
Kasey Kiker, Casey Crosby, and Jason Knapp
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Zach Braddock/Mark Rogers
They’ve both stayed relatively healthy this year. Great strikeout numbers and even better stuff. Only question for both is starter or reliever.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Definitely not
Good arms, lack any type of consistent track record of health or success. Give them another year and then we can talk.
Id take it a step further
Braddock has just average stuff across the board, profiles as a 5th starter, 4th at best. Those types of guys dont usually wind up on top 100 lists.
And Rogers, despite the small level of success he has had this year, will be in his 6th year next year and still at least 2 years out. By the time he becomes a major leaguer (if ever) he will be about 29 years old. Once again, not top 100 prospect material.
Braddock
I don’t think Braddock qualifies because he’s pretty much a lock to be a reliever, so unless he’s slated to be a HoF closer he’s not going to merit inclusion on prospect lists. His results have been excellent, and I’m very intrigued, but I’m surprised he’s even under discussion as a starter. That seems to be a remote possibility at best.
by blackoutyears on Sep 17, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Ruben Tejada
Youngest player in double A with over 26 At Bats. .283/.351/.381 .346 wOBA. Only 59 Ks (12.1%) compared to 37 BBs (7%) in 553 PA. 19 stolen bases, caught 3 times (86%). Better power than expected with his frame with 5 home runs, 24 doubles and 3 triples. And supposed to be a good glove at short.
Now I know he’s not a better prospect, and certainly not better with the glove, but just for comparison, here’s Elvis Andrus’ line at the same age and at the same level.
535 PA, .295/.350/.367 .339 wOBA 91 Ks (18.9%) 38 BBs (7.3%) 4 homers, 19 doubles, 2 triples, 56 SB 16 CS (78%)
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Arnold Leon
Good all-around pitcher— good stuff, good results, good command, very young, success at fairly high (AA) level.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
He's a sleeper certainly but not really worthy of a top 100 list
But I suppose that is true of all sleepers.
Leon as a Starter - AA
Innings – 30.2
ERA – 1.76
Hits – 20
K/BB – 29/8
AGE – 20
Was a reliever for 2 years prior because he didn’t have much secondary stuff. Secondary stuff seems to have matured. He’ll probably start the year in AA as a starter next season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Oakland at 22 Years of Age. Still very raw.
by Colorado Fan on Sep 19, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Sleepers for the top 100 in the Indian system
should include Tony Sipp and Hector Gomez who you overlooked last year.
I like Delgado > Hoover. Just a lot more projectablility.
Bethancourt is someone I’m betting is a top 100 guy next winter. Delgado probably isn’t top 100, but I don’t think he should be too much further down from there.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Possible Sleepers
Lucroy – Not really a full sleeper, but he’s more of a back end of the top 100 guy.
Lobstein – Agree on whoever said him. He’s in the argument for the bottom half.
Strieby – Great numbers this year, showed good enough power to slip in the back of the top 100.
Bromberg – Personal favorite. High K rates, above average stuff, voted best pitcher in the FSL.
Chris Heisey
I saw him play a half dozen times and was pretty impressed. He had some strikeout issues in his month at AAA, but a .900 OPS and 22 HRs overall, are a positive.
David Adams
5th in ISO the FSL as a 22 year old second baseman. Third round 2008 pick out of UVa.
He is half a year younger than Reese Havens.
Their park and luck adjusted numbers per minorleaguesplits.com:
Havens: .280/.387/.465
Adams: .295/.371/.510
Different conferences (I wish South Carolina was still in the ACC) but they both played college ball in the coastal south, Adams at UVa and havens at SC.
Havens blew by Adams in his draft year. He apparently develooped impressive power.
But in 2007 their college slash lines were Adams .374/.454/.522, Havens .274/.337/.389. Havens may have been injured, but people had thought he could hit and was a disappointment in college until the light went on in 2008.
Adams doesn’t quite have Haven’s patience or power, but he has doubles power and may hit for a higher average.
I really like him, but at the moment
he is barely inside the Yankees only top 30 for me. I’ll consider him next year if he does well in AA, but right now I can’t see him in a full baseball top 100.
Also, he flashed some sort of power with 7 HRs in 257 PA for A+ Tampa. Not awful. Though he didn’t hit one in regular A ball before that.
I definitely think he will be a solid doubles hitter with a high average. Just a year away from being under consideration for a prospect list like this.
deep sleeper
I tend to agree he doesn’t make it, but he could work his way in next year if he puts up similar numbers in AA.
Josmil Pinto
Not sure of John’s tolerance for Appy Leaguers in a Top 100, but he’s impressive. If he’s truly a catcher then he’s someone to follow.
+1
…also WOW
I am a Twins fan and I love Josmil Pinto but I don’t even love him that much he is fringe top 200 overall prospects to me….
Because I think he is more of a DH type than a catcher for sure….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 17, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt
It’s definitely a stretch. I guess when I look sleeper I’m looking for someone in a position to take a sudden and unexpected leap forward. On the other hand, it hasn’t exactly worked out for Wilin Rosario or Wilson Ramos, though I agree with whoever tabbed Ramos as a possible sleeper in this thread. Still young and didn’t get embarrassed at Double-A, likely to remain a catcher.
Have you seen Pinto play or read reports on the defense, SHS? I’d be interested in any additional info on him.
by blackoutyears on Sep 18, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe not top 100 but...
Robert Bell, RHP, Tor (High A). Shifted to the rotation around the All Star game. This was his first professional season, out of Rice.
His minor league numbers since being taken in the 18th round out of Rice last year between SS-A, Low A and High A:
63 G, 10 GS, 127 IP, 81H, 32R, 29ER, 5 HR, 22BB, 155K. 2.06 ERA 4-1, 11 SV, .213 BAA.
I’m very curious to find a scout’s perspective about what he’s been doing.
by ofsticksandbats on Sep 16, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions
Jonathan Galvez
Although young he has show plate discipline, speed, power and he has a lot of room left in his 6’2" frame. If Jaff Decker makes your top 50 than I think he’s a player that needs to at least be considered.
Jaff Decker should for sure make top 50
I think top 20.
Some guy over at projectprospect had him ranked #7 and I honestly have no problem with that.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you might be referencing my list here, actually.
I had him at #7.
by RedSoxFaithful on Sep 17, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Brad Meyers - Nationals - AA Harrisburg
Brad (6’6" RHP)…has the top ERA (1.72) for all of the minor leagues. He’s whip is 1.05 … 108 SO w 32walks in 136.1 IP’s… He’s someone to watch for 2010…
Arodys Vizcaino, Michael Brantley, Casey Crosby and Chris Parmelee
None of which were top 100 guys in 2009, but all should be considered for a spot in 2010.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Sep 16, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions
Id say the first three are pretty good bets to be top 100
Parmelee? I keep seeing him mentioned around the net. Can someone explain all the love?
21 year old first baseman in A+ hits .258/.359/.441 w/16 HRs.
Be still my heart.
I dont hate him, but I dont see much to get excited about, and I really dont see him as a top 100 guy or even under consideration. What do you like so much.
Depends on how you define exciting...
because you’re right, he’s not very exciting as a prospect, but to me, there are usually a few guys at the back end of the top 100 that aren’t very exciting.
As for Parmelee, his park/luck adjusted line looks a little better:
273/375/471
He also significantly improved his K rate this year, while maintaining the strong BB rate and power. As you know the FSL is notoriously difficult on hitters, so while not impressive at face value, his 16HR’s were good enough for 3rd in the league, and his 65 walks led the league. His IsoP was good enough for 5th. If you think someone like Caleb Gindl deserves a spot on the top 100, Parmelee shouldn’t be too far behind. They had almost identical offensive seasons in the FSL.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Sep 16, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Mostly repeats of others, but . . .
Kyle Lobstein
Hak-Ju Lee
Edinson Rincon
Wilson Ramos
Simon Castro
Randall Delgado
Edinson Rincon
Tim Melville
Nick Barnese
Zach Stewart
And deeper sleepers I like: Julio Morban, Lance Lynn and if draftees are involved Grant Green and Max Stassi
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Sep 16, 2009 6:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Cleveland -- Jordan Brown
Cleveland — Jordan Brown won’t be considered by many because he is almost 26, seems to be an after-thought in the Indians’ organization, he’s had some injury woes and he’s not athletic, but he has consistently hit very well at every level, better, in fact, than more highly touted prospects.
2 for discussion
Dee Gordon seems like he should find his way onto top 100, a very exciting SS prospect
Also is Jamie Garcia a sleeper given the injury – his late season work says this guy is ready – and only 23
Rays
mostly repeats
Alex Torres …. Great numbers in the Cal league, only 4 HRs in over 100 innings impressive
Kyle Lobstein….. Great finish to the season
Nick Barnese….. another solid year
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
A few
Evan Anundsen
Robbie Ross
Cory Luebke
David Lough
Mike Trout
Grant Green
Wil Myers
These guys will be up for consideration when I make my Top 100 list, but in the end, I’m not sure if they have the juice to make it.
Green, Myers and Trout
I can’t say with any certainty because I haven’t laid out a top 100, but all three (along with Jared Mitchell) would get heavy consideration.
Two very good sleeper picks
For next season both Braves.
Robinson Lopez
Andy Otero
by Jay212033 on Sep 17, 2009 2:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Padres Top 100
Locks:
Jaff Decker
Donovan Tate
Aaron Poreda
Solid contenders:
Simon Castro
James Darnell
Everett Williams
Edinson Rincon
Sleepers:
Jonothan Galvez
Adys Portillo
I agree that Poreda isn't a lock, and my padre top 100 locks are:
Locks:
Blanks (has less than 150 abs)
Decker
Tate
Castro
Darnell
Contenders:
Williams
Rincon
Galvez
Portillo
Poreda (I think the pads have 5-7 better pitching prospects)
Forsythe
Durango
Carter (if he was still with the White Sox I think he’d make the list)
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 17, 2009 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions
…I’m not sure Tate is a lock. I haven’t seen anything about his toolset that differentiates him from any other number of HS talents, and I’ve heard quite a few negatives about his swing, in general. Given the strong start of Trout, I don’t know if Tate is really any more likely to make it than Trout is, though I’d be shocked if Tate was left off a BA list given their preferences. I’ve only done my top 50 so I can’t be sure, but Tate’s not on my list right now.
+1
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 17, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
some Yankees
Montero and A-Jax are locks so some sleepers=pobably Austin Romine (FSL POY-I really like him 70-75 possibly), Zach McAllister (late eighties maybe), Manny Banulos and Arodys Vizcaino (probably early nineties for both).
Looks like a few have Arodys but the others are all in front of him. BTW, I probably wouldn’t put Z-Mac that high, but most Yankee fans would. Most Yankee fans probably have Romine lower than where I have him, but I really like him.
Tim Melville
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Sep 17, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
some sleepers
Phillies SP Trevor May(may not be top 100…but better then alot think)
Cards RP Eduardo Sanchez( being an RP makes it tough…
Rangers SP Robbie Ross( if he was in most other systems he would be very hot
Twins SP David Bromberg ( he is starting to get noticed more)
Royals SP Tyler Sample( is a push..but next year at this time..I think he is top 100 material)
Giants SP Clayton Tanner(overlooked)
Cards SP Lance Lynn(gets notice..but overlooked…he continues to pitch well)
Clayton Tanner
Some guy on the yahoo finance message board and I were exchanging some off-topic posts on baseball and he mentioned Tanner is related to a friend of his. So I did a little study. He does seem like he has promise. A bit of a home run issue although some of that may be luck. LOOGY at least and maybe more.
Tanner
I think he will be one of those guys that the team is always trying to replace…but when you really look at it…he is a guy who is a solid # 4 or weaker 3. He will keep your team in thr game. I am thinking a Paul Byrd type …some real good years
thanks
Thanks guys…..this will help me make the list as good as possible, helping me make sure I’ve got all the bases covered.
Alejandro Sanabia
kid for jupiter looks very good when I got to see him pitch, kid has nice stuff and took a big group. Of course pitching in the FSL always helps specially in juptier. But, the kid looks very interesting and knowing florida and how they move along pitchers the kid could fly up the system.
Caleb Gindl
This guy has hit at every level with virtually no attention. He’s age appropriate for his level and figures nicely into the Brewers plans in the next few years.
He deserves a top-100.
sleepers
Dee Gordan, James Darnell, Randall Delgado, Phillipe Aumont, Grant Green. These should all be top 100 players.
Jays
I assume Stewart is no secret, and maybe Henderson Alverez isn’t either but I’ll mention him.
Also, Robert Bell was awesome after he moved into the rotation and there’s been a lot of buzz about a catcher named Carlos Perez.
Almost forgot
Mosies Seirra? Actually, I’m assuming most of these guys are NOT top 100 guys but I just like to think they’d be reviewed while the list was coming together.
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