International League Top 20 Prospects
by Bravesin07 on Sep 14, 2009 9:58 PM EDT
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PrintHere is my list for top 20 prospects in the IL(AAA) this year, this includes some of the key rookies of this year. Anyone over 100 AB's or 35 IP is eligible on my list.
1) Tommy Hanson
2) Matt Wieters
3) David Price
7) Desmond Jennings
8) Jeremy Hellickson
9) Michael Taylor
10) Austin Jackson
11) Matt LaPorta
12) Wade Davis
13) Tyler Flowers
14) Hector Rondon
15) Jose Tabata
16) Chris Medlen
17) Jake Arrieta
18) Michael Bowden
19) Ian Desmond
20) Jon Niese
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Austin Jackson is way too high
I just don’t like his bat at all, though he’ll probably be solid in the field.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Other than that
nice list
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Is there really that much of a difference between Austin Jackson and Carlos Gomez?
Maybe I’m being hyperbolic, but I just don’t see much to like there offensively.
Jackson will probably hit a little better
but not be as good defensively, though he will be good. But that seems like a good comparison
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Jackson has hit a lot more line drives
About 22% this year. Gomes averaged 11% in the minors and topped out at 16%. That suggests to me Jackson will be a better hitter. Neither showed much plate discipline, though. Gomes is a better athlete — no knock on Jackson — and was faster than Jose Reyes when both were on the Mets.
GB% is the only reliable one
Hard to mess that up
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
Yes, that's true.
But line drive/fly ball percentages are borderline useless.
Tools Whore
Interesting list (in a good way)
Though I would make my own top 5 like this:
1. Wieters
2. Price
3. McCutchen
4. Hanson
5. Tillman
I would also lower A. Jackson, and raise Rondon and Niese higher. I’d definitely find a spot for Brignac (at about 15), and probably Brantley as well (at the tail end). For pitchers, I think I’d slot Carrasco at about 16, and consider David Hernandez at 20. But that’s nibbling.
Really?
With what Hanson did in AAA this year to go along with his performance in the majors and he isn’t the number 1 prospect in your eyes?
he had a nice season
but that ERA is prettier than it should be. His peripherals are fine, but not unholy: 7.8 k/9, 3.3 bb/9, 0.83 hr/9.
Other than the homer rate, those are the same peripherals as Scott Richmond of the Jays. I’m not saying they’re equal (I’d rather have one Hanson than 5 Richmonds), but that I wouldn’t pin any sort of ace tag on Hanson yet. His peripherals were really close to Price’s as well, and Price was universally the stronger prospect coming into the year. I’m willing to wait a year or two for Price to have his Felix-like breakthrough. I like Hanson, but he had a pretty low hr/fly ball rate, and I wouldn’t be surprised to his a tick or two of improvement in his k and bb rates, but for his hr rate to get a couple bits worse, along with his luck, and to throw out a mid 4s era.
wat
Other than the homer rate, those are the same peripherals as Scott Richmond of the Jays.
No offense, but this is a stupid thing to say. Scott Richmond’s home run rate is more than TWICE that of Hanson’s. That is an enormous difference, when you are comparing their “peripherals.” Hanson was above average in all three categories that you listed; Richmond was above average in one (k/9), below average in one (bb/9) and terrible in the other (hr/9).
His peripherals were really close to Price’s as well
Not really. Price has below average walk and home run numbers. FIP:
Hanson: 3.77
Richmond: 4.94
Price: 4.57
I'm expecting Hanson's homer rate to go up
I could be wrong of course. And Richmond is in a more homer-friendly park, and a tougher league; these things don’t erase the difference b/w them (as I said, I’d rather have one Hanson than five Richmonds), but I was just trying to put Hanson’s sparkling ERA in context of his other numbers. The real issue is whether he has leapfrogged Price in terms of projected future value. I don’t think he has.
HR/F
aside from that, which suggests Hanson’s hr rate will go up as he reaches the standard rate, Hanson had higher minor league K rates than Price or Richmond. Richmond has a higher flyball rate than Hanson in the majors. Hanson has struck out 60 in his last 60 2/3rds. I think he will be a 9k per 9 guy or better the next few years. My assumption is that Richmond’s home run rate will be slightly higher going forward assuming that their hr/fb rates even out. Price is slightly more of a gb guy, but again, I think Hanson will strike out more batters. It is closer for them.
This isn’t to say that hanson has “leapfrogged” Price. hanson was pretty highly thought of after last year and the AFL and his overall season has been better this year. Price and Hanson are close. Hanson has shown better control this year than either of them.
Do you have an actual point to make?
The “luck” involved in HR/F has been greatly exaggerated. Pitchers will have “natural” HR/F rates anywhere from (roughly) 8-13%. Hanson’s at 7.6%, so there will probably be at least some regression to the mean, but there is no reason to expect a huge adjustment.
First of all...
no. Second of all, acting like Hanson’s HR/F has some kind of reasonable significance for future predictibility after 100 innings is just sloppy.and untenable.
Half way there
Acting as if we have any idea what his HR/F will end up at is flawed, and that includes saying “he’s below 11% (ostensible luck-free #) so it will go up.” All we can say at this point is that it will be in the range I posted above, which was my point. Since he’s essentially on the cusp of that range, we shouldn’t expect him to necessarily regress that far.
Price v. Hanson
I think we’ve reached the point where we can start to question whether or not Price should have been universally considered the stronger prospect. When you really look at it, Hanson’s numbers in the minors were definitely more impressive. He also added a great slider, giving him 3 plus pitches compared to just 2 for Price. Given what we now know I think there is a very strong case to be made for Hanson being the better young player than Price.
As for your assertion that Hanson’s ERA would jump to the mid 4s because of a rise in HR rate despite expected improvement in his K and BB rate, it just doesn’t have any basis in fact. xFIP, which uses expected HR rates based on FB rates, still has Hanson at 4.26 currently without the improvements in BB and K rates that you mention. There is no reason to think his ERA will jump into the mid 4s if you believe his K rate and BB rate will continue to improve, as you yourself assert.
Positional scarcity
Hanson’s upside is one of the best pitchers — if not the best pitcher — in baseball. Obviously, that’s not too shabby. But Wieters’ upside is a switch-hitting, solid-fielding, middle-of-the-lineup catcher. That kind of player is quite simply more valuable than any pitcher ever could be.
So yeah, it’s a tough decision, but Wieters is the best prospect in this league.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Might want to actually look up stats before making blanket statements
Right now Joe Mauer is having a career year, probably similar in terms of value to what Wieters might do in his best years. With his great numbers this year, Mauer has been 7.5 WAR player, which is an amazing number for a C. Still, both Grienke (8.3) and Lincecum (8.0) have posted better WARs so far this year, so I think the contention that not even the best pitcher in the game can be worth more than an amazing catcher just isn’t reality.
WAR doesn't include defense for catchers
Which makes what Mauer is doing this season with the bat so impressive (along with the fact that he missed the first month of the season). Mauer is generally regarded as a great defensive catcher, so WAR doesn’t even give him all the credit he deserves as a player.
I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad
What he said
In addition to that, you also have to take into account the fact that there is far more fluctuation with regard to pitchers than there is hitters. You’re better served relying on an everyday player to post consistent seasons than you are relying on a pitcher to do the same. I’m struggling to quantify this, but I think we all know it to be inherently true.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 18, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I like that
but with Hanson and Arrieta lower
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 17, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm
It cracks me up Bravesin07, for a guy who is so down on Davis you rated him above guys like Flowers, Rondon, Arrieta, and Niese. If I’m not mistaken you said you saw Davis as a long relief guy, yet Arrieta (potential #2 possibly an ace) is 5 spots behind him.
That being said I do enjoy seeing the league lists you make and for the most part would agree with this list overall. Nice job, keep it up.
Davis could be a #3, Arrieta could be a #3 but also a reliever too
Rondon give me another year, Flowers can’t play defense.
I already had a snarky "what, no Mets?" prepared
But you had to go and include Niese and ruin my fun.
Not that he doesn’t deserve it, I just forgot about him after his leg exploded.
If Tabata was still with the Yankees...
most would probably have him in the top ten easy. I wouldn’t even be surprised if he would have cracked the top 5. It’s amazing how when players go to Pittsburgh they suddenly begin to “suck”.
Then make a case for him
over anybody on this list that is ranked ahead of him. I’d be interested to read it.
Tabata
I’ve never been a big fan. I had a feeling he was being overrated 2 years ago and right now I feel good about that feeling. Tabata just turned 21 a month ago so age is on his side. But at some point you have to show some power. According to his milb.com page, he’s 5’11", 215. He should be hitting more extra bases than he has been if he really is so wonderful.
I think Pirates fans just have to hope Tabata is the next Freddy Sanchez. That’s as good as he’ll get IMO. But I don’t think he even becomes that good. Try a notch below.
Jose Tabata...
has more potential than anyone on this list not named Matt Wieters or David Price. He has proven he is able to excell in Triple-A as a 21 year old. While with Triple A indianapolis, he showed superb on base skills, above average power, and good speed in just over 100 ABs. i know this is a small sample size, but even being able to do this is an amazing accomplishment for someone who was just called “a worse Freddy Sanchez”. He has the ability to hit well over 300(possibly even winning a few batting titles), hit up to 25 bombs a year, and steal around 20 bases every year. He doesn’t HAVE to show above average power right now anyway. Last year, when Andrew McCutchen was still in the minors, many questioned his ability to hit for power. Now, try and find someone who doesn’t believe McCutchen will hit 20+ homers a year now. Power is usually the last thing to come and the only real important stats to look at for a young player like Tabata is his patience at the plate and he has shown patience at the highest level in the minor leagues at only age 21. If he were still playing for the Yankees, he would easily be past Austin Jackson on their top ten and would probably even outrank Andrew McCutchen on most lists.
you're totally off base with this...
Fernando Martinez: twice as many AAA ABs, a year younger, slugged .540 with a respectable OBP. He’ll hit more homeruns than Tabata, and will play great defense in the corners or maybe meh defense in center.
Tommy Hanson has as high a ceiling as almost any pitching prospect in baseball, save a few like Strasburgh, Feliz, etc. Tillman is awesome too.
That’s just a couple off my head.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
hit up to 25 bombs a year
Say what?? He has 26 CAREER home runs. He doesnt look like he’s going to hit for power and that’s people’s main objection.
The questions people had about McCutchen arent the same degree as those about Tabata.
Yes they were...
people questinoed whether McCutchen would hit even 10-15 homers a year like they are now with Tabata. They are almost exactly the same questions they were asking about McCutchen and yes they were to the same degree. He had the on base skills, could steal some bases, and had some potential. If you remeber, McCutchen dropped down some lists in his last two years in the minors because he didn’t show enpugh “power” that he didn’t need to show yet. He has the ability to, that is what I am saying. Power is usually ALWAYS the last thing to arrive with a player like Tabata. He did start to show it in Triple A Indianapolis anyway. All you really need to show in the minors is plate discipline and power PROJECTION. If you have those two things, there is a good chance that you hit for at least pretty good power in the bigs.
Also, i don’t like Hanson much. I see him having 2-3 good seasons and flaming out right away. I just can’t see him being the “ace” everyone seems to think he is. Maybe for a season or two, but after that it’s to the back of the bullpen in my opinion. Fernando Martinez has more power potential, but Tabata has better on base skills and is lees likely to absolutely suck in his first taste of the majors because of it. Strasburg is not on this list or I would have included him. Tillman will be a good starter, but not better than a 300+ average with 20-25 homers, and 20+ stolen bases.
um...
In this same thread, I praised Hanson. I was just saying, saying anyone is “the next Roy Halladay” on your own team is pretty much that, yes. And the three players I praised here? Tillman, Martinez, Hanson. Wow, what a homer.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Any reasoning behind that Hanson claim?
Seriously, what reason is there to think he’s only going to be good for 2-3 seasons and then flame out? Why is he more likely to flame out than any of the other young pitchers that have been talked about? What possible reason is there to believe he can’t be an ace, especially considering he already has 3 pitches that grade out as at least plus, to go along with an at least average change?
I’m not trying to say that there is no way your prediction comes to fruition, but if you’re going to make a claim as bold as that one you should probably try and back it up with some actual reasoning.
I don’t know why you just assume that Hanson will flame out after a few seasons. What do you have to back that prediction, because many would argue that he’s already an ace who still has room to grow and get better.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
I agree with you...
…but I can see the argument. F-Mart has more power potential, ARL, etc.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair...
I’m a Mets fan and I probably would have flip flopped them, but I would definitely have those two in those two slots, so one position in the list doesn’t matter all that much.
ARL, my friend, ARL.
He was really impressive in AAA before he got hurt.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Solid List
The one major quibble would be with Ajax at 10. At this stage, he better be Willie Mays good with the glove or Rickey Henderson good with his legs to be a production major leaguer. His bat is regressing, his plate discipline is getting worse, and hit K rate is rising.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Sep 15, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
It is your list but I do not believe you should overlook
Carlos Carrasco and Michael Brantley. I think if you check 2nd half numbers you will find that Brantley outperfomed Austin Jackson. Then again, is Jackson really that good?
New York YANKEE prospect.
You really think Mets prospects are given the same level respect as Yankee prospects? ha
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Tommy Hanson
Since July: 47.2 IP, 34 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 3 HR, 13 BB, 52 K, 1.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 0.57 HR/9, 2.5 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 4.0 K/BB
Batting line against: .201/.266/.320 – .586 OPS
I’d say that Hanson has settled in pretty nicely, and is already putting to bed any concerns about a lack of Ks. He started off with some luck, but now he’s just damn good. The guy has more Ks than hits and walks combined in that time frame.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
+1
This is a good counter-argument to my claims up higher. I’m still hesitant to put Hanson over Price, but this helps close the gap. Thanks.
He’s a K per inning type pitcher at this point, and I think you have to view him as being a guy who can get strikeouts at that sort of rate for the forseeable future.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Yes, Tommy Hanson IS just that good
Is a Roy Halladay comp valid?
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 17, 2009 7:43 PM EDT reply actions
i don't really like it
i don’t see him becoming the control artist and ground ball guy halladay has become.
what about an RH Jon Lester.
baseball rules.
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