Prospect Review: Michael Brantley
by John Sickels on Sep 14, 2009 12:36 PM EDT
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Prospect Profile: Michael Brantley
One of my favorite prospects for some time has been Michael Brantley, who is having a great major league trial for Cleveland. Let's review his history and his future.
Michael Brantley was drafted in the seventh round by the Brewers in 2005, out of high school in Port St. Lucie, Florida. The son of former major league outfielder Mickey Brantley, he hit .343/.426/.377 in his 54-game pro debut between the AZL Brewers and Helena in the Pioneer League. He also stole 16 bases in 21 attempts, and showed excellent strike zone judgment with 28 walks against 17 strikeouts in 207 at-bats. I noticed him because of his family background as much as his pro performance. Scouts rated his speed highly and he was obviously very patient. He didn't get into Baseball America's Top 30 Brewers prospects, but I liked him and put him in my 2006 book as a Grade C+.
Promoted to West Virginia in the Sally League in 2006, Brantley hit .300/.402/.339 with 24 steals in 31 attempts, 61 walks and 51 strikeouts in 360 at-bats. He still didn't rank on Baseball America's Top 30 Brewers prospects, but I liked him and gave him another Grade C+. I wrote "Normally I'm not a huge advocate of these pure speed guys, but for some reason I really like Michael Brantley." I noted that I liked his balance of skills and felt that he might develop enough power to be useful at higher levels. Scouts had some complaints about his defense not living up to his speed, but I was taken with his on-base skills.
Brantley began 2007 at West Virginia again, hitting .335/.413/.440 in 56 games. At that point he was promoted to Double-A, skipping the High-A level entirely. He struggled some at the higher level, hitting .251/.353/.294 in 59 games, maintaining a good walk rate but losing power, granted he was one of the youngest players in Double-A at age 20. He stole 36 bases in 45 attempts on the season. I gave him another Grade C+, noting that I continued to have a good intuitive feeling about him. Scouts panned his outfield defense, although according to Minor League Splits his glove was above average in left field. Baseball America finally noticed him, though he still ranked just 24th on the Brewers list.
Returning to Huntsville for 2008, Brantley hit .319/.395/.398 with 28 steals in 36 attempts, 50 walks, and a mere 27 strikeouts in 420 at-bats. He was traded to the Indians as the final piece of the C.C. Sabathia trade after the minor league season ended. Once again I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2009 book, continuing to profile him as a fourth outfielder with speed and on-base skills but probably not enough power to start. Scouts continued to complain about his outfield defense, due to below average arm strength and lack of instinct. Again, the numbers were actually above average according to Minor League Splits. Baseball America put him ninth on the 2009 Indians prospect list.
Brantley hit .267/.350/.361 with 46 steals in 51 attempts this year for Triple-A Columbus, with 59 walks and just 48 strikeouts in 457 at-bats. Although the batting average was lower than previous standards, he maintained his excellent BB/K ratio, and set career highs in home runs and doubles. He's hitting .364/.417/.386 in 11 major league games for the Tribe. The Indians whine less about his glove than the Brewers did, and he spent most of the year in center field for Columbus. The funny thing is that his defensive numbers were actually somewhat worse this year than in previous seasons, even though the scouting reviews were better.
At age 22, Brantley is still some years from his prime. He's not going to hit .347 over a full season, but I think he can hit .260-.280 with a solid-to-high OBP and plenty of speed. I love his low strikeout rate combined with the strong walk rate, and he uses his speed very effectively. Although I have no objective data to back this up, I still think he could develop more power than scouts currently expect. His dad had a touch of power, and perhaps Michael can develop some too.
Unsubstantiated Prediction: Michael Brantley will have an All-Star season in 2014 at the age of 27, hitting .345/.425/.470 with 55 steals, finishing second in the American League batting title race.
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Another Ben Francisco
I never felt that Brantley was suited to play CF defensively, but that his speed would play ok in RF or LF.
I agree about the possibility of some power developing, but hes more of a gap to gap guy I think. Not really a slappy hitter like a Juan Pierre for instance.
I dont see him as being an All Star ever, but a solid 2 WAR type of player with some speed.
Nice player, nothing special, imo.
by backtocali on Sep 14, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing about Ben Francisco is that what you’re seeing now is probably as good as he’ll ever be. Marginal power, marginal speed, poor defense, below-average plate discipline, and a below average arm.
Brantley probably won’t ever be an all-star, but he has good on base skills, plus speed, and he’s still young enough and athletic enough that it wouldn’t be unreasonable to still hope for him to develop a little power. And he won’t be playing CF with Grady there, which will put him in LF for the time being.
I guess the difference is that there’s still room for Brantley to grow whereas Francisco has already reached his ceiling. But who knows, maybe Brantley never improves.
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by gorilla_baller on Sep 14, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody who understands the most important prospect stat could possibly compare Brantley to Francisco.
That all important stat: Age.
by Jay on Sep 15, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
260-280?
Sounds a bit low to me, based on his plus speed and contact ability. I see a similar triple slash line to Jacoby Ellsbury when I look at Brantley, with more OBP, less SLG. Maybe something like 290/370/400, and when you add in the 40 SB’s, you’re looking at a solid major league OF. To echo those above, not All Star worthy, but certainly productive, especially while cost controlled over the next 6 years.
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by ProspectTube.com on Sep 14, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He is a little better version of Ryan Sweeney
With the upside of David Murphy perhaps
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Sep 14, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comps
Brantley hasn’t shown much pop, he has the Ryan Sweeney tag at this point – a guy who is going to post an OK batting average, but basically has five to 10 home run power.
In his prime, Brantley could be David Murphy – a good player, but maybe more of a complimentary guy in the Major Leagues who can hit at least 10-15 home runs a season.
What Brantley does have going for him is a little better plate discipline than those two guys.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Sep 14, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...Sweeney or Murphy?
Those are two of the more random comps I’ve heard. Brantley’s two plus components are plate discipline and speed, neither Sweeney nor Murphy are known for either of those.
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by ProspectTube.com on Sep 15, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plate discipline and speed
Give Brantley distinct advantages over Sweeney and Murphy – but their hitting ability are basically the same – Sweeney right now – Murphy in Brantley’s prime.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Sep 15, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So basically he's Harvey Dent
with less power?
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 14, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of the Indians fans have suggested
that Terry Puhl, Darryl Hamilton and Kenny Lofton might be reasonable comps. Any of the three would probably make us very happy. Most of us put him in the 10-15 ceiling for HRs but expect some gap power. He hits a lot of line drives. This is the first year he has tried to pull the ball to any extent and it was reflected in his poor numbers in the first half.
by sdtribefan on Sep 16, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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