Michael Brantley in 2010

But I would think that with his lack of power, he’d have to be an OBP machine and very active on the base paths to retain value in that lineup. (Then again, “that lineup” doesn’t have anybody else really pushing for serious time in LF) . As JS has said, you have to love his plate discipline. Still, it’s hard to get too excited about a guy who OPS’ed .756 in the minor leagues, though Brantley’s got a bigger frame and might fill out some more.

Everything I’ve heard about his defense indicates he’s marginal in CF, despite his athleticism. I don’t think he gets great jumps and by most reports his arm is below average.

By the way, question for the community: how does one attach value to the stolen base in WAR? Is there any place I could read about this?

but Brantley’s the only one who’s been able to consistently walk as much or more than he strikes out. The 10%BB/10%K is a great place to be as a hitter. He’s a lot like an Ellsbury with more walks, and it’s not a stretch to see him as a very similar defensive player as well.

It’s tempting to say that Brantley’s not going to have the mild pop that Ellsbury shows, but the fact is that Ellsbury just turned 26 and Brantley won’t even turn 23 until May of next year. He’s got plenty of time to develop some moderate power, and I think a guy with his speed who handles the bat so well will be a pretty big doubles threat as he matures.

To me, an Ellsbury comp is the closest, although as I said on the main page of this site, Brantley should have a better OBP (and probably a slightly lower SLG). I think some are quick to forget that MB has been pushed through the minors pretty quickly and generally one of the younger players at each stop. For comparison, as a college draftee, Ellsbury started his 22 year old season in A+, while Brantley started his in AAA. Some interesting luck/park adjusted numbers:

Ellsbury – 275/356/379 (Ellsbury had a .500 BAPIP during his 2nd AA stint)
Brantley – 302/389/372 (while younger than Ellsbury at each stop)

As for defense, Keith Law recently had this to say, “He’s also a plus runner and can play center field, although that position is occupied in Cleveland by Grady Sizemore at the moment.”

I think JP hit the nail on the head with his 2010 outlook.

I was messing around with fangraphs, i was surprised at their rating for ellsbury’s defense

-10.2 UZR career, -6 UZR/150 CF in career, -12.4 UZR for 09
does he mask some defensive weaknesses w/ his great speed or are those defensive metric not a fair evaluation?

just for fun…

ellsbury career OPS + 94
 sweeney career OPS + 96

ellsbury – 6 UZR/150 in CF career
 sweeney +1.7 UZR/150 in CF career

that Terry Puhl, Darryl Hamilton and Kenny Lofton are good comps. Similar minor paths although Lofton is older with the same plate discipline and similar speed. His defense is very good in CF. Not as good in LF but his speed covers mistakes. I think the reports of his range limitations and weak arm are from BA who never really scouted him and repeats the same stuff year to year. How else do you explain the sudden rise to 9th in a deep Cleveland system? Just an opinion.