the daveh top 40 8/9/09
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 3:53 PM EDT
48 comments
I approach my lists as if I'm an MLB GM at a draft. I do of course take advanced leagues and ARL into account, but I lean heavily towards a "take the best player available" approach... So I often have younger/high upside players ranked higher than most. This is just something to keep in mind when you see an 18-year-old pitcher in low-A ranked above a 23-year-old slugger in AA.
One other thing I tend to favor is body-type. yes, there are always exceptions [the Lincecums, Oswalts, Pedroias], but it is not the norm, so I often tend to favor the taller/bigger/projectable types.
None of the players on my list are in MLB as of 8/6/09 when I started double-checking rosters. So don't cry foul when you don't see Feliz, Matusz, and Tillman top 10, because they would have been.
1. Jason Heyward - OF [ATL]
justin upton 2.0 .... i see no imperfections. its frightening. i'm in lust
2. Buster Posey - C [SF]
as sure a bet to be a very productive hitter behind the plate as yr gonna find
3. Michael Stanton - OF [FLA]
upside power upside power. not quite as fireproof as Ja Hey tho.
4. Jesus Montero - DH/C [NYY]
dat bat
5. Carlos Santana - C [CLE]
this bat, behind the plate, is pure CASH
6. Dominic Brown - OF [PHI]
he keeps improving... having no trouble adjusting to AA, and very projectable body. reminds me of fowler but with power
7. Justin Smoak - 1B [TEX]
already looks like a professional hitter. no doubt his bat will play well at the next level.
8. Matt LaPorta - OF/1B [CLE]
he will hit. not sure why he's been dropping down lists... i almost put him ahead of smoak. reverse SNTS
9. Logan Morrison - 1B [FLA]
i am big on guys with plate discipline like this. as good a bet as any to average ~.380 OBP right away
10. Christian Friedrich - P [COL]
i wasn't expecting to like him this much. he rocketed up my board the more i read/watched from him. nice frame too
11. Desmond Jennings - OF [TB]
have to fly, have to fight, have to crow. gonna be the rufio to BOSSMAN's pan.
12. Kyle Drabek - P [PHI]
admittedly raised his stock the most at the futures game. i really liked what i saw
13. Wade Davis - P [TB]
seems like he's been around forever. great pitcher's body, would've ranked a bit higher with better numbers
14. Matthew Moore - P [TB]
he's not being rushed... i'm pretty confident he could handle the fsl right now. he'll just have to dominate it next year
15. Martin Perez - P [TEX]
if this kid had a bigger frame he'd be about 5 spots higher. as it stands, he's an 18-yo lefty who strikes out 10/per9 in low-a
16. Jenrry Mejia - P [NYM]
i'm intrigued. show me more
17. Pedro Alvarez - 3B? [PIT]
admittedly didn't like his hacking at the futures game... but its one game, so i'll have to trust the numbers and scouts
18. Tim Beckham - SS [TB]
hitting doubles with regularity. needs work, but all the talent and the power potential is still there
19. Michael Taylor - OF [PHI]
big ol boy. but i'm quite sure dom brown was the reason the phils don't have halladay right now.
20. Jordan Lyles - P [HOU]
love love him. astros' brass did something very right
21. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B/SS [CLE]
love the bat. a 20-yo slugging .490 and owning a .204 ISO in the carolina league ain't no joke
22. Hector Rondon - P [CLE]
he's 21, strikes out one/per in aa with a 2.51 fip, moves up to aaa now and hasn't lost a beat. very under-rated
23. Julio Teheran - P [ATL]
is this ranking too agressive? I won't be surprised if he's top 20 on ba's list in 2010
24. Derek Norris - C [WAS]
huge ISOP in the sally-league for a catcher. huge. alvarez-huge. second to stanton-huge. and he has plate-discipline
25. Madison Bumgarner - P [SF]
jonathan mayo probably disagrees with this. lol. i need more from 'da bum' before i can justify ranking him higher
26. Yonder Alonso - 1B [CIN]
i haven't seen much but again i can't ignore the scouts. he will probably hit in cincy tho. anyone can
27. Jarrod Parker - P [ARZ]
would probably be 15 spots higher if not for a man named andrews being in his life right now. or andrews' associate, whatever, i don't feel good about it
28. Jaff Decker - OF [SD]
great name, great bat.
29. Chris Carter - 1B [OAK]
dat ass.
30. Nick Weglarz - OF [CLE]
he's got power and plate-discipline. and he's probably been a bit unlucky this year with a .258 babip. i was checking out his body [no homo] at the futures game... looks more athletic than people have been giving him credit for
31. Freddie Freeman - 1B [ATL]
gonna mash with his bro Ja Hey someday. someday soon.
32. Brett Wallace - 3B [OAK]
lost a bit of luster after all the hype last year.
33. Jason Knapp - P [CLE]
i just realized how ridiculous the tribe is gonna be in 2011
34. Casey Kelly - P?/SS? [BOS]
not sure where he's gonna play or how i feel about how he's being handled. but he is talented, very much so
35. Reid Brignac - SS [TB]
not sure if people forgot about him or just don't like cajuns, but i'll take him over escobar seven days of the week. still hitting doubles, and he's still lanky and young for his league
36. Eric Hosmer - 1B [KC]
waiting... to see something
37. Brad Holt - P [NYM]
i hear he's good. but aj burnett? :-)
38. Thomas Neal - 1B [SF]
big bat... can he dh in san fran? also, waiting to see how he does outside the cal league.
39. Ryan Westmoreland - OF [BOS]
this was vitters' spot. but jeff francouer 2.0 is not as inviting as what this kid brings to the table.
40. Jeremy Hellickson - P [TB]
actually would take hellboy over vitters as well. seems to get lost in the tb shuffle. under-rated because of his size
Just Missed:
Cashner
Vitters
Escobar
Castro
A-Jax
4 recs |
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I think there are going to be a few discussions about this list,
For me, Posey, Morrison, Santana, Brown, Moore, and Perez are a little high. I think Mejia belongs in the 20’s. I still think Feliz is a 25ish talent.
Other than that, it’s not a bad list, of course there will be tons of differing opinions.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 8, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Feliz not eligible
probably would’ve had him right after Jennings or Drabek
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
strange term
25ish talent? What do you mean by that? I’m just confused.
For me personally, I look at these guys as individuals, I wouldn’t per say, grab player X and ever try to project a spot for him. Other than say they would be top 100, or top 50. I look at Feliz and see an upper tier arm and a surprisingly good breaking ball. And then I put him after the player I’d take before him…
But, I wouldn’t say, hmm Feliz, he is nasty, prob around 25 for me.
Are you saying, in your evaluation, he is a 2nd tier guy? Not elite but very good.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Aug 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
anywhere between 23 to 27
that’s 25ish, but I think he’s capable of putting it together.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 9, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know why people think Thomas Neal can’t play defense
by superk1ng on Aug 8, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
didn't read anywhere that said he could
if you have a source that says differently i’d read it
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just search the minor lines at mccoveychronicles
he’s one of the most discussed players there. From all accounts, he plays a very good outfield with a gun for an arm(13 OF assists this year). He DH’d last year because he was coming off of a serious shoulder injury.
by superk1ng on Aug 8, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's so much the issue
Sure he can play defense . . .at corner outfield (probably left field from the looks of things) or first base. I haven’t seen anything that says “DH waiting to happen” or anything like that, but you certainly have to be a very productive player to be a quality major leaguer at those positions.
by mrkupe on Aug 8, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was just arguing that his defense is not horrible, like it seems to be implied. I agree that he needs to be seen at a higher level before we know for sure how legit his bat truly is, but he’s not a DH.
by superk1ng on Aug 8, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice List.
I like the list and aside from a few slots I would have diffrent looks real good. I like the Moore & Perez love.
SSKL members rule this site…….LOL
by cubsfan1 on Aug 8, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks cubs.
i put at least 10 hours into this list, glad its appreciated
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a Rays fan, and even I think Moore's too high
Love the Brignac Love tho.
I didn't say I wasn't flawless, but I damn sho' don't tarnish!
by RWRays on Aug 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
if he was in high-a and had a bit more control, he's top 10
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree wit hthe ranking of Moore
Just not a big fan of him. That walk rate scares the hell out of me. I also think Drabek is being overrated by many lately, but it’s not too significant.
Overall, nice list.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moore
Spot on imo. By next year this time, I think daves ranking will look good.
by cubsfan1 on Aug 8, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh it will.
But I’m waiting for his control to really come around.
I didn't say I wasn't flawless, but I damn sho' don't tarnish!
by RWRays on Aug 9, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eval
I think you might be right on Dom Brown. At first I was like woah high, but I was expecting it because you’ve been leaving hints. But I think he is going to be a stud, and when I do my final year top 100 non-mlb players, I might follow suit.
Top 10- I like it a lot. I’m not sure I love LaPorta there, I just don’t like his defensive value as a DH. If he sticks a solid 1B that would make his ranking great, but as a DH, he really drops a solid amount in value.
Next 10 – I really like Jennings there, but the pitchers seem too high for me. I think Alverez should be higher. I really doubt if you, or anyone was starting a team they would really not take him over most of those pitchers. Friedrich, Moore etc. etc.
20-30 MadBum and Parker are too low. I think Zona is doing the right thing by being careful with him, and same goes for Bumgarner. You would really take Martin Perez over those two?
The rest: I like the rest too for the most part, only a few players I really disagree with. Hellickson & Freeman are two that stand out.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Aug 8, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the eval
I would take Perez over Bumgarner, yes. and Parker as of right now.
my theory is, if everything was a-ok with Parker, he would just be not playing, like Houston is doing with Lyles. resting a young arm. if Andrews is involved, then there is some definite concern
by daveh33 on Aug 8, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
bold man, i like it
Perez is so good, and he just turned 18 a few months ago
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 9, 2009 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
Despite all the crap at DF and KBR’s thread, I like the idea of doing the list with another person who can balance your thoughts and perspectives.
If anyone is interested in doing a top 100 list with me for the end of the season e-mail me at J.D.Sussman@gmail.com. Obviously, I’d prefer if it was someone that actually posts on the site.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Aug 8, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
Love the Teheran and Kelly inclusions. Big fan of the upside of each.
by Kerm on Aug 8, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ja-hey
This had better be the last time I hear Jason Heyward referred to as Ja Hey.
-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!
by Jgaztambide on Aug 8, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Best nickname ever (but I’m just partial to it because I know where it originated).
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
by timmy3 on Aug 11, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mat Latos?
I’m assuming he’s lost rookie eligibility, and if not that, then it was assumed he would during the rest of 2009. Or does Latos fall 40-60 on merit for you?
Regardless I like the list/providing reasoning for your outliers.
And LOVE the Brignac ranking. Very underrated player right now.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Aug 8, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't include anyone currently in mlb.
so no Latos, Matusz, Tillman, Feliz, Go Beckham, etc.
by daveh33 on Aug 9, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice List
I agree with most of it, Id have Bumgarner higher, but he needs to strike out more guys so we’ll have to wait and see.
by metfan527 on Aug 9, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree Nice List, best one to date
(since Reg. Season ’09 has started)
the only qualm I have is Matt Moore at #14?
too high
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 9, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
the only problem people seem to have with him is control
since June he’s been 90/25 K/BB in 65.1 IP. for a guy who just turned 20 6 weeks ago. I’ll take it. he has the stuff that misses bats. better command will come with more experience.
by daveh33 on Aug 9, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "only problem" is control?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 9, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
and by only, it’s really “only” April and May of this year. Moore posted a 4/1 K/BB ratio last year, and then as dave points above 90/25 over the last 2+ months. He had a hiccup at the start of the season, but he’s righted the ship it appears.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 10, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, what else is there?
you realize his K/PA is 33.6 % right?
Lincecum currently sits at a paltry 30.4% on the year
by daveh33 on Aug 10, 2009 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't honestly think I'd say this
But I have more problems with this list than I do with Dewey and KBR’s.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 10, 2009 2:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At least Heyward's #1, right?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 10, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The list I've been working on should be done by the weekend.
Like I’ve said elsewhere, it’s a Top 100, with paragraph-long write-ups on everybody. The actual list is done, but I’m still working on the write-ups, and doing some last minute rearranging. I also keep finding guys I’ve forgotten… And, sooner or later, the write-ups start to sound repetitive, and I go crazy, so I’ve been taking my time with them (I’m at #61, though!).
I think the weekend is a reasonable goal.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 10, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, holy shit.
I’m at #75 with my write-ups, and the post is so long that the browser completely freezes whenever the FanPost software attempts to autosave.
I’m fairly certain I’m batshit crazy.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 10, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
our placement of Alvarez and Ja Hey
are exactly the same! how can you hate my list when we are cousins ?
by daveh33 on Aug 11, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the latest BA chat with Ben Badler
supports and shoots down some of my rankings:
con:
Teheran too high.
pro:
Freeman over Hosmer
Derek Norris can stick @ catcher.
Brown well above Taylor with this to say:
I just don’t see what’s not to like about Brown. He’s got five tools that mostly rate as 60s or 70s, either now or in the future, with advanced pitch recognition, and he’s performed well this year. I like Taylor too, but Brown just looks like a high upside talent with lower risk involved than you normally get with five-tool players.
after that, I feel very confident with my ranking of Brown at 6.
by daveh33 on Aug 13, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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