Dewey Finn and King Billy Royal's Top 25 List!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2009 10:38 PM EDT
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Ladies and gentlemen, throughout history sports famed duos rise above the others and become legends. Legendary duos include Ruth and Gehrig, Gretkzy and Kurri, Montana and Rice, Jordan and Pippen. However, all of these duos pale in comparison to the greatness that is Dewey Finn and King Billy Royal. As a result, King Billy Royal and Dewey Finn would like to present their Hot Tamale Top 25 Prospects List. After a lot of arguing and research, we have come to an agreement on the following rankings:
1. Michael Stanton (FLA) - Is this kid human? After terrorizing the South Atlantic League last summer with 39 homers, Stanton has continued to display his massive power stroke as he climbs up the minors. There are concerns about his strikeouts, however, he has shown slight improvement in that area this year. Stanton is a big athletic kid who is just scratching the surface of his potential. He has a real passion for the game and continues to try to learn and make himself better. Major League Comparison – Dave Winfield with more power
2. Jesus Montero (NYY) – Signed for $2.0 million in 2006 out of Venezuela, but saw that reduced to $1.6 million for undisclosed reasons. Considered to have the best power out of any international signee that season. Still having problems at catcher, however he has made strides this season according to coaches and scouts. His bat is one of the best in the minors, as he possesses excellent bat control, and plus-plus power. If he does not remain at catcher, his future is likely at firstbase, DH, or in the outfield. Recently broke his finger is probably out for the remainder of the season. Major League Comparison – Miguel Cabrera
3. Justin Smoak (TEX) - The total package. Hit for power? Check. Hit for average? Check. Can draw a walk? Check. Gold glove defense? Check. Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira seem like popular comparisons for Smoak, and I think they both fit very well. Hitting in Texas for 81 games a year, I expect some monster numbers. He is almost major league ready and should be a force in the middle of the Rangers lineup as early as April 2010. Major League Comparison – Mark Teixeira
4. Jason Heyward (ATL) - Jesus plays baseball? Apparently he does if you are a reader of prospect message boards. Jason Heyward is quickly becoming a legend. Many consider him the top hitting prospect in the minors, however, we feel that he is a tick below Stanton in terms of power, athleticism, and defense. Heyward has the tools and performance to indicate that he will be an impact all-star outfielder. Major League Comparison – Nick Markakis
5. Buster Posey (SF) – Posey was expected to be Florida State’s shortstop everyday, while pitching out of the bullpen due to his impressive arm strength. However, his lateral quickness and arm strength led to him moving behind the plate. He absolutely raked in High A, however he has struggled somewhat since skipping AA and advancing to AAA. Scouts feel that he can continue developing his power and are impressed with his defensive versatility. Posey has a plus eye and has demonstrated a strong ability to make contact. Major League Comparison – Craig Biggio
6. Desmond Jennings (TB) – Football standout that was at one time committed to playing at Alabama. Makeup has been questioned in the past but it appears that he has put that past him. Has a history of injuries but when healthy is a true five tool threat. Already has great plate discipline and an ability to make contact. Jennings plays strong defense and has emerged as one of the top prospects in baseball this year. Could become a factor midway through the 2010 season. Major League Comparison – Carl Crawford
7. Brian Matusz (BAL) – One of the top pitchers in the 2008 draft. A lefty with three plus pitches, Matusz made quick work of each minor league stop. Armed with a 94 MPH fastball and an outstanding curveball and changeup, Matusz already has flashed his abilities in the major leagues. Scouts feel that his ability to generate groundballs, and maintain a high strikeout rate, will enable him to become a true frontline starter. Major League Comparison – Cole Hamels
8. Pedro Alvarez (PIT) – Drafted 2nd overall in the 2008 draft. Great college career saw him win numerous awards and accolades. Broke his hamate bone in his final college season, and initially struggled to regain his trademark power. Alvarez struggled in High A, with many contributing it to the belief that he was bored at the level and would thrive when promoted. That appears to be the case as Pedro has a .952 OPS since being promoted to AA and once again displays his tremendous power. Pedro has a decent glove although many predict that his future lies at first base. Major League Comparison – Aramis Ramirez
9. Kyle Drabek (PHI) – Son of Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, Kyle was selected in the 2006 draft, where numerous rumours swirled regarding his makeup. Since having Tommy John surgery Drabek has returned better then ever. He works with a mid 90s fastball, hard slider, a 12-6 curveball and an improving changeup. The Phillies think so highly of Drabek that they refused to part with him in a trade for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay. Drabek has dominated at times but needs to show more consistency since he his promotion to AA. Major League Comparison – Roy Oswalt
10. Jenrry Mejia (NYM) - Imagine Neftali Feliz with good secondary pitches. Scary. Jenrry Mejia pumps out fastballs in the mid to high 90s with consistency and compliments it with a changeup/splitter that is just downright nasty. At only 19 years old, Mejia has performed extremely well at High A and Double A, with the ability to get punchouts and groundouts with ease. With better command, watchout! Major League Comparison – Tim Lincecum
11. Yonder Alonso (CIN) – A true professional hitter, Yonder was drafted 7th overall in the 2008 draft. Complete hitter who can hit the ball with power to the opposite field. Homerun totals should increase as he matures and improves his ability to pull the ball with power. Has good plate discipline and a major league ready glove. Scouts believe he has the ability to consistently hit .300 as a middle of the order bat in Cincy. Major League Comparison – Adrian Gonzalez
12. Madison Bumgarner (SF) - Madison Bumgarner has put up impressive numbers while climbing up through the Giants’ minor league system. Armed with a low to mid 90s fastball thrown from a ¾ slot arm angle, the deceptive delivery makes it seem even faster as it jumps up on hitters. The only thing preventing Bumgarner from being recognized as the best pitching prospect in the minors is a lack of a true second pitch. For now he has been getting by with a loopy slurve that needs to be tightened up for continued success. Major League Comparison – C.C. Sabathia
13. Michael Taylor (PHI) – The Phillies refused to include this big specimen in any deal for a pitcher last month and with good reason. A former Stanford standout, Michael Taylor has punished minor league pitchers all season long. He has displayed the exciting combination of power, speed, and patience at the plate. It wont be long before he is smacking balls all around Citizen’s Bank Park. Furthermore, he is a true role model for children who have been battling diabetes as Taylor was diagnosed with Type 1 at age 10. Major League Comparison – Carlos Lee
14. Thomas Neal (SF) – Thomas Neal’s breakout season was exactly what the Giants needed. The Giants desperately need a thumper in the middle of their lineup since the departure of Barry Bonds and Thomas Neal fits the bill perfectly. While he probably will only be able to play LF for the Giants, his bat will more than make up for his defensive shortcomings. He and Sandoval will make for a potent 1-2 punch in the middle of the Giants order with the potential to be a consistent .300+ 30+ HR hitter. Major League Comparison – Albert Belle
15. Austin Jackson (NYY) – Unbelievable athlete, Jackson was a basketball standout before committing to baseball. Among the youngest players in AAA, Jackson has totaled an impressive batting average and stolen base total. While Jackson needs to improve his power, many scouts feel this will develop as he gains more experience. Displays impressive defensive abilities and could potentially be patrolling center for the Yankees in 2010. Major League Comparison – Curtis Granderson
16. Wade Davis (TB) – In most organizations Wade Davis would already be in the major league organization. Unfortunately for him, Tampa Bay is stocked with MLB caliber starters. Davis possesses a true pitcher’s build standing at 6’5”, 220 lbs. He is armed with a 96 MPH fastball and a plus curve and has improved his change and cut fastball. Scouts feel with that with his stuff and build, he has the potential to become a solid #2 starter, although many feel that he would be well suited as a late innings shutdown reliever. Major League Comparison – John Lackey
17. Christian Friedrich (COL) - Coors Field will not be an issue for a guy that has a curveball that falls from the heavens to the depths of hell. Christian Friedrich has an excellent fastball/curveball combination with impeccable control. His ability to carve up hitters and limiting the number of baserunners by issuing very few walks, Friedrich has the potential to be a front of the rotation starter for the Colorado Rockies. Major League Comparison – Erik Bedard
18. Matt LaPorta (CLE) – Acquired in the Sabathia deal, Laporta has an impact MLB ready bat. While he is never going to be confused for a great fielder, he is serviceable enough to hold down a corner OF spot and scouts feel he is still improving in this area. Laporta has plus power and is benefited by his patience at the plate. Many scouts believe he is a three outcome hitter who is likely to walk, strikeout, or homer. Major League Comparison – Adam Dunn
19. Jaff Decker (SD) - Don’t let his size fool you, Jaff Decker carries a big stick. Since being drafted, Decker has done nothing but flat out hit. With excellent power, and plate discipline that is beyond his years, Decker looks like an all-star caliber outfielder for the Padres. Surprisingly athletic, Decker should succeed in RF. Although Petco will hurt his power numbers, Decker should be good for 25+ HRs, a .300+ average, and a ton of walks. Major League Comparison – Brian Giles (good version)
20. Ryan Westmoreland (BOS) – Fell to the 5th round due to his contract demands, but received top 15 bonus money in the 2008 draft. Has a cannon for an arm and was a top high school pitching prospect, throwing a perfect game and striking out 19 of 21 in his senior season. Has five tool talent with plus power and plus-plus speed according to Kevin Goldstein. Has shown good plate discipline to date but needs to cut down the strikeout total. Major League Comparison – Grady Sizemore
21. Jordan Lyles (HOU) - Considered an ‘overdraft’ by the Astros, Lyles has quickly silenced the critics with his performance this year. A slight adjustment in Lyles’ delivery made by the Astros has increased the velocity on his fastball from high 80s to mid 90s. In addition to his fastball, his breaking ball and changeup have improved considerably with much more consistency. He is one of the few shining stars in the Astros farm system, a true gem. Major League Comparison – Matt Cain
22. Dee Gordon (LAD) – Son of MLB pitcher Tom Gordon, Dee is thriving this season in a tough hitting environment with the Great Lake Loons. Has game changing speed and already possesses major league caliber range, however needs to cut down the mental errors if he hopes to stay at shortstop in the major leagues. Only 150 lbs, he has the potential to add power as he fills out. Major League Comparison – Jimmy Rollins
23. Jason Knapp (PHI) - Seen as the ‘centerpiece’ in the deal that sent Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to the Phillies, the Indians got themselves a young kid possessed with tremendous stuff. Armed with a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and improving secondary offerings, Knapp is going to be a strikeout artist at the Major League level. If he avoids further injury and not lose valuable development time, Knapp should become a frontline starter. Major League Comparison – Josh Beckett
24. Ben Revere (MIN) – The Twins were questioned when selecting Revere in the 1st round but he has shown that they made a wise decision. He is known for his excellent makeup and possessing blazing speed. In fact, Revere was the fastest player in the 2007 draft. Has shown great contact ability but little power to date. However, he does not just hit grounders, as scouts are very impressed with his ability to hit line drives all over the diamond. His upside has been compared to Ichiro by Mr. Sickels and we can’t argue. Major League Comparison – Ichiro Suzuki
25. ???
Believe it or not Dewey Finn & King Billy Royal could not come to an agreement on the 25th best prospect in our rankings. We would like the community’s help to decide this.
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Comments
2 things
comparing any prospect with Lincecum is absurd.
prepare to die for not ranking “god” #1.
baseball rules.
RE: Lincecum
I don’t believe he is a one of a kind player.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
i want to say fair enough...
but…i dunno. i think he is. he has 3 plus-plus pitches and rapidly improving command/control of all of them. i don’t think his kind of pitch repertoire is matched.
baseball rules.
+1
If only Lincecum sat 98-99 with tons of movement and had the best curve and change in baseball as well as a plus slider…
Pedro in his prime was hands down the best RHP pitcher ever. It really cant be overstated.
check out Pedro's peripherals in '97
compare them to Lincecum’s ’09.
Realize that Pedro was a year older than Lincecum is now.
You’ll see that the difference really is that Pedro struck out a shade more per game, and had more BABIP luck.
Now, Pedro ‘98-’02 was a completely different level, but it’s not asinine to think that, like Pedro, Lincecum can still get a lot better. He’s already shown striking improvement each of the last two years.
Im talking stuff-wise
I would say you should do your analysis again and adjust for run scoring environment as well.
considering Lincecums change up could be considered the best pitch in baseball, and other pitches are also plus pitches, I’d say his stuff is just fine.
This post does a good job explaining how great Lincecums change up is compared to the rest of baseball http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2009/8/3/973686/tim-lincecum-has-the-best-pitch-in
I'm talking '97
If you want to say that Pedro had three of the best pitches in baseball in ‘97, well then, you’d be wrong.
No, Id be right
There was an SI article about it in 99, at least. Best fastball, best curve, best (circle)change.
Awww, you got me
So when Pedro was 3 years older than Lincecum is now, he had the three best pitches in baseball?
You don’t say.
That certainly contradicts what I’ve said in two posts now.
Oh wait, no it doesn’t. Not at all.
So, just to step back here
b/c Im not sure what youre arguing here. My initial response was a “+1” to you. I was agreeing with you and now you seem to be trying to make some distinction here – Im not getting it.
Youre saying Tim Lincecum has comparable stuff to Pedro Martinez? Or that he could have comparable stuff at some point in the next few years?
Is that really the point youre trying to make here? Is Lincecum going to add 5 mph to his fastball, learn to throw any pitch in any count and learn to change speeds like vintage Gagne?
No one had as good stuff as vintage Pedro. I sort of doubt anyone ever will. I guess Strasburg has a chance if the reports are right and his secondary stuff takes a huge leap forward. Lincecum might be the best pitcher in baseball right now, but he would have to make some major improvements (unlikely) to be as good as Pedro’s stuff in his prime. Its practically impossible, IMO. Again, that’s really nothing against Lincecum.
exactly
Lets see Lincecum pitch a few years before we even consider him in the same sentence as Pedro Martinez. For now, he can’t even carry his jock.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I'm arguing
that Lincecum’s performance thus far in ‘09 is on par with Pedro’s ’97 when Pedro was a year older than Lincecum.
You seem to see Pedro’s name and assume that I’m saying Lincecum now is as good as Pedro at his apex. That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying Lincecum now is as good as Pedro in ‘97. Like Pedro leading up to his ’97 breakout, Lincecum has already made huge strides in his stuff and command the last two years. Pedro was not at his top in ’97. He didn’t have three of the best pitches in the game in ‘97. I’m not comparing Lincecum ‘09 to Pedro ’99. I’m comparing Lincecum ’09 to Pedro ’97. Big difference.
My argument is that potentially, like Pedro did in the following years, he can continue to make strides in his stuff and command and that it would not surprise me to see Lincecum put up ‘99-’02 Pedroesque numbers within the next few years.
Everyone sees Pedro as a God and scoffs at the notion that any could possibly put up numbers like him. But they said the same thing about Nolan Ryan before Clemens came along and about Willy Mays before Bonds and about Manny before Pujols.
Pedro's '99-'03 was the best stretch by a pitcher, ever.
It wouldn’t surprise you to see Lincecum turn into the best pitcher in history over the next few years?
differece
between predicting it and being surprised by it.
At the rate he’s improved the last two years, no, I wouldn’t be surprised by it, because Lincecum currently already has a sub 2 FIP, something Randy Johnson, Clemens, and Maddux never accomplished.
So if he continues to improve as he enters his prime over the next 2-3 years, it’s not really that much of a leap.
I agree with the above post
and why would you not rank Heyward 1st? Heyward also has more speed and power than Markakis. Also, if your MLB comps hold up, why would a player compared to Lincy not be ahead of a player compared to Oswalt? Also, I think the Dunn comp is better suited for Stanton.
RE: MLB Comps
We used the MLB comparisons to illustrate potential upsides of the players if everything goes right.
Some prospects with higher upsides are ranked lower because they have more to prove, that’s all.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
If you are comparing Stanton to Dunn you probably shouldn't criticize anyone else's comps!!!!! LOL!!!!!!
Stanton is an excellent athelete and considered a great defender.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don't understand why people assume
that since Dunn is a horrible fielder that he’s a horrible athlete.
Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez are also horrible athletes.
The guy is big as hell, but he’s actually quite a good athete.
Agreed
He stole 10-15 bases a season in his early career.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Then compare him to fucking Mark Reynolds
Not Dave Winfield. You guys simply crave attention and make these lists. Even your masturbatory introduction show that without a shred of doubt.
Ummmmm
Do you know that lots of sources are comparing Stanton to Winfield? Here are some sources:
http://www.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=519317
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/sports/content/sports/epaper/2009/02/20/0220marlins.html
http://marlinsnation.com/tag/mike-stanton/
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Also....
Judging by your pent up hostility I would recommend that you do a bit of ‘masturbatory introduction’ to yourself and perhaps that will calm you down. ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Honestly, looking it over again
your comps seen arbitrary and are either those that other professional scouts have made, or just random.
+1
I respect you guys, and Love you both.
Hopefully that’s a miss right there.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Just missed the cut
Perhaps at the end of the season, he might sneak into our Top 25.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
There's A LOT of people missing
Logan Morrison?
Chris Carter?
Freddy Freeman?
Dom Brown?
Neftali Feliz?
Beckham?
Wallace?
Lars?
Latos?
Parker?
Alices Escobar?
25
When you take off guys who don’t belong in the discussion for top 50, like Gordon, Mejia, Knapp, Lyles, Revere, etc.
They’re doing well in A ball for the most part. This entire list is all potential upside and just ignores guys that are actually performing at higher levels.
Austin Jackson
was the least comprehensible pick, I thought. He has a .782 OPS with a BABIP that close to .400. He has little power but strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk a lot. He’s fast, but not that fast. I wouldn’t put him in the top 100
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 6, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
AJax
As Kevin Goldstein would say, “bet on the tools”.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
This list
is an A ball all-star team.
If only Carlos Santana could be less good, moved down to A ball, so he could have a 1.200 OPS, then maybe he’d make your list.
I disagree
Over 60% of the players listed on our list are at least at the AA level.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Eh
His BABIP is usually pretty high (around .360ish) and he has .060 points worth of walks. He is definitely fast (21/24 SB)
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on Aug 7, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Even if that were true
That his BABIP will stay at .360, then his slash lines would drop to .267/.330/.382. That’s Juan Pierre with less speed.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
The power will come
Believe in your eyes and the scouting reports. This guy is a five tool guy waiting to happen.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
really?
Mejia, Knapp, Lyles and Revere don’t deserve Top 50 consideration? I’m pretty sure almost every list has those guys somewhere on it…..
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 7, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Woah, woah, woah...
Mejia is absolutely in the discussion for top 50. Have you SEEN him pitch?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
+ a million Galt
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
ALL good prospects
But we feel that the players compiled on our list have more to offer.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
You think Knapp has more to offer than Parker and Latos?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Parker
He was going to make the list until we learned of his visit to an associate of Dr. Andrews.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
timeframe
You realize prospect lists aren’t meant to evaluate the promise of a prospect for the next 12 months, but for like 15 years, right?
Even if Parker has TJ surgery, it will delay his trip to the majors by a year or two. In the grand scheme of his career, it is borderline immaterial.
Would you retroactively lower Josh Johnson on prospect lists because you knew he was going to miss time?
The success rate of TJ surgery is overwhelmingly positive, and it’s getting to the point where it’s almost a benefit to a pitcher to have it done.
I'm sorry
BUT, coming back from TJ surgery is FAR from guaranteed. Ask Hong Chi Kuo.
Such a major injury definitely darkens the outlook on the player.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Success rate of TJ surgey...
There is only 70-80% success rate according to this article: http://espn.go.com/trainingroom/s/2000/0315/427112.html
Other articles state that the failure rate is 10-15% and most of these instances happen in younger pitchers (i.e. Parker): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3486
That is enough to drop him out of our top 25
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
If you guys are so skeptical
about the possibility of TJS…why rank somebody in the top 10 who’s had it?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Easy
Because we have already seen how Drabek has come back from it. Many guys struggle after their returns.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
Parker still hasn’t it yet, however, nor has it been talked about…so it seems ridiculous to me to drop him before anything official happens.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
+1
Put this into context. This is a prized prospect, there have been ZERO reports that he is having surgery. This being extremely careful.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I can see that
If Parker doesn’t end up having a serious issue then we will likely include him in our revised list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
What?!
Parker is going to have Tommy John? Damn…
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 9, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
c'mon
Knapp, Frederick, Revere, Gordon, Lyles – they are just tearing up A ball. Yeah, some of them are 22, but it’s “A” BALL!!!!
What are Carter, Latos, Logan Morrison, Neftali Feliz and them doing? Ohhhhh, fine they are the same age, and doing awesome in AA or some of them even in the majors, but, wait, what’s my point?
Is A ball better or is AAA better?
Sometimes
You gotta look past the level, and look at the player and what skills they have.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
tough to measure that accurately
when they are playing against people 3 years younger than them (Frederick, Revere, etc) and horrible A level talent.
That’s why people usually value phenomenal production in AA (like Chris Carter) over horrible, yet fast production in A (like Dee Gordon), because they are facing tougher competition.
Meethinks you are clouded by fantasy categories and are putting way too much weight into batting average, steals, and strikeouts regardless of what level they play or how old they are.
I disagree
We take into account tools, skills, stuff… NOT just age level performance.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
RE: Carlos Santana
KBR and I both agreed that he has become extremely overrated. He is a solid catching prospect, but the track record of catchers living up to their potential leaves us skeptical. We ranked Posey highly because we feel has the higher upside and the potential for reaching in contrast to a guy like Santana.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Why is he overrated?
Not saying he’s not, just wondering what your reasoning is.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Well
We don’t believe he will stick at catcher, and while the bat is decent, it won’t be as valuable at another position. KBR and I agreed that Lou Marson is the Tribe’s future backstop.
For all we know, Santana could be the next Jeff Mathis.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Yes
Lou Marson and his sub .100 IsoP, he’ll go well with the rest of your lineup of guys who will never ever ever ever be able to hit in the pros due to their little league level of power like Revere and Dee Gordon.
Marson
Is very underrated. While don’t regard him as an elite prospect to make the list, we do feel that he will be an excellent back stop for the Indians. Good hitter, good defense.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
The next Jeff Mathis?!
What in the world do those two have in common? Santana has a nearly 1:1 BB:K ratio in his minor league career, Mathis had a 1:2 BB:K ratio. Santana posted an OPS around 1.000 last year and he has posted a .930 OPS this year in Double-A. Jeff Mathis’ highest OPS after Double-A has been .843. I think really have missed the boat on Santana. Even if he plays 1B or is a DH, he could easily carry a .400 OBP and have a .500 SLG. At catcher, that’s pure gold, at 1B, that’s still high quality.
Wont stick at catcher
Reviews about his D have been positive, as well as his bat. Where are you getting that from?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
There was some speculative chatter about it after the Marson trade
There was an article in the LA Times where “Dodgers sources” at the time of the Blake trade said that they didn’t think Santana’s defense would play at the MLB level, which is why they traded him. Mark Shapiro was then quoted as saying that Marson is an every day catcher, and that Santana needs another year in the minors to work on his defense. The writer then speculated that Santana could be moved off of the position.
I’d link to the article, but it seems that the Times already purged it from their site.
That being said, I also think that Santana sticks at catcher and is an elite prospect.
hmm
is that Dodger spin? Shapiro may be motivating santana a bit there.
Exactly
I could see the Dodgers saying they didn’t believe in Santana’s ability to stay at catcher to try and make the Blake trade look a little better. By that same token, I could see Shapiro talking up Marson since the Indians got a “less than expected” return on Lee.
It’s all speculation at this point, but like daveh says above, one writer isn’t enough for me to change my mind. More evidence to that end, then maybe I become a believer.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Chacin
Just wondering where Jhoulys would sit on your list.
Probably around 35
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
you dont get to have your own opinion
when its as stupid as evidenced above. my retarded brother could have made a better list simply through random selection.
Thank you for the constructive criticism
Love you!
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
writeups
Although I don’t necessarily agree with all of the evaluations, nice work on giving your reasons for the respective rankings.
Thank you
We don’t expect everyone to agree with our rankings. If we wanted everyone to agree we would have just reposted the Baseball America midseason report. This is our list and we created it using scouting reports, numbers, experts opinions, and our own gut feelings (i.e. Do we like what we have seen from a player). We know that not everyone will like the list, but hopefully we get a good discussion going.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Speak for yourself.
Thinking it matters whether a prospect you like lands at 35 rather than 25 shows that what you know isn’t really worth knowing.
+1
Agreed. It’s one thing to just throw out names, but you guys gave explanations and MLB player comps, which is helpful. Although many will disagree (it’s no fun if everyone just says “you’re right”!), includind myself with some rank or players, each list has its own intrinsic value to the universe of prospecting.
by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 6, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
much appreciated
We wanted to show our perspective, not just a list of names. Thanks for identifying this.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
KBR
So you have time for this, but no Power Rankings?
Hahaha Just playing man.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
one of the most underrated prospects in baseball
Gonna be a HUGE RBI machine for the Giants.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
That would very much depend on his place in the order,
and the OBP of the players hitting ahead of him. Judging by the Giants’ propensity for low OBPs, I’d say it’s probably a stretch to say any Giants prospect is “gonna be a HUGE RBI machine”.
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone got any good links or articles on the value of RBI as a statistic?
It seems like there is two different camps on RBI’s as a meaningful statistic.
The “they were lucky there were players on base in front of them” camp,
and the “clutch hitters get more RBI’s thus proving their intrensic value” camp.
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
camps
that would be: i) reality campy versus ii) fantasy camp.
I am overstating it. I have been on both sides of this, because actually there is some very slight evidence of “clutch,” I have seen, not really meaningful. And of course some people do just happen to lie on one side of the “better with risp,” and players in general are a litle better with risp, but the distribution is no different than what you’d expect at random, but tell it to Mrs. Eddie Murray while she spends some more of Eddie’s money.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-color-of-clutch/
The two camps:
“RBIs are a bizarre waste of everyone’s time” camp.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Anyway
I appreciate the effort, and it’s good to stick your neck out and publish something that you can refer to.
I’ve made no secret that I think this list is just dreadful because I think you left out much more established & performing prospects (Chris Carter, Carlos Santana, Mat Latos, Morrison, Feliz) so that you can include a bunch of guys who are doing well against crappy competition in A ball, many of which are 3 years younger. Gordon, Mejia, Revere, Frederick, Lyles, etc.
I have a hunch that the vast majority of people who produce lists like these for a living will not have most of your A/A- guys on their lists. That doesn’t mean they are right and you aren’t, but I tend to put weight on the wisdom of crowds, and you just have some massive massive, unexplainable outliers.
by Galt on Aug 7, 2009 12:14 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
+a lot
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
while
I do think the list is a little too high on soe guys (I am sure folks would feel that way about my list) it should be noted that Mejia has indeed pitched in AA. Not much. but then again, Logan Morrison, for example, hasn’t had all that many at-bats in AA either. Sure, a few more at bats than Mejia has batters faced, but not a huge difference. They are both relatively small samples.
I like some of this list
I hate some other parts
I’ll just list the hatred parts. Why waste time on compliments?
So anyway, I am rather perplexed at some of your MLB comparisons:
First off, Pedro Alvarez and Aramis Ramirez? Have you seen either of them play?
I used to train at the same facility as Alvarez in the Bronx, watched him play at Horace Mann, and watched him play at Vandy. The guy is nothing like Ramirez. First off, he has a totally different build, is much less quick on his feet, and has a totally different swing than Ramirez. The philosophy of Alvarez’s swing is to end all of the upper body weight on the front leg. The goal of his swing is simply to get the bat head out on contact. Ramirez’s approach is much more methodical, and it deals with keeping the weight centered to generate torque.
Also why is Kyle Drabek in ANYONE’S Top 10? He’s a polished pitcher yes, but also an injury risk and not much of a huge talent. Seems more like a Kyle Lohse comp than Roy Oswalt, especially since Oswalt is a groundball pitcher with a 20 inch curve.
Also, this is a beef with Bummy that I have that nobody else seems to: Where is the second pitch? I don’t care how hard the guy can throw is fastball. He’s a setup man at best without a passable second pitch.
Also, Michael Taylor could be CARLOS LEE? The same fat, slow, power hitter who swings at everything? This doesn’t exactly sound like Michael Taylor to me….
And Austin Jackson? The guy has some wheels and a half a season of hitting under his belt, plus solid discipline…. And? And what? A .130 ISO? A solid batting average? His numbers are downright pedestrian. And the Granderson comp makes sense in a way that their plate discipline, speed, average ability and strike-outiness were similar in the minors, but you completely disregard the fact that Granderson was like 4 years older per league and was an absolute XBH machine unlike Jackson. Better comp for Jackson: Melky Cabrera.
Also: Matt LaPorta and Adam Dunn.
Were you just picking names out of hats?
I’m sure you were just comparing their minor league numbers, but come on, you shouldn’t disregard Adam Dunn’s numbers. Do you really think that Laporta will hit .240 every year and hit 40 HR? Maybe you should’ve tried harder to find somone ELSE with similar minor league numbers, as the odds of there being a hitter like Adam Dunn or even close to him in the bigs even are like 1 in 1,000. Only other player I can think of like Dunn is Ryan Howard
Carlos Lee
Did you know that Lee used to be fast before he ate himself into the state he is in today?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure there are players currently playing that are similar to the way Carlos Lee USED to be
That’d likely work better as a comparison for the people only looking at current players. Choo and Markakis kind of stand out to me.
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Kinda
He wasn’t really fast — didn’t play a fast man’s position (third base — moved to left field due to lack of range and reactions to play there)
Also he was terrible at stealing (Ever see him with a SB success rate over 70%?)
In addition he wasn’t exactly a sensei when it came to patience at the plate. In the minors his .306 BA was paired with a pedestrian .341 OBP. w00t.
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 7, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Carlos Lee had a five-year stretch where he stole 61 bases in 76 attempts.
He has nearly a 75% success rate for his career.
Is it too hard to actually look things up rather than spouting things off of the top of your head?
Sorry
I thought we were talking about MINOR LEAGUE numbers
like when he went 18-for-30, and then 18-for-31.
And in the bigs he stole 61 bases in 5 years in his prime, and has a career 73.8% success rate.
Doesn’t seem like he had A-Jax speed to me…
Who compared Lee to Jackson?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Whoops
Meant Michael Taylor — the guy who’s 20-for-24 so far between AA and AAA
Only other player I can think of like Dunn is Ryan Howard
What?
Dunn walks a lot, Ryan Howard does not.
You are right, Dunn is one in the 1,200 players the 30 teams’ 40-man roster lists.
Jack Cust is actually fairly similar to Adam Dunn
He’s not as good, but he’s SIMILAR
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
No it wasn't
That is a great comparison. In fact, nothing is ‘lazy’ or ‘terrible’ about this post. It is brilliance personafied.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Granderson was 23 in AA
Austin Jackson is 22 in AA. That’s a one year difference. I do agree, though, that Granderson’s substantially greater power makes him much better than Jackson is likely to become
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Jackson is 22 in AAA
He is one of the youngest guys at this level.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
2 year difference
but the main point is, that Jackson doesn’t have Granderson power, but in every other insignificant way he is similar
doesn't have the power yet...but it will come.
Great swing and should eventually be good for 20 HRs a year.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Based on what, exactly?
This is from my Top 101 prospect list back in November:
And, for Jackson, it was his lack of any sort of professional statistical prowess, ever. Look at his seasonal output, park- and luck-neutralized per minorleaguesplits.com:
These are not the statistics of a top prospect, especially considering Jackson’s mediocre tools (compared to other players here). In a comment following the last list, I dug deep into Jackson’s stats and found that the entire base of his value came from exactly 3 good months, displayed here (again, neutralized for park and luck):
These 3 months are so out of whack with the rest of his career that Jackson’s 4th best month was .120 points lower than the 3rd in OPS. When you’ve been a professional baseball player for 4 seasons, and 21 months, and exactly 3 of those 21 months are clearly good… Well, that doesn’t exactly constitute a great argument to call that player a top prospect.
Where the hell are you getting projected 20 homer power from? His couple good months over a 4 year career? Another gut feeling?
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
his swing
It has the potential to generate 20 HRs as he fills out.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
go here...
http://www.prospecttube.com/video/austin-jackson-2009-aaa-all
at the 52 second mark, you see why I think he has 20 HR power.
BOOYAH!
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
So based on one swing., but you hate Fernando Martinez because of small sample size.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well let's not try making any sense here RSF...
Come on.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
pretty sure his swing is consistent
are you saying it changes game from game? Get real. Make like Galt and do the walk of shame. Grab your pumps and leave the hotel room.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Um.
If his swing was consistently power-producing, you would have told me to check out 0:02, 0:08, 0:18, etc.
You only told me to check out 0:52.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
when he makes contact, dumb dumb
you can see the ability to really drive the ball.
are you gonna continue argung for a failed point?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Uh, his point isn't "failed". It's quite legit.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Not a huge jackson fan
but what is the phrase, a talent shown is a talent owned? Pretty sure I don’t have that quite right, but he ISO’d 242 and .235 over 2 months in a row last year, at a fairly young age in AA in your own samples. Not to suggest that is his level, but it seems like he does have some power potential, even if he isn’t Curtis Granderson.
Yes, and as I showed in my samples
He quickly reverted right back to his mediocre career lines. Like I said, he got literally all of his value from 3 good months (prior to this season, where he has been admittedly OK).
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right
Because the point is kind of weak. Showing high ISOP numbers over two months isn’t evidence of any exceptional ability – it is just as likely that he was just hot those two months. What’s more indicative is that over a few years in the minors, he has shown little power, and few scouts have told us to expect much more
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 8, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
HR Power comes
to a 22-year-old who hits doubles and triples to begin with, unless you’re talking about Hanley Ramirez…. Also Jackson is a healthy 185 LBS… Can’t imagine if he put on 20 more pounds of muscle that’d he stay in center….
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 8, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Jackson's tools quite a bit
but I dont think he’s much of a hitter.
With Granderson – its almost like the Ryan Howard comps we get. Or HanRam. Can you really predict a guy who’s been fairly unimpressive to make a bunch of major strides in his game late…? I wouldnt bet on most guys jumping forward like Granderson did… hell, take me back in time and knowing what I know now I would still probably bet against Granderson being anything good.
Wondering about some reasoning...
Why…
Dee Gordon over Alcides Escobar?
Thomas Neal over Chris Carter and Logan Morrison?
Kyle Drabek over Neftali Feliz and Mat Latos?
I don’t see any logic for any of those selections.
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
Eh
Personally, I never liked Escobar as a hitter. No power and little patience which is a bad combo for success at the major league level. As for Latos, I’m assuming they’re ignoring anyone in the majors right now. Surely, Mat will use up his eligibility by the end of the season ….
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 7, 2009 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh Really?
So there are at least a dozen guys better than Cashner???? He of the 2.72 FIP, 1.63 GO/AO, 2.9 K/BB at the AA level. Your AL bias is showing again.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Aug 7, 2009 5:46 AM EDT up reply actions
72 innings.
40 of them in A+. And yes, there are a dozen guys better than Cashner
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Cashner.
Its not about him only – there are lots of guys listed in this top 25 who wouldnt be in my top 25.
silly
Consider that there are 11 guys on BA’s midseason top 25 list that are not on this list. Taking those 11 as a hypothetical starting point for players he might like, is it really a stretch to think that a person that follows the minors might like the BA guys and a handful of other guys more than they like the 5 players on the poll?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, people get FAR too worked up about the specific ordering of prospect lists. For the professionals that make these lists for a living (Law, Goldstein, etc.) the difference between the 25th ranked prospect on a list and the 50th ranked prospect on the same list is so small that it’s bordering on meaningless.
Agreed
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, people get FAR too worked up about the specific ordering of prospect lists. For the professionals that make these lists for a living (Law, Goldstein, etc.) the difference between the 25th ranked prospect on a list and the 50th ranked prospect on the same list is so small that it’s bordering on meaningless.
Dewey and I wanted to make a list that reflected our opinions. There is no point just rehashing the BA midseason 25 list. These are the guys we like according to our criteria (stats, scouting, experts opinions, gut feeling). People often get upset about a prospect on the list but sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn’t. I remember when John posted that Lowrie was an A- prospect, half the site flipped out and slammed him. While I never agreed with his opinion on Lowrie, it is better then him just going along with the crowd.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
its hilarious
heyward not only has the best skillset of any minor leaguer, he also has the best production. smoak is behind him in every skill and hes a few years younger.
hilarious. lmao @ austin jackson’s inclusion. his tools arent even special for a guy with ok production.
Action Jackson
Age relative to league matters. This guy is one of the youngest players in AAA and is more than holding his own. We love his tools and feel that he will continue to blossom as he matures. We don’t expect everyone to like our rankings but at least we are glad you are able to ‘lmao’.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Who cares if he's one of the youngest players in AAA
If he’s putting up pedestrain numbers? All that tells you is he probably was rushed to AAA. How does it say anything about his standing as a prospect? Or his potential or ability?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Fernando Martinez is twice the prospect Austin Jackson is.
Injuries are concerning, but if age relative to league matter, he is younger, the youngest in triple A in fact, and put up much better numbers and didn’t have a ridiculously high, unsustainable BABIP inflating his average like Jackson does.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
For some reason the rest of my post got cut
Fernando was the youngest player in triple a and put up much better numbers than Austin Jackson did. Obviously Fernando’s OBP is low, but he still has time to develop seeing that he still can’t legally drink, but everything else was there this year. Jackson has almost no power, strikes out a ton and has a highly inflated average (.307) due to an absurd .400 BABIP. He also has time to develop, but right now Fernando is without a doubt a better prospect.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
FMart
One of the most overrated prospects in the history of baseball IMHO.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I don't know
Granted it was only 170 ABs, but he looked awfully good in AAA this year
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
Why? He's 20, has a RIDICULOUS FB/HR and has produced in AAA.
How many prospects can say that?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Age relative to league matters
but the guy who had a solid .540 SLG in the league at age 20 is nowhere near the Top 25?
The thing that bothers me about the Heyward thing
Isn’’t really the placement, but rather the comp…Nick Markakis?!?!
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Oh, that's not what I'm saying
He’s an excellent player — I’m just not seeing how those two are comparable.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Seems pretty accurate to me
Very solid contact skills, 25-30 HR power, very good defense, plus arm, good plate discipline.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
exactly
They are VERY similar, lefty, RF, to name a few more…
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Sometimes you have to look past skin color to make a comparison dude.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
And you assume I had a problem with it because of skin color?
Yes, that’s why I recently compared Chris Carter to Jason Bay.
Come on, man.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
wasn't directed at you specifically
Just a general observation of people only compare white prospects to white major leaguers and black with black. I’ve seen such prejudice. You’re good, don’t worry.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
If Morrison missed the list...
what do you guys think his upside/ chance of reaching it are?
safe bet...
To be Lyle Overbay. Solid major leaguer, nothing special, nothing stands out.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Overbay was
in the Pioneer League at 22. Morrison will be 22 next year. And Overbay never had this kind of walk rate, although it is out of line with the rest of Morrison’s career as well.
Overbay did rake a few years in the minors. He had some nice major league years but has tailed off.
Overbay??????
I’m really curious to hear how you believe Morrison has very little power, yet A Jax will hit 20 HRs a year. You do know that Morrison has flashed SIGNIFICANTLY more power in his minor league career thus far. His 13 HRs last year are more a reflection on just how tough a league/park he had to deal with rather than actualy lack of ability. He did hit 26 HRs in low A ball 2 years ago after all….
Morrison is a top 25 prospect. Heck, I’d rather have him in my system than pretty much anyone outside your top 10.
Tillman
Fine pitching prospect, but I have serious concerns about his flyball tendencies in Camden. We feel Matusz is one of the safest bets to reach his potential.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Tillman/Camden
I recall you didn’t think as highly as some others of Hanson coming into this year due to his flyball tendencies as well, not sure if pitching in Atlanta effected your opinion much or not.
In my view, not that it is necessarily the right one, where a player is going to play his home games does not have anything to do with where he ranks as a prospect. That can effect his stats, not how good he actually is.
None of which is to say Tillman is better than Matusz. And flyball tendency is something reasonable to consider.
RE: Hanson
Although he has pitched reasonably well thus far, the HRs are gonna be a big problem for him. Once the scouting book gets around to all the NL teams that he likes to pitch up in the zone, Hanson will have a very sore neck.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
just recalling
your knock on hanson. I agree he has been a little lucky on the homer rate thus far. I tend to think the homer rate will increase, but also the k rate. Something like I see his peripherals coming to meet his e.r.a. And to bring it full circle, sure, the homer or flyball rate is something to watch-I just don’t let the park effect my opinion. maybe in Coors I’d be worried about his development, but otherwise I don’t let the ballpark, or subsequent effect on e.r.a., color my opinion of the talent.
MAtusz
sorry for the ignorance of not looking it up, but isn’t he also a fly ball pitcher?
Tillman vs Matusz
Tillman minor league GO/FO ratio this year is 0.98
Matusz minor league GO/FO ratio this year is 1.32
HUGE difference.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Thanks
no need for the bold letters though
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 8, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
You lost me at Dave Winfield
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
This list is pathetic
Stanton has a great shot at being the next Chris Davis 2009 version.
Disagree
Athleticism and Walk Rate.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Wow, giving up on Chris Davis already?
I wish you were in my keeper league.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
The fact that Carlos Santana isn’t on this list while he’s a top 15 prospect (and that might be conservative), and you guys even defending it saying he’s overrated and he won’t stick behind the plate, makes you lose all credibility. Have you even read up on him, see what scouts say, what the team officials think?
RE: Carlos Santana
The Tribe envisions Carlos Santana as their 1B/3B rather than C. They acquired Lou Marson because they feel is he much better defensively and better for the pitching staff. Santana’s bat isn’t as sexy if he isn’t playing catcher, that’s all.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Would mind
linking to the source for this? Not saying it’s impossible of course, but if I remember right you had some kind of “info/data” about Brett Anderson (that lead you to rank him as a B in the big blowup of the offseason) that you never shared with us as far as I can recall, so excuse me if I’d prefer to see some proof of this assertion. If you could do that, it would be much appreciated.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Can I post pay content?
Dont wanna break the rules of the forum.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Just tell me where to find it
and I can go from there. I believe if it’s pay content you can post a link to it, because anyone without subscriber access wouldn’t be able to read it anyway, right? Also, I think you could post a snippet of the article along with the link and it’s kosher.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Sounds good
I will talk to KBR and get him to give me the info so I can post.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
one of the free sites that I can disclose
Was Indians Prospects Insider. It had some comments from management regarding the acquisition of Marson and the future of Carlos Santana following Vmart’s trade.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
ok...
http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/
Were you spoon fed until highschool??!?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Are you retarded?
The links from reputable sources and people that the supports the actual bullshit claims you are making. Not the site or the newspaper.
Post it.
Words which support the claim, which you are absolutely, 100%, making up.
I’m not going to scour the internet to find claims which don’t exist on random sites.
comments from team officials
are pretty reputable in my book.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
You're 0-5
In terms of actually providing any support after repeated requests. You not being able to actually link the words you are claiming as true is a pretty clear indicator that you are making it up.
OR
Perhaps I don’t want to succumb to your lil hissy fit and give you what you want. You sound like a broken record.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Then don't indulge him
Link me to the exact thing you’re talking about, as I missed it on that site and was the person in this line that originally asked for the links. I found plenty of stuff that contradicted your position on the very site you mentioned, so if I missed something there, please point me to it directly so I can see it. Please.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Ok, it's settled
You made it up. You can produce absolutely no information supporting your claim that Indians management sees Carlos Santana as anything but their long term catcher.
Fatality.
My work here is done. Everyone else can pick at the scraps. I’m moving on.
bye Galt
Enjoy your walk of shame Captain Oblivious.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
This is from your newsletter link
“While the Victor Martinez trade was mostly about money and adding some high level pitching talent to the organization, it was also about clearing the way for Santana. With Martinez now gone, Santana is the everyday catcher in waiting. He has a major league ready bat, hitting .282 with 19 HR, 78 RBI, and a .931 OPS in 101 games with Double-A Akron this year. He also has an impressive walk to strikeout ratio of 69 walks to just 64 strikeouts in 330 at bats.”
— Your is a terrible list. Leaving off Carlos Santana is indefensible.
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
I concur,
I’m not a fan of Santana, and I’ve been rebuffed due to the fact that I said he’d be on the outskirts of the top 25, but with some of the talent you’ve added to your list, Santana should be rated higher than about 60% of your list
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Ok
From a quick glance at that site I find the following info:
From a converastion with Kevin Goldstein about the prospects acquired in the Lee deal:
“Is he as good a catching prospect as Carlos Santana? No. But, he is a guy where scouts have him as a big league catcher. So something has to budge there one way or another. I don’t know if Victor [Martinez] is going to move or they are just going to do what they maybe should have done awhile ago and just make Victor the first baseman. But, Marson is either going to be flipped or hold the job down for a year until Santana is ready.”
From the Indians organization:
“Marson is a young, athletically gifted player who has shown the ability to succeed offensively while playing a premium defensive position. His sophisticated approach at the plate, on-base skills, and defensive profile fit well with the priorities of our club, and we see him as an advanced player for his age and experience level.”
From an AL scout the author of the site spoke with:
Carlos Santana: An electric bat and arm with an unbelievable ability to square up the ball and hit it hard. Rifle arm, though still working on nuances of game behind the plate. Clearly a top ten prospect in all of baseball.
Later in the same post where he mentions the conversation with the scout:
“What that means is to start the 2010 season the Indians will likely have Lou Marson, Toregas, and Gimenez all on the 25-man roster to catch and be stop gap options while the Indians await Carlos Santana to be ready for regular catching duties in the big leagues. Marson and Toregas would split time at catcher, with Gimenez more a third catcher and utility type player.
Santana could win the job in spring training, but the most likely course of action will be him starting the 2010 season in Triple-A Columbus and get a callup in June or July. This is much how they handled Victor Martinez in 2003 where he was coming off a Double-A MVP season in 2002, and while 2003 was a rebuilding year they went with Josh Bard and Tim Laker from the outset and had Martinez open in Triple-A Buffalo before calling him up midseason. Still, expect to see Santana in Cleveland this year for a cup of coffee as a September callup."
On Marson debut with Columbus:
“He is widely viewed by many in the game as a major league starting catcher, and he could soon get that chance in Cleveland next season while Carlos Santana gets more seasoning and Kelly Shoppach is likely traded.”
From their Minor League Player of the Week(Santana):
“In any case, once Akron’s season is finished, Santana is expected to be called up to Cleveland for a cup of coffee since rosters will be expanded in September. He’ll get a taste of the big league atmosphere and get a few games under his belt to set him up for the 2010 season where he will likely spend most of the season in Cleveland. He probably won’t be the catcher right out of the gate when the season starts next year as he will likely open the season in Triple-A Columbus to get some time there, but he is expected if all goes well to be the regular catcher in Cleveland by midseason next year.”
Like I said, it was a quick glance so maybe I missed the one quote I was supposed to look for, but what I find is pretty what I expected to happen with the Indians: Marson starts next year until they’re ready for Santana to come. If you wanted to argue that Marson is capable of being a starting catcher, there is plenty of evidence on that site that people do think that(as do I), but it doesn’t tell me that Santana is going to end up at 1B or 3B and won’t be a catcher long term.
What else ya got?
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 7, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
dude, you’re full of it. I practically live there, and never was such a statement made. Just admit that you you don’t know what you’re talking about, and wanted to create some controversy by leaving Santana off the list.
you obviously didnt read between the lines and pick up the subtle hints
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
So you left Santana off because you read between the lines and picked up the subtle hints of one reporter's speculation?
Do you even read what you type?
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
no no
It was in print, but for some reason he missed it and I am just too lazy to go through the site and find it to post. My suggestion of reading between the lines or picking up subtle hints was a last resort remark because he obviously missed reading it.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I dug up
6 quotes from the site you mentioned, and while some of them mention Marson as starting quality and likely to begin next year as the starter with Santana in the minors, none of them support the idea that Santana isn’t a catcher long term. These include quotes from a scout and from Kevin Goldstein. As I originally said, I might have missed the quote you mentioned, but the onus here isn’t on me or anyone else to find the quote, it’s on you to backup your claims that you found data supporting Santana as a CI not a C.
RIP Nick Adenhart
There's also the possibility of a typo
and I’m only half joking
And yet you still have Montero at 2 overall?
If moving off of catcher reduces a player’s value, you are contradicting yourself. Montero is a good enough hitter that he’s still a very good prospect, but so is Santana.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Montero is a FAR superior hitter than Santana
It’s not even close in my opinion.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I wasn't comparing the two directly
I was saying that you would’ve had Santana at 20 if you were certain he’d stay at catcher, but he fell outside the top 25 due to your thinking that he’d end up at a different position. Montero is probably even less likely to stay at catcher, but the furthest he could’ve fallen in your rankings due to that fact is from spot 1 to 2. Does that mean if Montero was guaranteed to stay at catcher you’d have him as the #1 prospect in baseball by a wide margin?
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
We have Montero high
because we strongly believe he will easily hit .300+ with 30-40 HRs, doesnt matter where he plays.
As for Santana, I see a .270-.280 hitter with 20 HRs. Not sexy for 1B.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Or put up those numbers
But hey, let’s not let facts get in the way of anything.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Pretty sexy
for a prospect though in any case. I say anyone who hits for a .270/.350/.480 line at any position is a success
so montero is nearly a first ballot HOFer? .300+ and 30-40 HR/yr would do that over the course of a career
by gorilla_baller on Aug 10, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
santana looked good behind the plate when I saw him
Reminds me of a more powerful russell martin
every report I’ve read about his defense says he’s athletic, has a very strong arm, blocks pitches well and the only thing he has to work on are the finer aspects of catching such as game calling and handling a pitching staff. He has worked hard on improving his english as well.
Even if for some reason he were to move, his athleticism would probably allow him to move back to 3rd.
I also don’t understand where this overrated thing comes from. Santana has put a .937 OPS in AA and he’s actually been a little unlucky as well in terms of babip. If you were to normalize his stats at minorleaguesplits.com for park factor and luck, his line improves to .309/.426/.584/1.010. Not to mention the .354/.462/.677/1.138 line he has put up since the all star break.
Yeah, this kid is incredibly overrated.
overrated because
people think he is a long-term catcher. at another position (likely 1b), he is just ‘meh’.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
First of all
You still haven’t provided any proof he isn’t a long term catcher.
Second, his bat is good enough to carry him at ANY position.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Carry him at 1B?
That’s debatable. Its good, but not great.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Yeah
I hate when hitters do well in every statistical category.
Like when they hit .326 with a .568 SLG in the Carolina League/Cali League
Or when they hit for a .281/.407/.525 clip in the Eastern League
Don’t you hate when that happens?
This list seems like a joke
It generates discussion which is a good thing but it seems like you purposely made a bad list just to be controversial.
+100000
I usually hate the sniping that people do about others’ lists, but this list is basically deliberately asinine.
I disagree
I think they tried, and I like some of their rankings, but I just generally disagree
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
You respect the assertion that tried to make a good list but failed miserably?
lol
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
you're sad
Clearly you need lessons on reading comprehension. I respect the fact that he appreciates the effort, even though he does not agree with the rankings.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Does he appreciate the effort?
He only said that it wasn’t deliberately asinine
I’m not yelling at you about the list, just sayin’
This.
I’m beginning to think more and more that these two are just successfully trolling everyone at the site.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly
If I was a ‘troll’ would I have spent hundreds of hours organizing the Top 150 Community List? Nobody forces you to read our material. If you don’t like it please just don’t click on a fanpost that we create. It is really that simple.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I definitely don't think you're a troll,
I tend to respect your opinion on things around here. I am curious though why all of a sudden you’re following the “Dewey Fanpost Template”, trying to be controversial in both topic and titles. It’s not that there is anything wrong with a little controversy now and then, but since the offseason Dewey has continually posted things of a controversial nature, to a point where I think most everyone here is/would be shocked if he made a more normal fanpost. To each there own, it just seems a little out of character for you, that’s all.
RIP Nick Adenhart
I hear what you are saying
I have known Dewey for over 15 years and agree that he can go overboard. He can sometimes be stubborn but that does not mean that he is necessarily always wrong. He writes what he believes and it is often against the grain.
In regards to me using the Dewey fanpost template, that is not entirely accurate. I often used numerous explanation points if you go through the history of the Community List (I.E. #100). Also, I have often used attention grabbing headlines. Here are 3 instances:
Best lefty prospect for Texas……and it’s not Derek Holland? http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/9/21/618699/best-lefty-prospect-for-te
Todd Frazier: The Big Red Machine!!!!! http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/25/460532/todd-frazier-the-big-red-m
The Return Of Jesus http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/4/24/460012/the-return-of-jesus
If people are really that upset about my headlines then that is their own problem. My posts on Dee Gordon and Ryan Westmoreland had numerous quotes from scouts and experts which is more than I can say then a lot of the drivel posted here.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Call On Perez/Montero
Even if Perez wasn’t yours =)
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Ok
Just using those Fanposts listed, I’d consider the Montero one a clever title, not really controversial(except for those ultra right wingers, not sure we have many of those around here), the Frazier not as clever as Montero but something that has an easily made connection, and the Holland one not really controversial either.
Here is the way I took the most recent topics you posted:
You’re Dewey’s friend, we know this as you’ve mentioned many times in the past and you’ve stuck up for him in arguments with RSF and PT over the last year(and kudos to you for sticking up for your friend no matter what). Dewey runs off a string of controversial topics again(2nd or 3rd time in this year), and gets raked over the coals for it. When I saw your Westmoreland one, my first thought was KBR is copying a Dewey style post with the idea of showing that people bash Dewey’s posts because of Dewey himself, and not the post itself. Now, that may not have been your intent at all, but that’s how I saw it. Nothing wrong with that if it was your intent, nothing wrong with it if it wasn’t.
I respect your opinion and the work you put into things you post here. It doesn’t mean I agree with everything you write, or much of this list to be honest, but I do respect you as a member of this community. With that said, I’m going to ask you directly to please provide us with the link(s) to the information you have found that shaped your opinion on Santana. Dewey said he’d have to talk to you about some subcriber content you used, can you please provide a link to that, and possibly a small excerpt of the article? I did check out the Indians Prospect Insider site or whatever it was Dewey used as source info earlier, and I posted a list of quotes from there I found that seem to contradict this opinion the two of you have. I asked Dewey if he could point me to the info on that site that supports your position, but I’ve yet to hear anything more on the subject from him.
I consider myself level headed and reasonable enough that if there is data that supports your assertion, that I can look at it objectively and see if it influences my own perception of Santana. I don’t believe it is unreasonable to ask for some verification of this, is it?
Hope to see a response here, it would be much appreciated.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 8, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This.
I’m beginning to think more and more that these two are just successfully trolling everyone at the site.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
excuse me? are you serious?
I could just as easily say the same to you. It seems you always ride in on your horse and preach about what proper posting should be. As far as I am concerned, the only point you have made recently is that you have a deep rooted bias against us. We are trolling?!? Hypocrite.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
no intention to be controversial bro
We provided OUR perspective on the prospects. Did you just want us to repeat BA or BP? We aint sheep.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Westmoreland
First of all, even though you guys are taking a boatload of criticism for this list I greatly respect the fact that you guys made it because as you can see its generated alot of discussion which is always good.
As for Westmoreland, it seems you guys value upside over minor league track record which isn’t a bad thing but sometimes not a prudent thing to do. He has all of 2 months of time versus mediocre SS pitching and hasn’t played the field yet. In the Sox system alone I’d rank Reddick (near major league ready center fielder with great power and COMPLETE CANNON for an arm) and Kelly (Extremely polished pitcher with great control who is the same age as Ryan) over Westmoreland.
We value a lot of things
age, tools, stuff, performance, upside. we make our rankings based on the combination of all.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Not really
He may be in the 50-75 range. Right now we don’t see him sticking at catcher. If he ends up at first that significantly hampers his value.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
i can see that
Didn’t know much about his D.
Kinda like Jesus Montero ...
a shitty C who ends up as a DH. Kinda hurts the value.
Having said that, Norris has a very good chance to stick behind the plate.
This list is embarrassing.
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
Montero > Norris
If you think their bats are close, then you better be ready for a let down.
Also, how is being ranked between #50-75 considered an insult?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
nice bat
But his value drops in my eyes because he does not look like he will stick behind the plate.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Meh
Dewey loves Havens but I am not his biggest supporter.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I tried
But KBR did not want to even hear it. I almost got Ike Davis on the list tho. He’s > than Logan Morrison.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
amazin'avenue guys
will love to hear the Met love. Although you don’t have Fernando martinez top 25, you have Mejia, suggest Holt on the cusp, and half the dynamic duo wanted Davis and Havens too. That seems to suggest 5 top 50 type guys, although I know that’s just one man’s opnion.
I may have Met bias
But I think Fmart is a piece of crap. He will amount to nothing more than a 4th OF at best.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
?
You think a 20-year old who slugged 540 at Triple-A is a 4th outfielder at best?
small samples don't impress me
I’ve seen him play, he’s nothing special.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
According to....
what? His great swing? Incredible bat speed? Very good range in centerfield? Great body build? You’re gonna have to offer a bit more than that. I’ve seen him play too and seen him work in cages in addition to that. There’s certainly something special here, it’s just a matter of health and maturity right now,
IMO
He hasn’t done jack s*** to justify all the hype he has received the past few years. He looks very mediocre to me.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
F-mart has put up comparable
if not better stats than Jackson has, while being even younger at each level.
Why is Jackson so awesome-o!!!11 but not F-mart?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
International Age
These guys tend to lose 3 years when they enter the states.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
That's sort of a blanket statement to make...
And yet you don’t seem to have problems with the ages of Montero and Mejia.
Consistency is fun.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Fmart
Is nowhere near Montero and Mejia’s talent level.
Not even close. Do you know anything about prospects?!?!
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I was sort of saying that you questioned FMart's age because he was an international signee, but didn't question the ages of two other international signees.
I could be wrong though.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly RSF
Why question his age but not the others?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
dont care about the age of the others
cuz their talent levels are faaaaaar superior to fmart.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
You're missing the point
If Jesus Montero is 22, he’s still a very good prospect, but nowhere NEAR the level of prospect he is as a 19 year old. Right now he’s at an obscenely high level for his age, which is what makes his stat lines so impressive. If he was 22 he’d be at an age-appropriate level, and his stat line would be very similar to that of Chris Carter.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 9, 2009 5:21 AM EDT up reply actions
SEE:
Ryan Westmoreland
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Have you seen him play?
Great tools, top 15 talent in his draft, and is a fantastic defender.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
The best athlete in the 08 draft, as good a set of tools as there are in the minors, the top recruit at Vanderbilt and a top half of the 1st round talent who slipped b/c on $ concerns?
Westmoreland is the real deal. Scouts have been all over him since his junior season of high school. He’s a monster.
All Metty5 was saying was that the list has no consistency.
These two docked FMart for a small sample size, but ranked a much smaller sample size (WMD) much higher.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
thats all i was saying. Love Westmoreland lol. But the sample size is tiny tiny.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
You can see below
I just hate exactly what RSF just saud. There is zero consistency on this list.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Based on...
I don’t see a problem with his swing, nor power, nor speed.
Pitch recognition at upper levels needs work, but is showing signs of improvement. Injury to right knee is annoying but shouldn’t effect pop, so if healthy I see a very nice success ahead of him.
I like Fmart
Dewey overruled me.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I can’t tell if this list is bold or stupid.
I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad
It's both
But it’s good that they’re thinking for themselves and proposing radical rankings. That’s better than the sheer boredom of hearing people repeat themselves
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
yup
We openly admit that we don’t agree with some of the mainstream rankings of certain prospects. Although, we had no idea of the wrath that was gonna ensue after revealing our perspective.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
irrationality lack of reasonable, supporting info tends to do that
“gut feel”, when not supported by any referenced scouting and relying on good numbers in low A when the player is old for the league can tend to set people off.
OR
Certain people are just too narrow-minded, cough *cough.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
enligthen me
Provide any type of logical, cogent support for your views which are wildly divergent from the entire group of your counterparts who also rank prospects.
It’s been 200+ posts, and still nothing. You’re hanging on a “hey, i think I read one article where one writer may have implied that he thought that Carlos Santana may possibly one day not be a full time starter”. That’s supposed to convey any knowledge or any debate?
You’ve thrown random names together with random HOF comps with the apparent main goal to match the position/handedness/color of the player and that’s it.
You’ve thrown a bunch of guys who’ve proven absolutely nothing at any level higher than A as a top 25 prospect, while just casting aside guys who have dominated at higher levels with absolutely zero rational support.
Surely, you’re not surprised.
60+ %
of the prospects on our list have at least played in AA. Do your homework.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
oh my
60% is greater than 40%, therefore, the majority of our prospects have performed at the high levels that you are so concerned about.
Whats wrong with you, are you drunk?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
majority
Where did I say anything about the majority of them being in A ball?
And what does the fact that the majority of your names are above A+ have to do with anything? f I only murder 49% of a family is that fine because the “majority rules”?
You are brainless.
that is the worst example I have ever seen used.
Makes no sense.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
exactly
your arbitrary “no, it’s OK because half of them are over A+” made absolutely no sense.
Who said that 50% is the magic number? Maybe only 10% of the top prospects are below AA. Maybe it’s 80%?
what are you even talking about?!?!
I broke your argument about how we only like players doing well in A ball. Now you are ranting about something else. Take a nap.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
His argument got kind of dumb after this post,
but I’d like to point out that he DID say “a bunch of guys”, not “the majority of guys”…
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The "wrath" has ensued
Because you guys aren’t really backing up some of your claims with anything substantial. It’s Brett Anderson all over again.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Tillman
I’m also curious where you’d rank Tillman and Feliz had they not been called up to the bigs.
Feliz
Feliz would have been around 20. Tillman maybe around 40 (neither of us believe he will be a frontline starter).
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
That is your opinion
Feel free to create your own list as I would love to read it. Also, please refrain from insults in the future. I have not made any personal attacks in this post, and I would expect that you would behave the same.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Andrew Brackman has great "upside"
You don’t make prospect lists based on who has the highest possible ceiling.
And honestly, this one post is worth more than everything you have ever posted on this site, combined. If you disappeared, no one would notice.
Also
We both agree that Feliz’s future is likely as a shutdown reliever.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I’m an A’s fan, so I got to watch his debut firsthand.
Fastball was very lively, but the slider wasn’t impressive, and the changeup was still almost 90 MPH and he didn’t control it very well. He K’d the first four hitters he faced because we can’t hit. I see him being a great reliever, but if he’s pitching 6 or 7 innings I don’t know how he’d survive against a major league lineup.
Honestly, if you think about it, Feliz’s secondary stuff is likely about the same as Bumgarner’s, and yet there are questions about Feliz’s ability to start but not about Bumgarner’s. Perhaps Bumgarner has been grossly overrated based on ERA alone due to the fact that minor league hitters have a lot harder time hitting a 95 MPH fastball with control than major league hitters do?
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You may want to reconsider that statement
Fangraphs has an article goig over his first appearance, with handy dandy charts, graphs, and opinions. I too initially thought Neffy was a one-pitch horse, but upon seeing it firsthand and having my perceptions reinforced by seemingly everyone else who saw the game or its results, I’m more giddy about Feliz than I’ve been about any Rangers prospect; ever. That includes Teixeira and Blalock when they were in everyone’s top 5.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
That article didn't really contradict anything I said
I was impressed with the fastball, and the movement was great, but I wasn’t impressed with the breaking ball. I haven’t seen him pitch as a starter, so I have no idea how he’d do over the course of a full game, as he threw strictly out of the stretch in his debut and was gassing it on every pitch. If he’s still at 97/98 in the 6th inning of a start, that’s more impressive. I was dead on with the changeup velocity; if he’s throwing it 85 or so like Fangraphs suggested it’s much more effective, but in his debut he was throwing it 90 MPH. Perhaps he was just jacked up for his major league debut? I’m not making any definitive statements, I just thought people would care to know what someone who saw his debut thinks. He does have great stuff; I’m not denying that. But it was far from the most impressive debut I’ve ever seen.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 9, 2009 5:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I threw up in my mouth a little bit
reading this list and the ridiculous comparisons for some of these guys.
Perhaps the post should be premised by saying: Top 25 prospects that are performing well this year, age relative to their league. Saying though that guys like Decker, Westmoreland and Neal have ventured into the top 25 prospects is plain silly. If that’s the case every prospect having a good season, age relative to their league, could make the same argument when clearly that’s not the only thing that scouts/industry evaluators do when comprising top prospect lists.
+ a million
to the moose
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Neal
I think is top 25. He is in high A. Has been 21 this year (22 in 2 weeks), and has absolutely mashed. And San Jose is not your lancaster type hitters park.
Westmoreland I’d like to see more of but he is getting raves. Amazing tools evidently and tghus far production backs it up, albeit in low minors. I don’t think that choice is so outlandish, although it is pretty aggressive.
Scouts seem to love Gordon too, but i think he is a bit more of a stretch.
Decker I have also heard raves about, and his line is great, but I don’t think he is quite the tool belt Westmoreland is, which isn’t to say he won’t be great.
Jackson an Revere are bigger streches to me, along with Gordon. Not saying the 3 you mention wouod make most top 25s, but they seem like decent reach picks.
Thank you
I understand not everyone will like our list, but I would appreciate it if they would take some time to read it and realize that we were not trying to rehash the BA list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, I realize that.
And I didn’t really even love the BA list. Nobody’s asking you to rehash it, but your defenses of your own list have (and this is more Dewey than you) been fairly weak and illogical. It’s like, when somebody brings up a problem with it, your first defense is “You’re narrow minded. It could happen!” And when the person continues to be rational and logical, the second defense is “Okay your argument is broken, make your walk of shame.” Do you have any idea how frustrating it is to argue with that?
(And again, this is more Dewey than you.)
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
I mean, it had Dewey Finn in the title
It was only a matter of time.
I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad
Santana
KBR and Dewey, could you guys explain why you think Santana is overrated? Is it something you heard from scouts, something you saw yourselves or something in the numbers?
I’d like to know why you made that claim, because I’d sure want to refute it or otherwise it’s something I may have overlooked.
As I said before
It doesnt look like he will stick at catcher. His bat looks great at the catcher position, but from the research we’ve done, his future is elsewhere on the diamond, most likely 1B or 3B. As a corner infielder, his bat becomes less valuable in our opinion. Lou Marson was acquired to be their future backstop. Santana’s defense behind the plate can be seen as average, but Marson’s is definitely superior.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
YOU think he won’t stick as a catcher, but who agrees with you? And I’m not talking about the people on this site, but scouts and team officials. Every report has stated that Santana has improved his defense and that he’ll be atleast average in the big leagues.
Marson wasn’t acquired to be the Indians future catcher. He will likely be the primary catcher for the 1st half of next season, untill … yeah you guessed it … Santana gets called up. This is directly from Shapiro. Marson was obtained to provide the Indians with a solid backup considering Martinez is gone, Shoppach will likely be traded, so thins out the depth behind the plate.
Look, I don’t mind you guys making a list that’s different than what most other people put out, but atleast base your different picks on facts. So long as you give your personal opinion without anything else backing it up, don’t be shocked people call out your credibility.
let’s not forget that victor martinez followed a similar path to the one santana is taking… vic was originally a SS (if i remember correctly) and played pretty poor defense in his first few season in the major leagues… marson and toregas might start next year in cleveland, but only to let santana season a little longer in columbus… the value from santana’s bat is going to overshadow the poor offensive production and marson can muster, even with the defensive disparity
by gorilla_baller on Aug 10, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it has ben answered
a few times, that they think he will not play C, in which case his bat isn’t as valuable.
I am not sure that’s true. First, I had not heard, although I could be wrong, that marson is anointed their catcher of the future due to better defense.
If he is first base/third (and of course with Victor martinez gone there isa first opening), I suppose the bat is less valuable. But at third (and Chisenhall may be the 3b of the future), I’d say still avery valuable bat. He has a higher ISO than Michael Taylor in the EL, for example, and is a few months younger. Not that the age difference or ISO difference is huge, but if they really suppose he may play some 3b (never heard that myself), his bat still plays quite well there. And i doubt it would be sub-par for a 1b, albeit going against more sluggers.
I imagine he will still catch some. And if he can play 3rd and 1st as well, so much better. Santana to me is easily a top 15 guy if not higher, and i know that is pretty conventional view, but conventional doesn’t mean wrong.
They also think that Marson
Who isn’t even that great defensively and has absolutely zero skills with the bat is somehow going to supplant Santana.
Marson is a career backup. No more.
this is why
We believe that Lou Marson is incredibly underrated. The Indians were smart for getting him.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
.111 Career IsoP, including .70 in '09?
Gimme gimme gimme!
Marson would have to be Yadi Molina behind the plate to be valuable.
But with Revere and Gordon, it’s clear that you just adore guys who have absolutely no power at all. Do you think it’s mean if hitters hit extra bases of the poor pitcher?
well
KBR and I were bullied in the playground by big kids.
Does it make sense now?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
personally, i enjoy this list
so they view a few prospects differently than the the same top 25 (minimal changes) everyone else posts. Fact is, there are busts and breakout players. 2 years from now, this could easily be better than the same top 25 i see over and over.
thank you sir!
Prospecting is VERY unpredictable. What may seem absurd today, could be genius tomorrow.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
the daveh top 40 tomorrow or sunday.
Dom Brown gets his due as the guy Philly didn’t want to trade.
plus** Matt Moore > Pedro Alvarez.
and many more!
looking forward to it!
Always great to see other people’s perspectives.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
YAY DAVEH.
This list will make me squirm in my pants.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Pedro is absolutely killing the ball. That may be a little premature but I'm looking forward to your list.
Tools Whore
Morrison? Santana?
Will they maybe be on it? It’ll be like an entire new top 25. No repeats! All new content.
My guess is Stanton is #1 on your list.
Tools Whore
I think the list is interesting
and I like the difference in opinion, but I have to believe that any list that doesn’t have Heyward top three better have a damn good explanation.
We love Heyward
But we feel the 3 guys ahead of him will have a much greater impact with their bats.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Ok, I overreacted
You guys spent a while on this list, and i can respect it. You made some aggressive choices, and I like that. While i disagree with some of what you’ve put, I apologize for acting like a jerk. Just for next time, I personally find the best way to do comps is to watch live playing of the guys in question. You can learn a lot from the style of a player. For example, I saw heyward, and his entire look and makeup reminded me of a young Griffey. Maybe I was just pissed earlier bc I never would have the focus to make this long a list :)
no worries brotha
We all have intense passionate feeling for prospects we like.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Minorleaguesplits
I am not sure if there is something wrong with their calculations, but park and luck adjusted, cumulative:
Davis: .269/.359/.462
Morrison: .332/.477/.538.
Something weird is that, somehow, luck adjusted, Morrison’s babip goes to .380 or so. I’d call that a nice luck adjustment. Sounds like they made him lucky, and not neutral.
I prefer Morrison
Dewey is crazy if he likes Davis more than Morrison
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
IMO
Morrison has limited upside, but is probably safer to reach his ceiling.
Davis has a much higher ceiling, but slightly less likely to reach it.
I prefer the potential star, and thats Davis.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Execpt...
Davis can’t hit lefties…..
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I dont see potential star in Davis at all
He has major adjustments to make to get to adequate at 1B. He’s just not patient enough
understood
but I think he can make improvements in those areas and become a 30 hr, .300 hitter.
like you said tho, he does need to make adjustments. kbr disagrees with me.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Why??
Why is Morrison’s upside limited? I think you’ve convinced yourself that Morrison = Overbay, when that just flat out is not true. Morrison has already flashed SIGNIFICANTLY more power than Overbay EVER did in the minors.
Want a better comp for Morrison? How about Will Clark.
Morrison's power
Scouting reports back up that he’s got good raw power as well:
http://www.pacificprospectreport.com/blog/?p=338
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3680338&type=blogEntry
Okay, I guess I should post something of some substance
I wish you could understand where I’m coming from here. I don’t hate your list (even if I agree with extremely little of it), but that attitude that you guys have both had for months now is obnoxious, and completely uncalled for. You both realize that you’re lightning rods when it comes to controversy, and yet you continually go out of your way (through manipulative topic titles and general posting styles) to stir up controversy. It’s like you’re enjoying pseudo-rock star personnas, only you don’t realize that this is the internet, that you aren’t rock stars, and that the arrogance you keep putting on display only makes you look like tools.
I’m sure you aren’t bad guys, and I’m sure you even know a little something about prospects, but you need to tone it the **** down, because you are losing credibility ridiculously fast. Being bold is great, and it’s definitely awesome to look back and see that you were right about a controversial stance, but when you seem like you’re trying to be bold and revolutionary with every single ranking, it starts to lose its luster.
I appreciate the work you put into this list, and I know that it’s not easy to do (I had my Top 100 last offseason, and I’ve been working on a midseason Top 100 for about a week now). Just stop trying so damn hard to be lightning rods for criticism.
stopped caring about what you thought a LONG time ago dude....
You’re a wannabe know-it-all preacher.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I'm a wannabe know-it-all preacher?
What in God’s name does that make you, then?
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
uh
I don’t go around telling people how to post, what to post, quality, etc. Can’t say the same for you.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
You seem unable to comprehend criticism
I mean, you respond to it, it just seems like you literally do not understand what people are trying to say.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
"Preaching"
To advocate, especially to urge acceptance of or compliance with
Yup, that’s you.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Criticism
It stopped being constructive when you questioned our motives and attitudes.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
He is dead-on
This is ridiculous and Dewey throughout his responses to people has sounded like a complete moron. He has been overtly stubborn about the smallest little things. He does this crap, and RSF is right, to be over the top, and get attention.
You haven’t been as bad, but you certainly enabling DF to be who he is now being perceived to be. An annoyance.
I like the effort put it, I know it takes a lot. I disagree with a ton, a TON. And if I really cared enough I’d write something long about how stupid Ike Davis > Logan Morrison is. Or the points of how Santana can’t catch. Which was a lie and he was too stubborn to admit. So he said this,
you obviously didnt read between the lines and pick up the subtle hints
Again, I agree with someone above, who said ranking a prospect 25 or 50 is a very very small difference. But, this can’t even be used to save this list. There are far too many glaring oversights and inconsistency in thought throughout this evaluation.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by JD Sussman on Aug 8, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Like I've said repeatedly
I have no problem with you. I’ve respected you in the past, and I think you generally know what you’re talking about. But you are giving Dewey the spotlight, you’re encouraging him, and you’re sort of striving to be as controversial as him. It’s an unfortunate shift for you.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No worries
I don’t mind if you and Dewey want to keep up your bickering. Neither of you are 100% right but I doubt either of you are willing to be objective with one another. You say I am giving Dewey the spotlight, but I would say it is you and your obsession to prove him wrong that is feeding his fire.
Also, if you would look at my past fanposts I have always used controversial titles. They generate traffic and get people to read my material, which is why I take the time to create articles. I want my opinions heard and if people don’t like them I would appreciate it if they criticize them in a mature manner and cease any personal attacks.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
My attitude?
Do you mean where I compiled the top 150 list to ensure the community’s voice would be heard? Or do you mean the fanposts I created because I thought some prospects were underhyped? Dewey sometimes comes across harsh, but I’m not sure where you get off making personal attacks on me. I would recommend that if you don’t like our work, PLEASE DON’T READ IT!!!!! Nobody is forcing you and obviously numerous people enjoy our content. I prefer to question the content and not the person. Paul Thomas, Slurve and myself often disagree on a subject, but then I will read something else they do and give it a +1. Stop being so judgemental.
P.S. I may think I am Jim Morrison, but we both know you wish you were Clay Aiken.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't be stupid, you're better than this.
You worked on the Community Top 150. Great, good for you. That doesn’t change the way you’ve been posting lately. Nobody is forcing me to read your “work”, sure, but when it gets recs and it’s being highlighted as the best this site has to offer, that sort of reflects poorly on John and the site when its a heaping pile of indefensible shit.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
How is it my fault if people rec my work?
I think you are blaming the wrong person. Go after the people that make the recs, not the people that create the material.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
That's fair, and I do blame them
It doesn’t change the fact that, despite you knowing you’ll get recced, you go out of your way to make indefensible stances.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Not all my posts get recced.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Again, that was not really intended for you, despite it being in response to you.
;-)
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
wait a second...
are you guys talking about me? pretty sure i defend my stances very well. unfortunately, you just choose not to acknowledge it.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
No. You don't.
This is everybody’s problem. Instead of actually defending your stance, you just say that you have.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Unreal
Some of you that respect the fact that we made a strong effort to provide a non-conformist view on prospects, thank you. The rest of you should be ashamed of yourselves for being so narrow-minded. Relax people, we aren’t re-writing the bible here.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
disagree = narrow minded?
You disagree with the norm. Publish. That’s a “strong”, “non-conformist”, effort.
People disagree with you. They are being “narrow-minded”
There is a big difference between disagreeing and attacking
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Yes
Mental deficients always feel like they are being attacked because they can’t understand grander concepts.
That’s why retards need to be put in homes to protect the rest of society from their irrational outbursts.
outbursts?
Are you completely oblivious to your recent posting?
By the way, no need to insult certain groups of people. Inappropriate.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
qualifier
Nothing irrational about my outbursts. And you may find my “recent posting” objectionable merely because I’ve disagreed with you.
I’ve had nary an argument with anyone else on this board in ages.
But hey, more people agree with me about your list, than you. So I guess to borrow your phrase, “majority rules” and your SOL.
depends
whether people completely disagree with the list, or just some parts.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Whoa
Getting a little harsh here, no?
Incidentally, before you get too excited, you might want to re-read some of their posts and try to imagine the respective ages of some of the posters
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
Again, there's no problem with having a different opinion
Unless you fucking abck up what you’re saying. It’s really very simple.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
guys like you just don't listen
too wrapped up in your own lil world, very quickly discounting other possible scenarios on prospects.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Guys like him don't listen?
He’s trying to fucking listen, but you aren’t backing anything up. “Other possible scenarios” are great, but you’re pulling them out of thin air. Freddy Galvis could become Alex Rodriguez. Will it happen?
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
its the unwillingness to broaden one's perspective
that leads to thinking that someone is pulling something out of thin air.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
...
Um, how are you not pulling something out of thin air?
I’m not imagining this. Every time (without fail) somebody asks you to back something up, you accuse them of being narrow minded. It’s hilarious. You are a train wreck at this point.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
comps are comps
no way of proving that a guy will be the next Pedro, Maddux, Arod, etc.
Comps are made based on what the future outlook of the player can be if he continues to progress based on factors such as tools, performance, etc. There is no certainty.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
So what you're saying is
You pulled the comps out of thin air.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
hello
Comps are made based on what the future outlook of the player can be if he continues to progress based on factors such as tools, performance, etc.
Did you miss that part? Right, sure you did, cuz I broke your argument.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
You didn't break anything.
In what future outlook of Thomas Neal does he become Albert Belle? In the future outlook that you pulled out of thin air.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I've listened
And surprisingly, had been completely respectful up to this point. That clearly hasn’t gotten me anywhere, though.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
ok, I get it, you're frustrated...
That’s your cue to walk away from the computer.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
lol
The fact that you call your list non-conformist shows you motives.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
motives
Were to present our own real thoughts rather than play it safe and repeat other sources.
We don’t mind that people don’t agree, but discounting our opinion completely as impossible is ridiculous.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Galt
I feel like we are becoming good friends. It’s like we are texting each other here.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Also, I thought you made it clear in your "DEE GORDON = JIMMY ROLLINS??!?!?!?!" post that you didn't actually believe that comparison
The guy doesn’t even have a .400 SLG at low-A. If he turns into Jimmy Rollins, I will literally swallow my foot. You can even watch via Skype. It’ll be in the news and everything.
Dee who?
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 7, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a bit ridiculous
Gordon is a top 100 prospect right now. Scouts rave about the tools, and he’s still considered very raw despite pretty darn good production thus far. He should develop into a plus plus defender with great speed and moderate power. I agree with KG – he probably is LA’s #1 prospect now.
2 points
1. Rollins didn’t slug .400 in low A either. But he was only 18.
2. However, Gordon is 21 years old. Rollins slugged .457 when he was 21 in AAA.
Gordon is a bit raw, as, despite the fact his father is a ballplayer, he didn’t play much when younger. And he should be called by his given name, Devaris Strange-Gordon. :) I hear Steven King is working on a sequel.
the fact that he's 21 years old and weighs 150 lbs
tells me that he has a similar build to what i had a couple years ago… i wouldn’t have slugged .450 in AAA either.
Uh.
1.) Rollins’ breakout was the exception, not the norm. You can’t point to a superstar’s bizarre career path and say “prospect X is better than he was at single-A, so prospect X is going to break out like he did!” It’s illogical.
2.) Exactly!
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 7, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
oh
I was not suggesting Gordon would follow Rollins career path. The comment was made simply that because Gordon didn’t slug .400 in low A he wouldn’t be like Rollins. In fact Rollins did just that. The important qulaifier would be their respective ages. I agree he is unlikely to be like Rollins, and I was just adding the context. Not because he didn’t slug .400 in low A but because he didn’t do it at age 21.
Kevin Goldstein agrees with me. Do you know more about prospects then him?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions
No, Kevin Goldstein does not fucking agree with you
Maybe somebody hasn’t told you this yet. Absolute ceilings and comparables are two very different things. Goldstein said that Dee Gordon’s absolute ceiling could be something like Jimmy Rollins. How you took that to mean “ROLLINS IS A GOOD COMPARABLE FOR GORDON” is beyond me.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
do you read what you write???
Goldstein is clearly providing a comp.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
There is a difference between an absolute ceiling and a comparable.
Christ, it’s not a complicated concept to understand.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
That may have been our bad
We used the term MLB comparison when we should have said ceiling MLB comparison. That is our fault and we will fix that in our 26-50 list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
KG also rated Justin Upton behind
guys like Mike Pelfrey just 2 years ago. he’s not to be trusted, even if he apologizes for such an error
haha
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Guys like me and KG can be wrong sometimes.
I was wrong about Brett Anderson, he’s done much better than I expected.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
-1
If were going to no longer trust someone b/c they were very wrong on a prospect, well… every analyst and every person here is untrustworthy.
Did he "miss" Upton,
or did he just miss Pelfrey by a LOT?
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 9, 2009 5:30 AM EDT up reply actions
It was BAD on Upton
But I know people who did the same thing. I did, for one, not that I am an expert. But people had similar thoughts.
And by Bad, i mean bad if you think 10 or 20 slots really make a difference on these lists.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
over 20 slots makes a huge difference on a "professional's" list.
he was trying to be different and it was ridiculous. Upton should have been no lower than 3/4….
So far, Brad Holt is leading the poll
I liken him to AJ Burnett. Thoughts on this comparison?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Thank you!
I’ve been making the Bailey/Burnett comp for two years, and people laugh at it.
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont like the comp
Holt isnt as good, won’t k as many in MLB and his stuff is a few notches below Burnett’s IMHO. Decent chance Holt ends up a reliever, too.
Curve
Has Holt developed a decent curve to compliment his mid-90s heater?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
It's improved considerably this year though.
He throws his curve more, and it has a bite to it. He also has a change that’s improved since he was drafted.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Its an awful comparison
Holt doesn’t have anywhere need the secondary stuff of AJ Burrnett.
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What were you expecting, really?
From the guys who compared Thomas Neal to Albert Belle and Pedro Alvarez to Aramis Ramirez.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Neal is quite similar to Belle
I don’t understand why you don’t get that. Similar hitting ability and body types, position.
Neal is capable of what Belle did, hit around .300, 30 hr, and 100+ rbis in the middle of SF order.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Albert Belle was much more powerful than 30 HR
Carlos Lee seems like a great comp for Neal
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 9, 2009 5:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Burnett's secondary stuff consists of a plus curveball
With improved consistency, Holt’s curve can be plus as well. His fastball already matches Burnetts, and might even be better.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I dont buy it. Holt’s fastball does not “match” Burnett’s. Burnett’s is damn good. He’s one of the hardest throwing pitchers in baseball and keeps his velocity late into games. Holt has a very good fastball, but Im not ready to equate it to Burnett’s.
Lots of guys flash plus curves – the ability to throw it consistently and for strikes is a gigantic step past that, and most guys dont make it. Also, I was under the impression Holt throws FB/Slider/Change – not a curve.
Now, lets say he does improve his slider – his change is really raw (Read: Bad) from what Ive read. That still might make him fit best in the pen.
I like Holt, but I think people are overrating him based on an exciting fastball and good numbers in the lower levels (as a result of that fastball). He has some warts that are major concerns.
If you want a comp for Holt
look no further than Bobby Parnell. Big fastball, secondary stuff lacking. Notice how people have caught up to him AA. Unless his secondary stuff improves drastically he’s probably destined for the bullpen. Maybe John Maine as a starter.
Really don’t get the hype with him, until he has a plus offspeed offering I’m not buying him.
Not totally fair
Parnell’s fastball is straight as an arrow. Parnell is more like Farnsworth. Holt could actually be more like Pelfrey.
True, but he doesn't get the ground balls that Pelf gets.
That’s why I can’t see him remaining a starter unless his secondary stuff improves a good amount. He seems more like Maine than Pelf, with the flyballs and all. He just needs to get his secondary stuff to the point that Maine has his.
I'd love to hear you prove me wrong.
Have you seen him in person? Have you seen anything remotely like + offspeed pitches? Because when I saw him he relied on his fastball and very little else.
Actually, I have seen him in person.
I went to a St. Lucie game in May where I saw him pitch. He was using his curve a lot more than he had last year, almost as an out pitch in some scenarios. It needs work and refinement, but it could be an effective pitch at the major league level. It has some bite to it. Also, his change has improved since last year. Give him some credit.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I voted Cashner.
Just love the upside in his arm. I know we haven’t seen that much from him yet, but I think he could be on the fast track.
LOVE what he is doing as a starter. Looks DOMINANT
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Late 20s
I like him a lot. Was seen as more of a line drive and high avg hitter when drafted, but love the power he is showing this year. He was also seen as an overdraft that is proving critics wrong. Really good 3B prospect.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I also find it very hard to believe that Oakland’s easily top ten, likely top five minor league system has ZERO top 25 prospects. No Carter or Wallace seems like an oversight, IMO. I wouldn’t have a problem with only one of them, but excluding both seems like a mistake.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
KBR and I couldn't come to an agreement on Wallace.
Chris Carter is not Top 25 worthy. I like the improvements he has made this season though.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Why isn't Carter top 25 worthy?
I might take him over Wallace. Neither is good defensively, and Carter looks to have more offensive upside.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
i'd take him over wallace as well
i’m of the opinion that wallace actually does not suck defensively at could act as a 3B for a while…but carter’s bat is way better IMO.
baseball rules.
I actually think that Oakland probably doesn't have a top 25 guy
although there could be 3 or 4 in the top 50 depending on taste.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Agreed
Wallace and Carter would be in the top 50 with Weeks and Cardenas possibly joining them. Carter has shocked me this year and I admit that I viewed him wrong.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
No Cardenas
SO god damn overrated. Carter and Wallace would probably be late 40s.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
He's asking why Cardenas is overrated...
And so am I.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 9, 2009 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions
empty batting average
no power, bad defense.
is that sufficient?
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
No
Why Carter/Wallace are late 40s.
One of them will end up playing first, and both could end up in the field, easily. That combined with their bats alons makes them top 30-40 prospects.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
I do think he's far too hard on Cardenas, though.
His defense isn’t great, but it’s far from bad, and he has excellent strike zone judgment.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Sorry to KBR and Dewey....
But this may be the single worst top 25 list I’ve ever seen.
period.
Ben Revere the Next Ichiro ????
HOW can you even make that comparison – its flat out not fair, Ichiro is an anomaly
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 7, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions
clearly you haven't seen the project prospect list!
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
To be fair
Sickels was the first one I read to make that comparison for Revere’s upside. We happened to agree with him. I should note that these are all upside MLB comparisons.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
In the following post:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/6/22/556116/controversial-prospect-ben
You stated:
I don’t think he’ll ever be a big home run guy, but if he maintains this level of hitting skill he could be a batting champion someday in the mold of Ichiro Suzuki.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL
I doubt John remembers the context in which he wrote that.
But I’d have to guess the part about “if he maintains this level of hitting skill” was sort of a joke. Because there wasn’t a chance he could maintain a 400 average. Maybe I’m misreading it, but I’m not a Revere fan.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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You mean, KBR and Dewey Finn misinterpreted an offhand comparison that a professional analyst made?
NO KIDDING
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
There was no misinterpretation
John wrote:
I don’t think he’ll ever be a big home run guy, but if he maintains this level of hitting skill he could be a batting champion someday in the mold of Ichiro Suzuki. Other possible comps would include Ralph Garr or Luis Polonia, or possibly Brett Butler if Revere can boost his walk rate at higher levels.
If John chooses to retract that statement that is fine. However, he DID make the comparison so do not act like it was misinterpreted. When he states “other possible comps would include….” he is inferring that Ichiro was a comp. However, I respect that fact that John now admits he is wrong.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
guys
Read the full comment. It says that if he keeps hitting like he was in June of 2008, he could be like Ichiro. But I also brought up Ralph Garr, Luis Polnia, and Brett Butler as possible comps. Obviously those would be more likely than Ichiro, and obviously I would not compare him to Ichiro now.
I agree
Comps can change as time goes by and performance levels change.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
That's not what John is saying.
He’s saying that you misinterpreted the comment, and that of all the names he dropped, you chose the one who was the biggest positive outlier.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
I think John may have meant that, but I interpreted it correctly. Perhaps the onus is on the wording and not the interpretation. Nowhere in the article did it mention June 2008, although it is NOW apparent that John meant to include that. I have no problem with John changing his opinion, that is what good prospect evaluators do with more data, however if you read the article you will see there is nothing wrong with my interpretation.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
... John did include it in the analysis
What did you possibly think “if he maintains this level of hitting” could mean, other than “if he maintains the level of hitting that he was accomplishing at the time of this post, in June 2008?”
It’s pretty clear what he was saying.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Cashner isn't even the best prospect in our system!!!
Vitters easily takes that! He’ll he’s not even recently the best in terms of performance, that’s Colvin!
Randy Wells. A product of the Roy Halladay School of Pitching, located in Toronto, Canada. Possible relocation.
Vitters
His disappointing High A performance kept him off the list.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Josh Vitters = Jeff Francoeur
Sorry to burst your bubble, but its true.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Heyward nutting on this list
Guess he reads the site. LOL @ the Markakis comparison. While he’s a great player, Heyward probably has as much power NOW as Markakis does at 26 years old.
This list is sad
I don’t know if I can ever make another prospect after seeing this one. It’s a disgraceful list. You put guys who might not even be considered for top 50 in your top 25. Where’s Carlos Santana? Where’s Brett Wallace? Where’s Jarrod Parker? There’s a bunch more that deserve to be on every Top 25 list.
spelling correction
*Prospect List…man I can’t spell haha
Answers
We believe Santana’s future is at 1B which hurts his value.
Wallace’s glove won’t play at 3B and if it does he will cost his team more runs then he will create. If he plays at 1B his bat is not star level.
Parker would have made the list if he hadn’t run into arm trouble.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Asked of you above,
and of Dewey a couple of times yesterday, but can you please provide some links to the source material that leads to this conclusion that Santana isn’t going to be a catcher? I have no problem rethinking my own opinion of players based on new data, but I do think something like this does require source material as opposed to just taking someone’s word on it.
Is it possible to get a link(s) and maybe an excerpt of some of the data used here? Thanks in advance.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 8, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1,453,724
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
As far as prospect lists go, this one is almost immediately regrettable
Way too little evaluation of what players are actually doing in the minor leagues and way too much wishcasting based on scouting reports. Also some flat-out bizarre statements, like “Coors field isn’t a problem for curveball pitchers”. Watch a few more SportScience episodes, guys.
The comments thread is hilarious, but the hilarity is unrelated to baseball analysis.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I know you like numbers...
Coors Field ranks 19th in HRs allowed. Its not the same as it once was.
Furthermore, Friedrich’s curve is probably by far the best in the minors. If you read carefully (which you never do), I said Coors Field will not be an issue with Friedrich, not curveball pitchers in general. I understand, its late, and you’re tired.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
That prob has more to do with the players playing in it.
Rather than the park being 19th this year. Its historically one of the best hitting park ever.
Physics
The humidor makes gripping the baseball easier as well as preventing a lot of the carry issues involved with fly balls at altitude but to the best of my knowledge the actual impact upon pitch spin (drag) hasn’t been shown to be large (or even significant).
Fly ball pitchers now have a much better chance of success at Coor’s Field but curve balls are still significantly degraded there.
With that said those pitchers who have been willing to throw a plus curveball at altitude have still been able to use it well.
Right
Not at all clear to me how a more humid (heavier) baseball would impact air resistance on the ball, which is fundamentally a product of surface area, not volume.
If you wanted to make a baseball for Coors that would curve as much as a regular ball, you would (I think— physics was a long time ago) have to make it smaller, not heavier.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
You take offhand comments from analysts as gospel and you don't know who Jon Heyman is?
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeez
Everyone is acting like we left him off the list. His ranking on our list is very high people!!!
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
I'm thinkin'
You ranked him too high, because he’s not going to be eligible for prospect lists next year.
Does anyone want a Dewey & KBR 26-50 List?
It shouldn’t be a problem as we have a lot of sources of information.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
Yessir.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
Please Don't
You’ll only embarass yourself even more if you extend the list
LOL SOCK PUPPET
Considering that you contribute nothing to this site, I take that as a compliment. Also I noticed something interesting about you. This fanpost was created on 08/06/09 10:38 PM EDT. You joined minorleague ball on 08/06/09 11:31 PM EDT. You then only post in this one fanpost and make personal attacks and criticize us???!!!! I have a term for people like you…..SOCK PUPPET!!!!! If you don’t have the balls to come at us under your real account that is pathetic and sad. I will no longer be civil towards you because people like you have almost ruined the site in the past. I don’t mind people hating on my list but cowards piss me off. People on this site that I rarely make personal attacks and usually just laugh when people go off the deep end. However, such obvious sockpuppets deserve no respect.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, this I'll agree with.
I have problems with the list, but I also have no problem telling you that with my account.
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 8, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah good points
by the way, don’t make Mets Fans accounts, we get a bad rap already.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
King Idiot
Yes I just made this account yesterday, that was my first time posting on here. If you think Im someone else, that’s completly fine. Im not usually the type to criticize people’s post, but this list was the exception. Get some better facts on your prospects.
To catch a sockpuppet!!!!!
It is obvious that you are a sockpuppet. You just so happened to sign up around an hour after we created the post, and then started criticizing us and making personal attacks right off the bat…….ummmm…sure. I really have no intention of acknowledging any more of your comments as people like you ruin the site for everyone and should be banned/ignored accordingly. Take care buddy and I look forward to your next sockpuppet.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I Actually Know Who This Is
He’s a great guy. He just disagrees with the list.
NO SOCK PUPPET.
Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D
I also...
I also know who the metfan527 is…paranoid much KBR?? Get your facts straight before you go making accusations.
He's just mad because this list is indeed, trash.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
adding on
This is my only account. Call me a coward, call me whatever the hell you want. This is my real account whether you believe me or not. I found out about this site a few weeks ago and decided to make an account a few days ago.
save yourself the shame of being exposed and stop posting.
Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.
other comments
Ive seen plenty of people say bad things about your list…why not say something to them?
Yes I’ll admit maybe I shouldn’t have said the list was “disgraceful”, but cmon, let everyone have their own opinions. Your’s isn’t the only one that matters.
overreacting
I also admit I did overreact after I saw this list. I jumped too fast to the conclusion.
is there really any shame involved?
you may be right that he’s some sort of troll but somehow I don’t think anyone has ever been ashamed of it. It’s not like he’s going to see you at the gym tomorrow ; )
"Gratuitous gesticulating together sounds even better"
Why not?
Make one, it doesn’t take any time out of my day. I agree with below. This stuff makes for good laughs.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
The issue with Heyward's ranking
I understand you guys still have him rated very high, but I think the issue is that there doesn’t seem to be any actual explanation as to why Stanton is higher. Maybe you guys don’t think think you should have to provide one, but it makes it hard to take the list seriously.
Heyward and Stanton have similar tools and are currently playing at the same level. Stanton is having serious issues making the transition to AA, while Heyward appears to have taken a step forward with the promotion. Stanton currently has 68 strikeouts in 202 AB in AA, compared to just 19 BB. Heyward has 11 strikeouts compared to 17 BB and 19 XBH.
Right now, Heyward appears to be about as much of a sure thing as any 19 year old can be. I honestly struggle to see him being any worse than a .850-.900 OPS guy in the majors. Stanton’s issues with strikeouts and walks since making the transition to AA make me worry that there is a chance he will never be a great player at the ML level. I guess I can buy an argument that Stanton has a slightly higher ceiling because of his power, but given how close their ceilings are and how much higher Heyward’s floor is I just don’t see how you can justify Stanton in front of Heyward.
Power
We like Stanton better due to his power potential. People need to realize that the difference between the #1 prospect and #5 prospect is marginal at best.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not always true
I agree that once you get further down the list the ordering doesn’t matter nearly as much, but at the top it certainly can be a big difference. I guess the point I was getting at is that Heyward is on another level as a prospect than the guys you rate ahead, especially Stanton. Yeah, Stanton might hit for a little more HR power, but the two have virtually identical HR rates in AA and Heyward actually has a better ISO both for the year and in AA. When you throw in the fact that Heyward is far, far more refined as a player and a far better bet to actually reach his ceiling, I just don’t see how you can rank Stanton in front of him.
You can’t just make a prospect list based on player’s absolute ceilings. As far as I can tell, that’s the only reason you’re ranking Stanton ahead of Heyward, and it’s a terrible reason. Heyward has virtually the same ceiling, but is far more likely to reach it and is far more likely to be a very productive major league player than Stanton because he has such a refined approach at the plate. Similar age, similar tools, but one guy has far more refined skills and much better production to date, yet you rank the other guys ahead of him. That makes no sense to me.
So any response?
I can’t imagine anyone is satisfied with the reasoning that Stanton’s edge in power potential (which you haven’t even made an argument to support) and the fact that there is a marginal difference in between the #1 and #4 rated players explains away Heyward’s advantage in production and refinement, along with Stanton’s much higher bust potential.
You guys apparently put a lot of work into this list, but if that’s the extent of your reasoning on Stanton being ahead of Heyward I can’t think you actually put that much thought to this list.
Guess that must be a no?
Funny how you guys have no problem sniping back and forth with the people who don’t really try to back up their points with actual information, but the people asking you the tough questions that will actually force you to examine your thought process and the results it lead to get completely ignored. Guess you guys were more interested in arguments than any actual debate…too bad
+ 1 million
Anytime somebody puts forth a valid argument, it gets ignored.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Martin Perez
Where would you guys have him ranked, and who do you like for a comp for him? Thanks.
Perez
He would be around #50. I have a lot of love Perez but young arms are harder to judge. I have heard a lot of people make Johan comp to Perez but I have not seen him pitch so I can’t say if that is accurate.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for the quick response. I believe someone on this site posted up youtube video of him recently, and I got a chance to watch it and was very excited about him due to his stuff but also his clean mechanics and smooth delivery.
Who do you think would be a good comparison?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
I don’t even want to venture a guess into that, I don’t consider myself any type of expert, I’m just recently getting into studying prospects in depth, so I bow to people who are much more informed like you and others on here who would have a better estimate. Anyone?
Younger arms are hard to judge?
Then how do you explain Knapp, who’s got a good fastball and not much else?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
My Take.
FWIW….While I don’t agree with the list and feel that the ML comparisons were forced, I can see some reasoning behind the post. If you go back 10 years to the 1999 BA top 100 and look at the top 25……
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/26983.html (free content)
That years top 25 when revisted if you remade the list with the benifit of hindsight players like Bruce Chen (4), Ryan Anderson (7), Pablo Ozuna (8), Ruben Mateo (9), Alex Escobar (11) to name a few would obviously be taken off and replaced with the likes of Carlos Lee (28) Alfonso Soriano (39), Ted Lilly (66), and Carlos Gullien (87) among others. So I (think) I can see what they were trying to do. I think they were trying to give their take on who they felt were the best 25 prospects because as we all know just because BA said these are the top 25, dosn’t mean after all is said and done they were really the best 25 players in the minors.
Couple issues though, I have no idea why Santana didn’t make the cut. He has 1 of the safer bats imo and still have yet to see any proof that he will move off C. Also it’s so common that players that tear up A ball are exposed once they make it to higher levels. While aggressive in putting them on there list some are not gonna continue to be so highly regarded once some of the flaws they have are exposed.
Comparisons— I do like the Posey comparison to Biggio. Me thinks that is pretty spot on. ( I see simialr hitters and skill sets as well as possibly Posey moving off C to a position that fits his athleticism better much the same way Biggio was. Kudos 4 that 1) Overall though they were forced and to many times compared to guys with similar body types and less on skill sets. I also think when making comparisons to established players it’s more prudent sometimes to use guys who are no longer playing because you have a wider range of players who are truly similar.
discussion
I think this is an interesting discussion so I’ve let it run despite the fact that it veered into flamewar territory at times.
I don’t know where the Santana can’t catch thing comes from…everything I’ve heard about his glove is positive, and while Marson is probably better defenisvely, the difference between him and Santana won’t be enough to prevent Santana from getting the job in the medium run. I just don’t believe Marson will be anywhere as good as Santana as a hitter.
Like many posters I prefer Heyward to Stanton because Heyward’s plate discipline and contact ability is superior. I already wrote up a comparison of them.
All that said, while I disagree with the list, I think a lot of effort and thought went into it.
Please back off on the flamewar stuff though.
Thanks John
You know that Dewey and myself have nothing but love for you. We know not everyone will agree with the list but we believe in it and that is really all that matters. Thank you for the kind words.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the list, guys
I think Montero’s high, I like Feliz more than you do, etc., etc.
I really like that you took the time to write a bit, make an interesting comp (Markakis in particular is one that never occurred to me for Heyward, and I think it mostly fits, perhaps excluding body type, as Heyward is just a bigger dude) and then discussed it in comments, even when people were trying to lay down turds on everything you wrote.
One of the better/more interesting threads we’ve had on here in a while.
Thank you
I appreciate your comments.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I stopped care about what Dewey thinks after I realized he's a massive baiter
Though I do appreciate KBR’s efforts here.
And this thread was funny, just for all the wrong reasons
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I don't think Dewey is a baiter
he just wants attention, he makes outlandish comps/statements so he’ll stand out from everyone. And quite frankly it works, he gets the attention from the majority of the posters on this site.
Here is my 8th and final request
for links to the source material that led to the determination that Carlos Santana won’t be stick at catcher and therefore isn’t top 25 material. I checked the free site Dewey mentioned and posted 8 quotes above, none of which support the position of KBR or DF. I asked for a direct link to the quote from that site that I must have overlooked, and no response. I asked for links to the pay content Dewey mentioned, and no response. I asked KBR twice yesterday for links and nothing. I respect KBR but if we don’t get some kind of evidence here I can safely say that I will lose some respect here, and I’m sure I wouldn’t be the only one. I’m sure that doesn’t matter much, but at this point it just appears this list is more of a Dewey attention seeking post than anything else, since requests to provide data used in determining this list continues to fall on deaf ears. This looks like the Brett Anderson debacle all over again, and I honestly expected better with KBR’s name attached to this.
RIP Nick Adenhart
This is my last post in this thread
John has asked me to shut this thread down due to people making it a flamewar competition so I will make this my final post in this thread. First off, many people are getting upset if I don’t respond to one of their comments. I just hope that they look at the sheer number of requests for feedback from me and understand that I don’t have enough time to respond to everyone. However, since people and Dewey are mainly debating over Santana here are my reasons for not thinking he can last at catcher:
1. I’ve seen him play numerous times. This guy has a great arm but does not have a great glove and the Indians have a better defensive catcher in the minors in Marsden.
2. Hitters like him, who don’t possess great defense, tend to move off the position.
3. Not great defensively yet, specifically in game calling. The language barrier has been a big problem to date:
Santana receives frequent visits from Travis Barbary, the organization’s roving catching instructor. Better footwork, blocking balls in the dirt and developing a quicker exchange from his glove hand to his throwing hand are among the things Barbary and Santana work on. Learning the strengths and tendencies of a pitching staff and calling pitches are other areas in which Santana hopes to improve.
“The biggest thing for us is to see him work on getting a better grasp of the English language,” Watson said. “That will only enhance his ability to work with a staff of 12 or 13 pitchers.”
http://www.pe.com/sports/baseball/cal/stories/PE_Sports_Local_S_cal_feature_02.47a401c.html
“Carlos is extremely gifted offensively. He has a lot However, I must admit that people have swayed me and Iof bat speed and he’s disciplined. Defensively, he has above average skills when it comes to catching and throwing. He still needs to refine his receiving skills, his game calling ability and his ability to lead a pitching staff.” http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2009/02/cleveland_indians_prospect_pro.html
This shows he still has a lot to work on behind the plate. He may have the raw skills, but they are not refined yet. Is there a chance he sticks at catcher? Sure. Do I think it will happen? Probably not. However, I must admit that people have swayed me and I may have been wrong to rank Santana so low. People often overlook prospects because they see something they don’t like. Perhaps I was too focused on that and ignored everything I like about Santana. Personally I see him playing either first or third for the Indians as they have no long term ideal solution at those positions currently but maybe Santana will stick at catcher. I hope that satisfies everyones reasons for why I ranked him so low and why I may have been wrong on the subject. Fortunately, we won’t know if I was wrong for at least a few seasons. ;)
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 9, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you
I do appreciate the response. I guess my only question at this point becomes if the Indians believed this, wouldn’t they be moving him to one of these other positions now, to get some experience there? To me it doesn’t seem to make a lot sense to leave him at catcher now if they think he’s moving elsewhere. Quotes I posted earlier from Dewey’s referenced site seem to agree with the assessment that Santana does have some work to do, but that it’s things they think he can overcome. I didn’t post it above, but I believe there was a quote there also that mentioned Santana has put in lots of work on his English to eliminate the language barrier. Shapiro has said that Santana’s bat is MLB ready, so to me if they really thought his future was somewhere other than catcher, they’d go ahead and let him play. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward.
Thanks again for the response. It is much appreciated.
RIP Nick Adenhart
I also appreciate the response, but I have to question your sources. Paul Hoynes who wrote that cleveland.com article is hardly the right person to trust. Among many Indians fans, he’s considered a very mediocre baseball writer and reporter. Terry Pluto on the other hand would’ve given the thing more credibility.
That first article is something that was written well over a year ago when Santana was still with the Dodgers. That’s really not all that credible either, or atleast it’s not very up to date.
I don’t mind your personal opinions about Santana. If you’ve seen him play and think he doesn’t have the skills to stay behind the plate, that’s fine. However, even with some baseball knowledge, most of us here are far from professional scouts and when I see more distinguished outlets such as John, Kevin Goldstein, BA and not in the least the people running the Indians farm system refuting your statements, it’s very hard to gain support.
wow
From reading this info that you gave, the only reasonable conclusion I can make is that you and Dewey decided for whatever reason on your own that Santana wasn’t really a catcher, and that you then proceeded to search for information to back up your point rather than the other way around.
The first source you cite doesn’t say anything about him being bad defensively, only that he’s working on things . . .like every other prospect. Rest assured that even the best defensive catchers work on improving their technique.
The second quote actually goes directly against your argument, stating that Santana actually possesses “above average skills when it comes to catching and throwing.” It also mentions that he has things he needs to work on . . .once again, like every other prospect in the minors.
While I disagree with the list, I do heartily disagree with what appear to be faulty and at times disingenuous methods of manipulating the available information to suit your own needs.
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
alright guys
OK guys, let’s shut this thread down. Lots of noise, very little light at this point.
I don’t like the sock-puppet accusations. The best-known sock puppetteer in website history often accused others (who were innocent) of creating sock puppets. So let’s just back off that now.
I'm actually
curious who is the best known sock-puppeteer in web history.
haha
He wasn’t fun.. we lost a ton of good commenters after that. He had a few names, but I believe the most common was was Joba the Great.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Voted Cashner BUT
that’s because I’m not huge on the other 4 … I’m not really sold on Cashner as top 25 worthy yet. Now, he’s changing my mind about him being a starter, so that’s a huge leap. That said, while his slider can be nasty, the consistency isn’t there, and the changeup still needs more work. I’m just not sold he’s top 25 worthy, but voted for him more by default.
On a side note … let me take a moment to talk about the improving Cubs system for a second (seriously, I do this in like every other post here, what else did you expect). There’s a fairly solid chance of 4 top 100 guys (Vitters, J. Jackson, Cashner, Castro), with 2 more guys that probably have a shot at top 125 (Lee/Carpenter), plus some guys that might have a shot to tag as top 150 (namely, Brett Jackson … for a tools oriented list, he might go appreciably higher). Compared to a year ago, that’s a huge leap, and there’s upside at the lower levels, and a slowly strengthening pitching depth chart. What I love about the last couple of years has been the addition of different types of players. There’s toolsy, athletic guys, some power sluggers (none have really stepped up), up the middle players, guys that work counts, power and finesse arms. They haven’t gotten lockstepped into a style. I prefer a balanced system. Obviously, more is needed, but very pleased with the past year or so, particularly the 08 draft, which is looking like it might provide a lot of quality and some quantity.
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