Zep-Chin-Ski

by fuzzy14eva on Aug 5, 2009 9:40 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

Mark Rzepczynski's most recent start was a pretty good sign for the youngster, IMO.

His line was: 93 PC, 6 INN, 5 HA, 1 BBI, 7 K, 4 ER

The 4th run was allowed when Josh Roenicke allowed the Yanks to beat him up - unfortunate for Zep.

The 7/1 K/BB ratio really stick out to me, that's very, very good of course. What does everyone else think? Post away.

75 word minimum.

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Zep

Being able to watch 2 of his starts this year he looks like he has good potential, maybe No.2/3 SP ceiling or so. He’s kind of got a ‘long’ throwing motion with not overwhelming velocity, but a lot of movement in his pitches down in the strike zone. He changes his speeds real well and makes guys chase pitches too. Basically I see him as a guy who gets a healthy amount of K’s without overpowering stuff, getting majority GB-Outs, and currently a little wild a times (could be attributed to experience obviously), but the 1 BB tonight was a good sign.

by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 5, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

-1

a 2/3 starter…?

by alskor on Aug 6, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ceiling

So there is no chance that Rzepczynski at his peak could emerge as a No. 2/3 SP? That would put him roughly between the top 25-75 (to be safe, say around 50th best) or so SP as his ceiling. I see in no way shape or form how this is a bad comment….

by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 6, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has a good breaking ball and he knows how to pitch, change speeds and get groundballs. He’s good at those things. What is he bad at? He’s very hittable despite his K rate. His control isnt very good. Looks like a back end starter or reliever to me. Ive been pleasantly surprised so far by how he’s done… but lots of guys start this way and the league figures them out. Look at Andrew Sonnanstine. Yes, mono, but he’s probably a guy who’s good for a 4.50+ ERA. A year ago people were hyping him the same way I see people all over Rzepszynski. In fact, I liked Sonnanstine more.

by alskor on Aug 6, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sonnanstine and Rzepczynski are nothing alike.

Zep is a lefty who succeeds because of great movement, high K-rates, and high GB-rates, but poor control.
Sonnanstine is a righty with below-average stuff/movement, low K-rates, low GB-rates, and great control.

So you liked Sonnanstine and he didn’t turn out to be very good. Is your argument then that people liking Zep will cause him to be mediocre as well?

Also, Zep gave up 220 hits in 255 minor league innings, despite posting the highest groundball rates in the minors (in front of minor league infields). He’s given up 24 hits in 33.2 major league innings. What exactly is “very hittable” about that?

by PissedMick on Aug 6, 2009 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That wasnt at all my point

I was saying Rzepczinski is doing really well now and is getting overrated b/c of it. He’s not a 2/3 starter. He does not have that ceiling. The same sort of thing happend with Sonnanstine. I wasnt comparing them as pitchers. I was comparing the perception of them.

He’s fooling guys now, but his stuff just doesnt impress me. Im predicting he will be more hittable going forward.

by alskor on Aug 6, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

I’m not overrating Zep at all for what he’s done in the majors. It’s his performance in the minors that sold me (huge K-rates paired with ridiculous GB rates and mediocre control) and the fact that he’s repeating that in the majors so far only reinforces it.

by PissedMick on Aug 6, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Youve made some good points… its just going to take more than 5 starts for me to change my mind on him. His velocity and control scare the s*** out of me. Maybe Im making too much out of it. His Ks continue to dazzle me. Im impressed… but wary.

by alskor on Aug 6, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

perhaps you are “liking” the wrong type of pitchers. A prototypical flyball pitcher with poor stuff/K-rate and good control would be Jarrod Washburn. And a righty? It’s pretty tough to find a veteran righthanded pitcher with that skillset. Extreme groundball pitchers who run high K-rates are typically a good deal more successful.

by PissedMick on Aug 6, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So maybe I should like LHP’s who walk a lot of guys and top out at 85mph? No thanks. Point was theyre BOTH back of the rotation/long man/spot starter kind of guys ultimately. They could each have a few years of success and it wouldnt shock me, but theyre nothing special at all.

by alskor on Aug 6, 2009 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zep's avg fastball in the majors so far is 88.1 mph

that’s faster than lefties Ted Lilly (87.4), Barry Zito (86.4), and Mark Buehrle (85.7).

He’s less than 1 mph behind Randy Wolf (88.9), Andy Pettitte (88.8), and RHP Derek Lowe (88.5).

by PissedMick on Aug 6, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Love this guy

I think that Halladay-Zeppy-Romero makes for a very nice 1-2-3. If they can maybe trade Rios and upgrade in left and/or at catcher with a bat that’d be a nice team.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 5, 2009 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I Must Be Tired

First thing I thought of when I saw the post title was some Asian prospect I’ve never heard of.

I blame the Chin.

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by cwhitman412 on Aug 5, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Same here

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Aug 6, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, it's okay

I think I might’ve sprained my tongue trying to pronounce it.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Aug 6, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is effectively wild...

Needs better fastball command, but does a great job of getting the hitters to chase out of the strike zone. I love watching him freeze batters with his breaking ball. It seems he controls it better than the fastball. Love the ability to get Ks and grounders. He’s faced all the teams in the AL East and has only given up 2 HRs. It will be interesting to see how he does the 2nd time around this month.

Paul Thomas and RedSoxFaithful are in my Wolfpack.

by Dewey Finn on Aug 5, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree on the curve, It is something

I have seen many players with good judgment freeze up or swing through on that pitch. If he gets his command together and a more polished change he could be a #2 or 3 starter.

by tdot mariner fan on Aug 6, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-1

a 2/3 starter… ?

Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst

by hero66 on Aug 6, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I’d say more No 2/3 SP as a ceiling as opposed to polish on one pitch. But nevertheless, he does have some good stuff and will get better if he can continue to get GB outs and tighten his command.

by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 6, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am talking about his high-end potential

His curve combined with a solid change, better command, and the insane ground ball rates would make him that. The odds of all him achieving and keeping all four are less than 5 % but if he does do that, a #2/3 starter is a fair assessment. The more likely outcomes is that he stalls, makes minor improvements, regresses in ability, or his arm goes FUBAR from injuries. I think he has a very high floor with the potential to be a great deal more.

by tdot mariner fan on Aug 7, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See, the floor is the biggest concern with me

If his control were to regress even a little, or if he were to lose a couple ticks on his fastball I think he would get rocked.

by alskor on Aug 7, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen him described as a lefty Justin Masterson

watching him last night, it holds up. Great movement, long arm motion, GB’s and K’s and some control issues

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com

by harendaman365 on Aug 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh, and i petition to nickname him "eyechart"

who’s with me?

by harendaman365 on Aug 6, 2009 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Taken

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mientdo01.shtml

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Aug 6, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amendment

Rzepcynzski gets named The Eye Chart, your linked player is known simply as Minty Fresh.

"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)

by drjayphd on Aug 6, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs