is Chris Carter the next Ryan Howard???
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 4, 2009 6:59 PM EDT
92 comments
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=474892
discuss.
leads the texas league w/ a .975 OPS, next best player is 50 pts less.
Carter leads the texas league in hits, runs, doubles, obp, slg %, ops, etc. Along with being 2nd in walks, just behind league leader josh domadlson
he's hit .280 + at every level other than the 08 cal league.
.430+ OBP since june
So give me reasons why he's overlooked as a potential top 50 prospect?
Should be be promoted to AAA or stick to his 1 level per season approach theyve had his whole milb career?
4 recs |
92 comments
Email
Print
Comments
Hes only over looked for 2 reasons.
Strikeouts and Defense. Many thought he was a Jack Cust from the right side. But I think he has a chance of being a much better hitter than Cust.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Aug 4, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
strikeouts
He’s got a 20% k rate this year.
That’s better than most power hitting prospects.
by Galt on Aug 4, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
You are comparing a AAAA guy with a Hall of famer????
by Patriotreign3 on Aug 5, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
You’re calling him a AAAA guy based on a couple minutes of the Futures Game????
by ozzman99 on Aug 5, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see any Hall of Famers mentioned on this thread
Certainly not Ryan Howard, who’s not even close…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HR and RBI
Howard is a monster in both catagories and those (along with hits) is what draws HOF votes.
Fastest to reach 200 HR, least ABs needed to reach 500 RBI’s. If he sticks around until his late 30’s, he could be 500 HR and 1600-1700 RBI, both would warrant series HOF consideration
by ScottAZ on Aug 5, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He won't stick around until his late 30s, so that's a non-issue
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If....
Steve Balboni and Rob Deer could both stick around til’ 36 I don’t see why Howard can’t. That would b bare minimum of 8 more seasons.
by ScottAZ on Aug 6, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Terrible defender, not an elite hitter?
Teams are really moving away from that kind of player, especially once they become expensive. I’m standing by my statement— Ryan Howard will not stick around until his late 30s.
Besides, 500 HR hitters are two a penny nowadays. There is no way that all of them will be admitted to the Hall of Fame.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 6, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re
depends on how much the bat slows I guess. With the bat, fat sluggers there is always that possibility that they fizzle out in their early to mid 30s.
Howard will play as long as he can still swing it. He would obviously have to move to the AL.
As far as the 500 HR mark, I agree, that it won’t be automatic entry any longer, but that is due to steroid questions rather than performance. Howard has kept a clean name, so if he does reach 500 HR and 1600 RBI he would be in HOF company
by ScottAZ on Aug 6, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i love chris carter but i think,..
the one level per year approach is best for him
this has allowed him to make the adjustments he has needed to make every level with the chance of success
Happiness is only real when shared
by manny59 on Aug 4, 2009 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
When someone is trying to close holes in their swing, jumping them multiple levels is a really bad way to reinforce that.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rob Deer
I see him as being similar to Rob Deer. Almost identical walk totals and similar all or nothing approach at the plate. Carter will likely hit for better average than Deer, but won’t be able to match Deer’s defense.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 4, 2009 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All or nothing approach?
Where do you get that from?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 4, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
goofy comp...
Rob Deer hit .240…in the minors. In the high minors he hit less than .220 in over 1400 PAs, and had strikeout totals north of 40%. Similar power and patience, but Carter has an entirely different level of skill and refinement.
by AgitationStation on Aug 4, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
just peed myself laughing at that comp.
by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 5, 2009 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
im pretty sure bryan lahair is the next howard
fuck lookout landing for banning me for no reason at all...nerds
by bigdickwillie on Aug 4, 2009 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This clinches it
You are definitely a troll.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
have u seen lahairs numbers vs. RHP
fuck lookout landing for banning me for no reason at all...nerds
by bigdickwillie on Aug 4, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fantasy
In my Dynasty AL Only league, I traded Carter, a 1st round pick in next year’s minor league draft, a 2nd round pick, James Simmons and William Smith for Scott Kazmir.
I have Youkilis, Ortiz, Smoak and Lars Anderson at 1B (Teahen too, I suppose). Pitching is incredibly hard to come by and I had to pay a premium for a 25 year old strikeout pitcher signed to a very reasonable deal. Cap is $137M, and Kaz is signed 8.66 for three years and a 13.5 option.
It was basically overpay for a crap pitcher I cant keep or really overpay for a decent pitcher with lots of upside. I miss Carter though. And Smith.
by alskor on Aug 4, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the reason why he's not being hyped more is that people are finally starting to catch on
to the notion that defense is important. A shortstop is 25 runs more valuable than a DH based on position— that’s, give or take, about 125 OPS points worth. Maybe Chris Carter will outhit Alcides Escobar by 25 runs a season… but are you going to bet on it? (Actually, if Escobar is above-average defensively, the gap is even wider.)
I could be wrong, though… I’ve seen people ranking Brett Wallace in front of him, which is sort of weird… certainly you’d have to say he has about the highest ceiling of any of the 1B/DH prospects running around the minors right now, as he’s one of very few guys who realistically look like they could hit 50 HR a season. But ceiling isn’t everything, or even most of a player’s value.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Question
What method do you consider the best for ranking a players defense? MLB teams that have improved their defense have seen the records improve at a remarkable pace and I was wondering what you think are the best defensive measures.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 4, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really like CHONE's defensive projections
which are a weighted average of scouting report and defensive metrics, adjusted to an aging curve. Basically, the less objective (metric) information you have on a player, the more it relies on subjective (scouting) info.
UZR is good, but if you have enough time you should look at all of UZR, RZR and Plus-Minus. If a player is a big outlier in one system and close to average in the others, odds are the outlier is wrong.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about UZR that worries me is how different MGL's numbers are from FanGraphs
Shows just how much PBP data isn’t perfect (yet). That said, I still think they’re both far more reliable than your local home team’s color commentator.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why it's important to cross-check with other metrics if you're doing more than a back-of-envelope analysis
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about TotalZone?
Is that a reliable metric? Keeping in mind that I don’t know anything and will probably believe anything you say.
by ozzman99 on Aug 5, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TotalZone doesn't use play by play data
Instead, it uses a pseudo-PBP guess based on the type of batted ball and who ultimately fielded it. (So, for instance, ground balls fielded by the second baseman are credited to him, while he’s docked for grounders fielded by the right and center fielders.) So it’s less accurate than other metrics. It’s worth a look for minor leaguers especially (and also for players from prior eras), but I’d say it’s a tier below the three I’ve already listed.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still have issues with assigning negative defensive value to a DH (who is actually playing DH)
Because they aren’t costing ANY runs by not being out in the field somewhere. Their net defensive value is 0, but I don’t think Tango/MGL figure it that way.
by thejd44 on Aug 4, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still a negative
from a scarcity of resources perspective… Anyone can play DH.
by alskor on Aug 4, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but
while anyone can obviosuly DH, the nest question would be how much more valuable as a hitter is Carter than the ave DH? Just look at box scores from today and yesterday, DH’s include: Rob Quinlan, John Buck, Kevin Millar, Jason Kubel, Luke Scott, Mike Jacobs, Miguel Oliva, David Murphy and a host of other mediocre names.
Yes, anyone can DH, but how many batters can post an OPS of over .950? Only a handful of guys in the league. Carter relies soley on his stick for value, but his stick is easily one of the top five-ten in the minors (based off production)
by ScottAZ on Aug 4, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will Carter post a .950+ OPS?
As an A’s fan I’d love that, but that’s projecting him to be one of the 10 or so best hitters in the majors.
by ozzman99 on Aug 4, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He certainly has that type of potential
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 5, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kubel
has a .926 OPS this year so far, it’s not .950, but it isn’t mediocre either.
by smoooooth on Aug 5, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kubel's value is reduced by the fact that since he can't hit lefties, he mostly just sits out against them
If he played every day with a .926 OPS that’d be very impressive. It’s less impressive when he only faces his positive platoon split.
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by Player To Be Named Later on Aug 6, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DH
When you assign the value, when he is playing DH he isn’t loosing value defensively, that is the PLUS part of the DH. Adam Dunn is more valuable as a DH than an OF. It is still a negative on a player’s personal value, but the position is easy to fill (and i’m sure a ton of other reasons too)
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on Aug 5, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to have SOME kind of negative value for the opportunity cost of playing someone as a DH
If baseball was like football and you could substitute offense and defense freely, there wouldn’t be any opportunity cost to DHing, and all hitters would be valued the same.
That’s really what all of those positional adjustments are— a quantified opportunity cost for each position.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't agree
its only negative if it affects the team in a negative manner and costs them wins. if he was in the NL it would be negative, but his glove will never see the grass in the AL. Having a guy with the potential to post OPS of .950+ can only affect a team positiveky in the AL. The only arguement could be his terrible defense keeps others from the DH spot, but considering he is easily one of the top 5-10 bats in the minors right now, it doesn’t matter who he keeps on the bench
by ScottAZ on Aug 4, 2009 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you actually read what I wrote?
The only arguement could be his terrible defense keeps others from the DH spot
Yes, and Tango and friends have found that “keeping others from the DH spot” costs the average team in the neighborhood of 17.5 runs a season.
The fact that opportunity costs do not involve the payment of actual money does not make them any less real.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tango and friends, LOL
you can create psuedo stats to back pretty much any statement.
In the past few days names in the DH slot have included: Rob Quinlan, John Buck, Kevin Millar, Luke Scott, Mike Jacobs, Miguel Oliva, David Murphy and Andy Marte. If Carter can produce in the majors along the same lines he has in the minors (ops .900+), then only a fool would consider him a detriment from keeping one of the affermentioned on the bench
by ScottAZ on Aug 6, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look at the teams that most of those guys were DHing for
As that should show the inherent flaw in your reasoning.
And I don’t think it’s fair to use the example of an outfielder who’s being cycled through the position.
by Fanon on Aug 6, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
Who should we accept as the authority here? A guy who spends hundreds of hours working on designing the best measures of baseball value and has been hired by Major League Baseball teams to work for them? Or, you?
Yeah, I really don’t think you want to play the credibility game here.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 6, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
You guys crack me up with your fellating of some of these fringe sabermetrics guys. Bill James has been doing this stuff for how many years? How many times has he been hired as a GM?
What people like you cannot understand is there is no perfect formula. Numbers will always contradict each other. Your flavor of the week now will be yesterday’s news tomorrow.
And please, Playing the Percentages is an interesting read, but name one GM that hired him as you say
by ScottAZ on Aug 6, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James
Bill James has been doing this stuff for how many years? How many times has he been hired as a GM?
What does James not being a GM have to do with anything? Isn’t that like arguing that someone isn’t a great economist because they were never chairmen of the Fed?
Numbers will always contradict each other. Your flavor of the week now will be yesterday’s news tomorrow.
If you mean that future research may make current information obsolete, that’s the nature of the beast, isn’t it? Did the invention of fuel injection mean that carburetors stopped working?
by ozzman99 on Aug 6, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I no longer have any desire to waste additional time on you
You’re not interested in having a good faith argument, nor are you willing to put even an ounce of effort into making intelligent posts.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 6, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tom Tango
http://ussmariner.com/2009/01/05/ms-hire-tom-tango/
LOL, as they say
by jibs on Aug 6, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The cost of DHing Suzuki is that Cust has to play RF and drops a ball that otherwise would have been caught
Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.
by designatedforassignment on Aug 4, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In that case
shouldn’t Cust being being slotted in at DH give him a positive defensive value vs. him actually playing the field.
by smoooooth on Aug 4, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, it depends on whether the negative value of him playing the field
is sufficient to overcome the opportunity cost of playing him at a position that can be played by any baseball player. It’s possible for a guy to be so bad at defense that his team is actually better off DHing him, but usually the guy given the DH slot is just the worst defender on the team.
In the case of Jack Cust, the answer is probably “no,” although it’s close.
One of the factors that fouls up these calculations is that players on the whole actually hit worse as DH’s than they would otherwise. I’d encourage everyone to just read the chapter of “The Book” on positional adjustments, because Tango et al know what they’re talking about and have done a hell of a lot more work than any of us have on this issue.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, Your explanation here makes sense.
I guess the truth is that very few major leaguers are actually so terrible on defense that having them at DH really is their “best” position. Still, a properly constructed team that has one DH-only type doesn’t much bother me, except for interleague play.
As for that chapter in The Book, they acknowledge some potential flaws with their study. Their study included two groups that I think hurt the study: Players who have nagging injuries who DH for an extended period because of this and players who are DHing to “get a rest.” One group may have suffering performance based on health; the other group may suffer from doing something they’re not used to doing.
The real players who should be studied here are guys like Frank Thomas in his later years, David Ortiz, etc. These are TRUE DHs. The problem: You can’t compare them to when they play the field because they don’t (and comparing 90s Thomas to 00s Thomas obviously won’t work).
I guess my point is this, and I think The Book guys would agree what I’m saying is possible: There isn’t actually a DH penalty for the players who actually are a real DH and do it day in and day out. Those guys would not be better with the bat if they were also in the field.
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the truth is that very few major leaguers are actually so terrible on defense that having them at DH really is their "best" position.
More like the opposite… there are tons of baseball players whose “best” position would be DH. That’s why its easy to fill with a decent bat.That’s the problem and that’s why playing someone there is a negative value.
Or at least should be, outside of the way teams actually use it…
by alskor on Aug 5, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess the truth is that very few major leaguers are actually so terrible on defense that having them at DH really is their "best" position. Still, a properly constructed team that has one DH-only type doesn’t much bother me, except for interleague play.
Exactly. It’s actually kind of difficult to find players who are both truly great hitters and truly awful fielders. There’s a certain baseline athletic ability (hand-eye coordination, strength, etc) required to be a great hitter which can’t help but translate over into defense on some level or other.
They do exist, but not in sufficient numbers to fill up the DH position for 14 major league teams. I’d guess there probably isn’t more than one new player a year who fits into this category— the supply is just too small. The rest of the teams then fill the void by shifting guys who are merely bad fielders to the position (or sometimes by just rotating their other guys through it, although I’m not a big fan of that strategy), which in turn has the net effect of increasing average defensive prowess in the league.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
you were tongue in cheek, but I agree. Cust sucks on defense, if he’s playing RF its managements fault for putting together a team filled with DH types (Cust, Giambi, Suzuki, Barton, Garcipara, etc). Cust is extremely valuable in the right role. If management doesn’t use them in that role its on them, not Cust
by ScottAZ on Aug 4, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suzuki and Barton are DH types?
I was under the impression that Suzuki was excellent behind the plate, and from what I understand, Barton has turned himself into a pretty good first basemen.
by ozzman99 on Aug 4, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Suzuki is probably the best defensive catcher in the AL right now
The A’s have virtually no wild pitches and passed balls despite a pitching staff which is hardly filled with control artists, and he’s no slouch at controlling the running game.
As for Barton, he’s indeed a good first baseman, although there are limits to how far a first baseman can help you on defense. Also, it would help if he didn’t hurt himself trying to make unnecessarily difficult plays.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And of course, as soon as I say this, a catcher-defense study comes out
on which Suzuki doesn’t score all that great (although he’s definitely in the above-average camp).
He’s still about 30 runs better as a catcher than as a DH though.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another way to think of it besides scarcity is
that the DH has 0 defensive value and everyone else in the field (except the truly awful) has some positive value. Defense isn’t measured that way because it’s more useful to measure everyone against average than against “not playing,” but ultimately there is no difference.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
by mikeA on Aug 5, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This
Although Matt LaPorta seems to have been grandfathered in from the “pre-defense matters” days. I can’t understand why he’s consistently ranked ahead of guys like Escobar and Andrew McCutchen (before he graduated).
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 5, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark Reynolds is a better comp in my mind....
Will hit for power. will strikeout a lot…the only two certainties.
by soccerman0 on Aug 4, 2009 8:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If he's like this year's Mark Reynolds, sign me the **** up
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True that....
Dave Kingman version 2.0
by soccerman0 on Aug 4, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by Player To Be Named Later on Aug 5, 2009 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have doubts that Mark Reynolds is like this year's Mark Reynolds
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe so, but I have doubts that Chris Carter is, too
Even he’s never whiffed at the ridiculous rates Reynolds is posting nowadays.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kingman didn't walk
What made Kingman an offensive black hole was the combination of low average, high strikeouts and low walks. Carter strikes out plenty (although better this year than in the past) but he also takes loads of walks, generally a league leading or near league leading number. Assuming he is going to be a low average hitter (which may not be so if this year is any indication), being average to somewhat above average at taking a walk (like Reynolds) or way above average (like Cust) should put Carter at a whole different level than Kingman’s typical 240/285/495 season.
by Dalman on Aug 5, 2009 1:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we’re missing a tool Reynolds has here, the Speed lever
Reynolds swipes bags!
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 5, 2009 3:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carter has shown better AVG skills than Reynolds in the minors
So they can balance out lol
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by Player To Be Named Later on Aug 5, 2009 4:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter has double-digit SB this season, for what it's worth
He’s not some lumbering schlub limping around the basepaths.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn had a couple of 20+ SB years in the minors
For what that’s worth. Like Dunn, he’s not unathletic as a young man. Just big. And going to get bigger.
by aap212 on Aug 5, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn?
I know Dunn and Howard are fairly similar, but Howard had an odd career path, etc., so I think a Dunn comp might make a little more sense.
by aap212 on Aug 5, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is Carter being compared to either?
Yeah, he K’s a lot, but not near the rate that either of them do, IIRC. He doesn’t walk as much as Dunn, but walks more than Howard. He’s shown the ability to hit for a better average than both.
Am I way off here?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 5, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meant to put this in that post, but
What about Jason Bay as a comp for Carter, hitting wise? With more power.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 5, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you're expecting him to hit in the area of .310-.320, then yeah, you are
i see carter’s best case as more of a .290/.380/.650 hitter. that’s what i have in the back of my mind when i look at him. i think he’s got as good a chance as just about any minor leaguer to consistently hit .270/.350/.550 over the first 10 years of his major league career.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 5, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.650?
That’s a typo, right?
And no, when I compare him to Bay I don’t expect .310-.320, because Bay’s never done that. He’s hit .300 once. Wouldn’t surprise me if Carter lucked his way into a .300 BA one year, though.
Bay is a career .280/.375/.510 guy. I could Carter doing something like that. More power, though.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 5, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that sounds about right to me
I could see the OBP being a little lower and the SLG being a little higher, but not far from what you have. I was thinking something around .270/.360/.540 for Carter, although I was thinking more about that being his peak years rather than his career averages.
by ozzman99 on Aug 5, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter vs. Howard
It’s funny, their career minor league stats are not that dissimilar. Howard hit for slightly higher average and slightly more power, while Carter walks a little more and K’s a little less. Howard played in less hitter-friendly leagues (FSL and EL, versus Cal and Tex), but he was also 2 years older than Carter when he played at those levels.
My guess is that Carter will likely end up continuing to walk more and K less than Howard, giving him a somewhat higher average and higher OBP in the majors. I don’t think Carter will hit as many home runs as Howard, especially with Oakland as his home park, but I think he may hit more doubles.
by ozzman99 on Aug 5, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i may be a complete moron....
but is Jim Thome comparison completely off? maybe a lil higher avg for Carter?
by grizman_85 on Aug 5, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thome and Carter
In his prospect reviews at the beginning of the year ,my recollection is that in his review of Carter, Goldstein said his upside was “Thome with 30 less walks per season”. So, maybe a pretty good comp. Given that he seems to have made big strides in contact this year, the only big question mark I see is his .extremely ordinary 788 OPS on the road. Anyone have a good source for team home/away batting stats in the minors?
by Dalman on Aug 5, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Midland is by no means a hitter's paradise
It’s a pitcher’s park in a hitter’s league, so roughly neutral overall.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 5, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to supress HR and inflate DBLs.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Aug 6, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Thome had some ridiculous years
I’m partial to 2002 myself. If Chris Carter turned out to be Jim Thome I’d jump for joy, possibly literally
WordUpThome: I CANNOT BELIVE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT BUTTER
Formerly Gallagher's Watermelons
by Player To Be Named Later on Aug 6, 2009 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Carter turns into Thome,
he’d most likely be a HOFer. I can see him having some Thome like years, but that’s a lot to say about a prospect.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 6, 2009 5:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
