Thoughts on the King Felix trade rumors?

by cowboy4eva on Aug 3, 2009 9:30 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

Assuming these rumors are true:

The Mariners according to Geoff Baker, would have gotten to choose the five Red Sox prospects among a list of eight. Those eight included RHPs Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard, LHPs Felix Doubrant and Nick Hagadone, SS Yamaico Navarro and OF Josh Reddick.

A three-way trade with the Padres and Sox would have netted the Mariners: Clay Buchholz and Adrian Gonzalez plus two (unknown) Red Sox prospects

The 3 way deal intrigues me more from a M's perspective. Of course the 2 Red Sox prospects are the key, who are they? Also I believe the M's would have had to trade prospects in this deal, Truinfel is a name I think I read was rumored in this deal going to SD.

I agree with the M's holding onto Felix, but I wouldn't have hung up the phone feeling insulted with either offer. With that 3 way, depending on the details, I may have been interested in working on that. The thought of trading Felix Hernandez makes me nervous, even just pretending to be the M's GM.

Edit: I think the rumors were Truinfel and Morrow going to SD. I wouldn't entertain tht offer if that's true, even though I feel both prospects are overrated in their own way.

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How many more years

do the Mariners have control over Felix? He is a very valuable, and relatively inexpensive, asset.

The “two unknowns” from the Sox sound like dust in the wind.

zzard (Arlington, VA)

by zzard on Aug 3, 2009 9:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder why they haven’t signed Felix long term before this season.

The thing is, Felix is still so young and he’s been relatively healthy. The chance that any of those prospects becomes as good as him is very slim. Just lock him up and enjoy the show.

Neither offer was insulting though.

by JP_Frost on Aug 3, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think they've been trying

or that they’ve put feelers out and and worried that they won’t be able to come close, which is how these ideas of a Felix trade seem to be creeping up.

by toonsterwu on Aug 3, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The three way was fascinating

Depending on who the two prospects were. That said, I can’t disagree with Zduriencik’s thinking, that they will probably get offers next year that are close enough, so hold onto Felix and see if they can’t sign him.

by toonsterwu on Aug 3, 2009 10:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Both deals were absolute crap.

Buchholz is a fine starter, but no Anderson, Tazawa, Kelly, or Westmorland? I’m hanging up the phone. You’re not going to dump Buchholz + a bunch of suspects on me for Felix. Say what you want about Masterson, Bowden, or Bard, they’re not enough as a secondary piece for Felix. Hagadone, Droubront, Navarro, and Reddick are all maybes.

The second trade makes no sense. Why would the Mariners have to give up MORE to get Gonzalez and only THREE Boston prospects? I’m guessing the second trade has more names involved or the inclusion of M’s prospects to San Diego was untrue. It was probably more likely Boston giving up prospects to San Diego and Seattle and getting Felix while the Mariners get Gonzalez. That’s the only way that makes sense.

Even then, it’s still crap. We can speculate on who the “two other prospects from Boston” were, and we can speculate it was from the same list as above. However, now it gets thinner. Adrian Gonzalez is cheap for only two more years, then he’s probably gone. If you want to say the same thing about Felix, fine, but he’s much more valuable than a lefty power hitting first baseman. The Mariners have one of those right now anyway, and got him for 2 million on the scrap heap. Why would they trade for one? I’m also not convinced AG can do as well in the AL, even in SafeCo.

Sorry, both of those deals suck. Kudos to Jack Zduriencik for saying no.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 3, 2009 11:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have more guts than I do

I’m always afraid of relying so heavily on a single person, especially a starting pitcher who hasn’t turned 25 yet. Before the year started, BP said that Felix Hernandez had pitched so many innings at such a young age that it was only a matter of time before it started taking a toll. This seems like a decently likely possibility to me.

There are worse 1-2 combos than Buchholz and Masterson, particularly behind Bedard. Daniel Bard is already a closer-quality reliever. Reddick might be ready to make the majors now, and is at most a year away. As for the 5th person, I’d probably go with Hagadone, though I can understand why somebody would take Bowden. Either way, the real possibility of getting 2 solid major league starters, a very good closer, and a good OF, all of whom are quite affordable, seems like an offer that’s at least worth considering. All that being said, I don’t know if I’d take it as the Mariners, but I’d certainly think about it.

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by OldProspects on Aug 4, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reddick...

has started in the OF the last two games for Boston. Hit his first HR on Sunday.

Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.

by Boxkutter on Aug 4, 2009 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

But he hasn’t proven that he can stick there long-term. This could be a Jordan Schafer situation, where he’s going to need some more time before staying in the majors

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by OldProspects on Aug 4, 2009 6:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schafer

Schafer’s issues were largely due to a wrist injury he suffered shortly after the season began. He wasn’t too forthcoming about it, and Atlanta didn’t have any alternatives until they traded for McLouth, so they just kept running him out there. It’s the same injury that’s kept him sidelined in AAA since being sent down.

Not saying he was “ready” necessarily, just that unless Reddick has an undisclosed injury that’s keeping him from being able to hit anything on the inner half of the plate, I’m not sure the situations are comparable.

by mraver on Aug 4, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, Adrian Gonzalez is really good at baseball

A trade of him straight up for Hernandez isn’t outrageous, given the respective amounts of money they’re likely to make in the near future, risk premium, etc.

Maybe it doesn’t fit into where the Mariners are in the success cycle, but from a talent standpoint, I think Hernandez for Gonzalez, Buchholz and two more prospects is a no-brainer.

I don’t think I’d necessarily do that if I had to include Triunfel and Morrow as well, but it’d depend on who the unnamed Boston duo was.

The offers certainly were not “absolute crap,” as you hyperbolically claim.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps I'm just unfamiliar with the M's system

But do they have an ace in waiting to take over for Hernandez?

Because if they don’t, and were to move him for Gonzalez, even getting a big package back, it would seem to be a bit of a lateral move, considering that they’d be losing Hernandez, Bedard, and Washburn in a three month span. Where do they replace that pitching depth?

by Fanon on Aug 4, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theyd have been getting Buchholz back

as well as (probably) Masterson and/or Bowden/Hagadone. There’s reason to believe Buchholz will be an Ace shortly, though obviously no one is Felix Hernandez. You could certainly make an argument the M’s would be better off with Gonzalez, Buchholz +

by alskor on Aug 4, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They might be better off getting 2 good pitchers to replace 1 great one

Right now their pitching depth chart looks like:

Felix
Bedard
…
…
…
Ryan Rowland-Smith

and Bedard’s deal is up at the end of the season. No real prospects in the high minors. They’re in pretty bad shape pitching-wise.

If anything, my argument against the trade is that a true rebuilding trade, moving Felix for a Haren-type package of numerous good prospects, would be a better way to go.

by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's sort of what I was getting at

If they’re moving Felix for that package, it sort of strikes me as robbing Peter to pay Paul, even with Buchholz coming back, when they ought to be making a trade where they’ll get a bigger haul. Gonzalez is great, but I think that’s more of a guarantee to play .500 ball than it is to truly contend.

by Fanon on Aug 4, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its gotta be really hard to take over an organization and trade a young Ace pitcher

and get only prospects back.

Quick recipe for getting fired.

by alskor on Aug 4, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I’m just saying, public perception aside, if they’re going to trade him, the proposed trade seems to be one that would guarantee getting stuck in Blue Jays type mediocrity, considering the Angels aren’t going anywhere, the Rangers are only getting better, and the A’s look excellent going forward.

by Fanon on Aug 4, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I’d think the period just after hiring a GM (or, if you’re the GM, just after you’re hired) would be the best time to make a move like that— he has political capital with the fans, can sell it as “cleaning house,” reorienting the team’s future, etc etc etc. If anyone has the capital to sell a rebuilding job to his fanbase, it’s Zduriencik.

by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Normally, I can see that

but this isnt an aging star… this is super young and cheap Felix Hernandez.

by alskor on Aug 4, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

super young ~~and cheap~~ Felix Hernandez

He is about to become quite expensive, probably in the $8-10M range for next year and $15M or more the year after that (assuming no major decline). It’s a damn sight better than free agent prices, but the days of him providing value for peanuts are over.

Besides, that didn’t stop Beane from trading Haren and Swisher… or Huntington from trading— well, just about everyone on the Pirates…

by PaulThomas on Aug 4, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs