Texas Rangers Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 28, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
Email
PrintTexas Rangers Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published December 18, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.
1) Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade A: 3.49 ERA with 75/30 K/BB in 77 innings for Oklahoma City, 0.55 ERA with an amazing 21/1 K/BB in 16 innings in the majors so far. An outstanding young pitcher.
2) Justin Smoak, 1B, Grade A-: Excellent in Double-A (.328/.449/.481), not so good in Triple-A (.240/.359/.350). Hampered by a strained oblique. I think he'll be fine.
3) Elvis Andrus, SS, Grade A-: Hitting .269/.334/.384 with 24 steals in 26 attempts for the Rangers. Looks like he'll be an excellent player to me.
4) Derek Holland, LHP, Grade B+: 4.95 ERA with 86/35 K/BB in 109 innings for the Rangers, 118 hits allowed. He was rushed, but is holding his own.
5) Taylor Teagarden, C, Grade B: Hitting .194/.263/.375 in 144 at-bats for the Rangers. I think if he got regular playing time that he'd do a lot better than this.
6) Julio Borbon, OF, Grade B: .307/.367/.386 with 25 steals for Oklahoma City, hitting .415/.478/.537 with nine steals in 14 major league games. That won't last, but he's made a lot of progress refining his tools.
7) Engel Beltre, OF, Grade B: Hitting .227/.281/.317 with 17 steals in 24 attempts for Class A Bakersfield. Great tools, but still very very raw.
8) Michael Main, RHP, Grade B: 7.33 ERA with 45/36 K/BB in 54 innings for Bakersfield. On rehab assignment in rookie ball right now. Disappointing season.
9) Max Ramirez, C, Grade B: hitting .234/.310/.332 for Oklahoma City, hampered by a wrist injury all year.
10) Martin Perez, LHP, Grade B-: 2.31 ERA with 105/33 K/BB in 94 innings for Class A Hickory. Promoted to Double-A at age 18, pitched poorly in his first two starts but well in the third.
11) Kasey Kiker, LHP, Grade B-: 3.86 ERA with 120/66 K/BB in 126 innings for Double-A Frisco, 108 hits. Very good stuff, command is still erratic.
12) Neil Ramirez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.33 ERA with 47/36 K/BB in 60 innings for Hickory, 50 hits. I thought he was a breakthrough candidate, but it hasn't happened. Components aren't too impressive at this point.
13) Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, Grade C+: 3.27 ERA with 90/29 K/BB in 107 innings between Frisco and Oklahoma City. I think he can be a useful swingman type.
14) Kennil Gomez, RHP, Grade C+: 5.71 ERA with 118/63 K/BB in 123 innings for Bakersfield, 140 hits. Not exactly a great season, but still has interesting potential.
15) Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade C+: 4.42 ERA with 28/11 K/BB in 79 innings for Frisco, 102 hits. He throws strikes and is just 20 years old, but his K/IP is very low and he gives up a huge number of hits.
16) Wilfredo Boscan, RHP, Grade C+: 3.35 ERA with 58/16 K/BB in 97 innings for Hickory, 95 hits. Good command, strikeout rate is low, just 19 years old.
17) Tim Murphy, LHP, Grade C+: 7.24 ERA with 82/53 K/BB in 123 innings for Bakersfield, 175 hits. I thought he'd do a lot better than this. Even considering California League environment, this is pretty dismal.
18) Wilmer Times New Roman Font, RHP, Grade C+: 3.32 ERA with 92/53 K/BB in 95 innings for Hickory, 80 hits. Just 19, loads of potential but sneeds to sharpen command.
19) Tommy Hunter, RHP, Grade C+: 2.85 ERA with 41/22 K/BB in 66 innings for the Rangers. Can't complain about that.
20) Eric Hurley, RHP, Grade C+: His arm fell off.
21) Robbie Ross, LHP, Grade C+: 2.98 ERA with 68/16 K/BB in 63 innings for short-season Spokane. Looks like a breakthrough guy for 2010. Note 3.41 GO/AO ratio.
22) Omar Poveda, RHP, Grade C+: 4.45 ERA with 59/46 K/BB in 115 innings for Frisco, 119 hits. Don't like the low strikeout rate.
23) Joe Wieland, RHP, Grade C+: 5.52 ERA with 63/21 K/BB in 73 innings for Hickory, 91 hits. Throws strikes, gets some grounders, just 19, could still develop.
24) Jose Vallejo, 2B, Grade C+: hitting .248/.291/.324 between Frisco, Oklahoma City, and Round Rock, just traded to Astros. Not too impressive this year with the bat, but a slick glove.
The Rangers entered 2009 with an outstanding farm system. Andrus has been terrific all season, Feliz and Borbon have been awesome since being promoted, and Holland is coming along nicely considering that he was rushed pretty fast. I still think Teagarden could be a very good player if given a full opportunity. Injuries have hampered the development of Smoak, Ramirez, and some of the pitchers, but there is still a lot to like here even with the graduation of Andrus and Holland beyond rookie status. The failure to sign Matt Purke in the 2009 draft hurts, and I'm not sure what is going on with Tanner Scheppers, with rumors that he could end up in Japan. The club needs to resolve its financial problems, but clearly the baseball development personnel know what they are doing if given the resources.
68 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Right now
Olerud or Overbay.
People a lot more knowledgable than me have thrown out Morneau/Teixeira/Agon comps liberally, though.
These Olerud/Overbay comps are so silly to me
Theyre entiely b/c he hasnt shown power in ~220 ABs at AAA – and they ignore the fact scouts dont really have any concerns about his power, and that he’s in AAA a year after being drafted, AND the oblique injury.
People would have laughed at these low power comps before the season – or even after his AA performance, where he crushed the ball. So, player crushes the ball, has an oblique injury, tries to return from it early and goes back on the DL after a day or two, starts hitting again, gets rushed to AAA and has 200+ ABs with a low SLG and suddenly his comps go from “Mark Teixeira” or “a switch hitting Morneau” to “John Olerud.”
That’s what I call a knee jerk reaction.
I'm not disagreeing with anything regarding Smoak
But more of a general prospect thing here. I often here about how scouts “don’t worry” about so-and-so developing power. The theory is, I suppose, that size/strength (maybe even batting practice power) convinces scouts that these players will, at some point, demonstrate that power. But why?
Are there cases of a player like Smoak – or, the guy I’m thinking of with this, Ryan Sweeney – ever ACTUALLY developing that power? Are there a ton of non-PED guys who “project power” but only hit 10 a season in the minors, but then hit age 25/26 and start jacking 30? Maybe this happens a lot. I don’t actually know. What I do know is that Ryan Sweeney is big, strong, and when he turns on the ball 7 times a year it’ll go out. Usually, he’s just a singles hitter with “projected power.”
by thejd44 on Aug 28, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I can understand the John Olerud thing...
but Smoak WILL hit for more power. I could see him hitting 35+ bombs a year, but having John Olerud statistics in every other category including defense.
That's a nearly impossible contradiction
The things that made Olerud good were also what disallowed him to hit for that kind of power, unless you’re Barry Bonds or Albert Pujols. You have described, essentially, a Hall of Famer.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
How so...
Olerud had only a few years where he batted well over 300, but otherwise most of his stats were average other than his OBP, which Smoak will have a tough time matching, but he is said to have good plate discipline. I can’t see Smoak ever batting 340 or 360 like Olerud did two or three times, but I can see him sitting around 300 with a 375+ OBP and a few 35-40 homerun years.
You said Olerud stats except lots more power.
You can’t have the average and BB/K rates like Olerud had if you’re going to hit for that much power. Unless you’re expecting a Hall of Famer.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, plenty of players develop power
A random sampling of players who hit 33+ HR in the majors and had less power in the minors (and who were at least roughly analogous to Smoak age wise; i.e. no MLB teenagers):
(MiLB ISO vs. MLB ISO)
Jim Edmonds: .144 vs .244
Todd Helton: .163 vs .240
Carlos Lee: .157 vs .213
Brian Giles: .144 vs .211
Garrett Anderson: .108 vs .198
Magglio Ordenez: .149 vs .202
Grady Sizemore: .122 vs .210
Smoak ISO: .157
Now maybe you think some of those guys are “PED Guys,” but its not an unknown phenomenon.
However, Ryan Sweeney really didn’t show any power in the minors (ISO = .114), which is Jacoby Ellsbury (MiLB ISO = .112) territory, so I don’t think he’s really analogous to Smoak, or most of the guys I listed above.
Fair enough
I’m not going to argue or debate any of the players listed, but I guess what I’m wondering is…can we figure out why some of these guys who “project power” get there and why some don’t (but still can hang in the majors, like with Sweeney). Is there something we can learn from looking a little more closely at these types of players.
by thejd44 on Aug 28, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why player comps are so silly
Smoak would be lucky to become any of those players at a certain point. Or did you not know that John Olerud’s career OPS is better than Morneau’s as it stands? He’s just as likely to be Travis Lee as Mark Teixiera.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Travis Lee
Did look pretty fantastic in the minors, didn’t he? Just goes to show…
by blackoutyears on Aug 28, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
A slight disagreement
I, too, find it amusing how quickly the comps for Smoak have shifted in a new direction. But I don’t think the root of the concerns about his power is just from his AAA performance. He displayed relatively average power in AA, even while otherwise tearing it up, and his career professional ISO in .157, which is almost precisely league average (I believe).
As a professional, he has really hasn’t shown top notch power at any point. I don’t think that can be disputed. That’s not to say it isn’t coming, but still.
Well
Theyre entiely b/c he hasnt shown power in ~220 ABs at AAA
Not really. Those comps were made before the season.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 28, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
John
How impressive is Perez right now? He’s an 18 year old with 3 plus pitches, evidently plus command with great composure and maturity. He just threw a shutout in AA. Reiterating… at 18.
I heard Johan Santana comps last year....
and thought they were ridicoulis. Now, I think they are dead on. This kid is going to be special.
It was interesting reading through the original thread
Was Feliz deserving of his A- ranking? The skeptics believed he lacked some polish and wondered if Feliz should be ranked ‘head and shoulders’ above other prospects [like Oakland’s Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill].
On the other hand, believers thought Feliz would be probably be capable of the things he is doing [right now as a reliever and at the beginning of his MLB career].
Questions about Michael Main’s apparent durability – I believe has missed a chunk of the 2009 season with some kind of illness/injury, so there was cause for concern there.
Some mention about where Pedro Strop maybe the 25th top prospect? He was just called up, so it was interesting he was mentioned in the original thread, when I don’t know much about him.
Is Elvis Andrus a legitimate shortstop prospect? It seems like he is putting up the mediocre numbers projected for him, but comparable players his age are still probably in the minors, so he hasn’t exactly embarrassed himself.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
Main just pitched an inning in rookie ball
hitting 93 on the gun. I think he may have struck out the side. He suffered from a viral infection this year. I would much rather a pitcher lose a season due to sickness than injury.
Mediocre numbers for Andrus? His season line of .269/.334/.384 is only lacking in the slugging dept. Like last year in Frisco, he is putting up a nice second half: .304/.373/.455.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
Huh?
Is Andrus a legitimate SS prospect? That’s hilarious. He’s already one of the top defensive SS in the major leagues, and is holding his own at the plate and he just turned 21 this week. He’s not a legit prospect, he’s a legit major leaguer and maybe a future all-star.
On Main, he had some sort of mystery virus that apparently sapped his strength, so any numbers he has this year are not a reliable indicator of his potential. Still, as you say he needs to stay healthy. Strop had injury concerns last year, and that’s why CO took a chance on leaving him unprotected. The Rangers took advantage of it and now that he’s healthy he’s been terrific lately.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think Andrus has had a solid season
Was just restating the premise of the posts original thread, when Andrus’ name was mentioned.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
Elvis Andrus
Take a historical look at SS that break into the ML at age 20 and don’t embarass themselves with the bat, because the list is pretty short and has a few HOFers on it.
Also, note his adjustment to the big leagues since the ASB: .293 / .362 / .440. Don’t underestimate his offensive potential.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
That batting line since the ASB is amazing
The guy looks like one of the top SSs in the league right now.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I thought he was rushed
as far as his offense goes. he has been impresive to say the least.
And feliz has been way better than his minor league line, although I suppose some of that is relieving versus starting.
Look and see what the Wizard was doing at 20. Elvis way ahead of that.
"We have a better chance to win with other guys in the lineup," said Blalock, who is hitting .190 the past 30 games. "That’s something I’ve got to deal with."
by diamond_dave on Aug 28, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
while you are at it..
try Tony Fernandez and Roberto Alomar as comps.
Teagarden looks like a backup
Strange how rich the Rangers looked at C just a year or so ago, w/ Salty, Teagarden and Max Ramirez, but now that position looks something like a void. Who is going to step up? I’d still put money on Salty, but not very much money . . .
I think Teagarden’s still got a shot as a starter. Some of the Rangers fans might be able to give more insight here (having seen him play in the majors), but he’s always rated as an excellent receiver. I don’t think he’s a star, but I can still see him as a .250/.330/.450 catcher with plus defense, which makes him a pretty solid starter in my book.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 28, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
observations on Teagarden
From what I’ve seen so far, the total defensive package is above average, but certainly not GG caliber. He has had some problems blocking balls in the dirt.
As for the bat, contact is a pretty big issue. I agree with your projected 70 point split in obp-avg, but a .250 ba might be more of a ceiling, rather than an expected outcome. He swings and misses on a lot of hittable strikes.
"You can probably stick a fork in the Rangers' playoff chances for 2009." - AJM on 7/26 with the team 4.5 games out
I'd agree with this
See him as more of a 235/310/410 sort of guy.
He'll hit for more power than that
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
We'll show you Obama's birth certificate as soon as you show us Sarah Palin's high school diploma...
by Brian Thomas on Aug 28, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
you can't hit for power if you can't hit the ball.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
do you understand slugging percentage?
by BrentTaylor21 on Aug 28, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And
Carlos Pena
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
175
is quite a bit of isolated power for a catcher
by richieabernathy on Aug 28, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
#18
Has the best baseball name, EVER!
18) Wilmer Times New Roman Font
"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith
Julio Borbon
Is he the starting center fielder next season john?
I'm not John, but most believe yes
Byrd is a free agent and it is most likely the Rangers let him walk
borbon
Yeah i think he will probably play.
by John Sickels on Aug 28, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Dustin Nippert
Is he a future mid-rotation starter now, or just a decent swingman? How is his stuff this year?
He’s quietly putting up a nice line, 4.02 era in 12 games and 8 starts, with solid ratios: 7.2 k/9, 4.4 bb/9, 0.92 hr/9.
Until he walked 7 in 3 2/3 yesterday....
The other sports are just sports. Baseball is a love. ~Bryant Gumbel, 1981
Last 4 outings 99 pitches slightly over 5 innings per outings.
He is 28 and looks to be headed back to pen soon and passed by several next year.
"We have a better chance to win with other guys in the lineup," said Blalock, who is hitting .190 the past 30 games. "That’s something I’ve got to deal with."
by diamond_dave on Aug 28, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
he's gonna be a good long man
but i just dont know if he’ll ever make it with his control, walked 7 in 3 IP last time out
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Looking at the comments from last yr
Ol Scstrato sure comes out looking like a genius…
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
We'll show you Obama's birth certificate as soon as you show us Sarah Palin's high school diploma...
Keith Law said Smoak, FWIW
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
We'll show you Obama's birth certificate as soon as you show us Sarah Palin's high school diploma...
by Brian Thomas on Aug 28, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are trying to make an ass of yourself, you're off to a good start
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
We'll show you Obama's birth certificate as soon as you show us Sarah Palin's high school diploma...
by Brian Thomas on Aug 28, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
No, Keith Law said it, his remarks glow of prestige and insight
He… knows lots.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Law's statements about the Smoak v. Alvarez topic
have always stemmed from his belief that Alvarez won’t stay at 3B. Once Alvarez loses his positional advantage by having to move to 1B, he definitely falls below Smoak. The difference in position gave Alvarez the advantage, not a great gap in skills or potential. Once Alvarez lost that advantage he fell quite a bit in the prospect ladder.
The red flags on draft day on Alvarez where his high K% and the questions surrounding his ability to play at 3B. So far he has not resolved either of those.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
That's still neglecting both player's defensive value, regardless of position
No matter what anyone says, we won’t really know what their defense is like, at least comparatively, until they reach the majors. Alvarez is always going to strike out, but because of it he generates tons of power that Smoak hasn’t shown. He’s actually lowered his K rate since moving up. It’d be nice if either of them could hit lefties, anyway. Neither of them seem terribly impressive overall at this point, but it’s clear whose potential is more dynamic.
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 28, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
there was also a big question
on his ability to hit left handers
has anyone ever heard of the somerset patriots...
wel i got punched the face by there mascot
"I wake up evry morning, and piss excelence"
-Ricky Bobby
really? thats hilarious
any video footage?
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
which one?
Sparkee, Slider or General Admission?
by choo choo coleman on Aug 31, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Haha
My g/f lives 2 min. from the stadium. I live 5 min. from the Newark Bears stadium so we have a nice rivalry and go to the games when the teams play each other.
You should’ve went Ace Ventura on his ass!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
