Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 27, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
Email
PrintPittsburgh Pirates Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published January 1, 2009. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. I'm not doing new grades or lists until I start working on the 2010 book.
1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A-: Slow start at Lynchburg, but has been on fire since reaching Double-A, hitting .325/.408/.558. Main questions revolve around defense.
2) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Grade B+: Hitting .287/.358/.479 for the Pirates with 15 steals in 17 attempts over 70 games. Looks great.
3) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B+: Hitting .307/.372/.422 between Double-A and Triple-A. Power is still questionable but still just 21 years old.
4) Bryan Morris, RHP, Grade B-: 5.40 ERA with 28/28 K/BB in 63 innings for Lynchburg. Sleeper call that doesn't look so hot now. Strikeout rate very low.
5) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: 13-6, 3.47 with a 110/29 K/BB in 143 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis. Excellent command stands out.
6) Neil Walker, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .256/.304/.464 for Indianapolis. Turns 24 next month, just doesn't look like an impact bat at this point.
7) Jimmy Barthmaier, RHP, Grade C+: Blew out elbow. Tommy John.
8) Evan Meek, RHP, Grade C+: 3.45 ERA with 42/29 K/BB in 47 major league innings. A competent reliever, needs to sharpen his control.
9) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: .270/.376/.384 with 32 steals in 43 attempts for Class A West Virginia. 145 strikeouts in 407 at-bats is scary, but he's got tools and youth.
10) Jim Negrych, 2B, Grade C+: .272/.366/.362 for Double-A Altoona. Controls the zone well, lacks pop.
11) Shelby Ford, 2B, Grade C+: Hit .188/.240/.279 in 86 games for Indianapolis, sent back to Altoona earlier this month and hitting .236/.323.400. Quite disappointing.
12) Matt Hague, 1B-3B, Grade C+: Hitting .291/.353/.402 for Lynchburg. Skilled contact hitter but lack of power a problem at his positions.
13) Ron Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: 3.53 ERA with 72/26 K/BB in 94 innings for Lynchburg, 93 hits. Doing OK.
14) Brian Friday, SS, Grade C: Hitting .260/.361/.389 for Altoona. Controls the zone well. Good defensive reputation but looks like a utility guy unless bat improves.
15) Quinton Miller, RHP, Grade C: 5.16 ERA with 30/21 K/BB in 45 innings for West Virginia. Sleeper/projection pick still asleep.
16) Romulo Sanchez, RHP, Grade C: Now in Yankees system, 4.71 ERA with 63/34 K/BB in 63 innings in Triple-A, 69 hits. Not a lot to get excited about. Still has a cool name.
17) Donald Veal, LHP, Grade C: Rule 5 guy from Cubs, has had problems staying healthy this year.
18) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C: 2.28 ERA with 65/18 K/BB in 75 innings for Altoona, 5.20 ERA with 36/10 K/BB in 55 innings for Indianapolis. Hasn't held up as well in Triple-A but overall this is a successful season considering injury comeback.
19) Dan Moskos, LHP, Grade C: 3.78 ERA with 62/53 K/BB in 131 innings for Altoona, 137 hits. Don't like the low strikeout rate, but 2.06 GO/AO is nice and he still has a chance to be a useful pitcher.
20) Jarek Cunningham, 3B, Grade C: Hasn't played this year.
The 2010 list will look a lot different given the further heavy investments the Pirates made in the draft this year. Among the group listed here, Alvarez performance at Altoona eases doubts about his bat (though his strikeout rate remains high and his BABIP is insane over the last two months). I'm doubtful about his third base future unless his error rate comes way down. . .his .909 fielding percentage isn't going to cut it and questions persist about his range among scouts. MinorLeagueSplits.com has his defense at exactly average overall. Still, overall he looks better than he did two months ago. McCutchen's performance in the majors has been everything the Pirates could have hoped. Tabata's power hasn't developed, but he's still very young.
48 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
the more and more
i see him play, i think the same thing
In my mind, McCutchen is what Milledge should have ended up being.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 27, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
certainly
he has addressed the power issues that many thought he would have. I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t be a consistent 20 HR threat
In his prime years a consistent 30 homers seems a possibility. Certainly moreso than it did last season.
by MrPedriqueIfYoureNasty on Aug 28, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
He looks like Roberto Clemente
I hope he has a long career
I like him a lot...
but I wouldn’t compare him to Clemente. Clemente is an all-time great and I wouldn’t really compare anyone to someone that good until they ARE that good themselves.
Plus
Clemente is Latin, not black.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Clemente sucked until his late 20's
You ever look at his numbers age 20-26 and wonder, how did this guy get good all of a sudden.
Me too
i love that guy. I’ll probably be rooting for that dude the rest of his career, I love watching him play.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
same for me
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Aug 27, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Another one tonight
With about half a season’s AB’s in so far, he’s got 19 doubles and 10 HR’s, much more power than I expected this early, and I’ve been a big McCutchen believer since he was drafted. I expected some 15/30 or 15/40 seasons out of him HR/SB wise, but now I’m starting to wonder how short I’ve sold him in the power department and if we could see a season or two at his peak in the 30/30 or 30/40 range? Either way he’ll be alot of fun to watch for the next decade +.
RIP Nick Adenhart
d'arnaud
He’s looking pretty good. Has to make the AA jump.
As someone who has a rooting interest in the younger d’Arnaud, I like to keep tabs on his brother as well. His value all comes down to his defense — I haven’t heard any scouting reports, but Total Zone is all over the map depending on which level you look at (+12 in the SAL this year, -9 in the NYPL last year). As you say, next year will be a big year for him making the jump to Double-A, but if he can handle it and stick at SS, then the Pirates will have a very nice middle infield prospect on their hands.
How's Negrych's defense?
I ask this because in a computer game I have (baseball mogul 2009) his defense is ridiculously, ridiculously good. Just wanted to know if that was reality
Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.
negrych
I haven’t looked at his defensive numbers lately but his pre-season reputation was for having a mediocre glove.
by John Sickels on Aug 27, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think mediocre is generous.
He’ll have some value as a PH and bench bat, but there’s no way he’ll ever field well enough to play 2B (or even 3B) in the majors.
That's funny
He’s an absolute butcher with the glove in OOTP 10.
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 27, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I hadn't realized what a thin system this was coming into the season.
Guys like Locke, Von Rosenberg, Cain, and even perhaps Lorin + Pribanic should instantly slide into the top 20.
by CapgrasDelusion on Aug 27, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions
It would be pretty profoundly embarrassing for any team's top pick to not enter that team's top 20...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
The even more amazing part...
…is that it’s actually a big step up from the 2008 list.
I’m convinced that if you tore off Ed Creech’s shirt, he’d have a big “THIS MACHINE KILLS FARM SYSTEMS” tattoo on his chest.
Definitely a system that has taken a pretty big step forward
i hope alot of these big investments pan out for them cuz good baseball in Pittsburgh would be nice to see for once.
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
Should Alvarez...
get an A grade this time around? Also, this has to be one of the most improved farm systems. They have added guys like Alderson, Lorin, Sanchez, the late round high scool pitchers, and Brad Lincoln has looked amazing. If they sign Miguel Angel Sano, they will probably have a top 10 farm system.
Certainly not a straight A
An A- is defensible, but questions about his defense at 3B would make me inclined to give him a B+. The bat looks like it’ll play.
His defense...
came in at exactly average. If he plays average defense with the kind of bat that he has shown, he will argaubly have more value than almost any player in the minors. Also, he should be a top ten prospect and pretty much all top ten prospects deserve an A grade.
Keep in mind, that's average relative to the levels he's played at
NOT MLB average. The average defender at those levels is much worse than the average MLB defender.
That’s not to say he can’t have skill growth— players do tend to improve over time. Just clarifying what the statistic indicates.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
A-
His defense keeps him from being higher.
This is a middle of the pack farm system even with Sano. There is one impact prospect, a very good prospect (Tabata), a few good prospects with question marks and a bunch of lottery tickets after that. Neal has brought in depth, but the impact guys just aren’t there.
How many people...
would you put ahead of him on a prospect list. I can’t see him being anything lower than 10 or 11 and all of those ahead of him and maybe a few behind him will likely have A grades. Also, there are NO plans to move him off of third, so a thirdbasemen with thaty kind of power and ability to hit, has to be considered a top 10 prospect.
Just because they currently aren’t planning on moving him doesn’t mean that he’ll be able to play enough defense to stay at third. Teams wait as long as possible before moving someone even when they have no shot at staying there (Pedro’s chances are better than that).
I don’t know where I’d place on a prospect list right now.
I had him pegged
as a breakout candidate for this year until the injury.
by richieabernathy on Aug 28, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Could see him...
breaking out big next year. He has a lot of potential as an average defensive shortstop with a good average and good power for his position. I could see him going 300-20-10 a couple years at short if he were to realize most of his potential.
My top 15 list for this year...
1.Pedro Alvarez 3B A
2. Tim Alderson RHP B+
3. Jose Tabata OF B
4. Brad Lincoln RHP B
5. Tony Sanchez B-
6. Gorkys Hernandez B-
7. Robbie Grossman C+
8. Bryan Morris C+
9. Starling Marte OF C+
10. Zach VonRosenberg C+
11. Chase D’arnaud SS C+
12. Jeff Locke LHP C+
13. Quinton Miller RHP C
14. Brett Lorin RHP C
15. Colton Cain LHP C
I posted this on a Pirates board that I frequent:
This isn’t necessarily where I’d rank them, but this is about what I expect them to be graded by John. It seems that I’m actually higher than you are.
Alvarez A-
Tabata B/B+
Lincoln B
Alderson B-/B
Sanchez B-/B
Von Rosenberg B-
McCutchen B-
d’Arnaud C+/B-
Owens C+/B-
Cain C+ with potential
Locke C+
Grossman C+ with potential (strikeouts will keep him from B-)
Gorkys C+
Marte C+ with potential
Sano C+ with potential (if signed)
Uviedo C+
Moskos C+
Miller C/C+
Walker C/C+
Black C/C+
Lorin C/C+
Morris C
Stevenson C with potential
Pounders C with potential
Dodson C with potential
BA...
said in a chat, Sano would rank second on the list if he signs, and i agree. I would give him a B because of his ridicoulis potential.
Sano
And I find that practice to be ridiculous. These Latin signees are so far away and have minimal game experience. Look at what happened to Ynoa this season. The fact that he made both BA and BP’s top 100 list is rather absurd.
I would have to at least...
put him ahead of Von Rosenberg and maybe even Sanchez(although I like him more than most), so I would give him a B. BA likes potential more than any other site, so them putting someone like Sano that high is not surprising. They will probably have Harper as the number one prospect in baseball when he comes out and he is almost as inexperienced as Sano is.
Disagree
This isn’t just about age. Harper will have played in many showcases and a year of JuCo ball before he is drafted. Sano, like more IFAs, has barely any game experience. He is a complete crapshoot.
I knew I forgot someone...
Rudy Ownes would rank 6th and get a B-. Also, yes I would, because he has slightly above average command with plus control and mound presence. He is also young enough to develop a change-up and correct his delivery(while adding 2-3 mph to his fastball) which would make him a potential front end starter. Right now, I see him as a good bet to be a 4 with a decent shot at a 3, but if he improves in the areas I said, he could do much better.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Minor League Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
