I was wrong....
by bl on Aug 25, 2009 2:28 AM EDT
149 comments
I recall a post similar to this last year or two years ago. Let's be honest, scouts are not always right. Some are better than others and they make a living off of this. For the most part this community is filled with super fans who dream of jobs in baseball. Sorry to burst any bubbles, but I sincerely doubt many of us will ever be paid to evaluate baseball players for a living. We all love to pat ourselves on the back for our successes. This is a chance for us to humble ourselves and admit our shortcomings,. Things I was wrong about-
#1- I thought Trevor Cahill was better prepared for the MLB than Brett Anderson. I also thought he was going to have a better career. Anderson has proven me wrong this year and at this point I expect him to have a better career than Cahill (not at knock on Cahill, I just thought he was better. I see Anderson as a potential #1 and Cahill as a 2/3 at this point.)
#2-I thought Ricky Romero would never be a productive MLB pitcher because of injuries. I am very impressed with him this year, he looks like a future #2 to me.
#3-I thought Dominc Brown and Michael Taylor would be all tools/no baseball skill Philly players who fizzed out in the minors. At this point I really believe in both of them.
#4- I never saw this coming from Mat Latos.
#5-I had a hunch the polish of Alderson would outshine the stuff of Bumgarner.
#6-I thought Brett Jackson would struggle from day one as a professional hitter.
#7-I thought Boras would prevent Strasburg and Matzek from signing (off topic, I know.)
#8-After his horrible start in AA I expected Pedro Alvarez was on his way to being a huge bust.
#9-I did not expect Neftali Feliz to be the best middle reliever in baseball in August 2009.
#10-Where the heck did Andrew Bailey come from?
#11-I expected Andrew McCutheon to struggle initially in the show.
#12-I thought (hoped) Michael Ynoa would be dominating Low A by now. (I am not giving up on him.)
#13-I thought Hosmer would mash no matter where he was.
#14-I thought the Verducci effect would take it's toll on Lincecum. (Quick props-this website has been so right about Timmy, he is an absolute stud.)
#15-I thought lack of strike zone judgement would catchup to Pablo Sandoval.
I am not afraid to admit, I have more than this. Let's hear it, who were you wrong about?
7 recs |
149 comments
Email
Print
Comments
A few of mine
1. I was wrong on Chris Carter. I never thought he would be able to sustain an acceptable average.
2. I was wrong on Andy Marte. I really thought he was the next big thing.
3. I was wrong on Joel Guzman. This kids tools and build led me to believe that he was headed for stardom.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2009 2:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carter
Man oh man, I feel the same thing. I never thought he’d be anywhere near this good of a hitter.
by thudean on Aug 25, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same on Carter
I was really down on his plate discipline and average transitioning well to AA when the community rankings were being done.
by tdot mariner fan on Aug 26, 2009 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i was wrong on edwin jackson…. i thought he was never going to put it all together and become a great pitcher
by matthewmafa on Aug 25, 2009 2:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Is he great?
We’ll see, but Fausto even had one “great” year.
by rglass44 on Aug 25, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
#3
it wont happen in the minors… it’ll happen in the majors
by matthewmafa on Aug 25, 2009 2:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Braun
not sure why i didn’t like him… proved me wrong,
I didn’t think Tulo would be this good.
still waiting on: Corey Smith, Sergio Santos, and Wes Bankston to hit.
in my dreams, Corey Patterson is still a 5-tool prospect with plus power an speed.
by daveh33 on Aug 25, 2009 2:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Still don’t get how he missed.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 27, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he would have gotten more of a chance if he could actually play a defensive position better. As it stands, he had to try to share time at DH and LF which means he constantly is dropped if he slumps at all.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 27, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was also never given a chance at first in the majors
I still think he might have been a pretty solid player if the Royals hadn’t let him stagnate in Triple-A for so long.
by Fanon on Aug 27, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same thing as always
People loved his bat as a catcher – but he wasnt a catcher. When people found out he wasnt a catcher he suddenly turned into a 24 year old 1B without a great bat.
by alskor on Aug 27, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i thought he had enough bat to be an average 1B
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Aug 27, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ben Zobrist
I figured he would struggle to stay in the majors as a reserve infielder.
by bobr on Aug 25, 2009 8:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 25, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i still am shocked
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 26, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did NOT see it
but, I always had a (then) illogical liking of a good fielding shortsop with above average plate discipline. And in a blog i posted one thing to last year then forgot the password, i posted IIRC that if Zobrist could tie his minor league track record of hitting for average and plate discipline with his moderate uptick in power in 2008, he could be a solid major league player. So I come pretty close
Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.
by harendaman365 on Aug 26, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Solid major league player
Is different from historically good middle infielder.
Not sure if you came “pretty close”.
by Fanon on Aug 27, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
closer than anyone else
Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.
by harendaman365 on Aug 27, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I predicted 20-25 homers for him.
That is if he got regular at-bats
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
number 15
got me too. i learnt from that that there are two types of impatient hitters. Guys who swing at everything, and guys that hit anything. Jeff Franceour, Corey Patterson, are category A. Pablo Sandoval, Robinson Cano, and Vlad Guerrero are in category B. Delmon Young was supposed to be Category B, but look more and more like Category A.
Number One also got me, I though Cahill’s sinker was MLB ready and Anderson would be a 2/3 finesse and control type.
I was also wrong on Tulowitzki, I can’t for the life of me remember why.
Oh, and Alex Gordon. Rookie of the Year ’07!!!….
Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.
by harendaman365 on Aug 25, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
bobby crosby '07 mvp
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 26, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Remember that? I remember Gammons predicting that on Baseball Tonight…
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 30, 2009 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sandoval
I think everyone was wrong about him including myself. I remember the prediction topic about him prior to the season, and I don’t think anyone predicted him to do this well.
by DJSlam on Aug 25, 2009 10:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've been wrong on lots, but not that one
I loved him the first time I saw him in San Jose and I actually told a guy in the press box in Norwich last April that he’d be hitting the ball all over the park in SFO before the end of the year. Nice to get that one right.
(It makes up for, among others, killing the Padres for dumping Ben Johnson’s upside for a stiff like Heath Bell; liking Alderson over Bumgarner long-term (though I’m not entirely convinced I’m wrong yet); knowing Braun’s swing would be exposed by big-league pitching; declaring Felix Pie the next coming; expecting Joba to have his arm fall off within 24 months of signing with the Yankees; expecting Michael Main to arrive in the bigs before the waste of a pick the Padres made on Nick Schmidt just before him; and an embarrassingly large collection of others…)
Nice topic; thanks for giving us all the opportunity to fess up!
by realitypolice on Aug 25, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1,
I called him the Vlad Guerrero’s lost son with the way he hit in San Jose. I can admit that I didn’t think he’d be doing anything like this, but still I thought he would be a success.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 25, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember laughing at a SFO fan preseason for thinking Sandoval would hit over .310
and couldn’t believe Bill James’ “lofty” projections. The guy is a wizard. Definitely missed on him.
by JonBBT on Aug 26, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
somewhat off topic
First, John had this topic on the front page a while ago. Two separate topics:
I was wrong: better than I thought: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/7/16/951392/guys-you-were-wrong-about-better
I was wrong: worse than I thought: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/7/17/952659/guys-you-were-wrong-about-worse
Second, I’ll repeat what I posted there. Better than I thought. I was most wrong about Lincecum – who I thought wouldn’t improve his control so fast. Longoria – who I didn’t think had nearly this much power,
Worse than I thought: Antonelli, Marcus Sanders
Third,
But the Verducci Effect is so stupid. It’s always been stupid. I’m pretty sure that Verducci realizes it’s stupid and baseless yet continues to publish about it just so he is guaranteed pageviews every spring. It’s kind of like Dan Shaughenessy and the retarded Curse of the Bambino.
I’m really looking forward to how he’s going to rationalize how laughably wrong the Verducci Effect has been in 2009. I’m guessing he’ll focus on ERA or claim this was the exception that proves the rule.
Check the list: (2008 FIP) – 2009 FIP
1. Jon Lester (3.64) – 3.06. No time missed
2. Cole Hamels (3.72) – 4.17. No time missed
3. Chad Billingsley (3.35) – 3.50. No time missed
4. Tim Lincecum (2.62) – 2.23. No time missed
5. Clayton Kershaw (4.08) – 3.29. No time missed
6. Dana Eveland (4.09). Now in the minors. But hasn’t been hurt)
7. Mike Pelfrey (3.96) – 3.97. No time missed.
8. John Danks (3.44) – 4.13. No time missed
9. Jair Jurrjens (3.59) – 3.65. No time missed
10. Jon Niese – hamstring injury.
So of the 10 listed, one guy pulled a hammy. Hamels and Danks have been worse than last year. No arm/elbow/back/shoulder injuries for any of thepitchers, and in aggregate, they’ve improved their FIP (thanks to Lester, Lincecum, and Kershaw).
Last year was a stretch when he “increased workload” as the cause for injuries like Gallardo getting stepped on, Carmona stepping on a base wrong, and Gaudin’s drunken fall on a curb injuring his back.
by Galt on Aug 25, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well to be fair
didnt hamels have early season shoulder problems?? He was topping out at 89 mph pretty early this year (and i coulda sworn he made a DL trip-could be wrong though)…but he seems pretty healthy to me now, watching him hit 95 mph a few times against the Mets in his last start…but i thought that besides injury, the Verducci effect had something to do with less production from those players…While most of those 10 players listed are still doing very well, Hamels certainly hasnt been great this year, Bills hasnt been the stud i thought he was going to be this year, Pelfrey has been terrible (that isnt a shock though, i thought he was over-rated last year) and Danks hasnt been as good this year as he was last…just my 2 cents
by miraclemets on Aug 25, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mean reversion
When you pick 10 people out of a population that did exceptionally well, of course people will decline.
The reason the pitchers pitched so many more innings is that they were pitching significantly better. So it stands to reason that if they outperform one year, a regression is more likely in subsequent years. You can’t claim that’s some mythical “effect” when it’s just statistics 101.
by Galt on Aug 25, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pelfrey
26 ks in his last 31 innings. Looked that up when I saw his FIP. have been kinda out of it on him since the mets season collapsed. Was a little surprised his FIP matches last year.
by wobatus on Aug 25, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pelfrey
He’s been slightly inconsistent but has improved as the season has gone along. Mostly, he’s been a victim of a AAA defense behind him. He did miss one start earlier in the season, in April I think, with a sore arm but there’s been no follow up to it.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 25, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was terrible
for a bit, but a sub-4.00 fip and he has improved over his last 5 starts or so. The strikeout rate is up.
by wobatus on Aug 25, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
never fails
I try to toss pelfrey a bone and he shits the bed like last night. For my fellow Mets fans sake, i will admit to being a blind homer and will never evaluate him again. :)
by wobatus on Aug 27, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
paul wilson
Ben grieve, Beltre.
David Clyde. :)
by wobatus on Aug 25, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
James Simmons
WTF?
44 walks in 114 innings? Getting hit around is one thing, but 3.5 walks per 9 innings?
WTF?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 25, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you
I thought his nice 2nd half last year would be a springboard to the majors this season
by jibs on Aug 26, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've kind of irrationally never been a fan
But I still think he has the ability to be a good 4/5, maybe even a 3. He’s young enough, at least. Last 10 starts ain’t terrible for a guy in AAA who hasn’t turned 23 yet (60.2 IP, 42/17 K/BB, 60 H, 4.15 ERA). In fact, they look almost a little like Blanton’s age-23 Sacramento season (1.7 bb/9 to 2.5, 7.4 k/9 to 6.2, 4.19 ERA to 4.15….)
Any reason why he hasn’t pitched since August 5th, though?
by walk off bunt on Aug 27, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wieters
I really thought he would hit crazy in the majors…I know he still will be great sometime soon, but against better judgment I was really surprised to see him not make that massive immediate impact based on his age and Triple-A performance, among other reasons. Who’s with me?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Aug 25, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldnt have been shocked if he raked from day one...
but this doesnt surprise or concern me in the least, either.
by alskor on Aug 25, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was probably the only person that had Wieters ranked as the 3rd best catching prospect
Montero and Santana and both clearly superior in my eyes. Guys like Flowers, Castro and Norris are probably in the teir below him.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How could I forget Posey?
Wieters didn’t even make my top 3. I knew I was missing someone.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Austin Kearns & Anthony Reyes
I thought these two guys were gonna be fantasy studs. Oh well.
Held onto them in my keeper league longer than I should have, haha.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 25, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yup
i was also wrong on those guys. i thought reyes would be pretty darn good…better than wainwright. i didnt think wainwright would be nearly as good as he is. i was a huge fan of dan haren though, so at least i am right some of the time :)
i drafted austin kearns a lot, but fortunately i never had to expend any high draft picks for him.
i thought edwin jackson was going to be awesome. then he stunk for a while. now he is awesome. i am not sure if that counts as being right or wrong.
by dmb60614 on Aug 25, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
guilty with Kearns
its a shame… i saw him play with the Reds back in 2005… saw him take BP with Dunn and Griffey… the crack of the bat sounded different with Kearns. he really hit the ball hard.
by daveh33 on Aug 25, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ultimately
what went wrong? injuries? out of shape? he literally looked like a future star.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 25, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shoulder injury wasn't it?
Something about a collision at home plate I think, I’m sure I’ve seen it talked about here before.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 25, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct,
the shoulder injury he sustained while with the Reds. Pretty much changed his bat speed, changed his swing as a result, resulted in less contact-ability and less power. It’s unfortunate. I thought the guy was the next star OF.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 25, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ray Kings fat ass sat on him at home and he's never been the same.
If he never hurt his shoulder, I have little doubt he would have been a star.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Aug 25, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 26, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes
ugly, ugly mechanics. I think St Louis was very unhappy with his mechanics but were unable to get him to change them.
by alskor on Aug 25, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya
Read a lot of stuff by Chris O’Leary on Reyes’ mechanics. The dreaded inverted W.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 25, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why can't we just say "M"???
I mean, when you turn an M over, you get a W, right?
by realitypolice on Aug 25, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ive made this joke a few times myself...
but lets look at this… is " W " upside down really the same a " M "? Its not. Look at the outer bars of the W… they go outwards while a “M” goes straight up and down.
by alskor on Aug 25, 2009 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not even just that
He definitely has an inverted W scap loading problem, but in general his mechanics are just a mess. He was a great bet to get injured (not because of the inverted W! b/c he doesnt repeat his delivery well!) and he’s had arm problems every year of his MLB career.
I also never really bought his stuff, command or anything about him as top notch. He was one of those guys who was okay at everything but not great at anything and had good MiLB numbers that inflated his prospect status. Reyes never really impressed me…
by alskor on Aug 25, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He looked like basically a 5th starter the first time I saw him
which was in the 06 playoffs. Fastball barely touching 90, no real breaking ball to speak of, average changeup which he kept tipping off to the other team by changing his preparation for the pitch.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 25, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2005
he looked good when i watched him in 2005. his august debut against the brewers was great…mid 90s fastball (always above 90). it was a four seamer with a little bit of movement. he threw it high a lot, and complemented it with a good change up. it fooled a lot of people. he left the fastball up and it occasionally got hit hard, but he seemed to have solid control of it and often got hitters to chase the too high fastball. problem is, that guy disappeared. he was a different pitcher in 2006 than he was in his 2005 debut, and the longer the season went on the more messed up he seemed to get. i dont mean that the league caught up to him…his stuff was different. his velocity was off. he could no longer throw the fastball for strikes. he started leading with the change up and hitters knew it was coming. his slider got slurvy. maybe i just saw him on some exceptionally good days in 2005 and early 2006. some say dave duncan forced a two seam fastball on him and messed him. maybe he was bothered by injuries the whole time. i dont really know what happened to him.
by dmb60614 on Aug 26, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wrong...
Homer Bailey (2x)
Richard Stahl (swing and a miss)
Jay Gibbons (I remember telling folks his rookie year that he would eventually be a 40/40 guy). Maybe for his career…
by ADLC on Aug 25, 2009 9:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wily Mo Pena
Maybe we can open an entire separate thread for all of us who screwed that one up to offer mea culpas?
by realitypolice on Aug 26, 2009 1:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was a Wily Mo believer too!
Perhaps in a better situation. I think if Boston would have gave him a chance he might have been able to flourish. Big Papi taking him under his wing sounded like it would lead to success.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dustin Pedroia
Figured he’d be a lot closer to, say, Stubby Clapp than he would be to AL MVP.
by Flynn Blake on Aug 26, 2009 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he is.
That MVP he won is a joke. He’s a very mediocre player away from Fenway.
by JonBBT on Aug 26, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh....
Wow. No. He’s the best 2B in the game not named Utley and perhaps Zobrist (for this year at least).
And the MVP could have gone to a number of people, but Pedroia had as good a case as any.
by Mike I on Aug 26, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd take Aaron Hill over him too
and Zobrist for sure.
by daveh33 on Aug 27, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill's having a great year
But I think you’d be picking the vastly inferior player.
Aaron Hill’s best year: 3.5 WAR (or take this year – 3.2 WAR)
Pedroia’s worst year: 3.8 WAR
And WAR adjusts for park effects.
by Mike I on Aug 27, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
war is stupid
how do you really know hills D is what it is… you actually trust that bullshit?
by matthewmafa on Aug 27, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
It’s a damn good metric (especially when you get a few years of data out of it).
What else are we supposed to use for defense? Dewan’s +/- is nice, but it ain’t free and it’s nearly the same thing as UZR. Range factor? Anecdotal evidence? Gimme a break.
by Mike I on Aug 27, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Convincing argument
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 27, 2009 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zobrist
Let’s see him produce like this for one more year before calling him better than the reigning MVP. I understand arguments for Utley or Kinsler to some degree, but I get to see a lot of Pedroia’s games and trust me when I tell you he is great defensively and he is a very good offensive player…not sure he’ll ever hit more than 15 homers a year again but he is solid up and down. Hill has had a breakout season, but I put him in the Zobrist category…let’s see more before getting too excited…early returns on those two are positive though.
by dlanod115 on Aug 27, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Utely is hands down the best second basemen in baseball it's not even close.
Utely has been second to only the Baseball God that is Albert Pujols over the last three years in all of baseball. Last year, Pedroia was a 6.6 WAR player while Utely has had 7.5, 6.8, 8.0, 8.1, and 6.8 WAR since 2005 and he’kk definitely reach at least 7 befor this year is out.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 27, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And also, from a purely fielding stand point
Pedroia has been great, since 2007 UZR total is 25.2. Last year alone Utely’s UZR was 20.2. I’m a Met fan, and I look at the last few years and ask, “How does crappy Jimmy Rollins and overrated Ryan Howard have MVP trophies and this guy doesn’t have one?”
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 27, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBVIOUSLY
Utley will go down as the greatest offensive second baseman in the history of baseball.
by richieabernathy on Aug 28, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if there is sarcasm there or not
But Utley cannot compare to Rogers Hornsby
by jibs on Aug 28, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joe Morgan, Charlie Gehringer
also have a few more great years on him yet too. Frankie Frisch, jackie Robinson, Robbie Alomar, all have more .400+ wOBA years than Utley thus far, albeit Utley has a better career line thus far than Roberto Alomar, at least (I would have to check them all). Utley could end up better. jackie Robinson was pretty damned good. Career .412 wOBA.
by wobatus on Aug 29, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he may have won MVP
but Zobrist’s having a better year this year than Pedo did in 08.
by daveh33 on Aug 27, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "maybe he is" Stubby Clapp comment was sarcasm.
And I’ll also mention that his home/away splits weren’t nearly as dramatic as I thought for last season. For his career there’s a decent gap, but last year he was pretty good everywhere.
I’m definitely not saying he’s Stubby Clapp, but I think he’s generally overrated for the grittiness factor.
He was good last year, no doubt.
by JonBBT on Aug 27, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Id call Kinsler and Pedroia pretty much a draw
but maybe thats just me
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
by blalock84 on Aug 29, 2009 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My biggest one was Carlos Gomez
Fell too much in love with the raw athleticism and big frame, ignored the on-field results a bit too much. It was a lesson.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 26, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His numbers really weren't bad though
Until he was rushed from Triple-A to the majors. I still think he could have been a decent regular if the Twins had sent him to Rochester to start ’08.
by Fanon on Aug 27, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his defense in center is still great though
Friend:why do you love ripping on Jeff Francoeur?
Me: Because hes an idiot, who posseses huge physical tools but will not, nay, cannot, harness those tools into any sembelance of usable baseball skill and refuses to make any effort to do so. Hes like a tragic greek figure. doomed by his own stupidity and 80 raw power.
by harendaman365 on Aug 27, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was one of his biggest supporters, thought he was the next Beltran
by Bravesin07 on Aug 28, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still could be....
His bat has been much much better in second half of ‘09
tons of balls put in play, pretty unlikely depite what BABip may suggest IMO.
I think this was a make or break year for him and he’s definately been a HUGE Make year for him
I havent’ missed a Twins game in 8 or 9 years.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How has he been any better this year?
He’s putting up almost exactly the same offensive numbers as last year. And he’s really not doing any better in the second half this year: .256/.312/.360.
He’s still infinitely better than Delmon Young because of his defense. And one encouraging sign for Gomez is that his plate discipline has improved ever so slightly as of late.
by Mike I on Aug 29, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
russell branyon!!!!!
Oh wait… he finally broke out this year….never mind.
by kershaw_equals_stud on Aug 26, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was right on Russ.
He kills righties but struggles against lefties, especially lefties with really good breaking balls. Branyan against a great curve from a lefty = no chance. Branyan against a righty with an average fastball = a game where he hits the ball hard.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Lind
is really making me eat my words.
by slurve on Aug 26, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
he really looked like another run of the mill corner OFer to me… he’s a bit more than that.
by alskor on Aug 26, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loved Lind more than Jay Bruce when I saw both last year
Thought Bruce had trouble with the breaking pitch down and in and you know what, he hasn’t solved that problem yet, and I got ripped by dougdirt about that game last year I saw Bruce go 0-6 with 3 K’s.
by Bravesin07 on Aug 28, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys I missed on ...
- Edwin Encarnacion. I’d have bet $500 he’d be among the 10 best 3Bs for a a long time.
- Hank Blalock
- Sean Burroughs
- Nick Johnson. He’s not what I thought he’d be.
- Austin Kearns. I’m glad I have company here!
- Alfonso Soriano. He’s pretty good. I thought he’d be incredibly awesome.
- D’Angelo Jimenez. I guess that car accident messed him up.
- Corey Patterson. I ignored the K/BB problem. Duh.
- Grady Sizemore. I traded him early (2006) because I thought he was overrated. Oops.
"Most overrated prospect in the minors." -- Bravesin07 on Madison Bumgarner
by criminal type on Aug 26, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ditto
with Encarnacion…i thought he was gonna be a big time hitter for the last 3 years, and he hasnt done anything
by miraclemets on Aug 26, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sean Burroughs!
Whatever happened to him? Last I remember he signed a minor league deal with the Mariners a year or two ago, but never played for them after hurting himself in a fishing mishap of some kind….. or something like that.
by JonBBT on Aug 26, 2009 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is Daaron
With his I was wrong post about Vin Mazzaro lol. Or at least a “I shouldnt have been so freaking crazy about him”
by jsmall404 on Aug 26, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought Lastings Milledge was going to hit like
.450/.600/.850 for twenty years in the majors. I’m not ready to admit defeat yet, but it doesn’t look promising.
"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."
by Evan_S on Aug 26, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought Buster Posey was a one year wonder who took advantage of FSU's home park
Nope. He’s actually good.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 27, 2009 10:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And
I ranked the top picks of 2006 as:
1. Brad Lincoln
2. Luke Hochevar
3. Andrew Miller
4. Tim Lincecum
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 27, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think a lot of people
were wrong about his offensive potential…i remember people saying prior to the draft that his biggest attribute would be what he brings to the table on defense
by miraclemets on Aug 27, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trevor Cahill
I played against Trevor a lot in high school…we graduated the same year (2006) he went to Vista and I played for Torrey Pines…my senior year he faced us twice and we shelled him…additionally I had played against him in various tournaments over the years.
He was good but I sure as hell never thought he was first or second round good…like I said we shelled him twice his senior year and when I watched him against other teams he never stood out to me…I also wasnt alone in this thinking many in the San Diego high school baseball community were confused. Some people said he threw 91-94, yet no one ever saw him actually go above 88, mostly sitting 84-87 with a solid sinker, but nothing unhittable. He was a nice kid with a good head on his shoulders but he wasnt a stud…Some actually thought that he wasnt even the best pitcher on his high school team, McCullough Dean who eventually went to Fullerton many thought was the better pitcher.
Anyway when Baseball America put him on the front page of their website and scouts started raving about him and then Oakland drafted him in the second round there was a collective “huh” from the San Diego high school baseball community…but he sure as hell showed us…shooting through the minors, pitching on the olympic team, making the opening day roster by 2009…incredible
Congrats Trevor…we were wrong and Im happy to see you have made it
by Kgdadude on Aug 27, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Cahill
If I remember correctly, Cahill was a project when drafted. He was primarily a SS until some injuries caused the team to need him to pitch. The stuff was there but he was raw. He was drafted more on potential than results (if that makes sense, I know all players are drafted based on potential. Not trying to take anything against you and your team for beating a first rounder.)
That has to be cool to play against a player who is now in the MLB. The closest I have come to playing against a player anyone has heard of is Anthony Molina (dude who got beaned by Ben Christiansen from the on deck circle.) I coached 2009 Texas fourth rounder, Andrew Doyle, in Little League and coached against Cody Adams (Milwaukee 2nd rounder in 2008) and Ryne White (2008 Arizona draftee-4th round I think.)
by bl on Sep 4, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
John Drennen
This is the opposite of Cahill.,,
He graduated a year before me and was absolutely incredible…5 tools, great guy, had succeeded at the highest levels. The two best players in all of San Diego county that I ever saw playing in high school during the years I played from a players perspective…were Drennen and Mike Leake, and the amount of San Diego area players drafted between 04-07 (Guys that graduated a year after me but I played with and against them when they were juniors), Drennen and Leake were the two best.
I believe he is still stuck in Double-A…we all thought best case scenario was Grady Sizemore and worst case scenario was Mark Kotsay (in his prime when he was a Marlin) which is a pretty good worst case scenario…instead John is in the low to mid minors 4 years after he was drafted.
Im not saying he has no chance as I think hes 22 but I just thought by now hed be at least getting some major league at-bats and on the Indians top prospect lists rather than where he is now
by Kgdadude on Aug 27, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
PED's
played a major role IMO on why certain guys flailed out at times
Like Sean Burroughs (He stopped using the juice)
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 28, 2009 3:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Entirely possible with Burroughs
The odd thing is, if you look at his numbers he totally looks like America’s case of Age Gate.
by Fanon on Aug 28, 2009 7:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burroughs peaked as 12/13 year old
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Aug 28, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daryle Ward
I saw Prince Fielder potential in him…can’t remember why.
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Aug 28, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I realize Ward was a "prospect" before Fielder was in high school. I'm just sayin'
Oh, and I have a shoe box full of PSA 9 and PSA 10 Daryle Ward rookie cards if you need anything for your kids’ bicycle spokes…
Giants: World Series Champions...in 2011.
by Giants_Junkie on Aug 28, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burrooughs
I had the (mis?) fortune of watching Burroughs come up from day one until his time with Padres ended and I will believe to the day I die the Padres screwed him up. The fans, coaches, and media kept bitching about how he needed his power stroke, when in reality that just wasn’t his strength. In his first full season at age 22 he put up a .286/.352/.402 line and at 23 he put up a .298/.348/.365. line. Obviously the slugging percentages werent great but the batting average and OBP were definitely fine for a guy in his first two seasons in the majors and so young. But between the Padres revolving door at batting coach and the strange decision made by the Padres that a third baseman consistently getting on base at a .350 clip with an above average glove just wasn’t gonna cut it, they completely reworked his swing trying to get him to power it out. What resulted was a lot of swinging under balls and fly balls….
The perception is that he stunk from day 1…and its just not true…if the Padres couldve lived with what they had, which once again was a guy who got on base 35 percent of the time and had a good glove, he wouldve been fine and probably couldve developed some power by the time he got to age 27 or 28, maybe even 26…instead the Padres screwed with him and killed his ability to drive the ball, ruining his career
by Kgdadude on Aug 28, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's still basically a .700 OPS
Which would make him one of the worst third basemen in the game.
by Fanon on Aug 28, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People need to get off of OPS
OPS is a great stat to measure middle of the order hitters…it is merely a bonus for top of the order hitters or guys in the 8 and 9 slot…if they gave a decent average, good OBP and are solid in the field it is completely acceptible to have a below average SLG, thus probably a below AVG OPS
If a guy has a .350 OBP and hits around .300, he is still at minumum an extremely useful player…the Major League Average OBP is consistently around .320, so he was a full 30 points higher than major league average OBP…add in good glove, and if the Padres had just let him be and continued to emphasize him driving the ball into the.
gaps and less about getting under it and lifting it, he would have been a solid 3B who couldve had a damn nice career.
And the NL average OPS was roughly .760 over the time he was playing…so a .754 at age 22 and .714 at age 23, which is a relatively normal 2nd season regression (roughly 40 points), its not impossible for him to have jumped it back up around league average OPS and then continued to improve…
But once again, this being said as both a stathead and former player…It merely depends on the player and position in the batting order …a 1, 2, 8, or 9 hitter with a good AVG and OBP and a good glove, it is absolutely OK to take a hit on SLG, thus OPS
by Kgdadude on Aug 29, 2009 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We all know that OPS is a blunt instrument, but, you know,
you don’t need a surgical scalpel to cut a loaf of French bread.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 29, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we do
Might have to amputate, in fact. I keep seeing people projecting guys like Chris Carter – then establishing their value relative to other 1B by their projected OPS. Fail.
by alskor on Aug 29, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marcus Sanders
I drafted M Sanders over Hunter Pence.
I drafted E Campbell over R Braun.
Really…Really bad picks!!!!!!!!!!!
by Dawgs47 on Aug 29, 2009 7:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jared Fernandez!
Figured he’d at least be a serviceable SP in the majors… or at least in the US. Stupid knuckleball mancrush.
"That is like saying my ‘upside’ is Brad Pitts face, with Einstein’s brain, and Ron Jeremy’s unit. It is nice to dream, but that ceiling isn’t going to happen." (King Billy Royal)
by drjayphd on Aug 29, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jeremy Hermida
Couldn’t possibly have been more in love with any baseball player. Thought he was a sure thing, no doubt about it talent
oops…
-1 and only member of the Jed Lowrie fan club!
by Jgaztambide on Aug 30, 2009 11:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't give up yet
Hes only 25 and in a little over 3 full seasons hes averaged .267/.346/.428 with 18 HR and 67 RBI…while he’s not a world beater hes a solid starting outfielder on a competitive team (I know the perception but in his time the Marlins have a winning record) with decent power…The health hasn’t been great but hes still playing 130 games per year. Im just saying I wouldnt put him in same group as Corey Patterson, D’Angelo Jimenez, and Austin Kearns…definitely not a bust by any means and I dont think it s a stretch that he’ll continue to get better over the next couple of years
by Kgdadude on Aug 31, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Daric
I thought Daric Barton would hit. Doh!
by BobbyMac on Aug 31, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Only 23
While he has definitely sucked thus far and as an Angels fan Ill take any chance to rip on Oakland that I can…I just have a hard time giving up on somebody that turned 23 this year…there are literally dozens, if hundreds of cases of the past decade alone of guys who looked lost around 23/24, figured it out, and became productive…I dont know if he’ll turn it around but I wouldnt waive the white flag yet, simply because of his age
by Kgdadude on Aug 31, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Two recent cases
I feel bad making a statement that many players have done it without providing examples…
While they don’t have much in common with Barton in terms of profile, two current Texas Rangers have done it…Nelso Cruz was atrociuos at ages 25 and 26, went back down to the minors and made some adjustments, and became a stud…Marlon Byrd is similar in that with the exception of 2003 he was one of the worst hitters in baseball at ages 26, 27 and 28…then he figured it out at age 29 and has had 3 solid years…
Yes I know Texas is a hitters heaven and Jaramillo is brilliant…the point in general is thats two examples of guys who were highly touted, stunk up the joint, and figured it out a little later than some wouldve liked…but nonetheless became key components of a competitive team.
So yeah those are just two examples of what could happen with Barton, so we shouldnt give up quite yer
by Kgdadude on Aug 31, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a professional scout ...
… nor to I pretend to be one on the internet, but it seems to me that this one:
“#8-After his horrible start in AA I expected Pedro Alvarez was on his way to being a huge bust.”
is a HUGE example of getting it wrong simply by trying to be the first to say so.
Like you said in the intro, even pros get this stuff wrong now and then. But that disclaimer should serve as a reminder to us amateurs why no prospect – particularly an uber-pick like him – should have a call made on him after such a short amount of time.
by Frayed Knot on Sep 1, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
You are correct, judging a player based on a small sample size is just dumb.
I guess a better way of putting it would be I thought Pedro Alvarez’s rough AA start would expose him as the overrated player I thought he was. In retrospect, he is a damn good prospect. I thought he had bust written all over him before his AA performance, instead of proving me right, he has proven me wrong.
by bl on Sep 4, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro
Well if you already had a partially formed opinion on him coming in then it tends to take even less to solidify it. Just seems to me that one would have to watch/follow a whole lot of amateur ball to even have a pre-formed judgement and even then I’d be wary of cementing one. Maybe you do, I certainly don’t.
No big deal, we get ’em wrong all the time and the pros miss their share as well.
That was just the only one on the list that jumped out at me as being off primarily because it was so premature; a more preventable error than most if you will.
by Frayed Knot on Sep 4, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I thought about Pedro
I thought he was way overrated and never going to be a star, much less a, everyday player. As the season has progressed I’ve realized I was wrong for quickly marking him as a bust.
by johnnycomelately9 on Sep 5, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hay all of you people who have been saying Homer Bailey sucks
for the past 3 years…
start fessin up.
He’s looked fantastic his last 2/3 starts.
he’s getting a bunch of swinging K’s, and he’s keeping his 94-95, touching 97 velocity late into games and with excellent movement.
by daveh33 on Sep 3, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Howard
I couldn’t have been more wrong about Mr. Howard. Dead wrong, George Romero undead zombie wrong. Thought the high minor league K-rate precluded MLB success.
Suuhhwing and a miss!! For me.
by Mekonsrock on Sep 3, 2009 11:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Underachievers, followed by overacheivers, where have you gone Fernando Seguinol?
He did have a hell of a season (as did everyone) with that Toledo team (last year or two years ago?), but that’s a guy I thought would be much, much better.
Alex Gordon – I think a lot of people would agree. How could you have questioned his bat? No signs of the lack of production in MLB. Maybe should’ve started in AAA his rookie year?
Niko Vasquez – Yikes, what a terrible 2009. There’s still time as he’s 19 or 20, but wow, those 2009 stats are awful.
On the other side of things, Jeremy Guthrie looked like a 2 1/2 A player every time I saw him pitch. Would dominate with Akron, looked awful with Buffalo. And his stuff was average, though I saw him opposite Gavin Floyd at least twice.
Ben Zobrist+1. Made 2 E’s in one game in the series that I saw Durham. He looked liked he was overemphasizing plate discipline when I saw him. That approach works possibly through AA, but never amounts to anything after that. (Ask Brian Jeroloman, Scott Campbell for example)
Ricky Romero +1
by murda2626 on Sep 6, 2009 9:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
