Don't understand this
by ScottAZ on Aug 24, 2009 11:39 AM EDT
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I don't understand the Rockies handling of Eric Young Jr. First they announce he's untouchable before the trade dead line, turning down numerous trade scenerios involving him, now they announce he's moving to CF when they already have their "future", Dex Fowler firmly entrenched and starting to flourish in the majors in CF.
If they didn't see him long term at 2b why not trade him at the deadline when his value was high? Now what is he, a backup CFer and 4th OFer? A utility sub type maybe? Dumb move IMO, because some teams were offering legit established players (like Freddy Sanchez) straight up for him.
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When did they ever say he was untouchable?
Since when is a nearly 25 year old prospect whose only “plus” skill is speed “untouchable”?
I think that was a little rude...
Eric Young Jr. might not be untouchable but the Rockies definitely made an effort to keep him. In fact, they refused deals with at least the Pirates and Nationals, teams that were adamant about including him in any deal.
As for his only “plus” skill being speed, this isn’t Juan Pierre that we’re talking about here. Eric Young Jr. looks to be the real deal when it comes to the ultimate leadoff hitter. First, he has “plus-plus” speed. And second, he not only hits for average, but he has a very good eye (his K:BB is extremely good and is borderline “plus”) and an eye poppingly high OBP. Also, he is an up the middle type player, so you don’t “lose” any positional value by having him play any of the four corner spots.
If you’re don’t like him, then you must really dislike Jacoby Ellsbury’s skill set (and Ellsbury still needs to learn to take a walk more often)
Ellsbury has potential...
to hit 15-20 homeruns a year and makes good contact. Eric Young will never be more than an average major leaguer. He is bascically Juan Pierre.
Ellsbury also offers better defense
A plus defender up the middle is better than simply an up the middle player.
Nonetheless, it does seem a little weird to mess around with a player they seems to value, though, and who’s shown such progress.
wowwwwwwwwwwwwwww
can people continue to overrate the already OVerrated Jacoby ellsbury?@?!?!?
RE: Ellsbury also offers better defense
Not this year he isn’t. As much as I’d like to throw a -14.1 UZR/150 (currently) out the window as an outlier, especially weighed against his + defense in the corners, he’s getting really thumped for range.
That’s alarming.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 25, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Its a known Fenway effect with UZR
Balls off the monster and the back walls are counted as in play and catchable. Its made for some pretty wacky results in recent years, like Coco had +22.4 UZR/150 and -15.4 the next… LF is even worse, obviously.
I really cant explain it at all, though. A lot of good defenders have shown up poorly in UZR at Fenway or had wacky results. Im usually the first guy to remind people they cant judge defense with their eyes… but let me tell you – I watch a lot of Ellsbury and the kid is a Gazelle, gets good jumps (some dispute this), runs down everything and never makes a mistake. If you polled scouts, I guarantee they would rate him an excellent defender.
Last year he was +6.9 UZR/150… there is just no way his defense should be showing up like this in 09. It doesnt pass the smell test at all. Its perplexing. I wish I could find some home/road UZR splits…. anybody know where to get that…?
I should also add
Ive heard Theo on the radio discuss Ellsbury’s defense and he implied the team’s internal metrics have him as an excellent defender.
For those who don’t know, UZR cuts the field into slices radiating from home plate… it is sort of simple and doesnt adjust for the Green Monster or other funny walls… so a ball off the Green Monster is counted as a catchable ball that wasnt caught, hurting that player’s UZR rating, even though the ball could be 20 feet above his head…
Ellsbury is going to be 26 in two weeks
He only has 6 HRs this year and 18 HRs in his career – 1,147 total at-bats.
Exactly how does he have the potential to hit 20 HRs a year? Shouldn’t he get to 10 HRs a year before we start the 20 HR conversation given his age and large MLB sample size?
20 HRs in his MLB career would ALSO be something to wait for before we starting talking about 20 HR potential.
+1
Ellsbury does not have power. Deal with it people.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 24, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
But he isn't Juan Pierre
He walks twice as much and that OBP is extremely valuable. We can all argue over Moneyball’s validity but sabermetric studies have shown that OBP is around 1.8 times more important than slugging percentage when it comes to scoring runs
Juan Pierre
Had a .380 OBP in the minors.and only .350 in the majors. Eric Young has a .385 OBP in the minors. What will it be in the majors?
Pierre was also in his 2nd full season, and coming off the best season of his career (.327/.378/.415) when he was Eric Young’s age.
Juan Pierre was actually a valuable player in his prime
Average to above-average offensive production (including the baserunning) plus good defense in CF. If a guy is for sure going to be as good as Juan Pierre was, you have a pretty good prospect on your hands.
+1
People seem to forget how good Pierre was earlier this decade. That Marlin combination of Pierre and Castillo at the top of their order was great to watch.
Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.
+2
For the first five years of his career Pierre had a .310 ave and a .365 OB% to go along with his great baserunning. He was certainly a huge weapon on offense, and would be even bigger in today’s post steroid era.
Relax
I asked a direct question. The original poster said he was untouchable, I asked when they said that. He obliged with a link. Why get all pissy?
If Eric Young, Jr becomes an elite defensive centerfielder like Ellsbury, then good for the Rockies. If all you’re talking about is fantasy categories, I wasn’t. I was talking about actual baseball value.
His .390 OBP is not going to translate to the majors when accompanied by a .120 Isolated slugging (inflated by the PCL and Cal League).
I just don’t see why Colorado would make him “untouchable”
AHEM..............
Taken directly from MLB.com
“They told teams that speedy Colorado Springs second baseman Eric Young Jr. was untouchable, and stuck to that. "
That's what I was looking for?
Why is a direct question taken as a slight?
The original poster said he was named as untouchable. And I asked when. You all need to take a deep breath.
That said, I don’t see why you’d make a speedster untouchable. Unless they view Young as an above average defensive CF, I don’t see what the lure is.
He may put up great fantasy numbers, but in terms of actual baseball value, it’s not that valuable.
re
I didn’t take it as a slight, I didn’t say anything other than post the quote and link.
I don’t see why the Rockies have him as untouchable either, especially now they moved him to CF when they already have Fowler. If they didn’t see him as a option at 2b they should have traded him while his value is high. This time next year he could be viewed as nothing other than a speedy 4th OFer, then they won’t get anything for him at all
To be fair
the “ahem….” was implying that you were taking some personal offense to me asking for a link.
But in all honestly, I actually mean to respond to the first commenter who acted like I swore at you.
Possibility...
Maybe the Rockies never thought he was untouchable, but believed by saying he was, they could get a little more for him. Wouldn’t be the first time a GM or team overstated how great they thought a player was, only to increase their perceived value and then trade them.
Adam Dunn: Proof that even sabermetrics doesn't have it right.
what more did they want for him then?
Pirates offered Freddy Sanchez straight up for him, other teams were offering solid starting pitchers. I don’t see what more they thought they could get for him if that was really their thinking, they really overplayed their hand
Sanchez
ain’t worth squat in terms of prospects, especially when you already have big Clint Barmes on the case.
And also, the definition of “solid” would be nice.
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 26, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay folks, just because Eric Young Jr was moved to CF, it doesn't mean the end of the world is coming
He’s still a second base prospect, one who improved his defense a ton (pretty much his only question), is probably the best baserunner in the minors now, and his BB/K ratio is great. he shows the ability to get extra bases, and has flashed some pop. With his skillset, EY2 will probably translate perfectly into Coors Field because of it’s spacious confines, meaning that he can drop a lot of base hits, and potentially turn them into doubles. Also, power is the last tool that shows up, and you can never discount a young player from improving, which is exactly what he is doing.
Also, EY2’s move to CF was a result of Chris Frey’s injury, meaning that the Sky Sox had no CF, and since he could play there, he was moved. The Rockies and most major league organizations are pretty high on him, and there’s no reason why he can’t be Jacoby Ellsbury at second base, though winning a job over Clint Barmes at second may be hard and cause him to be a utility infielder until he fully develops into the majors or earns his job.
Interesting info
Thanks for sharing. Moving him to CF now makes a little more sense. I had also read that EY’s D at 2B has improved dramatically this year, and that was a huge reason why the Rox basically made him untouchable at the deadline.
I am not sure sure though that winning a job over Barmes will be that difficult. I know he has flashed some great pop this year, but his Avg and OBP have suffered dramatically. Hitting .240 with a 5% BB rate just won’t cut it over the long term. In the end I really think he is more of a utility guy.
Also...
Center fielders are more valuable than second basemen. This wont hurt Eric Young, Jr’s value.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 25, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Tango's positional value adjustments
Have them as equal
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/complete_war_2008/
Pardon my French...
But I’m just on a fucking roll today. That’s the second time I’ve screwed up positional adjustment values today and the third time I’ve screwed up proper sabermetrics.
sigh…
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 25, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Fowler
Is a god-awful CF.. maybe that had something to do with it….
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 24, 2009 10:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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