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Prospect Rankings: Statistics

(I originally posted this over at TwinkieTown, but I thought you guys would be full of insight and advice as well.)

When it comes to ranking prospects, I think actual on-field results top all and deserve most recognition/value.

Here is an attempt to plug actual statistical results into a "Master Prospect Ranking" formula that I will use in a few months to rank the top prospects in the Twins' system.

(Remember - this is just the statistical portion. I will add other components as time goes on.) After the jump I'll explain my thoughts...

Star-divide

The first thing I've done is find the league average of five major statistic categories in each of the five Twins' minor leagues (IL, Eastern, Florida St., Midwest, GCL) and assign penalties/rewards for being below/above average in each of the categories. There is no penalty for playing at the same level as the average hitter in the league. (Though there are flat values for each league, which I'll explain later.)

Let's take for example the International League, home of our Rochester Red Wings.

Batters

Batting Avg: .262        if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

OBP: .328                     if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

SLG: .396                     if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

BB%: 8.78%                if >= 5 points above = +10
                                       if >= 5 points below = -10

K%: 19.67%                 if >= 5 points above = -10
                                       if >= 5 points below = +10

 

Pitchers

ERA: 3.93               if >= 1 point above = -10
                                      if >= 1 point below = +10


WHIP: 1.354               if >= .33 point above = -10
                                     if >= .33 point below = +10


BB/9: 3.2                      if >= 1 point above = -10
                                      if >= 1 point below = +10


K/9: 6.9                        if >= 2 points above = +10
                                      if >= 2 points below = -10


K/BB: 2.17                  if >= 2 points above = +10
                                     if >= 2 points below = -10

 

(NOTE - These averages will obvoiusly change and I'll base the values off the new value whenever I rank the prospects.)

From this formula (you obviously use one or the other) you will get one solid number. This presents another problem: it is obviously easier to be an average hitter/pitcher in a hitter/pitcher-friendly league, as the case may be. So here's the ranking of the five leagues in order of their strengths, and bonuses that will be awarded in certain cases:

 

Hitter-Friendly Leagues (based on OPS)

  1. International League (AAA)
  2. Eastern League (AA)
  3. Midwest League (A)
  4. Florida St. League (A+)
  5. GCL (R)
If average/below average in 3/5 categories: 
  1. - 5 points
  2. - 3 points
  3. 0
  4. + 3 points
  5. + 5 points
If above average in 3/5 categories:
  1. 0
  2. +2
  3. +5
  4. +8
  5. +10
Pitcher-Friendly Leagues (based on FIP)
  1. GCL (R)
  2. Florida St. (A+)
    2. (tie) Midwest (A)
    4. Eastern (AA)
    5. International (AAA)
If average/below average in 3/5 categories:
  1. -5
  2. -3
  3. -3
  4. +3
  5. +5
If above average in 3/5 categories:
  1. 0
  2. +2
  3. +2
  4. +8
  5. +10

What do you guys think? How accurately would this rank statistical performance, and what improvements could be made?

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments

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"How accurately would this rank statistical performance, and what improvements could be made? "

Well, zero if were going to be honest.

If you’re really interested in stuff like this, I suggest reading some sabermetrics material. You’ll really enjoy it given the effort you put here.

To put it really quickly, none of these categories are equal in real life, they aren’t the only categories to look at, it doesn’t account for age, it only accounts for one season and the scoring system overall is completely random with no justification.

The basic rule for making anything like this is; WHATEVER you do, it needs to be for a justified scientific/proven reason.

by Deech on Aug 23, 2009 11:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

smooth system always better

Although I certainly agree with the prior post I would add that any system in which you get 10 points if you are just over a cut off and don’t get them if you are just under it is by its very nature suspect. You always have all sorts of anomalies of guys who are just under and just over lines, much better to have a smooth system that moves steadily up or down.

by Dalman on Aug 24, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It also seems to make a .406 SLG just as valuable as a .606 SLG, for example.

by parish on Aug 24, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comparing to league averages

…is one thing I like.

I do think many statistical evaluators of prospects miss this.

by parish on Aug 24, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This was an easy read

As soon as I got to “When it comes to ranking prospects, I think actual on-field results top all and deserve most recognition/value” I stopped.

by realitypolice on Aug 24, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

he must be like Goldstein

and given up on Justin Upton after his .756 OPS in low A-ball.

by daveh33 on Aug 25, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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