ROY and CY thoughts and predictions
by Matt Rox on Aug 22, 2009 6:17 PM EDT
83 comments
My American League Pick-Elvis Andrus: Not a HR threat, but a great base runner. 23 SB with only 2 CS. Also note the 7 triples in 337 AB.
AL Runner up: Brad Bergesen
My National League Pick-Dexter Fowler: There are really not many solid rookies to win the award in the NL, but Fowler stands out because he's played almost every game this season, and he's a .274 hitter with slightly above average plate discipline and a solid base stealer
NL Runner up: TIE (Colby Rasmus and Kenshin Kawakami)
Overall, not a real great crop of rookies this year. People may argue that Rasmus should be the NL pick, but he's not hitting well other than decent power. AKA his batting average is in the .250's
Now, some CY thoughts
NL: Tim Lincecum-The KKKKK King
Runner Up: Matt Cain (whoo! Both Giants!)
AL: Zach Greinke-Well, I'm a fan of the CG, and he racks the complete games up!
Thoughts
0 recs |
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Chris Coghlan (FLA)
Excellent job atop the Marlins lineup. Takes walks and sees a lot of pitches. Underrated.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Coghlan a lot,
but he hasn’t done much to separate himself as the rookie standout. I think he’ll be a good regular, but Hanson has been more valuable this year as the NL ROY.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 22, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NL ROY
Tommy Hanson has to be in the running for NL rookie of the year.
by atl14yearsschaffer on Aug 22, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re:
J.A. Happ as well.
I’m a homer to point it out, but oh well. And there’s an obvious (thought important) point to remember here: this isn’t “who’s the best prospect going forward” but “who’s had the best year.” Happ and Wells are a lot alike: neither is ridiculously young, and neither is more than a 4th starter in the end, but both have had fantastic years.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 22, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't even who had the best year...
it’s who has a good W-L record and plays for a good team. So the winner will likely be Happ.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's sad...
…but true. ROY voting is a bit more immune from the old “who’s team is better” syndrome than MVP voting, but it’s certainly still a factor.
But that doesn’t mean that Happ, if he keeps up his current pace and winds up winning the ROY vote, won’t be deserving. His peripherals haven’t been fantastic, but they’ve been markedly better in the past month and a half, and he hasn’t gone less than 6 innings since June 14.
All in all, it’s such a close race that I’m reserving judgment until the end of the season. Any of Hanson, Fowler, Wells or Happ is capable of winning in my mind.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 22, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's also no reason to apologize for outperforming peripherals
Like you said, this isn’t the “Who’s the best prospect going forward” award, it’s the “Who’s having the best rookie season” award. If the award were decided today, I’d take Happ’s 135 innings of 167 ERA+ over Tommy Hanson’s 86 innings of 135 ERA+ or Wells’ 120 innings of 155 ERA+. Fowler’s 448 plate appearances of 106 OPS+ with good outfield defense and baserunning would merit serious consideration from me too, but my real point here is that just because a player isn’t likely to repeat a performance doesn’t devalue the actual performance. It happened, it has value.
J.A. Happ should, at the very worst, be the top pitching candidate for NL ROY. More innings than any other contender at a higher quality. (And yeah, there’s all sorts of time for that to change, but my point is that the ROY award shouldn’t be considered as the “Best Prospect” award. Give every team a choice between Happ and Hanson, and they’ll take Hanson, but give every team a choice between their respective performances this season, and they’ll take Happ’s, even if it is fluky or lucky.)
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 24, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of homers...
Hanson has an impressive record for a team in the playoff picture, and I think the anticipation of his debut gives him at least a bit of an edge to compete with Happ.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 24, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im a bit bias but Bailey has been lights out all year.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
by Syphon on Aug 22, 2009 7:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
nt
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 22, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again speaking of Homers...
If you’d told me “Bailey” would win the ROY in March, I’d assume you meant a different one.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 24, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my picks
NL ROY – Randy Wells
AL ROY – Brett Anderson (will all due respect to Andrus, Bergeson and Bailey)
NL CY – Tim Lincecum
AL CY – Justin Verlander (with apologies to Greinke)
by jibs on Aug 22, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
your AL picks have the best Stuff out of all their resepctive competitors… but arent the winners
by matthewmafa on Aug 22, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't see Anderson winning
Although I don’t think so myself there certainly is an argument to be made that Anderson is the AL rookie with the best future ahead of him. But the definition of ROY is essentially the same as the player of the year award and similar to the mvp award except that only rookies are considered. And on that definition I don’t see the argument for Anderson. Niemann and Romero each have 11 wins and a sub 4.00 era, that will totally trump Anderson’s 7 wins and 4.50 era (I know these aren’t exactly advanced metrics but we are predicting here, and those are still the stats people look at).
by Dalman on Aug 24, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't predicting who will win the award
I listed who I would choose
by jibs on Aug 24, 2009 7:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June 1
putting up peripherals matched only by the most elite pitchers.
K/9 over 9.
BB/9 under 3
GB% almost 50%
Those are numbers matched only by Lincecum, Lester, and Felix over the course of ’09.
It’s a shame that the fact he was in the majors all year will cost him the award, while Hanson will probably win it on the NL because he didn’t.
by Galt on Aug 24, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tommy Hanson
Let’s see — he’s about to go 9-2 with a sub-3 ERA.
I wonder if the writers are gonna vote for him.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Aug 22, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Piggybacking on what I said above...
Hanson is certainly the best prospect out of all the NL rookies this year, but Wells and Happ have been every bit as good in total. Happ is on the verge of 10-2 with a sub-3 ERA, so if writers are looking at the “shiny numbers,” then it’ll be a tough decision between those three.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 22, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
andrew mccutchen should be in the talks for NL ROY
but Tommy Hanson deserves it more. I’d go Hanson-McCutchen-Wells.
NL CY: Lincecum-Carpenter-Cain-Wainwright
AL ROY:Bailey-Andrus-B. Anderson
AL CY:Beckett-Verlander-Grienke
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Aug 22, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
scratch the AL CY
supposed to be Grienke-Verlander-Beckett
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Aug 22, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yea...
Thats’s the best on here so far except, Gordon Beckham deserves the AL ROY.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I like that… especially if the sox can pull ahead of the tigers, which should go a long way in the voters’ eyes… beckham as wOBA’d a respectable .359… even though his defense isn’t quite up to the challenge of 3B at the moment, it’s passable… and if you assume his bat will continue to improve, there’s no reason he couldn’t be a 5 or 6 win player in the future
by gorilla_baller on Aug 23, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ROYCY
AL ROY: Gordon Beckham
NY CY: Haren or Lincecum
by son.of.sourman on Aug 22, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Haren
Enduring his typical 2nd half decline.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If anybody not named Lincecum has a shot at the NL CY, I think it’s got to be Carpenter.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 24, 2009 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which they don’t, by the way.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 24, 2009 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wainright is going crazy right now
hes getting better and better and i think he will take away some votes from carpenter
same with cain and lincecum but in the end
licecum will win for sure
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NL ROY
I think that is wide open. Randy Wells doesn’t have the name of a Tommy Hanson, so that may hurt him. I think Wells actually deserves it more as of right now, but if I had to guess, I’d guess Hanson right now, with Wells 2nd and maybe a Colby Rasmus third.
As for the AL, I’d probably guess Andrus winning it right now.
by toonsterwu on Aug 22, 2009 9:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How do you justify Wells
over J.A. Happ?
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 24, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McCutchen...
has had a better season than Fowler so far. Better average and better power with less speed and all of their other numbers are similair. Happ will probably win the award because he has a good W-L record and he plays for the Phillies.
For the AL, Gordon Beckham has done the best job in my opinion and should probably win the award. I think Porcello has done a great job, and should get some points for his awesome take down of Kevin Youkilis.
NL Cy Young: Lincecum
AL Cy Young: Greinke, although it will probably be Beckett or Verlander because they are in playoff races.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree with all these
I expect by the end of the year Beckham will have outdistanced the others for the award. Both your Cy Young winners appear to be on the money and McCutch has a chance to sneak it from Happ.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 23, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right answers
NL ROY – McCutchen
AL ROY – Bekcham
NL CY – Lincecum
AL CY – Greinke
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rick Porcello belongs in the AL ROY conversation. He probably has to win four games in September to do it, but he is definately in the running. And I like the Brad Bergeson consideration.
by StickRat on Aug 22, 2009 10:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also no mention of Nyjer Morgan is surprising.
Especially with mentions of Elvis Andrus on the AL side.
.340 wOBA with the best OF defense in the majors… certainly worth a look.
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
this just is the first year he hasn't sucked.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's not that far removed from being a rookie..
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
alright
you want him to win NL MVP then?
by matthewmafa on Aug 22, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm not saying I'm right, just that "the first year he hasn't sucked" is a little harsh.
He made a brief appearance in 2007 and had a bad less-than-half season in 2008. It’s not exactly like he was given a great shot before, and he was still developing.
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
funniest post of the thread
The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.
by jrose643 on Aug 23, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanson
Hanson is probably the best NL rookie but he has had 2 months less time in the majors than Happ. I would go Happ, Hanson, Kawakami, McCutchen, Wells. I think Kawakami should/will get a boost because he has out dueled Hamels, Halladay, Kershaw, and Santana.
by cajunrevenge on Aug 22, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Braves fan?
Kawakami has done pretty well, but no way does he deserve to be ranked over guys like McCutchen, Wells, Rasmus, and Fowler.
Also, why no mention of Garret Jones? He has been better than any rookie since he was called up and he continues to hit like a maniac.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, except for the guys who've been better than him
If we’re going to pretend Garrett Jones should be in the conversation – and there is absolutely no way in the universe I’m willing to pretend he should be in the conversation – we should probably acknowledge that Kyle Blanks is probably going to finish the year with better stats across the board than Jones.
Hell, if Everth Cabrera continues to do for the next five weeks what he’s done for the last five weeks, he’s going to finish with an OPS above 800 and 25 steals.
by realitypolice on Aug 25, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he didnt OUT deul kershaw
they both went 7 innings with 0 runs
by matthewmafa on Aug 22, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a shame Bailey probably won't win it
He really does deserve it with his numbers. Obviously his lack of exposure coupled with his role of a closer doesn’t help. But his numbers are really lights out. Andrus has been alright, but I don’t think worthy of ROY. Another guy who people forget about it Porcello. I know he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he has put up good solid numbers for a winning team. As for Cy Young, I think King felix should get some recognition
by Mets2k9 on Aug 22, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Greinke wins hands down unless he implodes, but Felix is probably up there for #2.
It’s not ridiculous to put him as #2, I mean.
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say hands down
People like to see a cy young winner lead a starting rotation. I guess that works against my Felix argument haha. I really could see Beckett or Verlander winning it, if for no other reason than their team’s records.
by Mets2k9 on Aug 22, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and as for NL ROY
I really can’t see a conceivable scenario in which Hanson doesn’t win it, short of him being shut down for september. His numbers have really been stellar, and he has lived up to the hype, which has to count for something.
by Mets2k9 on Aug 22, 2009 11:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
2.14 K/BB isn't really that stellar... He was over 5 in AAA this season.
That’s far from “living up to the hype”
McCutchen has been much more impressive with a .358 wOBA along with above-average CF defense.
by lailaihei on Aug 22, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
be that as it may
he also has a 7.17 k/9, and if you look at his splits, he has been getting better with each start. Also, even if his k/bb is 2.14, he holds a whip of 1.28, so clearly it’s not like he’s walking guys left and right. And of course I wouldn’t really expect a guy to put up a k/bb that is the same as he did at AAA. There will obviously be some drop off. I would say that Hanson has lived up to the hype. Without McCutchen’s 3 homer game, his stats would look far less inflated. Also, Hanson has stepped up in greater situations. It’s not like mccutchen is playing with much pressure on his shoulders. That being said, McCutchen is #2
by Mets2k9 on Aug 22, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garret Jones...
will likely have 20 plus homeruns and double digit steals to go along with a 300 avg. Almost exactly like what Ryan howard did his rookie year. The only problem is Jones plays for Pittsburgh and Howard played for Philly. i bet if either McCutchen or jones played for a team like Philly or the Cubs, they would win hands down.
by joegonzo on Aug 22, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
Although I think that players should be valued for consistency, and Jones kinda exploded and has gone limp… sorry for that imagery
by Mets2k9 on Aug 23, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gone limp?
He had a respectable .867 OPS in Aug (.509 SLG) and so far in Sept, he’s over 1.000 OPS.
by ej6687 on Sep 11, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"a conceivable scenario"?
Were the race to end now, I’d be fine with Hanson winning it, but let’s not use categorical language here. I for one wouldn’t complain if any of Wells, Happ, McCutchen or Fowler won over Hanson — all of which are “conceivable scenarios.”
by PhillyFriar on Aug 23, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Carpenter
Don’t want to sound like a homer, but Carp has been the best pitcher in the National League this season when healthy.
Carpenter:
21 starts
14-3 record (tied for league lead in wins)
2.16 ERA (1st in ML)
0.96 WHIP (2nd in ML, closing in on Haren at 0.93)
111 K
23 BB
145 2/3 IP
117 H
7 HR
.223 opponents average
4.83 K/BB ratio
Just something to ponder. He missed a month due to a muscle strain in his side, so the innings will probably end up around 165-170, but I don’t think that that should held against him.
by CoolCat23 on Aug 23, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think we will win Cy young
he will still end up top 2 in wins with probably the best ERA
by matthewmafa on Aug 23, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair or not...
…the innings will certainly be held against him. Sabathia won over Beckett in 2007 in large part because he pitched a boatload more innings. Not that Carpenter’s performance isn’t worthy — it’s just the way it works in reality.
by PhillyFriar on Aug 23, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
wins aren’t really an important stat anymore (or really, ever). I still think Lincy wins it hands down. In part because he entered the year as the favorite, and has only put up numbers better than last year’s. That’s gotta count for something.
by Mets2k9 on Aug 23, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not entirely true
A better way to put it would be to say that wins shouldn’t matter, because pitchers have almost no control over them at all. But, more often than not, they do matter heavily into the writers’ equation when voting.
Here’s an example from this decade:
Pitcher 1: 3.15 ERA, 34 GS, 4 CG, 3 SHO, 228.2 Inn, 202 H, 87 R (80 ER), 42 BB, 214 K, 1.067 WHIP
Pitcher 2: 3.51 ERA, 33 GS, 0 CG, 0 SHO, 220.1 Inn, 205 H, 94 R (86 ER), 72 BB, 213 K, 1.257 WHIP
Take a guess which pitcher won the award.
Pitcher 1 went 17-11 and came in 5th in the voting. Pitcher 2 went 20-3 and won the Cy Young.
For those of you who are wondering, that’s 2001 Mike Mussina vs. Roger Clemens, who were both on the Yankees at the time.
by ajake57 on Aug 23, 2009 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well what about last year
brandon webb had 23 wins and lost to lincecum who only had 19
by matthewmafa on Aug 23, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying it's the most important part of the equation
But it definitely accounts for more than it should. That season has always stuck out in my mind because Clemens was clearly not even the best pitcher in that rotation that year, and yet he won the award because his record was a lot prettier. So was the extra 1.5 runs a game the Yankees scored for him that year.
Ideally, the writers’ would just throw wins and losses right out the window, but do any of us really expect that to happen any time soon?
by ajake57 on Aug 25, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats what i get for
not reading the post to the end
by smoooooth on Aug 24, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Hanson can drag the Braves into the postseason...
He deserves it.
If that doesn’t happen, which is the more likely scenario, I think there’s about 4-5 different guys you can make a pretty legitimate case for right now.
If the Braves hadn’t Super-Two proofed THK, I don’t think there would be much question.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
by timmy3 on Aug 23, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hanson has pitched well, but he can’t be mentioned in the same breath as lincecum… i know it’s not the end of discussion, but tiny tim is WARing in at 7.2 wins which is more than two wins greater than the next closest NL pitcher (Vazquez)
plus hanson doesn’t strike out enough guys to ignore the walks
let’s assume he threw the whole season… are you suggesting he’ll out-k lincecum? have a lower WHIP than haren or carpenter? or out WAR any of that bunch? (actually maybe he could catch carpenter because of his injury issues)
by gorilla_baller on Aug 23, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
helllooooo!!!!!
last time i checked, lincecum haren or carpenter cant win the rookie of Rookie of the year award.
by matthewmafa on Aug 23, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he started a new line and i wasn’t thinking and thought he was referring to CYA
by gorilla_baller on Aug 23, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This one is tough
NLROY: JA Happ – ERA and WHIP are better than Hanson and he’s helping a contending team, hard to discount that, imo
NLCY: Chris Carpenter (though if the Giants can make the playoffs, then that might be enough for Lincecum to take it, even if he doesn’t have the same amount of wins as Carpenter.
ALROY: Gordon Beckham has been pretty steady and if he can keep his average around .300 while putting up double digit hr’s then that might be enough. I’d have Bailey in the mix too.
ALCY: Wide open field. Greinke/Beckett/Verlander/Halladay with CC making up ground fast. This one’s too close to call right now, imo.
by MightyMoose on Aug 24, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts
As of right now:
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum – He’s struggling a little right now though and if it continues Chris Carpenter will win it. Carpenter is the best pitcher in the game but the innings will be held against him.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke – So hard to really predict this one. Hernandez and Halladay could easily step up and win it in the next month.
NL ROY: JA Happ – Not terribly close…well Hanson is kinda close but Happ is 10-2 with a 2.59 ERA. That’s remarkable AND better than Hanson despite Hanson having remarkable numbers himself.
AL ROY: Jeff Niemann? Ricky Romero? No clue.
by UncleBuck44 on Aug 24, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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