Future Blue Jays "Ace"?

by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 5:38 PM EDT

The likelihood of Roy Halladay remaining in a Blue Jays uniform long-term remains slim despite failed efforts by JP Ricciardi to trade him last month. Going forward, I am wondering who will be anchoring the Jays staff. Dustin McGowan's progress from his surgeries has been extremely slow, and I have serious doubts if he will ever be the same again. Shaun Marcum appears to have recovered from TJ surgery, but will not return to the Jays this season. Hopefully he can regain his pre-surgery stuff and step right into the rotation in 2010. Jesse Litsch also had TJ surgery, but I only see him as a back-end type starter. Brett Cecil has had his ups and downs, but with better consistency, I think he can be a valuable asset to the rotation next season. In my opinion, he's got a pretty solid arsenal of pitches.

Let's focus our attention on another two rookie pitchers this season who have been very impressive for the Blue Jays. Marc Rzepczynski was a relatively unknown kid heading into this season, but has performed exceptionally well in the minors this year with strong groundball & strikeout rates. He has carried this success to the MLB level through a small sample of 9 starts. For the past couple of seasons, Ricky Romero was seen as a ‘bust' and over-draft. However, Romero won a starting job in spring training and has pitched well at the MLB level ever since.

Question: Who do you believe will be the "Ace" for the Blue Jays with Doc gone, Rzep or Romero?

***By "Ace", I mean the best arm on the Jays staff, ie the go-to guy like Doc has been for so long. I don't mean "Ace" like Sabathia, Santana, Lincecum, etc. Please understand the distinction I am trying to make. Thanks!

Rzepczynski	Stats	Romero
3.65	ERA	3.95
1.28	WHIP	1.40
4.08	FIP	4.51
8.03	K/9	6.97
4.20	BB/9	3.59
1.91	K/BB	1.94
0.91	HR/9	1.15
13.2	HR/FB %	14.7
20.9	LD %	18.9
51.8	GB %	51.4
27.3	FB %	29.8
1.89	GB/FB	1.72

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Comments

My money would be on Romero...

…simply because he’s the one with a potential plus-plus pitch.

by James F on Aug 22, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's too early to eliminate Cecil from the discussion.

He’s the youngest of the three, and this should really have been his consolidation year after shooting through three levels, Derek Holland style, last year. Like the other two, he’s a southpaw who induces a bunch of grounders, but he’s got a better mix of pitches than Rzepczynski (who is basically a fastball/slider guy at this point) and has a superior minor league track record to Romero.

Were I a betting man, I’d take the odds on Cecil being the best of these three 5 years from now. But all three are really solid looking young hurlers, and if Ricciardi can do the smart thing and deal Halladay for some infield talent, the Jays could be looking pretty solid in about 2 years time.

by PhillyFriar on Aug 22, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions

good points

As a Jays fan, I am definitely optimistic that we can put together an above average rotation for the future.

Unfortunately, like you mentioned, now we just gotta address C, 1B, SS, 3B, haha.

Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay

by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Scott Richmond

by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 22, 2009 6:27 PM EDT reply actions

Flyballs & HRs concern me

Especially in that division.

by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

What is it about Richmond that you like?

by McClutch on Aug 22, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

hes a strikeout machine

by matthewmafa on Aug 22, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

He's really good at pitching

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 23, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Of those two

I’m leaning Romero right now. That said, my bet would still be with one of the M and M boys. Still not sure I’m on the Marc Rzep train yet.

by toonsterwu on Aug 22, 2009 9:32 PM EDT reply actions

Weird

The Jays now have some young arms, but no money to go out and get the bats to support them.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 22, 2009 10:29 PM EDT reply actions

The way I see it

I think Cecil might be the only one in the group that has the potential to be a real frontline starter, but Rzepczynski, Romero, Marcum and even Brad Mills could all be solid major league starters, anywhere from #2-to-#5 guys. Litsch is probably in that group as well. Purcey really seems to have fallen apart (hurt?) but his stuff is good enough to at worst be a solid LHRP.

So I’d say when Halladay leaves, Cecil probably takes over as the best pitcher and Travis Snider takes over as the best player/face of the franchise.

by jayjay on Aug 22, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions

Aaron Hill

I love Snider but Aaron Hill is arguably the best secondbaseman in the AL. He will be the face of this franchise for years, especially when you consider his amazing contract.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 23, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Aaron Hill

That’s a loaded statement though, lots of things are “arguable”. He’s also “arguably” the worst 2b in the AL east (OPS wise he’s 4/5 but OPS overstates slg and his OBP is bad, by most other measures he’s 5th in the AL east amongst 2b – i..e. RC/27 and wOBA). I’m not saying he IS the worst, but it’s certainly as “arguable” as him being the best in the AL.

by jayjay on Aug 23, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a bit of a stretch

but I get your point

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 24, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions

you would rather have robinson cano or dustin pedroia over aaron hill??

by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, pretty much everyone would

All other things remaining fairly stable, his HR/FB has jumped from 2.6 – 3.6 – 8.6 – 2.4 to 16.7%. Fielding wise he has been showing up neutral. The biggest issue, as was stated above, is that he doesnt walk much. So even with the unsustainable HR explosion his wOBA is .355 to Pedroia’s .361 (with plus defense bordering on plus plus – UZR last two years of 10.5 and 11.5 to Hill’s 0.7 and 0.0). Brian Roberts’ wOBA is .369 though his defense has looked poor this year – compared to pretty average regularly. Cano = .362 w/poor defense. Ben Zobrist has a crazy good wOBA of .409 with great defense this year and SSS before.

AL EAST 2B:

So, by 2009 WOBA:
Zobrist: .409
Roberts: .369
Cano .362
Pedroa: .361
Hill: .355

2009 UZR/150
Zobrist: 25.3 (SSS, but looks great)
Pedroia: 11.5 (consistent with past results)
Hill: 0.2 (consistent with past results)
Cano: -5.3 (consistent with past results)
Roberts: -6.4 (drop off?)

2009 Value
Zobrist: $28.1
Pedroia: $19.3
Roberts: $14.4
Hill: $14.3
Cano: $12.8

So, yes, every one in their right mind would take Pedroia over Hill. Cano shoots himself in the foot with his bad glove (even though the dope has all the tools to be an excellent fielder), but you could certainly make the case for him considering Hill is having a crazy career year where a tremendous amount of his value is tied up in lucky HR totals. I am open to the argument that Hill’s HR stroke is a legitimate step forward rather than a fluke, but given his track record and HR/FB jump independent of any other changes in approach I find it exceedingly unlikely he will continue this next season.

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If you are talking purely fantasy baseball, in a typical 5X5 league Hill has still provided less value than Roberts, and Pedroia and Cano are right on his heels. Make it OBP instead of AVG and Pedroia passes him.

http://baseballmonster.com/PlayerRankings.aspx

by alskor on Aug 24, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions