Jesus Montero to miss the rest of the year.
by cubsfan1 on Aug 2, 2009 5:07 PM EDT
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PrintYankees prospect Jesus Montero will miss the rest of the year with a fractured middle finger on his left hand.
We've argued that the Yankees should have started developing Montero as a first baseman/designated hitter already. Fortunately, this isn't a major injury, but it did come while he was catching and it shows the dangers of leaving him behind the plate when it's doubtful that he'll ever be a major league-quality catcher. He should be ready to play in the Arizona Fall League if the Yankees want him to. Aug. 2 - 5:01 pm et
Source: New York Post
Any thoughts from the peanut galary on a position move?
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With Teixeira at 1B for awhile
Where would Montero play if not at catcher? Too early to stick at DH IMO. Can he play LF? Althought if the Yanks sign Holliday, it would eliminate that option. Is Montero really THAT bad behind the plate right now? There are pretty awful catchers in the MLB.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
His bat is seriously special
They don’t need to project a specific position for Montero; worst case, he’ll DH and play First occasionally. Long-term, how about RF? Unless he’s a complete snail; I hear his arm is above-average.
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a lot of that could be footwork
I don’t care how strong your arm is, if you have bad footwork behind the plate, you’re not going to be able to really limit the running game.
Yes, its a combination - footwork is bad and arm is bad
"[Montero] improved slightly in 2008, but] as one scout put it, "that means he went from embarrassing to just plain bad behind the plate." He’s big and sluggish, has problems blocking the ball, his arm is below average, and he has little carry on his throws."
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8536
His CS%
Improved a lot upon being promoted to AA. If I remember correctly it was a little over 30%, not great, but certainly adequate. His CS% was lower in A-ball, but maybe part of that could be attributed to less experienced pitchers not holding runners well. I have never heard that his arm was “terrible”.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
Guys are running wild on him
His CS% wasnt just bad in A+ – it was atrocious. 13%. And its not just percentage wise, its a ton of guys run on him.
He allowed 56 stolen bases in 26 games in a ball this year! Then at AA he’s allowed 30 SBs in 33 games. He’s awful.
so
you’ll just completely throw the AA # out the window? FWIW it’s basically the same % of CS as Matt Weiters in AA in basically exactly the same sample size.
it’s not exactly a huge secret that the lower minors are better suited for stolen bases, the combination of a lot of young fast guys + still developing pitchers and catchers end to result in that. the FSL so far this season have pulled off nearly 400 more succesful steals than the Eastern League at a better clip (and 100+ more than the AL and 300 more attempst despite only having 12 teams) . Montero’s most likely below average but the horrfic results in A ball seem to be significantly amplified by the nature of the league itself.
Scouting reports are nice, but it wouldn’t have been the first time or the last time that they’re dead wrong about any particular guy. plenty of “scouts” thought Dustin Pedroia wasn’t a major leaguer…. in 2007…
how about
a. that he had a large jump in cs% going up a level
b. he’s cs% is above the EL’s average
c. he’s allowed more SB probably because the book on him was to run at will.
d.if he keeps up that sort of cs% the SB / G ratio will most likely go down.
I’d certainly agree that he’s not very good and it’s still something to look out for going foward. but isn’t the entire point of the minor league to “develop” players? your looking for present improvements and not past flaws?
My only point is
A. he’s something something that suggest improvement
B.past scouting reports are not the gospel on a player’s abosalute future ability.
You dont turn “big and sluggish with a subpar arm” at 19 yo into a serviceable catcher. Step back and take another look.
Oh
I guess no team ever makes a mistake then. Edwin Encarnacion for Scott Rolen was apparently genius.
Your argument is BS
That’s what. Are you implying no team ever makes a mistake in player development decisions? Your argument is basically that he MUST be good enough to play catcher b/c they keep playing him there. That’s circular logic. If this was true, no one would ever be able to criticize any decision a team ever makes.
Besides, there is evidence that even the Yankees don’t believe he’s good enough in the end (KG has said so) and there are TONS of professionals who don’t think he is good enough or will be good enough. KG said he hasnt talked to anyone who is paid professionally for their opinion who thinks Montero can stick at catcher.
pedroia?
“Plenty of scouts” thought Dustin Pedroia, former 2nd round pick who destroyed the lower minors, wasn’t a major leaguer after “only” putting up an .810 OPS in AAA?
well
when your small in stature and hit .187/.278/.273 through your first 170 ish PA of your career. some people will doubt you.
It was at least the wide perception that he wouldn’t do quiet as well in the majors as his minor league stats suggested due to physical limitations. turned out he did even better. something the scouts got wrong.
silliness
So his height wasn’t a factor when he killed the ball all the way through 2000+ college / minor leagues as a prospect but it suddenly was in 180 major league ABs?
“It was at least the wide perception that he wouldn’t do quiet as well in the majors as his minor league stats suggested due to physical limitations. turned out he did even better.”
Dustin Pedroia career minor league OPS: .846
Dustin Pedroia career major league OPS: .820
In other words, sure he’s been good . . .but if somebody predicted that Pedroia would be a less productive player as a major leaguer than he was as a minor leaguer, they would actually be correct.
Truth
It was at least the wide perception that he wouldn’t do quiet as well in the majors as his minor league stats suggested due to physical limitations. turned out he did even better. something the scouts got wrong.
This is basically what happened. Somehow, the SOSH crowd and your more extreme saberists have decided this meant “Pedroia will never amount to anything”. The consensus was and continued to be (until his MVP award) that Pedroia simply wouldn’t live up to his numbers in college/milb due to his lacking tools.
The popular opinion was never that Pedroia wouldn’t be able to hack it in the Show, just that it was very unlikely he’d actually be a 320 hitter.
A large part of it was his debut sucked
He was terrible in April of the next year too. Really terrible… bu the was hitting the ball hard, just right at guys. Fans turned on him immediately, even Jerry Remy was knocking him left and right. Even Tito admitted he had his doubts, even though the player ops guys kept telling him the kid could really hit. Obviously, his stature played a huge role in most fans not giving him the benefit of the doubt. I had to not listen to talk radio for a month b/c of it.
He was a second round pick
It wasnt like no one knew who he was! He was one of the best players in the PAC 10. Most teams had him pretty high on their draft board. If the Sox didnt take him there its not like he was falling out of the draft.
i guess
Piazza wasn’t the best fielder, but he stayed behind the plate. i guees time will tell
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Not really true
Piazza was a poor thrower, but all other aspects of his defensive game were quite strong. People get too caught up in the caught stealing. He called a great game and blocked the plate very well, footwork was his problem (which is why he couldn’t play first worth a lick).
True
but I’m not trying to critize Piazza, he is one of my favorite players of alll time. To think he was the last pick of the amatuer draft and will be a hall of famer
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
For sure
I just think people are too quick to bring up Piazza when saying that an offense first, defensively challenged catcher can always cut it, as Piazza, while no gold glover, was really good at a lot of the things that matter to being a catcher. Caught stealing rates are easy to compare, so people like to look to those, but play a relatively small role in a catcher’s defense. In Montero’s case, it sounds like he’s bad at all the other stuff as well as throwing, which makes him an unlikely candidate for a catching job.
Not directing this at you, just trying to stay on topic.
he was all right
He did do those things well enough, but he was such a liability to give up so many extra bases . . .
It probably works out to something like fringe-average. Basically, he had a glove that said, “this guy’s future basically depends entirely on how well he hits,” and it just so happened that Piazza hit better than just about anybody who ever caught a game.
He's been fantastic this season
And the scouting says his arm is strong. Perhaps…a…young…player…could…develop?
They have francisco cervelli
so if they were to develop him at DH that would be good. Can he play an outfield position?
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Looks like the offense will play
And the defense is stellar. I think he will.
that's fine
for a backup, but I guarantee you the Yankees will be looking for a hell of a lot more than a light-hitting defensively minded catcher as a long-term solution .
Maybe
But his minor league numbers make it look like he could have a pretty decent bat as a starter, Kurt Suzuki-esque. Coupled with great defense, I don’t think the Yankees would necessarily prefer to spend a ton on a long-term deal for a defensively challenged offensive catcher.
A lot hinges
On what Montero does for the next few years. They’re going to try very hard to make him stick at catcher. If he’s as bad as everyone seems to acknowledge, though, they’ll find him another position (COF?) and have a go at Mauer.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
strikeout rate makes me doubt it
Cervelli struck out 21.1% for his minor league career. That’s a lot for anyone, and an even bigger issue for a guy who doesn’t hit for any power. He’s got decent on-base numbers in the minors, but if he can’t hit the ball, then pitchers are just going to pound it in and make him try and put it into play. Suzuki doesn’t strike out a ton, has some extra-base power, and good on-base skills so you have to respect him, I just don’t think that Cervelli will get to use that on-base ability because there really isn’t much reason to be all that careful with him.
That's fair
He’s still quite young though, particularly for a catcher, and his 2007 showed a lot of promise with the bat.
Romine
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Re: Romine, Catchers
Not sure if he still is, but I’ve read on BaseballAmerica (I think this offseason or something, it was a study regarding catchers) that he is basically almost as bad as Montero.
Hopefully Posada can still give them a year or two more behind the plate. It does seem likely that they give Cervelli the back-up job next year and let Jose Molina walk. Cervelli will definitely get a good share of playing time and they love his game-calling apparently. Basically, I think the deciding factor in whether or not Cervelli is a Major League starting catcher is whether or not he can walk at a high rate, like he did in the minors.
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
Romine
Better than Montero behind the plate, but also no lock to stay there, either.
On the bright side, a lot of juice in that bat. My Romine-love has been well documented on here, but I remain of the opinion that he’s rather underrated by many.
my biggest issue with montero behind the plate
is the same problem I have with Flowers behind the plate. Catchers’ knees already take a lot of pressure over the course of a full season and having someone that big is even worse. I think best case for Montero has him spending about half his games behind the plate and half at DH, but I just doubt he’ll end up there at all.
montero
He might be making some improvements, but the glove isn’t going to be anywhere near major league caliber for a while if it ever is. The bat is probably going to be ready within 2 years at the rate he’s going . . .would you be willing to let him sit in the minors working on defense?
I think either the Yankees find a use for his bat elsewhere or his value as a trade chip begins to exceed his worth as a player to them and he gets dealt.
Frankly I think he’s got a very good chance to end up as the right-handed version Carlos Delgado, so his future looks strong in any case.
Jesus Montero ... Get a clue people
I can not stand reading comments on here from people that have NO IDEA what they are talking about.
Anyone who compares Montero to Carlos Delgado knows absolutely nothing about Montero. They are total opposites. Montero is a Very high average hitter who will never strike out much, the Piazza comparisons are legit with the bat and somewhat with the glove. Delgado is a Power hitter who has always struck out a ton and hit for a low average. And anyone who thinks his bat will not be Major league ready for a year or two from now, has no idea how good of a hitter he is right now. He could hit .270 or higher in the Majors right now and he will not strike out much. When your 19 years old and tearing apart AA, your are a PHENOM and can handle any level of pitching. Obviously with the injury, your looking at next season, but he has a great chance at being the everyday DH/C for the Yankees next season.
Delgado has always hit for a low average?
the guy is a .280 career hitter. It’s not amazing but it’s certainly not low. His career high is .344, he’s hit over .300 a couple of times, and in his prime he was pretty consistently in the .280-.300 range. Not saying I agree or disagree with the comp, but if you’re going to say that other people have no idea what they’re talking about, I’d suggest you double-check your info first.
Delgado
Era-adjustment, though. Delgado was definitely a beast in his prime, but you have to consider that those numbers are from the steroid era, when Nomar was hitting 370 on an annual basis.
FWIW, I’d wager that 320/400/500 in 2000 is worth about the same as 310/385/475 now (without actually looking it up).
Yeah, he was pretty epic
Just saying, that is some serious hyperbole.
Hyperbole
It was a hyperbolic statement. However, I’m amazed I wasn’t all that far off. Nomar hit 357 and 372 in consecutive years. .365/.426/.601 in 1999-2000.
Wow. Amazing.
My apologies
“Serious hyperbole” was some hyperbole in itself. And yeah, epic.
uh huh
The total opposite of a first baseman with a career line of .280/.383/.546 would be . . .Neifi Perez.
Delgado might be most remembered for his power stroke, but a career average of .280 is above-average. The guy has several .300+ campaigns. The lowest average he has EVER posted as a full-time player over the course of a season is .258, which still grades out as major league average. As for his strikeouts, in only one season as a full-time player has he struck out more than once per game, and that was in 1996.
I actually said his bat would “probably” be ready within 2 years, which is really aggressive for a teenager no matter how well he hits in AA but is evidently not good enough for you.
If not for the injury he’d likely be capable of doing some damage in the major leagues right now, although he’d probably be more likely to fall on his face as most 19 year olds would against major league pitching. However, even if he did enjoy initial success, it doesn’t mean he’d sustain it . . .and that’s the biggest difference between the experienced and the inexperienced.
Funny, I personally thought saying that ANY 19 year old has a decent chance at enjoying the success achieved by a career .946 OPS hitter who plays into his late 30s is pretty wild, but I did it anyways because Montero’s bat IS really something awesome. But fine, best hitter ever, you win.
Montero vs Delgado
Montero will be above .300 career hitter and more than likely above .320. Second, Delgado struck out over 100 times Every Year of his career. Montero will never strike out that much, I would say around half the strikeouts that Delgado has. I think it is a Very bad comparison, outside of both coming up as catchers, there is not much of a comparison. People get so concerned with Montero’s defense when 5 years from now, nobody will even care what position he plays. In the long run, great hitters rarely get looked at for their defense. Montero will be another Piazza or Pujols. Those comps work with Montero. I know, there is not another Pujols, we will see, I think he has a chance to be similar.
You've got some high expectations for him
I don’t think he has any shot at reaching Pujols level, and saying that a 19 year old in AA who will probably have to battle his weight for his entire career is probably going to be a .320+ career hitter is a little much IMO.
+1
Montero carrying a lifetime 320 average would mean that he’s a first ballot Hall of Famer. I cannot think of a single prospect who I’d go 50%+1 on being a first ballot HOFr.
Ken Griffey, Mark Prior and Andruw Jones are the only ones I can think of who I’d have even put down even money on for the HOF.
PS
I should note that I mean “in my lifetime”, and I still have my doubts about Montero’s age. Why did he have a part of his bonus revoked? The two rumors that seem to be floated most often are that he failed an in-house PED test and that he was lying about his age.
never
had has bonus reduced according to cashman, who has stated they signed him for 1.6 mil.
Agreed
Late to posting here but I have to agree.
Do people forget how hard it is for prospects to actually live up to their hype? Or how hard it is to maintain excellence over a career?
Comparing a 19 year old in AA to someone who is the greatest hitter at catcher of all time (after playing 16 seasons in the bigs) or a guy who might very well go down as the greatest right handed bat of all time is a tad bit too much, dont you think?
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