Indians system #1
by cubsfan1 on Aug 2, 2009 12:03 PM EDT
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01)Carlos Santana C -- What's not to love? Power hitting C who controls the strike zone better then maybe anyone in the minors. Defense improving.
02)Matt Laporta 1B/LF -- 30+HR w/ high AVG/OBP
03)Nick Weglarz OF -- I see similar numbers to what Adam Dunn puts up. EDIT-- Maybe a better numbers comp would be Nick Swisher.
04)Hector Rondon RHP -- Breakout prospect who has opened eyes w/ numbers and silky smooth delievery.
05)Lonnie Chisenhall 3B -- I LOVE this kids bat. Can straight rake.
06)Alex White RHP -- Front of the roatation stuff who could end up power closer.
07)Carlos Carrasco RHP -- Has the stuff to end up #2/3 on a 1st division team.
08)Jason Knapp RHP -- Love his big FB I beleive he ends up a starter. Could rate as high as 6.
09)T.J. House LHP -- I love his 3 pitch repertoire. 1 of my favriote prospects.
10)Nick Hagadone LHP -- Could rate higher if he can show he will end up a starter and put health questions behind him.
11)Kelvin De La Cruz LHP -- Could rate higher if elbow issues are behind him.
12)Alex Perez RHP -- I'll be honest I don't know much about him but scouts hold him in high regard.
13) Jeanmar Gomez RHP -- Probably could interchange Gomez, Perez, De LA cruz depending on how much you like each. I over looked him in the original post could be 11 easy.
14)Beau MIlls 1B -- Power bat but I'm not as sold as others.
15)Connor Graham RHP -- Could be a steal for Rafeal Betancourt. Needs to work on command. Could end up power releiver.
16)Scott Barnes LHP -- Would rate higher in another system.
17)Abner Abreu CF -- Lot to love. Injured not sure how serious though.
18)Lou Marson C -- Should have a nice career.
19) Jason Kipnis OF -- Solid tools across the board.
20)Jason Donald IF -- Has struggled mightily this year but could end up a super UTL in the Mark Derosa mold with similar numbers.
21)Carlos Rivero SS -- Indians officals see Johonny Peralta. Still learning the game not sure I buy the Peralta comp.
22)Jesse Todd RHP -- Closer of the future? Should end up at least a good set-up guy.
Honarable Mention -- Micheal Brantley OF, Wes Hodges 3B, Zach Putnam RHP, Bryce Stowell RHP, Trey Haley RHP, Tim Federoff OF, Jose Ozoria SS, Bryan Price RHP.
This list is a rough draft to give you an idea of what the Indians system will look like heading into next year. I'd like to focus less on who I could have moved up or down but more on impact and depth. The Indians had the #7 system according to BA coming into this year and have not graduated anyone of real importance (where as Texas has seen Andrus, Holland, Teagarden graduate and Beaven, Beltre, N. Ramirez havn't lived up to expectations) and have added a ton of talent through trades and the draft. My contention is the Indians have the best system now and heading into next year. AGREE/DISAGREE?
P.S. Feel free to post anyone of importance I have overlooked.
Fear not those who didn't like my posts this weekend back to the grind Monday...LOL.
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OH MAN.
My bad he would come in somehwere in the top 10. Sorry about that.
I'd Put Knapp 6
I’m a real fan of his. Traded for him in Cubsfan’s league actually. This system looks like someone’s fantasy system that started with Cleveland then traded a bunch of parts. Oh wait…
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Your right.
I could/should have ranked Knapp above White in the 6 spot but this was a quick rough draft. Mainly trying to give everyone an overview of the system rather then stress over who should move up or down a spot.
Oh
And missed Jeanmar Gomez.
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Damn.
Yeah I edited Knapp in and yes forgot Gomez definatly a top 20 guy.
Jeanmar?
How about him?
Wow, the Tribe is loaded quantity/quality wise.
So True
Reminds me of what Texas did
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I was thinking more the A's from last year
A ton of interesting prospects but not a hell of a lot at the very top. Still probably a top-3 system at least
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So loaded!!!!
With impact bats that are almost ML ready and pitching depth at every level. I edited the list sorry about the oversites can’t beleive I overlooked Knapp and Gomez.
More quantity...
than Texas, but not as much quality. It would at least be the second best system and you could make an argument for them to be number 1.
I disagree.
Feliz and Smoak would top this list 1 and 2 but after that their is more more quality and quantity imho. Let’s not forget that Andrus, Holland, Teagarden have graduated and a couple players took steps back.
I could see that.
Above Graham, Barnes, and even Mills.
here’s my top 30:
1. Carlos Santana ©
2. Matt LaPorta (LF/1B)
3. Hector Rondon (RHP)
4. Lonnie Chisenhall (3B)
5. Jason Knapp (RHP)
6. Nick Hagadone (LHP)
7. Nick Weglarz (LF/DH)
8. Kelvin De La Cruz (LHP)
9. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
10. T.J. House (LHP)
11. Jess Todd (RHP)
12. Jeanmar Gomez (RHP)
13. Alexander Perez (RHP)
14. Jason Donald (SS/2B)
15. Michael Brantley (LF/CF)
16. Bryan Price (RHP)
17. Abner Abreu (RF)
18. Scott Barnes (LHP)
19. Lou Marson ©
20. Beau Mills (1B)
21. Eric Berger (LHP)
22. Zach Putnam (RHP)
23. Connor Graham (RHP)
24. Tony Sipp (LHP)
25. Wes Hodges (3B)
26. Jordan Brown (1B)
27. Rob Bryson (RHP)
28. Carlos Rivero (SS)
29. Matt McBride (1B/C/DH)
30. Trey Haley (RHP)
Maybe, Kipnis, but I honestly don’t know enough about him.
I’ll wait untill White signs, but I would slot him ahead of Carrasco.
Kipnis sort of sounds like a 4th OF type to me. Doesn’t have a tool that stands out, doesn’t have great bat speed from what I’ve read…not sure what he is going to be in the end.
I know a lot of people are disappointed they said they would use White as a RP. Any chance he walks away because of that? Or that they change their minds?
LOL
I was kinda hoping to get more discussion about weather or not they are #1 and less on my rankings. Hahahahaha….oh well I guess.
I like the moves Shapiro has made
He has really retooled the system. That being said, I feel like there are many good players in the system, with Santana being the one great one. The top of the system isn’t as strong as the Rangers’ was, but looking over these names in one list shows that they have about 8 guys who could have a pretty big impact at the Major League level.
except he could of done marginally better
for V-Mart and Cliff Lee/ Ben Francisco IMO
Hagadone and Masterson and Price for V-Mart? – he should have gotten either Bowden or Kelly IMO
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 2, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure it's #1/Weglarz writeup is generous
If they’re not #1, they’ll be damn close. Their positional talent is so low on the defensive spectrum, and so much of their pitching talent might end up in the bullpen, that I imagine someone will come out ahead of them, though I’m not totally sure who that will be. I think the Rays might slot ahead of them, with Jennings, Beckham, Davis, Hellickson, etc.
I think you’re a bit generous to Weglarz. The problem is that he profiles in the minors a bit the way Dunn does in the majors. But Dunn put up really nice BA in the minors. Someone who’s going to be a star hitter in the majors really shouldn’t make as little contact in the minors as Weglarz.
Avg is a retarded meaningless stat.
But aside from that Wegz avg was dragged down by a horrendous April. When you look at his OPS and wOBA they’ve increased every year. Not bad for a 21 yr old in AA
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by world dictator on Aug 3, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Avg is neither retarded nor meaningless
The ability to regularly put the ball in play for a hit is a skill, not random luck. It is, however, subject to much randomness. Its also a less important measure of a player’s performance and value than lots of other measures we have (like OBP). This does not mean its “retarded” or “meaningless.” People need to stop saying this. Yes, AVG was for a long time held in much higher regard than it deserved… that does not mean its worthless.
Reread your post. You just made my argument for me.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Aug 3, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I havent really...
Avg. is neither meaningless nor retarded. Maybe that’s not what you meant, but its what you said. People keep trashing batting average. Its silly. Batting average is an important measure in many ways… but it is flawed.
More importantly, I do have reservations about Weglarz’s ability to hit for contact at the MLB level. That’s a serious concern.
Exactly
Batting Average is quite valuable. Just no where near as valuable as it had previously been made out.
Average isn't meaningless
It’s just less of a measure of overall value than OBP, and it’s less predictable than other rate stats. But if a guy consistently puts up very high or very low averages, it tells you something. Guys who hit for high averages in the minors often drop off in the majors (Dunn, Cust). Guys who hit for low averages in the minors often have serious contact issues.
Don’t regurgitate sabermetric orthodoxy from ten years ago if you don’t know what it means.
that last point needs to be emphasized more
Guys who hit for low averages in the minors often have serious contact issues.
I’m sure there are probably exceptions out there, but there’s a reason I still peek at averages for low level players, and that’s the main reason.
More importantly, I do have reservations about Weglarz’s ability to hit for contact at the MLB level. That’s a serious concern.
Weglarz batting average over the past three years. (Age in parenthesis)
2007 (19) Low A- .276
2008 (20) High A- .272
2009 (21) AA- .239
Before this year Weglarz has always put up a decent batting average. So let’s look closer at this years numbers:
Batting avg by month:
April .089
May .321
June .281
July .227
Clearly his horrendous April is dragging down his overall avg this year. But it you take a closer look you’ll see that his BABIP is only .262 indicating he’s probably had some bad luck. After accounting for park and luck factors you see that Wegz avg comes out to a healthy . 279 avg, even after batting .089 in April
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Aug 3, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Point taken..
Good point on Weglarz maybe a better numbers comp would have been Nick Swisher. But what I meant was low AVG 25+hr and high OBP not that he was a Dunn “clone” or “=” to Dunn just a rough base of skill.
As a sox fan
I’m pretty phased right now. In 3-5 years, most of these guys will be in the pros and the division might be a pushover for the Indians. This is a really strong system. The Indians just keep adding talent while Kenny Williams keeps taking away with every trade he makes.
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Jake Peavy = taking away talent?
I guess it hurts the Charlotte’s team’s odds of competing but . . .are you that worried about winning the International League?
I mean prospects are going like crazy
Our 2 top pitching prospects in the peavy deal. That trade way weakened what pitching depth we had
Carlos Guillen, the Latino Nick Punto
Be happy
The Indians traded 2 of their best players recently and while they acquired good young prospects, they failed to cause a dent in the Phillies and Sox systems. Is that necessary in a trade? No. But it’s still baffling you can trade Cliff Lee and not get ONE player that the Blue Jays wanted for Halladay.
and the Blue Jays didn’t get them either.
It was obvious that some of those guys — Buchholz, Bard, Drabek, Happ — weren’t going to be moved.
After pondering it over, I really think the Indians did fine on both deals in regards to getting value. Simply put, elite pitching prospects rarely get moved, particularly if they are close to “ready” (or in the bigs). Only speaking to value here. But the Carrasco’s of the world are about as high as it gets in regards to type of upper level arm that gets moved, and they got some “readiness” (Donald/Marson) and upside in Knapp. Granted, don’t understand the Marson addition that much … but he could be the backup as they give Santana more time, and then perhaps they shop Shoppach to save a bit of money, or Marson gets moved (assuming all goes well for Carlos Santana). As for the other trade, getting 3 arms in any deal is a coup these days. Getting 3 solid arms … that’s a solid deal.
Again, speaking just to value. As for the system, I honestly don’t know if I’d call it one without looking at other systems, but it’s up there. I’m personally not as high on some of the guys as the OP seems to be (Weglarz for one). Actually, JP’s list is fairly close to how I’d have it at first glance.
+1
As you say, the guys they got are as good pitching prospects as typically get moved – and many of the guys they received are close to MLB ready or already there. It is exceptionally hard to acquire this much MLB ready pitching that is young, cheap, team controlled for 5-6 years.
I do agree there is criticism due w/ regards to the lack of impact talent they received… but I thought they did really well. Theyre going to have so many cheap pieces they can probably buy a couple impact guys when they need, and they already have plenty in the high minors, too.
I also think the Indians did the best they could for VMart. After trading Cliff Lee, they pretty much had to trade VMart too. Because:
1. By trading Lee they signalled their intentions to reload. Without Lee they weren’t going to compete for the playoffs in 2010, and VMart’s contract was up after that.
2. If they didn’t trade him before the July deadline, they would have to wait until November (no way he could clear waivers in August). His value to another team would drastically decrease in the offseason due to his impending Free Agency.
So the BoSox figured that out and had them over a barrel. The only way the Indians could have gotten more was if they could have found another team(s) to get in a serious bidding war for him – which, by all reports, they couldn’t.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
“It was obvious that some of those guys — Buchholz, Bard, Drabek, Happ — weren’t going to be moved.”
And Brown? And Taylor? Give the Phillies their best starter for 2009 and they keep Drabek, Brown, Taylor and Happ?
I have less a problem with the Sox deal, but gotta love how they kept not even Clay and Bard but Reddick, Lars and traded their long man/7th inning guy and a talented prospect coming off injury. I will say again though, in the end I’m fine with that deal. The Phillies deal was bad. SD did a much better job in their trade. (Not saying a better package but a much better job trading a worse player, higher risk player and higher salaried player)
No dent? I have zero faith in Drabek and I’m not sure Taylor will be more than slightly above average from his future LF spot. Brown (who isn’t a sure thing at this point) is really the only thing you kept in my opinion. Once Happ falls back down to Earth, I really don’t know why you didn’t just pull the trigger on the Halladay deal.
The Red Sox at least have more premium talent in my opinion. Bard could close for a team right now (like say the Phillies?) and while I’m not sure what is in Buchholz future I’d defintely rate him above Happ, Drabke, Carrasco, and Knapp for the time being.
LaPorta
Shouldn’t he be in Cleveland by now? I figured they’d call him up ASAP once they cleared they way by trading Garko, VMart, and Francisco. If he’s such a top prospect, what are they waiting for?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Just take a quick shot
1) C Carlos Santana A-
2) 1B/OF Matt Laporta A-
3) RHP Hector Rondon B+
4) 3B Lonnie Chisenhall B+
5) OF Nick Weglarz B
6) RHP Jason Knapp B
7) RHP Alex White B
8) RHP Carlos Carrasco B
9) RHP Jeanmar Gomez B
10) RHP Nick Hagadone B
11) RHP Jess Todd B
12) LHP Scott Barnes B-
13) RHP Kelvin De La Cruz B-
14) RHP Adam Miller B-
15) RHP Bryan Price B-
16) IF Jason Donald B-
17) LHP TJ House C+
18) 1B Beau Mills C+
19) 3B/1B Wes Hodges C+
20) C Lou Marson C+
Feel like a few are too high. I just threw this out there quickly. Might revisit this. Moved Alex White all over the place. There are lots of similar quality pitching prospects here. Very hard to separate them.
by alskor on Aug 3, 2009 2:02 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i probably like this one the best so far....
but I don’t necessarily agree with the letter grades….
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 3, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point
I dont know much about him, though. Id probably put him right next to House as a C+. Just read a couple things indicating good stuff, but I dont know a whole lot. Statistically speaking, he has unimpressive. Not striking out that many and walking a few too many. Good ground ball rate at Lake County, nothing special at Kinston so far. Seems like an interesting prospect and Id like to learn more. Not comfortable going more than C+. Id slot him at 17, I think.
Id obviously go much more in depth if I was making an offseason list rather than just throwing this together quick… not that that is a valid excuse.
Everyone is an expert these days, admit you don’t know much about the players and just throw grades out. Good philosophy. ;)
(being somewhat sarcastic)
per Callis from the "Ask BA" feature
There finally will have to be a changing of the guard with the Indians’ top pitching prospects. Adam Miller had the top spot among Cleveland pitchers for most of this decade, but repeated injury problems have left his career in jeopardy. David Huff is now in the big leagues and Kelvin de la Cruz is out with elbow problems, so it’s time for T.J. House, Alex Perez and Hector Rondon to get their due. How do you rank those three young pitchers, and who else should be included in the discussion of top Indians pitching prospects?
Elliot P. Legow
Youngstown, Ohio
I’d rank them House, Rondon, Perez, but you could put them in almost any order and defend it. I’d put House No. 1 because he’s a lefthander with a low-90s fastball that touches 95 mph and a hard slider. He throws strikes and has had no trouble succeeding in low Class A as a 19-year-old, showing why the Indians paid him $750,000 as a 16th-round pick a year ago.
Rondon, who pitched in the 2008 Futures Game, is the most advanced of the trio, thriving in Double-A and Triple-A at age 21. He has outstanding life on his low-90s fastball, and just needs more consistency with his slider and changeup. Perez has received less fanfare than House or Rondon, but he’s an intriguing 19-year-old with advanced command of an 88-90 mph fastball, curveball and changeup. He also has a lot of room to add strength to his 6-foot-2, 156-pound frame.
House.
Way to low. I’m telling you this kid is gonna be a pretty good pitcher. I’d say B- easily. I would take House over Donald, Price, Miller, Barnes, and maybe over De La Cruz and Todd.
Again, without knowing too much about his stuff
He seems to profile similarly to Perez. Not a great K rate or walk rate – but not bad. Good groundball numbers. His stats don’t wow you.
On either one I could be convinced otherwise… but I would be surprised to see John go higher than C+ for these guys. They havent been dominant, theyve been just pretty good – and without impressive K rates. Theyve also only done this at lower levels.
I just dont know enough about him to give him a higher grade. Id be happy to learn more about his stuff.
I'd put Alex White at a B+, myself
Aggressive, but I’m buying what he’s selling. It’s not outrageous to think that he could be an above-average MLB starter by next September.
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It's just one of those things, one of those things
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In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I originally had him there
Moved him around a lot. John doesnt usually go that aggressive with guys like that…
Jim Callis
As I wrote in a column posted earlier today Premium, I wouldn’t have made the Lee trade if I were running the Indians. He’s still a very good value for 2010 at $9 million and Cleveland could have contended for the American League Central title. Carrasco (No. 2 on our Phillies Top 30 in the 2009 Prospect Handbook), Marson (No. 3) and Donald (No. 4) have lost some luster in Triple-A, and Knapp (No. 10) has passed them all. Only Knapp and Carrasco would crack my updated Indians Top 10:
1. Carlos Santana, c
Stolen from the Dodgers last summer in the Casey Blake trade.
2. Matt LaPorta, of
Scouts are cooling a little on the centerpiece of the C.C. Sabathia trade.
3. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b
Surprise 2008 first-rounder is hitting just like the Indians hoped.
4. Jason Knapp, rhp
One of the hardest throwers in the lower minors is out with shoulder fatigue
5. Nick Hagadone, lhp
Has regained power stuff after Tommy John surgery, might be a reliever.
6. Alex White, rhp
Tremendous value pick at 15th overall in the 2009 draft, though still unsigned.
7. Nick Weglarz, of
Lefthanded version of LaPorta with a chance to surpass him down the road.
8. Hector Rondon, rhp
He and Weglarz are the only guys on this list who were Indians before June 2008.
9. T.J. House, lhp
Signed for $750,000 as a 16th-round pick in 2008.
10. Carlos Carrasco, rhp
What he has in stuff he has lacked in poise and results in the upper minors.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2009/268637.html
interesting list
I think I like Rondon a lot more than he does, though.
I would agree
I wish the comment about Rondon had more of an explanation. Funny to see Hagadone still getting so much love from BA… remember the craziness when the Red Sox top 10 list came out?
I am second guessing myself for moving Knapp and White down from where I had them originally. I love Knapp… I saw John had commented that Knapp was only a B to him a couple days ago so I dropped him. With White, I had him #5 originally, then looked back at other major college relief arms in the draft and where John ranked them… seemed like the kind of guy John usually gives a B- too….
Rondon
There are still some with concerns about his slider/change. This a quote from the Indians’ farm director, and was taken around the time that Rondon was promoted to AAA:
http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2009/07/minor-happenings-popham-and-rondon.html
“He has essentially done everything we have asked him to do; however, we do not think his slider and changeup are effective enough at the major league level to get outs. He still gets outs with them in Double-A, but we want to see that happens in Triple-A and we feel like it is going to take a little bit better hitter to show him that he needs to use his pitches more effectively and not rely on the fastball as much. The slider needs to be a little better, and the changeup needs to be better and not just be a pitch as it needs to be a major league average pitch. And the best feedback he can get is from the hitters.”
His results in AAA have obviously been great so far. However, if the farm director of the organization is publicly stating that they don’t think his breaking ball and offspeed pitches can get outs at the major league level, Callis may be getting similar feedback from his sources which would cause Rondon to slide on this list.
Very interesting
Id still have him higher, though.
That reports seems a little dated. He now has 5 starts at AAA and more Ks than IP, as well as less hits than IP.
Still a concern, obviously, but then again pretty much every pitching prospect needs to list “must work on secondary stuff and consistency” on their sheet of negatives. Rondon seems to be passing the test of AAA so far.
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