My Top 25 As Of August 2nd, 2009
by cwhitman412 on Aug 2, 2009 9:39 AM EDT
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PrintSame format as the PP list. I basically took about 30 mins to put this together so I probably forgot someone. Feel free to ask about anything or remind me of anyone who got forgotten.
1. Heyward
2. Montero
3. Stanton
4. Smoak
5. Bumgarner
6. Tillman
7. Santana
8. Posey
9. Matusz
10. Jennings
11. Morrison
12. Parker
13. Brown
14. Fmart
15. Alvarez
16. Drabek
17. Mejia
18. Weglarz
19. Taylor
20. Wade Davis
21. Latos
22. Chacin
23. Rondon
24. Decker
25. Martin Perez
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Stanton too high
I like Stanton – but when you strike out at that rate, I’m not putting him that high. He’s the minors current version of Delmon Young IMO.
Walk Rate
He walks a lot more than Delmon ever did. He also shows more power. Delmon always seemed more like a 30-20 guy than the 40+ homer guy Stanton is.
Plus I love that he’s 19 in AA, still showing power and still walking decently.
And thanks for the compliment about the list. Knowing you that means a lot.
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Walks
at age 19, Delmon in 330 AB’s struck out 66 times. Stanton has whiffed 60 times in only 180 AB’s. The walk rate is better, but not that drastically. It’s not an exact comparison, but close enough to make a point.
Preferences
I prefer a high walk rate over a low K rate. BB’s can be more mental while K’s can be more towards the swing. Plus as I said earlier, Stanton seems more like a slugger. Stanton seems like Fielder in the majors while Delmon seemed more like a 30/30 guy.
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I'm really struggling to see any comparison
between Delmon Young and Stanton. Neither Delmons minor league nor major league #’s look anything like Stantons.
You people
take some of these comps the wrong way. The point was Delmon struck out too much which is why I was never as high on him as most. I think the same will hold true for Stanton, just as seems to be doing for Brandon Wood.
differences
Delmon had a 51% career MILB GB rate, while Stanton has a 37% career GB rate. That’s a noticeably different profile in terms of batted ball type. Stanton also has the luxury of being able to spend a couple of extra years working on his approach if need be, something that Delmon was not afforded due to his MLB contract right out of high school. So considering they have differing walk rates, K rates, and batted ball rates, and are not locked into the same development path, I don’t see how they are that similar of prospects.
Delmon, 19, AA
Delmon started his 19 year old season in AA, and had a .336/.383/.582 line. He hit 20 HRs in 330 ABs, and also stole 25 bases. He finished the season in AAA, where he batted .285/.303/.447.
I note this for two reasons. One; Delmon Young was a ridiculous prospect. Second, it’s not really fair to compare anybody to him, because very few players will have shown his production in the minors at that age, and hopefully many will outstrip him in the majors
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by OldProspects on Aug 2, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
how do you leave ss phenom and 18 year old carlos triunfel off of this list????
fuck lookout landing for banning me for no reason at all...nerds
Hurt All Year
Shown not much power otherwise.
I’m really high on him, but he’s shown nothing so far this year.
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oh what aboout phillip aumonte
fuck lookout landing for banning me for no reason at all...nerds
by bigdickwillie on Aug 2, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Reliever For Now
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Doesn't matter...
He has been transitioned to a reliever by his team (stupidly), but that doesn’t take away any of the talent/potential he actually has. If another team or you had him, he’d be a starter.
That’s just the way I look at it.
To be more clear...
You rank a player on what his potential/talent/value is. All scouting reports indicated Aumont as being a starter and that Seattle is RETARTED for sending him to the bullpen.
Not really
From day one there were serious questions as to whether he could stick as a starter. He’s Canadian, and as is typical, started playing baseball late. His stamina, repertoire and health were all question marks and kind of still are. No one questions his stuff, of course. They moved him before they had to, sure… But it was 50/50 he ended up in the pen anyway and with his arm action and mechanics they may even have prevented an arm injury from making the decision for them.
I probably would have give him a bit longer to see if he could stick… But this move gets waaaaayyy too much flak. They guy was a major project arm who many believed would end up in the pen anyway
by alskor on Aug 3, 2009 7:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's also not a SS.
He’s already been moved to 3B and has zero current power. Certainly an intriguing prospect, but not Top-25 level or even close.
Tools Whore
And after his gruesome injury, he might not even be a third baseman
Hell, he might not even be a baseball player. Some tibia fractures heal right… and some don’t. “Don’t” is a very bad thing for his future value.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Same As PP List
I suppose I kinda get a bit bleh over prospects that fail at the Major League level. Especially someone like LaPorta who was a senior in College. I don’t know, I was very high on him until this year. He kinda smells like Wood to me.
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He "failed" in 49 plate appearances
If you were high on LaPorta coming into the season, his .394 wOBA in AAA, improvement in K% from AA, and meaningless sample-size MLB stint shouldn’t have changed your opinion much.
As I Said
It’s my opinion. Guys who fail have shown that they didn’t succeed, while guys who haven’t been up there haven’t failed yet. SNTS I guess, but it’s my mindset.
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Well
I find it interesting that you feel that you have grounds to shit on Project Prospect’s list, when you admit that your own method of ranking prospects is just cobbling something together in 30 minutes (that may miss players that didn’t come to your mind within that 30 minutes) which is based on opinion -heavily influenced by “SNTS” no less- and not by objective analysis.
You also you went out of your way to complain about their rankings of Stanton, Parker, Santana, F-Mart, and Rondon, yet you rank all of these guys within 10 places of their rankings. That’s really a negligible difference.
+1 on the last part
This is the biggest problem I see on this board and others like it. We are talking about the top 100 of hundreds/thousands of players. A difference of 5-10-20+ spots doesn’t really matter, they are all in the top 1% of MiLB players.
In no world does 49 AB equal a significant sample size.
"sometimes the internet is hard for me." - ClemsonGirl
by world dictator on Aug 3, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Extremely Close
Tons of players right on the edge that I like better then some of these guys, but they need to show more. Neal, Chisenhall, Lyles, Moore, many of those high upside guys come next.
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I think...
you have Bumgarner is too high, and I don’t really like F-Mart at all anymore. He just seems like he isn’t going to be more than an average outfielder. I know he is still young, but, I wouldn’t rank him in my top 25.
Too many.....
Too many people who btw, are not in a MLB front office, sour on prospects way to damn fast. Its like if some highly rated prospect dosn’t come in and pull a Albert Pujols there written off. Laporta is a perfect example only 49 ABs and I think the reason he was sent down was more to do with getting regular Abs in AAA w/ Francisco coming back from injury then the Indians not thinking he was ready.
Look at guys like Choo and Lind both highly rated prospects who struggled in their 1st tours through the ML and didn’t start realizing there potential till 25-26 years old.
cubsfan1
I think you cannot have said it better. I try to reply to posts which do not make much sense usually, but seems more recently I find a lot of posts here from people with sound thinking.
by ChalupaCabrera on Aug 2, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you Case for having Bumgarner as the #1 pitching prospect
Which is where he deserves to be. As for Stanton, his upside puts him right around where you have him
only 25?
It’s so hard to get a feel for how you really feel about prospects and for your methodology in general when you only show 25 guys.
Other than that . . .it’s basically the PP list – Carlos Carrasco + Jaff Decker.
How close is Chris Carter?
He’s put up pretty awesome numbers. In a park that suppresses HR, he’s hit 18 of them while putting up a line of .314/.412/.524. I don’t know that anybody thought he’d hit .300. Defense aside, he’s got one of the best bats in the minors.
So what are you tryig to say?
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
He's not a .260 hitter either, though
His BABIP last year was .295, while before that it was generally around .340 for him.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Well his MiLB career BA is 285
So its not like he has a low BA for his career.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
Chacin not pitching
Any ideas why he hasn’t pitched since Tuesday? Seems like a waste to me to not use him or send him back down.
Play ball!
I have a strong feeling that the Rockies are giving Chacin a taste of the Major Leagues
then replacing Hammel in the rotation with Chacin, especially if he struggles in his next start.
You have no idea how much I want him in the rotation right now.
Could also be an innings saving move, he had already thrown over a hundred and is just 21.
If they don’t use him or if it isn’t an innings saving move, then i want Chacin in Triple A and Herges in the bullpen.
Neftli Feliz?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland -Tom Grieve Rangers Minor League Player of the Year
Martin Perez - Nolan Ryan Rangers Minor League Pitcher of the Year
OMG
i’m not a Feliz fan by any means but how in the heck does he not land on a top 25 list????? I guess I just took for granted that most anyone would already have him on there.
anyone who has a pitch
That profiles as a true 80 pitch and is this close to (now in)the big league should get a free pass to top 15 status. Throw in his numbers and age and realize that the bullpen move is a 2009 move and you got a top ten prospect
"I tend to like young Latinos" -Jason Parks
by SaltyDawg on Aug 2, 2009 5:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
im hoping that he heard that Feliz had been called up
and left him off.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
No
This post was before then and also he didnt seem to indicate that having appeared in the ML was a reason for not being included.
where do you put Jason Knapp?
and you got balls putting Weglarz ahead of Michael Taylor. I like your style sir.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Montero hurt
From Rotoworld: "Yankees prospect Jesus Montero will miss the rest of the year with a fractured middle finger on his left hand.
We’ve argued that the Yankees should have started developing Montero as a first baseman/designated hitter already. Fortunately, this isn’t a major injury, but it did come while he was catching and it shows the dangers of leaving him behind the plate when it’s doubtful that he’ll ever be a major league-quality catcher. He should be ready to play in the Arizona Fall League if the Yankees want him to."
Play ball!
I like your list for the most part, very solid. IMO-Jennings and FMart are a bit high. I like the Mejia rank, believe he has massive upside. Does anybody know why he hasn’t been allowed to start in a while? I was under the impression the Mets were just limiting his innings. Also how close do you think Cashner is to the top25?
20% of this list belongs to me
hell yeah.
i may be sitting in 12th place… but not for long. mwuahaha
You Loser
JKJK <33
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