What to make of Trevor Cahill's rookie season
Coming into this season, Cahill was seen as one of the most exciting pitching prospects in baseball. He produced a lot of praise on this website (with many Brandon Webb comps) and then the predictable back lash.
The praise arose from his excellent k/9 numbers, his low ERA and his outstanding GO/AO ratio while pitching against competition several years his senior. He looked to be the rare bird that strikes out a lot of guys while also keeping the ball on the ground.
Despite only 6 starts at AA, he broke camp with the A's and has stayed in their rotation all year long. As a 21 year old, he has been brilliant at times and really struggled at other times. I remember doing some math during the first two months of the season and, taking away two horrific starts where he left very early, he had something like a sub-3 ERA and a WHIP around 1.15. I know I was cherry picking, but the idea was that he's going to suffer through some rough outings due to his youth and inexperience, but the other starts show a very talented pitcher.
However, since that time it appears he's regressed, at least in regards to his production. He has allowed a lot of hits and his control hasn't been very good. Additionally, his K rate has been very disappointing at 4.5 per 9.
Now I realize he's a very young pitcher having his first go around in the majors and bumps in the road are to be expected.
My question to everyone is, what kind of production do you expect from Cahill next year and in the next few years? Will he become that ace that many projected or will it take a few years for him to iron things out or will he never be that guy many thought he'd become?
Below are his numbers from the minors and this year, courtesy of baseballcube.com
| Year | Team | Lg | Age | Org | Lvl | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SH | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WP | H9 | HR9 | BB9 | K9 | WHIP |
| 2006 | ATH | Ariz | 18 | Oak | Rk | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 1.00 |
| 2007 | KAN | Midw | 19 | Oak | A | 11 | 4 | 2.73 | 20 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105.1 | 85 | 38 | 32 | 3 | 40 | 117 | 8 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 10.0 | 1.19 |
| 2008 | STO | Calif | 20 | Oak | A+ | 5 | 4 | 2.78 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 87.1 | 52 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 31 | 103 | 9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 10.6 | 0.95 |
| MID | Tex | 20 | Oak | AA | 6 | 1 | 2.19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.0 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 19 | 33 | 3 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 1.16 | |
| 2009 | OAK | AL | 21 | Oak | MLB | 6 | 12 | 4.97 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139.1 | 152 | 84 | 77 | 25 | 57 | 70 | 4 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 1.50 |
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32 comments
Comments
I should add
His GO/AO numbers were
2.19 in A+ and 3.06 in AA (2.43 overall that year)
by joltinjoe on Aug 19, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A´s Big 3
Just like the other two young A´s, Mazzaro and to a lesser extent (because he´s already closer) Anderson, Cahill most of all needs a bit of time and pay his dues. He´s the type of pitcher who´ll be inconsistent for a year or two and suddenly break out in a big way if he stays healthy.
In a couple of years, the A´s could have one of the top 1-2-3 punches in Baseball with these 3.
by Doob on Aug 19, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That is going to be a very scary division
with what the Rangers are building as well.
08/03/2009 A day that will live in infamy for the rest of the AL West.
by Michael Cave on Aug 19, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw a big thing with those stats
The HR/9 and H/9 raised to ridiculous levels…..I wonder what that means
by bballrox4717 on Aug 19, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thats what happens when you rush prospects
they suck until they figure it out. he should be in the minors right now and if he was doing very well, call him up around now to see what hes got
by matthewmafa on Aug 19, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was against this from the beginning
Cahill just wasn’t ready for the bigs at the start of the year. Yeah, on the surface his numbers in AA looked really nice, but they showed a rise in BB rate, a slight decline in K rate, and a slight raise in HR rate. The problem was he had such a small sample size there, it really didn’t look that bad at first glance. What he could have used was a few months in AA to refine his control. His knuckle-curve was supposed to be his out pitch, but he’s thrown it very rarely—I only saw one or two of his starts and they were at the beginning of the year, so I don’t really recall how it looked, but I’d be willing to bet control/command issues are a problem here as well.
It doesn’t surprise me that Anderson has fared better, he’s a much more polished pitcher. I really didn’t understand starting the clocks for either Anderson or Cahill from the get go. Oh well, Anderson has pitched pretty well, and should be fine from here on out. Cahill…..I just hope this doesn’t end up causing him to struggle for a few years to get things figured out.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 19, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Putting Cahill in the A's rotation to start the season was, sorry Billy, moronic
There was absolutely no reason to believe that he would be better than the AAA filler arms that you can find for a few hundred grand a year.
Cahill’s problem has a lot to do with pitch selection and command— he’s not getting strikeouts because he’s throwing nothing but fastballs, and he’s throwing nothing but fastballs because he’s constantly behind in the count. He really needs a reboot from scratch in AAA next season. Hopefully the A’s can put together a solid rotation without him so that they can leave him in the minors to start the year.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Well said. Do you think this season will hurt Cahill’s development?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's possible, obviously no way to tell yet
He’s been much too fastball-dependent this year, throwing it in over 70% of his pitch choices (76th of 84 qualified pitchers in fastball percentage this season, and most of the guys in front of him are either similarly green, or suck, or both). If that becomes habitual, he might become the next Daniel Cabrera.
He got strikeouts in the minors with his offspeed stuff more than his fastball. He needs to rediscover that if he wants to be more than a back-of-the-rotation arm. Thus, he needs to be sent to the minors to work on offspeed pitches.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah.
I have not seen a quality curve this year he was rumored to have.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
by Syphon on Aug 20, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just worried that if Beane puts him back in AAA
He’ll give him the Daric Barton/Travis Buck/Aaron Cunningham treatment.
He definitely should be in AAA, but sometimes I can’t figure out where Billy’s head is anymore.
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 20, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cahill
april- okay/decent in 3 of 4 starts…1 terrible start vs the Rays
may/june- despite not so great peripheral stats still maintained a 3.89 era during both those months
july- terrible
august- 2 lousy starts vs tex/tor, 2 solid starts vs white sox/orioles
he’s had a huge issue vs lefty hitters.
despite his well known great sinker, fastball movement his GB/FB ratio has been pretty much equal every month other than july. Maybe they were better off letting him start the yr in AAA for more progress , but other factors influenced this. They took that risk with cahill/anderson
1. They tried to add a veteran like Randy Johnson, that didnt happen
2. Duchscherer had missed the spring and now all of the season so far
3. The failures of eveland/gallagher
4. Gio was injured during the spring which put him out of the rotation competition
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 19, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The "there was no one else!!1" argument is pure bosh
Jerome Williams and Edgar Gonzalez could hardly have been worse than Cahill and Anderson in April.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They had hopes of contending back in april
Putting Gonzalez/WIlliams might have been the safe and smart move for the long term to protect cahill/anderson, but I doubt that wouldve happened. Worst case couldve just stuck w/ gallagher/gio/eveland those spots, but they decided against that.
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 19, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopes of contending?
If the A’s thought they would beat the Angels in April, then they obviously are out of touch with reality. You aren’t winning that division with a bunch or rookie arms, and aging veteran bats.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that seemed to be the plan at the time.
of course you can look back 3-4 months later and say it wasnt realistic
adding what they expected to be an improved offense didnt work out.
they had a deep bullpen…with those 2 factors there was reason to think it would take pressure of the young sps and hover around the .500 mark and what was considered not a dominant division by preseason “experts”
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 19, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
was obvious
i know BP-Billy Beane fan boys had the A’s as contenders, but that was nutty talk. bad (or too young — pick your poison) starting pitching, excellent pen, and weak hitting. no way should that ever have been seen as a contender.
that Beane bought into it is his bad. no one else’s. the real shame is that if this ends up being a long term setback due to Cahill/Mazzaro taking a step back in development for no immediate gain.
by scooter on Aug 21, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to have predicted that 7 out of 9 Angels starters would outplay their projections by huge margins
I didn’t have a problem with the “soft buy” strategy that the A’s took in and of itself— just with some of the individual choices involved (the Holliday debacle and putting Cahill/Anderson in the rotation).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem with the Holliday debacle is it seemed to require Cahill/Anderson in the rotation.
Which was a bad idea. A very bad idea indeed.
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you just agree with yourself?
I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad
by thecoolest on Aug 20, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe? Do usually disagree with yourself?
Eventually, my colleague and I trotted from the two-bit seats to the three-bit seats to get a closer view of the action. - Jlaff on Turn Back the Clock Day
by designatedforassignment on Aug 20, 2009 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you find yourself NOT agreeing with yourself, you need to seek professional help...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 20, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't seem to get it
Gonzalez and Williams (well, OK, not Williams— but they had plenty of candidates) were, in April, BETTER PITCHERS. I mean, hell, Gonzalez is STILL probably a better pitcher than Cahill right now. Given the difference in their tRAs, I wouldn’t expect Cahill to overtake Gonzalez until at least the middle of next season.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't blame A's management for trying it
Cahill and Anderson were more or less interchangable coming into the year, and Anderson’s ML run has been an unquestioned success. I still think Cahill will be fine; he’ll likely need to do confer closely with the pitching coach and possibly start in the bullpen next year, though.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh, I never thought they were actually interchangable
I actually thought that was a strange opinion. Anderson, to me, always seemed better, closer, and the guy with the higher ceiling.
I think the worst thing that happened to Cahill is that Anderson got so good so fast. It made others think that he, too, was going to be that good (that soon, anyway).
by thejd44 on Aug 20, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More separation between the number of walks to strikeouts
Would probably help him, though it is his first full MLB season.
Or is Kendry perhaps the one who needs to sit?
by BBFan1 on Aug 19, 2009 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What it tells me.
It tells me that Cahill should have made 20 starts in AAA this season. And it also tells me that Billy Beane wasted a year of his eligibility.
by CoolCat23 on Aug 19, 2009 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Cahill turns it around and becomes a quality starter..
Beane better buy out 1 FA year to make it up to us. :)
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
by Syphon on Aug 20, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd prefer he stayed in AAA
but there is something to be said for adjusting to ML hitters, compared to AAA hitters. anderson seems to be a much more certain thing than cahill, though obviously, given a handful of his excellent starts, cahill has the potential to be a very good pitcher as well. i thought oakland should have sent him back down in july, when he was struggling, as his mechanics were off a little. i hope they shut him and anderson down in september, though, or at least go to a 6-man rotation if duke ever makes it back this year.
by guy incognito on Aug 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
should have been traded for jason donald.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 20, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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