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Chicago Cubs Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

Jake Fox wants to know why he wasn't in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book.  (AP Photo/John Smierciak)

More photos » by John Smierciak - AP

Jake Fox wants to know why he wasn't in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. (AP Photo/John Smierciak)

Chicago Cubs Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published November 29, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the OLD LIST. It is NOT a new list. Grades are from last November. I won't do new grades or lists until I start writing the 2010 book.

Star-divide

1) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Hit .316/.351/.535 in the Midwest League, but just .244/.262/.341 in the Florida State League. He's very young, main red flag here is extremely low walk rate, just nine all season. Strikeouts aren't bad with 57 in 392 at-bats, but he's somewhat overmatched right now. Doesn't turn 20 until next week, very young still.

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B: 3.52 ERA with 56/22 K/BB in 72 innings for Triple-A Iowa, 7.81 ERA with 17/12 K/BB in 28 innings in the majors. I have given up on trying to predict this guy. I've always felt they were rushing him too quickly.

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS, Grade B: Hitting .270/.334/.473 for Low-A Peoria, with 19 homers, 40 walks, 83 strikeouts. Hitting .305/.362/.512 in the second half.

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B-: 1.50 ERA with 34/15 K/BB in 42 innings in the Florida State League, 2.92 ERA with 31/17 K/BB in 37 innings in the Double-A Southern League. Kept on short leash (20 starts but just 79 innings) as he converts to rotation from previous bullpen role. Good stuff, command still wobbly at times but a high ceiling.

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B-: Hitting .314/.385/.417 with 21 steals in the Northwest League. Doing well so far, looks like a very intriguing player.

6) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B-:  3.70 ERA with 77/39 K/BB in 83 Double-A innings. Demoted to the Florida State League for disciplinary reasons, 0.36 ERA so far with 24/3 K/BB in 25 innings and just 15 hits allowed. Way too good for that level. A very fine prospect if his head is on straight.

7) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .291/.323/.494 for Double-A Tennessee. Walk rate is still very low (12 in 237 at-bats). Production up slightly as he repeats the level.

8) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C+: Hitting .213/.259/.365 with 11 homers in 83 games for Tennessee. Walk rate is very low (13 in 295 plate appearances).

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+: Made first appearance in the Arizona Rookie League on August 15th, recovering from Tommy John.

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP, Grade C+: 5.27 ERA with 65/28 K/BB in 97 innings in the Midwest League, 113 hits. Throws strikes but right now it looks like his stuff just isn't good enough.

11) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade C+: Hit .302/.340/.391 with 22 steals in the Florida State League, promoted to Double-A and has struggled so far (.222/.314/.244 in 13 games). Just 19 years old, raw but very promising given age/experience level.

12) Junior Lake, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .246/.279/.374 with 17 walks, 122 strikeouts in 398 at-bats in the Midwest League. Like Castro, very young and toolsy, but plate discipline is horrendous and has prevented him from thriving as Castro has done this  year.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP, Grade C+: 4.78 ERA with 75/41 K/BB in 85 innings for Daytona, 93 hits allowed. Not a lot going on here except for a 1.48 GO/AO ratio. Needs better control.

14) Micah Hoffpauir, 1B, Grade C: hit .233/.280/.422 in 81 major league games, 180 at-bats. Now back at Iowa, hitting .250/.300/.472 in nine games. He's old at age 29 and not a real prospect obviously, but worse players have had careers.

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C: 4.15 ERA with 105/45 K/BB in 126 innings for Iowa, pitched in six major league innings allowing three runs with a 6/1 K/BB. Older guy at 25 and short, but looks like he could be a useful pitcher.

16) Don Veal, LHP, Grade C: Went to Pirates in Rule 5 draft after this list was published. Has walked 16 in 10 major league innings, currently on rehab assignment in the minors.

17) Josh Kroeger, OF, Grade C: Signed with White Sox as minor league free agent after this list was published, hitting .269/.316/.430 with 20 steals in Triple-A. Worse players have had careers.

18) Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade C: Hitting .258/.344/.396 with 10 homers, 11 steals but 13 caught stealing in Double-A. Not a lot of difference between this year and last year, though walk rate is slightly higher.

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade C: Excellent in A-ball, has been so-so in four Double-A starts, combined numbers are 2.58 ERA with a 106/47 K/BB in 115 innings, 83 hits on the season. Has always had the stuff and has stayed healthy this year. Moving up the charts quickly.

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C: 6.88 ERA with 104/44 K/BB in 124 innings in Triple-A, 141 hits. Throws strikes but stuff is short.

The Cubs had a lot of guys I didn't know what to do with on the list last fall, with a mixture of old guys with Triple-A success and young guys who were very low in the system. The outcome reflects this compromise. Even Baseball America had the 28-year-old Hoffpauir at 12 on their list.

I don't know why I didn't have Jake Fox in the book. I was certainly aware of him and had written about him before. I had given him a C+ and a fairly positive review of his power potential in 2008. Not putting him in the '09 book looks like a stupid moron mistake and I don't remember my thought process or lack thereof. This is his age 27 career breakout, but it's fun for Cubs fans to watch and nice to see a product of the system doing well, especially one that scouts have panned in the past.

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It seems like...

on every list so far, there is at least one player who ends up on the Pirates : )

by joegonzo on Aug 19, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll add some thoughts later

But in general, I believe our system has really moved up last year. There was no debate last year that it was a bad system. I can love the system and be honest. I had hope, but it was a weak system.

A strong 2008 draft coupled with some players stepping up have really pushed this system forward. Year to year, the only thing that matters to me is if the system has improved, but people love rankings, so I’ll throw it out there and see what people think – I think the Cubs system is probably tops in the NL Central (granted, that isn’t really saying much) and that a good case can be made for it to be ranked in the middle tier (11-20). I’ll be curious non-Cubs fans say.

I’ve been working on a top 30, but my top 10 right now stands

1. Josh Vitters, A-/B+. Yes, I have concerns, but let’s wait and see. He’s improved from last year and the scouting reports have always said he had good judgment.

2a. Andrew Cashner, B+/B. He’s really taken huge strides. I’ll be the first to say I did not expect this. I could understand if folks opted for a B here.

2b. Jay Jackson, B+/B. Okay, some folks will say B. I’ll stick with my B+, but I can understand a B. He’s shown improved velocity this year on the fastball. The slider is still a plus pitch and is, by most accounts, a lot more consistent than Cashner’s offering. A lot of reports have suggested that his curveball/changeup have improved dramatically. He was dominant for a stretch in AA, before tough month and the demotion.

4. Starlin Castro, B. Excellent tools, good performance after a huge jump. Good reports on character. Defensive reports suggest the ability is there, so I’m not concerned yet. I’m more concerned about how he adds weight, and how he adjusts to the new weight.

5. Chris Carpenter, B/B-. I was wary of calling this a breakout year when he was in Peoria, but now, I think it’s fair.

6. Hak-ju Lee, B/B-. Solid campaign at Boise so far, showing an advanced approach.

7. Brett Jackson, B-/B. I was fine with the pick, and so far, so good.

8. Ryan Flaherty, B-/B. I was a bit harsh on him earlier in the year, when he had some bad luck, but he’s really put it together, and the reports on his glove have been solid. In an interview earlier in the year, the Peoria coaches said that he was working on fixing his swing earlier in the year, as he was opening up.

9. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-/C+. Consider this a draft pick ranking of sorts – some background from last year, excellent potential. He’s throwing in Arizona right now as he works his way back from TJ. A healthy Rhee, one that showed similar performance to last year, would rank much higher.

10. Kyler Burke, C+. He’s really put together an excelletn year. Took me awhile to come around on this, due to his late Spring/early summer slump.

This knocks out Ryan Searle, who I had also come around on.

One of the most befuddling guys to me is Dan McDaniel. After a hot start, his overall line started slipping and he was demoted to the pen. When healthy, he’s the type of pitching prospect that I like – good sinker, can run a 4-seamer in there in the mid-90’s, a plus curve, and has a change/slider in the backpocket. Every time I look at his numbers over at minorleaguesplits, it gets me more befuddled in some respects, because overall, statistically, he’s had a pretty solid season. I’m glad the Cubs gave him a chance to start. and I hope he gets another shot to start next year.

Biggest disappointment to me is probably Jovan Rosa, a guy I was really high, too high (which I fully admit) on. He had such a sweet swing when it was on, and he had some power potential. Sure, the glove was iffy, and the K/BB was bad, but I hoped it would improve. He got injured early, then struggled with his swing. When he got demoted, they basically said he was having the same swing problems as Flaherty, and that Rosa was trying to go for too many HR’s. He’s bounced back again in Peoria, and he’s still young enough, but with his future likely at first, he has to take a big stride next year, IMO.

Another befuddling guy is Brandon Guyer. Some bad luck in AA, although not enough to make any sort of excuse, and he’s gotten a bit untracked in Daytona, but showing no power. It’s a bit disconcerting, as without power, he loses a ton of value.

Welington Castillo’s glove, according to some things, has improved. I’m still intrigued enough with him, and his bat got a bit better as the season progressed. Adjusting his line for park and luck and you get a pretty decent line.

by toonsterwu on Aug 19, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Current List

1) 3B Josh Vitters – Great handle on the zone, but very aggressive on pitches in it. Needs to lay off on pitchers’ pitches in the zone. Health also a concern. Still, he should be a Top 50 prospect in baseball come the offseason because of his hitting tools, production in MWL, age, and ability to stick at 3B. B+

2) P Jay Jackson – Excellent repertoire of pitches, very good control and command, and still has some upside left. B+

3) P Andrew Cashner – The only things that bug me about him are his health (strained oblique coming into the season) and ability to stay in the rotation over the long haul (problem he had in college). Otherwise, his changeup has come a long way this season and his FB and slider are plus pitches. B+

4) SS Starlin Castro – Considering he was named top defensive SS in the FSL by BA, errors are not an issue to me. Low BBs are a concern, but he doesn’t K much, either. Still has room to add muscle, to boot. B/B+

5) P Chris Carpenter – Middle of the rotation stuff, scary health history. Liking his production in AA, though. B/B-

6) OF Brett Jackson – Seeing him in person eased a lot of my fears. He’s aggressive at the plate, but not an idiot. His swing needs a bit more work, but he’s fast and has surprising power to all fields. Very good defensively, too. If he can make it through the FSL in one piece, he’ll be poised for a huge breakout. B-

7) SS Hak-Ju Lee – Defensively fluid, good eye at the plate, good hitting skills. Needs some more power and experience in full season ball, though. B-

8) P Ryan Searle – Love the sinker and the fact that he was 19 for much of the season in the FSL. Still needs work on his secondary stuff and his attitude. C+

9) IF Ryan Flaherty – Defensively competent at three positions (2B/SS/3B) and hitting the ball really well in the second half of the season. Still, he’s a touch on the old side for the MWL. C+

10) OF Kyler Burke – Five tool OF who’s finally producing in the MWL in his third go-round. He’s age appropriate, strangely enough. Need to see him keep this up, though, if I want to be sold on him. C+

Others receiving consideration: P Dae-Eun Rhee (finally healthy, excellent potential), P Jeff Beliveau (reminds me of Rich Hill in good and bad ways), P Casey Coleman (polished with a great attitude, but not a very high upside), P Chris Archer (control is a concern, but he’s handled Peoria very well)

by Outshined_One on Aug 19, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Searle doesn't deserve to be on there

I would actually consider myself a fan of his, but 57 K’s in 100 innings is simply not going to get it done. Could be a decent back of a rotation guy with the ground balls, but the upside and performance are not quite there

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Aug 20, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wait

Upside and performance aren’t there? I admit, I’m not the biggest Searle fan, as some know (although I’ve come around on him as a top 15 player in the Cubs system). But

a) Upside – Raw kid with a live arm who has supposedly gotten in better shape. Hows the upside not there? He should gain a bit more velocity, and his secondary pitches, one would imagine, has a chance of getting better.

b) Performance – this one’s debatable. Overall, his numbers are iffy, but for a youngster, one of the youngest in the FSL (at one point, he was, I think, he was one of the top 10 youngest, not sure if he still is right now), with minimal baseball experience before coming stateside, I think his performance has been quite solid actually. Certainly, I can understand the opposing argument – his numbers have been sort of smoke and mirrors a bit, but I’m also one to believe that there is probably a bit of over-analysis on minor league statistics (which I am prone to do as well).

by toonsterwu on Aug 20, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In terms of performance…

-5 HRs given up in over 100 IP
-.292 BABIP suggests his luck is roughly in line with what it should be
-59.4%/10.1%/27% split on GO/LD/FO is quite good

I don’t think he’s gotten by on smoke and mirrors, especially considering the defense he has had playing behind him. He’s done an excellent job of limiting extra base hits and HRs.

Yeah, his secondary stuff needs work, but someone his age showing excellent ground ball rates and the ability to keep the ball in the park deserves recognition. Plus, as I’ve mentioned before, after the Top 7 in this system, there’s a glut of C+/C guys who could fill the last three spots depending on what you favor. I think Searle is in the same league as them.

by Outshined_One on Aug 20, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as the HR's

Daytona and the FSL is very pitcher friendly.

I would put Gaub up there, who has a 1.86 era between AA and AAA. His periphs are solid too, with a K/BB of 67/27 in about 54 innings

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Aug 20, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

top 10?

I dunno if I could ever put a LOOGY top 10. A lefthanded pen arm – perhaps, but only if that guy profiles as a setup/closer type. Gaub has some borderline setup potential, but he’s really more a situational profile, and our system is improved enough that, for me, I couldn’t justify putitng a LOOGY in the top 10. That said, again, that’s me.

by toonsterwu on Aug 20, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The FSL is very pitcher-friendly, but my memory is that the Daytona Cubs play in the most hitter-friendly park in the league.

I could be mistaken on that one, though.

by Outshined_One on Aug 20, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's up there

case could be made for charlotte, maybe dunedin. There’s another team that was hitter friendly, but I don’t recall right now. Actually, I’m not real sure why the FSL is considered a pitcher friendly league anymore. A lot of the parks are fairly neutral, with a couple above and a couple below. It’s actually pretty balanced.

by toonsterwu on Aug 21, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else think that Cashner could overatke Vitters at #1....

It is looking more and more that Cashner’s floor is as as dominant relief pitcher which is impressive in its own right. Loving his three pitch mix, although his delivery is questionable.

by soccerman0 on Aug 20, 2009 1:07 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m admittedly biased against relief pitchers, but the only way Cashner can overtake Vitters in my mind (assuming Vitters doesn’t collapse impressively/have a bad injury/etc) is if Cashner can prove he can stick at starting pitcher. Dominant relief pitchers are much easier to come by than quality third basemen.

by Outshined_One on Aug 20, 2009 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what he said

I think we have to wait another year … I imagine we’ll know by next year what Cashner’s future is. I could see a Papelbon like path for him – shows starting ability, gets called up for the pen and ends up closing and sticking there.

by toonsterwu on Aug 20, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My Current Top 10

1. 3B Josh Vitters
2. RHP Andrew Cashner
3. SS Starlin Castro
4. RHP Jay Jackson
5. SS Hak-Ju Lee
6. RHP Chris Carpenter
7. OF Brett Jackson
8. RHP Dae-Eun Rhee
9. OF Kyler Burke
10. IF Ryan Flaherty

HM: IF DJ LeMahieu, RHP Chris Archer, LHP Jeffry Antigua

by Raisin on Aug 20, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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