King Billy Royal VS Dewey Finn - Ranking the Firstbasemen
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2009 1:48 PM EDT
166 comments
Dewey Finn and King Billy Royal have decided to rank the best players at each position in the minor leagues. However, after spending days trying to come to a consensus, both men agreed that this attempt was futile. Therefore, King Billy Royal and Dewey Finn have decided to go head to head and let the community decide who has chosen the better players at each position. To begin we will examine the top catching prospects.
The following are some important notes regarding the criteria we used to determine who is eligible:
*Current prospects at the Major League level were not taken into consideration.
*Rankings on the assumption that the player will remain at their current position long-term.
*Rankings done according to the position the player is currently playing in the minor leagues, and not necessarily the projected future position (i.e. Montero at catcher instead of first).
*Some of the prospects have been re-evaluated since the release of the DF & KBR Top 25 list.
DEWEY FINN:
1. Justin Smoak (TEX) – Possesses everything you want in a first baseman.
2. Yonder Alonso (CIN) – A guy who knows what to do at the plate, future All-Star.
3. Brandon Allen (ARZ) – Athletic 1B reminds me a lot of a young Derrek Lee.
4. Ike Davis (NYM) – Breakout season justifying his 1st round selection in 2008.
5. Chris Carter (OAK) – Should become a BIG-TIME run producer, Ryan Howard-esque?
KING BILLY ROYAL:
1. Justin Smoak (TEX) – Reminds me of Mark Texiera
2. Yonder Alonso (CIN) – The reason Votto moves to the OF in 2011
3. Chris Carter (OAK) – I thought he was an all or nothing hitter. I was 100% wrong.
4. Logan Morrison (FLA) – Ability to hit .300 with 20+ homeruns.
5. Freddie Freeman (ATL) – His power is down this year but he can be Robin to Heyward’s Batman.
4 recs |
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am i missing something
yonder alonso has had maybe 300 ABs so far as a professional. he hasn’t even played a game since june, so i’m scratching my head wondering what he’s done to be on this list, in the first place, but to be 2nd on each list? shouldn’t he at least have to be on the field?
also, not all black 1Bmen are ryan howard.
one more thing, logan morrison is clearly the best 1B prospect in baseball. smoak is good, but morrison is a flat beast.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
1st
Am I the only one tired of the Carter-Howard comparisons? It seems at this point the only things they have in common are being big and black.
Second, I love the Alonso/Morrison love, KBR. Big believer in both.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how is ranking Morrison behind Carter and Alonso considered love?
after the C rankings, not at all surprised that Morrison didn’t make Dewey’s list. because Dewey hates guys with good scouting reports, who produce actual results.
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morrison has dropped off a lot of people's lists
So seeing him ranked at all is somewhat surprising to me. I agree with him being behind both Carter and Yonder.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what has he done to deserve this?
and i guess alonso playing twice in the GCL in the past 2 months has rocketed him up the charts, yes?
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not much, I suppose
But I still think his skill set is very good and he’ll eventually turn that into major success. This guy was touted as having one of, if not the best bats in the draft last season, and I still believe he has that ability.
So no, I don’t have much to back it up, I’m just a big fan. Dude can hit.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where has Morrison been dropping on lists?
He was #10 on BA’s midseason ranking, and was #10 and #14 in the quick and dirty “aggregate” rankings that Galt and DenverBears compiled here last week.
by jibs on Aug 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's probably just selective memory
Just remember seeing lots of negative comments about him in the last month or so.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you serious?
you think the only similarities between Howard and Carter are that they are big and black?
here is a few more…
-big time power
-drive in a ton of runs
-a lot of strikeouts
-decent amount of walks
-below average defense
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter
Is much more athletic, strikes out less, and walks a lot more. Howard is an all or nothing hitter, Carter isn’t close to being that.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Replies
Since Howard has been in the majors he has walked in 56.3% of games he has played. Carter has walked in 52.3% of his games. How exactly does he ‘walk a lot more’?
Howard does strike out more but a major factor is because he is facing major league pitching. In the minors Howard struck out 585 times in 1853 at bats (31.6%). Carter has stroke out 531 times in 1968 at bats (27.0%). As you can see these numbers are very close as well.
Also, I have read reports stating that Carter was already really big for his position and was not that much of an athelete. Where did you read that he is much more athletic then Howard?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I was going off mainly this year, because I think Carter is much closer to what he’s shown this year than what he showed last year, which is where I got walks more/K’s less than Howard. I simply believe he’ll make contact much more consistently than Howard.
Nearly every report on Carter’s defense I’ve read says that the problem is his hands, but that he’s a very athletic player and has ok range. He’s not a slow, lumbering slugger by any means, as evidenced by his 12 stolen bases this year.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know this is crazy
but I’m pretty sure people might want to consider the fact that if a guy K’s a crapload in the minors, it’s going to be even worse in the majors, just a thought, I mean apparently the rangers didn’t get that memo with the mohawked one
by IHateMitchMustain on Aug 20, 2009 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's funny
Carter has K’ed in about 24% of ABs this year, while Smoak is at 21%, but Carter K’s a “crapload” while Smoak doesn’t.
Good to know. Where exactly is the cutoff point?
And yes, I’m aware of his previous years, but aside from last year, his K rate hasn’t been that bad at all. I really believe that his 2008 was a result of him just swinging for the fences too much, especially in those last couple months. He’s really not a super impatient insanely high-K guy.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 22, 2009 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
um
In the minors Howard struck out 585 times in 1853 at bats (31.6%). Carter has stroke out 531 times in 1968 at bats (27.0%). As you can see these numbers are very close as well.
The same way a .270 batting average is “very close” to a .316 batting average? In baseball terms, a 4% difference is pretty big.
by slamcactus on Aug 20, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ryan howard is taller, stronger, and left handed. plus his defense is better (he just can't throw. and he was kinda fat for a while, which hurt him, but he's a very good defender right now, though he still can't throw.)
also, howard has pure 80 power, whereas carter, i think is more in the 65-70 range. carter also seems to be a little thicker and less athletic (whereas howard, right now, and back when he first came up (again, with the potbelly stage in the middle), is lithe, lean, and naturally more fluid).
yeah, they might both be black and they might both be big power hitters. and they might both play 1B, but they aren’t nearly the same player.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hm...
Ryan Howard is 6’4", 260 (phillies.mlb.com). Carter is 6’4", 225 (milb.com).
Yeah, Howard is taller, while Carter is a little thicker and less athletic. Do you even know what Carter looks like? He’s certainly leaner, lither than Howard is.
compared to…
Also, a lot of scouting reports have indicated that Carter’s fairly athletic, and has a good arm, he’s just slow. FWIW, since the A’s acquired Wallace, Carter’s been playing more and more in the OF.
If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.
by NateHST on Aug 18, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter isn't slow
As you say he’s actually quite athletic. His fielding troubles are entirely b/c of bad hands.
by alskor on Aug 18, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW though
They look EXACTLY alike facial-wise.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's kidding you chode
Good stuff, aCone.
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by Frederick0220 on Aug 18, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one can be athletic
and still be slow. See: Cal Ripken Jr., Lou Bordreau, Albert Pujols
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
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by harendaman365 on Aug 19, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shaq
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ryan howard isn't 260 lbs
and i’m also pretty sure chris carter isn’t 6’4".
i’ve also noticed that about carter playing both LF and RF. right now, it’s just something to watch. i’m pretty sure he’ll be a decent fielder wherever he winds up, if he’s given enough time to play there. i’m not trying to sell short his tools, i’m just trying to say ryan howard is an exceptional case, and he should not be used as a comp. ever.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the guy has bad hands
but i’m glad that YOU believe he will be a pretty decent fielder, i promise, he won’t be
by IHateMitchMustain on Aug 20, 2009 4:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Can I borrow YOUR crystal ball?
It really baffles me….people have raised questions about VCC all along the way, and he’s answered them, which is why I’m not sure why people say anything definitive about possible future shortcomings anymore.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 22, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um
Where do you get 65-70 power? Almost every scout will tell you that Carter is a true 80 power-wise.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i've got no idea about the average or the plate discipline, but
i’m pretty sure chris carter’s peak is gonna have him hitting for chipper jones like power. he’ll have a ton of years hitting between 21 and 38 HRs, and maybe 1 year of hitting in the mid 40s, but he’s never gonna have that prince fielder/ryan howard type of outlier season. he’s not gonna hit 50, he’s not gonna hit 58. so, no, he doesn’t have true 80 power.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well that settles that.
I need youre help for my fantasy team.
by SuperBean on Aug 18, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the funny thing about that
the history of my team is here. this year, i’ve got the best record in the NL, and i’m 5 games up on my nearest competitor. i’ve also got a ton of talent waiting in the wings (kyle gibson, tanner scheppers, radhames liz (still), tyler flowers, chris carter, logan forsythe, eric patterson, everth cabrera, michael taylor, jaff decker, and a few more). basically, i’m freaking excellent at seeing things like this, and i stockpile talent like noone’s business.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
A fantasy baseball league says nothing about your foresight. Success can be accomplished easily depending on…
1. The amount of teams
2. The rules
3. Level of Competition…
The list goes on. I know people who have a comparable list of prospects on their team, it doesn’t take rocket science to play within the rules. If you were to tell me you drafted Chris Carter when he was drafted, then give yourself a pat on the back. Wow, you have a guy like Scheppers on your team? The kid has been a top arm for around 3 years, you scouted him out all by yourself? Logan Forsythe was drafted 48th overall!!
You have nothing excellent. Nothing.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
we've been over this.
i play 1 league. there are 30 teams, 30 owners. i inherited my team in 2005, at which point, this was the roster i took over. there is absolutely nothing coincidental about the success i’ve had this year. i’ve taken advantage of a few things (namely salary dumps in which i acquired todd helton, carlos beltran, david dejesus, and troy glaus), but my instincts turned this team around and my foresight will keep it at the top of the league for a decade.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
do your instincts and foresight
also help make you so charming?
by gogotabata on Aug 18, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you for your contribution to this thread
go crawl in a hole and die.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And once again
You have accomplished nothing. Not a single player has been discovered by you. Wow really, you figured out that after Chris Carter bombed 39 HR to pick him up? Nice….
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Metty,
I actually had Carter 2 years ago in your league before it folded, does that mean I had foresight? I want to be like variables!
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Aug 19, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hahahahahaha
that league had potential… to many bad owners who weren’t really from this site though.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 20, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be down to start another one.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 20, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I borrow your crystal ball?
I wanna know if it’s official that I get to marry Megan Fox.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ugh.
you’ve got no idea about that.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And there's no way
You can definitively say what you did about CC.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE:80 Power
Post Steriod Era, what defines 80 power?
The only players to hit 50+ “without” juice today are Howard, Price, and lets assume Albert. Is it fair to assume that having 80 power means one must hit 50 HR? Shouldn’t 80 power mean the top SDs? If the average player in baseball hit 10 HR, but the league leader had 30, wouldn’t 28-30 be 80 power?
You’ll have a hard time convincing me that one must hit 50+ HR to have 80 power.
In 2008, Howard lead the league with 48. Does he not have 80 power? The next two were Dunn and Delgado at 40, and 38? Do they not have 80 power? Braun had 37, does he not have 80 power? If you answer is no, I would love a detailed response why. But realistically it should be an easy yes, against the pool of professional baseball talent.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i believe the 20-80 scale is based upon standard deviations
so, 60 is 1 SD above normal, 70 is 2, and 80 is 3 SDs above normal. that’s interpreted loosely.
so, if the top HR hitter tops out at 36 HRs, that doesn’t mean he has 80 power, it just means he’s the best that year.
80 power is rare air. it doesn’t just mean you lead the league, it means you absolutely decimate it.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What I was saying is
That several scouts have said that he is a true 80 on the power scale. Who the hell are you to refute this?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who the hell am i?
i’m just someone who believes those scouts don’t know what the hell 80 power really means.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well first
You’re arguing semantics, and second, again, who are you to tell everyone else what 80 power really does mean?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In addition to that
Who are you to say Carter doesnt have 80 power, according to what you think it means? Have you personally and extensively scouted him?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Instead of being a bitch about it
Why not find where a scout has said that Carter has “true 80 power”. I sure haven’t seen it.
VD (huh huh, he said VD) is right about what the general rankings on the scouting scale means. An 80 in anything means that you’re in the 99th percentile of major leaguers in that attribute. It’s very rare to see a prospect graded as an 80 in anything.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein says it
which youre probably already aware. His opinions are formed by talking to scouts… anyway, here is the quote again:
Carter’s power is a pure top-of-the-scale 80. He hits home runs to all fields, doesn’t need to fully square up a ball to hit it out, and is capable of jaw-dropping shots when he pulls the ball. He works the count well and knows which pitches he can drive.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8551
Fwiw, he doesnt toss it around much either.
by alskor on Aug 19, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I just came here to do so
But alskor beat me to it.
Heh, wasn’t it you that said last year that Carter would be hitting .220 with 20 homers in AA? Of course, we can’t predict the future, but one of the reasons I’m so hyped about Carter is that he’s proved nearly all of the skeptics wrong.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 19, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't remember saying that, but it doesn't mean I didn't
I’ve never been particularly high on Carter. Haven’t been following him too closely this year though.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Various comments
I do love me some search function.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
Boston’s Chris Carter does have a .779 OPS in AAA. That’s not so terrible. And he’ll only be 27 in a few weeks!
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 25, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ryan howard
defines “80 power” how on earth could you argue that, it’s power, not production
by IHateMitchMustain on Aug 20, 2009 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't be so modest.
You’re the guy with the kickass fantasy team, too.
Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.
by walk off bunt on Aug 25, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where are you getting that from?
Its a scouting term of art and has nothing to do with standard deviations, afaik…
Thats an interesting way to define power, but isnt the industry norm at all.
Perhaps if you want to make a scale for power like that you shouldnt use the 20-80 “scouting scale.”
by alskor on Aug 18, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alskor
It does in a way, it is a bell curve.
80 – Elite
70
60
50 – Average
40
30
20 – Awful
not mathematically though
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
but using a 20-80 scale leads to confusion b/c it implies scouting based observation. It doesnt normally refer to standard deviations of performance, just relative strength of tools. I also believe scouts typically scale their ratings over years of performance, not to each year. So, yes, in some years they may not find a prospect with true 80 power (although it would be exceptionally rare). There is also typically a distinction between “raw” power and “game” power.
What other field normally uses a 20-80 scale? I dont know of any…
by alskor on Aug 18, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The SAT
200 to 800. It’s supposed to be the same curve, theoretically.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KG said
Grades are given on a base-5 system (40, 45, 50, 55, 60, etc.)…A score of 50 is major-league average, 60 is above-average (also referred to as "plus"), and 70 is among the best ("plus-plus"). 80 is top of the charts, and not a score that gets thrown around liberally. 80s in any category are rare, and the scoring system is definitely a strong curve that regresses to around 50 at the major league level, but lower as you move down. Very few players have a 50 score or higher for every tool. Just being average across the board is quite an accomplishment.
It isn’t a mathematical curve as KG says here. Because the majority of players are below average. However, it is absolutely a curve, where the range of 80 represents elite power regardless of what number of HR end up being hit out. Again, go back to the examples above. Can one say that these league leaders/top tier players, not have 80 power because of a hypothetical threshold? I say no. They absolutely do.
The term standard deviation is probably not a good term for this though.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heres the problem
The people being graded aren’t being graded against the pool in which they exist.
So player A, isn’t being graded against all professional baseball players (including minor league players). If he were, average would be defined by the average tool (lets say power) of all professional leagues. Instead, player A is being graded against his ability and potential in a pool of major league talent, where 50 represents the average major league player’s tool(or power).
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Very few players have a 50 score or higher for every tool."
Dom Brown does :-)
i quoted this in my list thread, but i don’t think many saw it because it happened a few days later. but Ben Badler said this in a recent BA chat.
just don’t see what’s not to like about Brown. He’s got five tools that mostly rate as 60s or 70s, either now or in the future, with advanced pitch recognition, and he’s performed well this year.
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Standard deviation is a decent proxy for it though
If you looked at all the grades that get given out to major league level players, it would probably fall somewhere along those lines. Even a 75 grade is extraordinarily uncommon. For example, Desmond Jennings runs faster than Carl Crawford, but the scouting grades I’ve seen on him still only rate him as a 70 in speed.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
But if the top power hitter his 36 HR, than he is the top SD….
In 1975, Reggie Jackson hit 36 HR to lead the AL, did he not have 80 power?
A year prior, Mike Schmidt hit 36 HR to lead the MLB, did he not have 80 power?
The top SD is 80 as you said, regardless of the number of HR that went out.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
So Mike Schmidt and Reggie Jackson, number 13 and 14 on the all time Home Run list don’t have 80 power.
Excuse the language, but go fuck yourself.
They have 7 players in head of them from Modern Steroid Era. So if you take those 7 out they are 2 of the best HR hitters of all time.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE
13 and 14 is after Thome passes him.
And the end was supposed to say, 2 of the top 7.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"The top SD is 80 as you said, regardless of the number of HR that went out."
that is flat wrong. you do not understand the concept of a standard deviation. it does not mean what you think it means.
well, i’m not your math teacher, so, same to you.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually I understand it very well
How isn’t the top of the chart, be it a bell curve or any other chart the absolute highest grade?
Its like saying you scored a 100 out of 100 on a test but you aren’t in the highest SD.
For a given year, a player who has the most HR is the top of the chart. 80 power is a grade given to a tool, if the top hr hitters of all time don’t grade out to an 80, then no one does.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on the test...
If it’s a test where 16% of people score 100, then you are likely only 2 SD from the mean if you score 100 (assuming scores are normally distributed). So that would be a 70, not an 80 on this scale.
If talent is normally distributed, by definition, 1 in 740 people would be 3 standard deviations above the mean. When you consider that there were 633 position players who received at bats in the majors last year, you might expect in most years for there to be 1 who is an 80 in any given tool. At some times there may be 2 or 3. In some years there may be none.
This fits in pretty well with how the 80 grade is used by scouts. It means the very best in the game. An 80 tool should even rank amongst the best in history. And it’s about talent, not performance. Leading the league in HR one year doesn’t give you 80 power. Most league leaders likely have 70 power. Of the guys you mentioned above, Braun and Delgado certainly aren’t better than 70 power. Delgado probably was an 80 at his peak (ages 26-28). Howard and Dunn I think are currently true 80.
Keep in mind 70 is “plus plus”. 80 is significantly better than that.
by acerimusdux on Aug 22, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You do realize that this is a tautology, right?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
exaggeration
I doubt every scout scout will give him a true 80; do you realize how rare it is for one scout to give that out, much less all of them? BA, for instance, reported him as a having “plus-plus raw power”, i.e. 70, but not even a “game 70,” just a raw 70. That’s obviously still excellent, as 70s are rare enough by themselves.
I know KG drops the 80 on him constantly, but imo he tends to exaggerate quite often when using the 20-80 scale. In his OAK top 11 last year, I counted 4 players with at least one 70+ tool (and none of them were Brett Anderson), which is pretty unlikely.
by aCone419 on Aug 18, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good points
But if one assumes that Chris Carter in the major leagues was to hit say, 40 HR a year. That is 80 power. No? Look at the numbers, Braun had 37 last year. Did he not have 80 power?
Ok, I’ll give you 75 ;)
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone who can hit forty home runs consistently probably has 80 PW, like say Adam Dunn. But:
a) Chris Carter hasn’t done that, so it isn’t exactly pertinent.
b) trying to assign scouting grades to statistical achievements strikes me as a fool’s errand.
by aCone419 on Aug 18, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Further
But who besides Adam Dunn hits 40 homers a year? Not very many (anyone?).
Some scouts won’t give ANYONE an 80 grade. It is exceedingly rare and I don’t think that is a given that someone in the league will have 80 power. A 70 already means a player has almost otherworldly power. To get an 80 a player needs to have almost unique power.
by aCone419 on Aug 18, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the only peerson to ever have 80 power is
babe ruth
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2009 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunno - Roy Hobbs could hit the ball pretty hard
by DeJay on Aug 19, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesus
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd like to add one more thing
i understand that the 20-80 scale wasn’t created as a proxy for standard deviations, but i feel it lends itself quite well to the adaptation.
b) trying to assign scouting grades to statistical achievements strikes me as a fool’s errand.
that is truth.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 18, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Variablesdont...
Your not the same guy that wrote a thread last year about comparing power hitters and their stolen bases in the minor leagues leading to future major league success were you? Specifically Ryan Howard and his minor league stolen base numbers?
by AthleticsReign on Aug 18, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed w/ B
I was trying to make the point that it isn’t about the number of HR, but rather the top of the pool. 40 being the number that signified the top of the pool of HR hitters.
A better example would be 2001. Bonds hit 73 HR, obviously he has 80 power. Manny Ramirez was 10 spots lower and he hit 41. He obviously is the top tier of power hitters and an 80 power guy. 19th on that list was Albert Pujols at 37, does Albert not have elite (80) power because he didn’t get to some hypothetical number?
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if Manny or Pujols really have 80 power
I’d be more inclined to say they both have 70/80 hit tools to go with 70 power. That’s debatable of course, and I certainly agree that we shouldn’t make that judgment based of the fact that he only hit X number of HR in a given year.
80 power (to me, at least, from what I’ve read) doesn’t mean “top tier of home run hitters.” A guy with “just” 70 power should still be in the top class of home run leaders, assuming he has a good enough hit tool, and periodically lead the league. An 80 tool (save for fastball velo and speed) is basically impossibly rare. I find it pretty unlikely that there are going to be 5 guys with true 80 power in the majors at any given time.
Brady Anderson hit 50 homers one year. But he really only had 50/55 power. That’s a cherry picked example, obviously, but what I mean is that someone can feasibly lead the league in HR without having 80 power by being a great pure hitter with just good power. And in the inverse, a player with 70/80 power might never even sniff the HR leaderboard due do to crappy a hit tool/plate discipline (some one like Ryan Harvey, for example).
Summary: The “power” tool doesn’t necessarily correlate with HR, and shouldn’t be aligned with statistics, whether they be raw, percentiles or tiers.
by aCone419 on Aug 19, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn
He is a guy that jumps out to me as 80 power potential. When he hits one you know it is gone.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: 80 power
I disagree, I don’t think the rating of a tool is in a bubble. From era to era, 80 power isn’t a consistent raw grading for player. It needs to be in the context of the pool of players.
Again, as you just stated there isn’t a formula for this stuff. Its all opinion.
But, I don’t think it is impossibly hard to have such a tool. What purpose does that really serve? In the end, the 80 power grading is reserved for the elite power/elite power potential. From era to era there are different variations of elite power.
Guys who I think have 80 power playing today are pretty abundant, Braun, Pujols, Dunn, Fielder, Howard, A-Rod, Vlad, Ortiz, Pena, Bruce… I’m sure I can find more. But again, the difference is that minor leaguers are being compared to those I just listed, not to each other. Its about their potential to be a “slugger”. To me, is there really a difference between 80 or 70? Its only within the context of comparison. If Stanton is an 80, then Heyward/Montero/Santana is 75? Because we need to preserve the eliteness of an 80 grade? I’m not sure if I buy that. I think it is more about projecting them as major league power hitters.
But again it is all objective.
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by Metty5 on Aug 19, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guys who I think have 80 power playing today are pretty abundant,
That’s wrong in my opinion. There are scouts who won’t use an 80 grade on anyone, so to think that there are currently double digits of players that fit that description seems improper.
To me, is there really a difference between 80 or 70
There is a very real difference. That’s why you typically see scouts giving out 80s with extreme frugality. It basically means “I cannot imagine a player having more power than this player.”
I think what you are describing above is 70 power. Plus plus (70) power is extremely rare its own self, and a player with 70 “game” power can realistically be expected to compete for home run titles.
by aCone419 on Aug 19, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hamilton, nelson cruz
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Aug 22, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
Not really true. Both are mediocre defensively, both have 80 power tools, and both strike out a lot while walking at good but not league-leading rates.
They’re pretty comparable, and I say that as someone who hates the “players must be compared to players of the same race” thought process.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter-Howard
Of course the blackness contributes to everyone’s comp, but I think their similar in terms playing in five ways:
1) High power
2) High Ks
3) Good athleticism
4) First basemen
5) Batting Average all over the place
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 20, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm...
Who stated that the comparison was being made between Carter and Howard because they are black first basemen? Personally, I don’t think KBR was making that comparison because of the type of player they are and the potential upside of Carter. To try to dismiss his argument with a cheap ‘race shot’ is fairly disingenuous.
by McClutch on Aug 18, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dewey made the comparison
And I gave legit reason for why I thought that was the only reason. I don’t believe it’s a fair comp at all for VCC.
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Aug 18, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KBR's list for me
though I would put Alonso #5 of those listed.
by MightyMoose on Aug 18, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I really struggled with 2 to 4
I constantly shuffled my 2 to 4 picks but Freeman was always the # 5 guy.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya
I can see most of them being inter-changeable in those rankings, though I would personally have Allen ahead of Alonso right now.
by MightyMoose on Aug 18, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I would go
1) Smoak
2) Carter
3) Allen
4) Alonso
5) Morrison
Not sure who to vote for, given that… I think Im voting KBR again, mostly on the inclusion of Ike Davis on Dewey’s list.
I think Dewey’s #4 selection is again going to lose him this poll, just like Thole did the last one. I like Ike (pun intended), and I dont think its anywhere near as controversial as the Thole pick. Chris Carter has some indicators that worry me, but he’s been such a stud this year I think the average poster here will see Carter below Ike and immediately vote for KBR…
by alskor on Aug 18, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me add
I like Dewey’s list and love the aggressive ranking of Allen. I can completely see the argument for it, and its perfectly defensible… I just disagree a bit.
by alskor on Aug 18, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Dewey's list too
Execpt for Ike Davis. Who I might put at #6 and move Freeman in the mix.
by AthleticsReign on Aug 18, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, nobody likes the Mets farm, huh.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alonso is a platoon player
I think everyone on here agrees he is not the #2 1b prospect. I like him, and I guess I can somewhat make sense of the ranking. But I honestly think Morrison, Carter, and possibly Allen are better
by Mets2k9 on Aug 18, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i have him 3 spots above carter on my list
i’d switch them now if i could do it over.
Smoak [barely over LoMo… where is the power?]
Morrison
Carter
Alonso
Freeman
Allen [wasn’t that great before the trade]
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
every player has their flaws
but i wuold go with
Carter
Smoak
Allen
Morrison
Alonso
Freeman
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh i forgot ike davis
he is after alonso and before freeman
carter
smoak
allen
morrison
alonso
freeman
…
…
…
..
.
lars anderson
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha i forgot davis again
carter
smoak
allen
morrison
alonso
Davis
freeman
…
…
…
..
.
lars anderson
by matthewmafa on Aug 18, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Yonder Alonso
The reason I have him ranked at #2 is because I think he is very comparable to Justin Smoak (who I ranked #1). Smoak gets the slight edge in power, and Alonso gets the slight edge in batting average. Both should be high OBP 1Bs and drive in a lot of runs in the middle of the order. Since Smoak plays above average defense, I felt he deserved #1 over Alonso.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RE: Ike Davis
I think people are sleeping on this kid and mostly because of his struggles last year during his debut has left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. His performance this year in Hi A and AA has made me a big believer in him and feel he is one of the best 1B in the minors.
Ike Davis
High A: .288/.376/.486/.863
Double A: .306/.389/.536/.925
For comparison’s sake…
Logan Morrison
Double A: .289/.432/.469/.902
Freddie Freeman
High A: .302/.394/.447/.841
Double A: .260/.320/.366/.686
For those of you who think that Morrison or Freeman are Top 5 worthy, I don’t understand why you guys don’t consider Ike Davis to be the same. His numbers are similar, if not better. Also, he has the power that you want from the 1B position.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He cannot hit lefites.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
That is an area that I hope Davis can improve.
Similarly though, Freeman can’t hit lefties either, and has less power than Davis.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right on this one.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 18, 2009 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
davis is 2 and a half years older than freeman. they are at the same level
his babip is over 100 points higher. [ie-he’s been lucky, and freeman’s been a bit unlucky]
his power has been nice…. his LD% is up, so Davis is on the upswing yes. but he has not passed up FF as a prospect/ not yet.
davis has also been striking out in 26% of his ABs in AA, and ff is at 10%. ideally, you’d think the older/more experienced guy would be better at that.
I imagine Dewey must look at surface numbers, flip out over guys with nice numbers who aren’t being talked about [and not being talked about by scouts/ba/writers, {bonus}!], then he considers them his “finds” and thinks that his lists will be sweet.
i think i’ve finally figured it out.
well, surface numbers are great. guys on hot streaks are great. but Freeman was ranked #11 on BA’s midseason top 25. Davis was nowhere to be found. Carlos Santana was #7, Thole was nowhere to be found. Logan Morrison was #10, Brandon Allen was nowhere to be found.
of course its fun having lists that look different, but sometimes you have to trust scouts and writers who have incredible resources and talk to scouts. and sometimes you have to look at advanced statistics to see if maybe some guy has been lucky for a couple months [Allen] compared to other guys who may have been unlucky for a couple months [Freeman].
but sometimes still, Dewey will list a guy like Yonder Alonso highly, a guy who has hardly played this year, so I imagine he does read scouting reports… and yet, still makes up some biases against some players for no apparent reason at all.
so i’m kind of done with the dewey lists. i’ll participate when there’s good debate, but i’ll try not to argue or tear down dewey’s lists directly, because its getting kind of pointless. the problem with this is quality control. it sucks when older members [who were great] no longer hang around because of the inanity of the arguments and processes around here. but i guess thats life. i miss wily mo
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with you
I miss guys like wily mo, bleedjaxblue, jphak, and probably others I’m forgetting. Quite a few quality voices aren’t heard from around here, and I think we’re all a little worse off because of it.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 19, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah yes, forgot jphak
and bleedjax, i do remember disagreeing with quite a few times. but heck, he did make some quality posts.
by daveh33 on Aug 19, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing 3/4 of hitters are righties
Carlos Pena can’t hit lefties either.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Aug 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pitchers
but I got ya. I think Ike Davis would kill to have the power Pena does. Pena is a true 3 outcome guy. However, Pena does have a 212 BA this season and a 247 last season. Davis walks, but not as much as Pena.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Brandon Allen
IMO, he does not get the attention that he deserves. He’s been raking all season long.
AA/AAA: .304/.375/.516/.891
What really impresses me is his ability to hit lefties: .322/.390/.512/.902
The White Sox are really gonna regret trading him for RP Tony Pena.
Dewey Finn = Dylan McKay, King Billy Royal = Zack Morris, RedSoxFaithful = Millhouse Van Houten, Paul Thomas = Steve Urkel, Galt = Screech Powers, Bravesin07 = Richard Stabone, Hero66 = Beavis, Slurve = Phoebe Buffay
by Dewey Finn on Aug 18, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"all season long" ? no.
his wOBA at AA birmingham was an alright .352
he moved on to AAA charlotte and was bleeping terrible in 61 AB. then he was traded
after the trade, he has been on fire, yes. in 150 PA, he has been raking, but that is far from “all season long”.
and I’m willing to bet Reno is a much friendlier ballpark than Charlotte. in those 150 PA in which he is raking, the home-road split is HUGE. .100 difference in ISOP. HUGE difference in BB% [from 15.3% to a pathetic 4.6%]. his BABIP at home is .400 and on the road its .273. his LD% and GB% are static. but huge difference in everything else. wOBA of .377 away, and .532 at home, just puts it all in perspective.
in Birmingham, he had a nice April, a really pedestrian May, and then lost all of his power in June
by daveh33 on Aug 18, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would go...
Smoak
Morrison
Alonso
Davis
Carter
by joegonzo on Aug 18, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ugh: King Billy Royal and Variablesdont
“Also, I have read reports stating that Carter was already really big for his position and was not that much of an athelete. Where did you read that he is much more athletic then Howard?”
“also, howard has pure 80 power, whereas carter, i think is more in the 65-70 range. carter also seems to be a little thicker and less athletic (whereas howard, right now, and back when he first came up (again, with the potbelly stage in the middle), is lithe, lean, and naturally more fluid).”
“and i’m also pretty sure chris carter isn’t 6’4”."
This is why internet “scouting” rocks. For those of us who HAVE seen Chris Carter in person (and yes I have, on many occasions), we would note that Carter is very athletic, has VERY good foot speed and is without a doubt 6’4" any maybe even a bit taller. I wouldn’t bet my salary on it, but Carter may very well be an inch TALLER than that. FREAKING A, people are saying the portly Howard is thinner than Carter and Carter isn’t 6’4"???? RYAN FREAKING HOWARD is more athletic than Chris Carter? That is absolutely ridiculous. It is obvious that you have never seen Chris Carter once.
Foot speed is not a problem with Chris Carter. He is actually quite above average in that category. Truth be told, it would be even faster if he were more NIMBLE on his feet. As far as width or waistline… Get out of here. Now. That is without a doubt one of the most uneducated things I have read.
by nobodyinparticular on Aug 18, 2009 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
When did I say Howard is more athletic?
I am just asking for his source about Carter’s athleticism. I don’t ever recall myself claiming that Howard is more athletic then Carter. All I am saying is that I do not necessarily believe that Carter is as athletic as the community believes. Asking for a source to confirm the community’s assertion seems quite reasonable.
I think the fact that I ranked him #3 (and considered him for #2) should show that I REALLY like Carter. I have never read that he is ‘quite above average’ in foot speed and am suprised to hear you make that claim. Please don’t lump me in with Variablesdont as I never questioned his waist line or said he wasn’t 6’4".
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 18, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Q for the two of you
The most accurate comp I’ve run across for Smoak is John Olerud. Agree? Disagree? Thoughts, recipes?
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 1:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Q is for everyone
Sorry if that seemed exclusive.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree to some degree
Every 1B prospect who hits for a high average, walks a lot and doesnt have plus plus power gets the Olerud comp. Olerud was a pretty unique player. Smoak will have more power, don’t be deceived by some minor league numbers, there is plenty of juice in Smoak’s bat.
by alskor on Aug 19, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i believe it too because the scouts say so
but he really isn’t showing too much this year. far as ISOP is concerned
by daveh33 on Aug 19, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what concerns me
The HR rate is lower than expected, and while that usually comes in time for players with his raw power, It’s not a given. He’s also struggled against lefties.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember
Adam LaRoche being compared to John Olerud and Mark Grace somewhere. I still dont get it
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
by harendaman365 on Aug 19, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eh
I’m a big fan of Olerud, but I see Smoak as having a bit more power
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
by harendaman365 on Aug 19, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just curious
Where would either of you put Villalona if you were to extend this list?
by Brendan Scolari on Aug 19, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm
He slipped my mind due to his injury. I would probably go as follows:
I would probably rank it:
1. Smoak
2. Alonso
3. Carter
4. Morrison
5. Freeman
6. Allen
7. Davis
8. Villalona
9. Anderson
10. Hosmer
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strieby
Where does Ryan Strieby rank in these lists? .302/.421/.551 is nothing short of impressive in the Eastern league. KG has even gone as far as calling this kid a stud. I’m just a little surprised that his name hasn’t come up as at least an outlier in this discussion.
by legger06 on Aug 19, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Justin Smaok = Mark Texeira?
You can say whatever you want with this lazy, unimaginative comp but Mark Texeira in the worst 157 AB’s of his life wouldn’t hit .236 at AAA ball.
1 Logan Morrison – 22 in a few days- Has shown great pure hitting ability in the FSL and in the AFL, controls the strike zone and all he hasn’t done is hit for real good power yet. Well, even if he doesn’t I don’t see ANY 1B prospect who is a “can’t miss” complete major league 1B so I might take Morrison first if I could pick.
2 Yonder Alonso – 22 and 4 months – Yonder’s minor league stats were only superficially mediocre. He was leading the FSL in RBI’s before his callup and was hitting the ball hard in AA before his injury. The hamate injury isn’t one that is serious and I don’t need to wait and see what he does when he completely heals to know what he can do. very close between he and Morrison for #1 for me.
3 Justin Smaok – 22 and 8 months – It’s not that I don’t like Smoak it’s just that I’ve always felt that opinion on who is better between he and Alonso should logically be basically 50/50 and it has been like- all Smoak, all the time on this site. The reasons for that, to me are mostly imaginary-
- Smoak’s completely IMAGINARY and mythical power edge
- Smaok is taller and cooler looking
- Smaok’s name is cool (well, so is Yonder Alonso)
- Smaok’s completely imaginary BIG edge over Alonso in defense (It doesn’t exist folks- its a fabrication)
- and now, to make it more irksome Smaok had a superficailly better start this season a better league for hitting, in a better park, with much better weather for hitting.
I should go with my gut on this one, which tells me that Alonso’s the best combination of talent, smarts, and dedication among these guys and probably will become an All-Star performer.
btw, I’d put Freddy Freeman – 20 in one month- 4th and Chris Carter- same age as Smoak- 5th and that one is close as well.
By the way, Brett Wallace. I think that Brett Wallace is a classic case of a guy who is athletically struggling at a position that is too tough for him and WHEN he moves to 1B his bat will play better AND he’ll be strong defensively as well – he is okay at 3b but just isnt suitable for that position. I’d put him right in the mix with Chris Carter and I think he’s a surer bet to hit consistently myself.
by casejud on Aug 19, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good post
just checking, you know LoMo [morrison] is in the AA southern league right? not sure if you just omitted it because you think he showed better “pure hitting ability” in the fsl/afl…
and Smaok? lol. is that a nickname you have for him or did i miss something.
and just an fyi, Logan Morrison will now be referred to as “LoMo”.
by daveh33 on Aug 19, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Morrison flops in the majors
Can we call him LoMo Saltado?
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by Brickhaus on Aug 19, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smaok
Naw D, I’m just a shitty typer- lol. I misspell Smoak almost every time I type it and go back and fix it. Sometimes i miss a few. Besides, it Smaok would kinda be a crappy nickname.
I do realize “Lo-Mo” is in the Southern League but, I was just commenting on the major reason most have doubts about him this year- his batting average there. I think with the way he hit in the FSL- the AFL – combined with his awesome improvements in controling the strikezone – make his average there misleading.
Basically i think if he replayed the season in the SL again, without the injury, he’d likely be hitting .330 or so and folks would look at him diffferently
by casejud on Aug 19, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he probably would be hitting ~.330 without that injury
… he is up to .284 right now… i know i know, not as impressive as Smaok’s .236 clip in AAA, but he’s trying
by daveh33 on Aug 19, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lol
No, not as impressive. I kinda feel bad for picking on Smoak for his average there. I really think he’ll turn it around but, bottom-line is major league ready, sure fire SUPERSTARS don’t hit like that at AAA and Mark Texeira at age 22 wouldn’t and didn’t.
I’m just tired of all the rediculous praise heaped on the guy. It’s annoying to me. Hey guys! You remember Alex Gordon?? You want to repeat the mistakes of the past?? Keep telling yourself that Justin Smaok is gonna breeze on into the big leagues without some struggles.
Disclaimer- lol- I like Alex Gordon and I think he was developing into a good player until getting injured and will bounce back fine next season.
by casejud on Aug 19, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak
Came back early from an injury. He was absolutely raking at AA before it.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool
Is he injured NOW?
Seriously, he was pretty good the whole time in AA though so, he doesn’t need excuses there. He could use a good one for the AAA preformance so far though- lol
by casejud on Aug 19, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Came back early, as I stated
He’s been great in August.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great?
.131 ISOP for a firstbaseman is great?
.393 SLG…. this is more Loney than Teixeira
by daveh33 on Aug 19, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, dude
The collective number is not relevant. It is skewed by injury. Since recovering, he’s been better. He’s a very solid hitter with tremendous plate discipline.
Take this into account as well; He’s in his first full minor-league season and is in AAA. That in itself is quite an accomplishment. His power tool graded out just as highly as Alonso’s and certainly more than Loney’s.
I find it funny that I’m having to argue both sides here; I’m sort of torn myself. But you’re jumping to conclusions on his power numbers. They’re not encouraging, but no reason to freak out.
by Conjunction on Aug 19, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not freaking out
i had him ranked 7th on my list.
i just don’t think he is the ‘next teixeira’ or the one ‘cant miss’ guy that people seem to be labeling him as.
the only Can’t Miss i see is Heyward.
by daveh33 on Aug 20, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on Heyward
’Can’t Miss’ is an objective term, though… for me, if Smoak puts up a career .820 OPS, he’s missed, although that would still make him a serviceable player. In this regard, he’s perhaps the most likely player on the list (beside Heyward and maybe Brett Wallace) to stay above that threshold. But every prospect has a great chance of being disappointing.
by Conjunction on Aug 20, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not only did he come back early
but IIRC he came back for a couple days, then returned to the DL.
by alskor on Aug 19, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is exactly wwhat i was thinking
i just didnt feel like writing it all
by matthewmafa on Aug 19, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine
1. Smoak
2. Morrison
3. Carter
4. Allen
5. ? – Freeman? Davis? Alonso? None have really impressed me enough to convince me which one actually deserves this ranking. They are all good, but not great. Each one has a major flaw.
by guru4u on Aug 19, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Morrison
Forgot to mention this in my initial post. Typically the last thing to come around when a hitter suffers a wrist injury is power. Couple that with the fact that he was in a death pool for power of a situation last year, and everyone is much more worried about his power output than they probably should be.
by guru4u on Aug 19, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at my Top 25:
3. Justin Smoak (TEX) 1B comp: Jason Bay at 1B
19. Logan Morrison (FLA) 1B comp: Derrek Lee
26. Chris Carter (OAK) 1B comp: Ryan Howard
So those are my top three.
#4: Yonder Alonso (CIN) comp: Andre Ethier at 1B
#5: Lars Anderson (BOS) comp: Paul Konerko
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 20, 2009 1:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay
Interesting; I like it.
by Conjunction on Aug 20, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good except for Lars Anderson.
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by squid92 on Aug 22, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Voted KB
but honestly, I don’t love either list.
Btw, I think you guys can stop posting the intro fluff about not agreeing … sounds like it’ll be the exception when you guys agree, as it should be.
Also, um … looks like you copied and pasted. Right now, it says top catching prospects in the intro paragraph. Just thought you should know. Have made that mistake before when copying and pasting.
by toonsterwu on Aug 20, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
relevant
DaveH (Savannah GA): Has Logan Morrison surpassed Smoak as the top 1B prospect in the game? I realize Smoak is immensely talented, and he frequently gets rave reviews from scouts, but his [power] numbers have not been that impressive. {I do realize he was injured, but so was LoMo}.
J.J. Cooper: If you ask three different scouts about Morrison, Smoak and Freddie Freeman, you may get three different answers. The best answer I have is that all three are excellent prospects, and if healthy, Yonder Alonso isn’t far behind that group either.
by daveh33 on Aug 21, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Allen
Was promoted and makes his debut for the snakes tonight. SO excited!
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by Dewey Finn on Aug 22, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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