Bargaining the Draft
Much has been made about this year's draft breaking the mold. Many prospect watchers and fans have called for an overhaul. In the end, only two first rounders Washington (Tampa Bay) and Purke(Texas) refused to sign contracts. Equal to the number that didn't sign last season (Cole with NYY and Crow with WAS). Crow has a different set of circumstances surrounding his deadline, but to date, he hasn't entered the 2010 draft pool yet.
Does the draft need to be reworked? Lets take a look.
There are varying view points on what the draft really is in place for. I believe it is a combination of two schools of thought. The first and more traditional concept is to help level the playing field. The second, is to keep salaries down by limiting draftees' options. As I said before, the answer lies in between these two scenarios.
Today, Major League Baseball has a slotting recommendation which, as we saw the 16th, means absolutely nothing. Teams willing to spend money will work the system (Tigers, Royals, Yankees, As, Red Sox) and teams who don't get left behind (Mets are an obvious one). Does the current system lead to the worst teams having a shot at the best players? Yes. Does it mean they'll end up signing them? No, and that could be why they are drafting so highly in the first place. How can a team like the Nationals take the 10th best player available, when they need to sign the best player for 15.67 million? They would/could need to make sacrifices like the Pirates did with Tony Sanchez.
The draft doesn't work in a bubble however. The international system and free agency are heavily correlated to the draft. So we'll need to account for that as well.
How do we fix the draft?
1. Draft Pick Signing Bonuses
In order to ensure that the best players end up on the worst teams I would institute a hard slotting system. Each draft position would be designated a dollar amount prior to the draft. One's first thought should be, why would the Union ever agree to such a thing? Its a bargaining situation, so the owners would have to give something up. Before I get into that though, lets round out the hard slotting system. Personally, I see the money being spread out throughout the slots a little more, to account for the players who are signing after round 5 for a million dollars. They money spent by an organization is less overall, because teams wouldn't be able to go over slot randomly and by 600%, but the slots would be slightly higher.
2. Move the draft back
Right now, the June draft is at the end of the college season. I'd move it back slightly to the All - Star break. Have the draft be the night of the futures game (or something). Trotting the players out and about could build some hype for the draft. It also allows teams to know exactly what they are drafting. They don't have to worry about players being used as a RP the day after a start, after they draft their rights. Maybe have a combine for the players that are in the draft pool.
3. Add in the International Players to the draft pool.
Have a overall draft with the international guys too. Doesn't it seem strange that 16 year old (really? these guys are 16?) showcase players have a market advantage over Americans born kids? This needs to be corrected and the scandals need to be cleaned up. Without the high money incentive to the bucones there could be less talent. But I see the teams taking their place with training facilities. Lots of secrecy could be involved with teams hiding talent from others so they can draft their own guys. Regardless if the latter of this idea happens, adding these players into the same draft pool will keep money in owner's pockets, while cleaning up the system.
4. What do the Owners change for the Union? Arbitration.
In order to keep the "outrageous" prices down in the draft, the Union would be agreeing to a hard slotting system which would lower the amount paid to amateur players. In return they'll ask for arbitration to be revamped. First, rather than three arbitration years at 40/60/80% of the player's perceived value, there will be four arbitration years at 20/40/60/80. This would result in just two minimum salary years, rather than an additional year of arbitration. What this does, is spread the money in the owners' pockets that would have been spent on draft to veteran major leaguers who actually make it to the "show". The new first year arbitration year will allow players to deserve to make money, to actually get it.
5. The Union wants a few more changes to arbitration. Service Clock
This is a tough one to change. Right now, the service clock starts when a player reaches the major leagues. Typically one gets to arbitration after his third year in the MLB, but there is also super two status. Super two players are players who've been in the MLB 86 games the previous year and are in the top 17% of players who've played 2 years in the league, but not three.
But, now we have a system where a player reaches arbitration after his second year. But that doesn't stop a team from prolonging that process. What the Union and owners agree to is if a player plays in 60 games in a season it is considered his full year of service time (including injuries, demotions, etc...but not the expanded roster period). What this accomplishes is greater pressure on teams to call up their players for a full season. If a team is going to wait until almost August to bring up a player who would help their team be in possible playoff contention, that something they'll have to answer to their fan base about.
6. Changing Free Agent Compensation
MLB wouldn't penalize teams for signing players. Each FA would be offered arbitration from their previous team like they are today. Decline the offer would mean the team has a window to sign the player on their own. Not offering arb at all means the team would not receive compensation for loosing said player. The new element is that a team wouldn't loose a pick for signing a player, rather a new pick would be created. Last season, the Yankees signed CC, Tex, and AJ and both Milwaukee and Toronto got screwed by a situation entirely out of their hands. Each FA will be evaluated and assigned a compensation pick(s), regardless of who signs them. The other element is the Juan Cruz situation. Cruz, after paying his dues in the MLB, wasn't really a FA, because which ever team signed him would lose their first rounder. This enables players to truly be free.
7. Trading Picks
This will add excitement. Period. While there are owners (maybe one in Florida) that could force their GMs to sell their picks to increase profits, it would destroy a team in the long run. Especially because they cannot go over slot later to compensate or sign international players.
Three Ideas/Modifcations
1. Instead of having a hard slotting system throughout, maybe have it from the 1s round on, forgetting the 1st round. The 1st would become an open round with no slots. This would increase the amount of trades in the first round and allow those exceptional players to get more money.
2. Like the idea above, this idea is gauged to the exceptional players. Each team could get one slot exemption that they could sign any player they drafted for any amount the team and player agree on.
3. Personally, I think the above is possible. However, I don't think that there should be a draft. I think each player should be able to choose his employer. This is radical, but if you graduate college, would you expect someone to come to your house and say, "pack up, we're moving cross country. Oh and by the way this is the only way for you to work in this field of work."
I hope you enjoyed.
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19 comments
Comments
Might be nitpicking
Teams willing to spend money will work the system (Tigers, Royals, Yankees, As, Red Sox) and teams who don’t get left behind (Mets are an obvious one).
I don’t know if it breaks down to simply being willing to spend. If the slotting system didn’t exist, I think the Mets would likely spend more, as they’ve been quick to throw money at international free agents. The issue is that they tend to avoid conflicts with the commissioner’s office, and, as such, don’t spend. So, while I suppose that is a “willingness to spend”, it’s more a matter of the Mets following the rules (which they shouldn’t do, because they’re barely rules in the first place), and other teams simply ignoring those rules.
by Fanon on Aug 18, 2009 2:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is simple
If you agree :
Teams who spend over slot have a higher rate of successful draft picks
Teams who do not spend over slot have a more difficult time having success with their draft picks.
The Mets don’t spend overslot on draft picks
Therefore the Mets will have a more difficult time having success with their draft picks.
This is true regardless of the reason they do not spend on the draft.
If you disagree with the first three premises, that’s a different story.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This shows its not just about not pissing off the League BTW
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1763
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's hard to base too much off one year's list
You’ll note that the two teams at the bottom of the list, the Rangers and the Mets, are the two teams with the most financial difficulties. It isn’t the CBA’s fault that the Wilpons lost hundreds of millions this year.
by James F on Aug 18, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice work
I really enjoyed this, it’s a very good read. I’m pretty much in agreement with everything in points 1-7, although the modification section at the bottom are ones I wouldn’t really be in favor of. I think if you went to total free agency/no draft we’d see too much of the “rich getting richer”, the teams with the highest payrolls/available cash ending up with the best players and there being much less parity across the majors. I think that could cause quite a bit of damage to the sport honestly.
I like the idea on FA compensation, it should benefit the players and teams—both the ones signing the FA and the ones losing them. My question on it is, are we talking strictly picks going in the supplemental round(s), where for Type A you’d a supplemental pick after round 1 and say after round 2? Or is it a case of say the Brewers/Angels/Blue Jays would all get a pick in the first where the Yankees pick would have been(essentially adding three picks into the first round itself)? Just curious what your thinking was exactly on that issue.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Aug 18, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gatling
Yes. Each team would receive a first rounder based on the quality of the player they lost, not based on the team who signed him.
I would probably have a system where each player is given a spot, so if a team loses Johan Santana/Roy Halladay/Add a 6WAR player here, they would gain an additional pick between 5-10 per say(7B, not taking a pick away from anyone) with a supplemental pick. Again, so it is independent of whether the Red Sox or Houston or Kansas City ends up signing Halladay. The Jays get a pick equal to the Value of Loosing Halladay.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We already know what a no-draft system looks like
It’s called the English Premier League. There are only 3 real teams in the EPL (well, there are a couple of other teams that spend almost as much as the big 3, but don’t get the same results). Everyone else is a punching bag for those 3 teams.
Would you like to see a system where every single championship in a 20-year period is won by the Red Sox, Yankees or Angels? If your answer to this is “sign me up,” you should be advocating for the end of the draft. If you think that’s boring as fuck, well, you want a draft.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 18, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I don’t think one could argue a no draft system is good for competitive leagues. But it is good for competitive offers to players. It would never happen here because the draft creates too much excitement. But I do think players should have those rights.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the price-cartel aspects of the draft are unpleasant
If there was full revenue-sharing so that every club got 1/30th of the pie every year, then you wouldn’t need a draft.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 19, 2009 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Very good read, though I disagree with portions.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 18, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well thought out
My thoughts
1. Draft Pick Signing Bonuses
I don’t really favor slotting to be honest. First of all, it presumes that a #5 overall pick this year is just as good or as valuable as the #5 overall pick last year, when this is not always the case. I also like the gamesmanship and strategy that some teams take – the Pirates went signability in the first round, but then went for guys wanting overslot money in later rounds, getting some steals. I like that some teams are willing to make the investment, while others pass. I wouldn’t be heartbroken if slotting were implemented, but I don’t see a real need for it.
2. Move the draft back
That’s actually a pretty good idea. And I would move the draft signing deadline up. There is no reason it needs to dragged out this long, most players don’t even begin negotiating til a few days before the deadline. Have the draft at the ASB, have the signing deadline August 1. This would also help teams to trade players the following year if they want to make a July deadline deal.
3. Add in the International Players to the draft pool.
Absolutely. I really have a hard time seeing why this hasn’t been already done.
4. What do the Owners change for the Union? Arbitration.
Interesting idea, although I’m not sure its worth it for the union to give up millions of dollars up front at the draft in exchange for thousands of dollars in arbitration.
5. The Union wants a few more changes to arbitration. Service Clock
Doesn’t seem that different to the current system to me.
6. Changing Free Agent Compensation
I would change it, but differently than you would. I think you should still penalize teams for signing players. But I think compensation should not be determined by the silly Elias rankings, rather they should be determined by the contract size the player receives. The top 20% of free agents in terms of total contract value, should net a first round pick. The next top 20% should net a second round pick. I also think no picks should be protected (currently the first fifteen picks cannot be forfeited) I think sandwich picks should be eliminated. Its ridiculous that the worst team in baseball is penalized by having other teams lose free agents to other teams when the sandwich picks bump their second round pick back 10-15 slots.
7. Trading Picks
I’m not a big fan of trading picks, but it makes some sense. I probably wouldn’t oppose such a plan.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 18, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Service Clock
Its a slight change. It forces a team to have a player “waste” too much time in the minors rather than helping our their team. Right now, you can have a player miss 60 games and that’ll be fine to avoid super two status.
Getting rid of super two, and making the threshold of games a player would have to be in the minors be too great to chance loosing MLB games is the idea behind this one. It changes it from missing 60 games makes you become a FA a year later, to you’ll need to miss 120 games to do that. Can the Braves afford to have Heyward play 60 games in the minors next season? Sure. Could they afford to have him play 2/3 of the season down there? Doubt it.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Paragraph 6
The issue with your view of having unprotected is that by doing so you would force bad teams to stay bad, as opposed to actively pursuing someone in free agency. Let’s look at the Nationals this past offseason. If they knew that they would have to sacrifice their first overall pick (or a top 15 pick for a natter of fact) just to sign Adam Dunn in a low risk high reward type of deal, they would stay 50 feet from any FA. Don’t like the idea of a completely unprotected FA compensation
by MartyMcFly on Aug 19, 2009 12:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Fair point
But reduce protection to the first five picks though. I think its ridiculous the 16th best team in the league gets their pick protected.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 19, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Questions
I know how it works for 1st rounders, but what about failing to sign other picks?
For example, the Jays failed to sign Paxton in the supplemental round, and 2 of their Jakes, 1 in the 2nd and the other in the 3rd.
Do the Jays get replacement picks for those guys in next year’s draft?
by Beezerdust on Aug 18, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In this system they would.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts
I’m definitely not in favor of a hard cap for signing bonuses- a slot system is okay since it does depress prices slightly, but teams should be willing to pay. And don’t give me any garbage about teams being scared off by price- in a world where Oakland can sign Grant Green (a Boras client), any talk about small market teams not being able to afford to sign good picks is pure malarkey or cover for a GM who makes foolish decisions with the money he does have.
I’d be okay with adding international free agents into the draft mix as well- you hit the nail on the head there, as well as on compensation and trading draft picks.
Here’s my question- has anyone ever thought about an arbitration system for draft picks? I haven’t thought that through too hard, but it’s an idea.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 18, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Arb
To have thousands of arbitrators would cost way too much money. It also would call into question the arbitrators ability to make such determinations. Each arbitrator will naturally have tendencies one way or another. I could go one, but I think you see that in the end it would be really tough.
I don’t know if I said anything about teams being scared. If all things were equal (Money) if you are the Pirates who are you taking? How about the Orioles? Braves?
Without a hard slotting system, you could have a team like the Mets(but they have no balls to ever do this) loose their first round pick, but make it up by spending signing “signability” guys later on.
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by Metty5 on Aug 18, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See, we haven't seen that happen too much yet
A lot of other teams will also draft signability picks in later rounds and focus on them, foregoing their first round pick or going for an overdraft because they don’t feel they want to spend the money on a premium player (much like the Pirates did). This whole “rich teams will buy everything” meme seems to be overblown to me- wait until we have a period in which teams are actually doing it. When MLB becomes like the NBA, with one of seven teams winning a title every 20 years, then I’ll start worrying.
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 19, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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