Kansas City Royals Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects
by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
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Kansas City Royals Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published October 15, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The grade listed is the OLD GRADE. With a few exceptions, I'm not doing new grades or new lists until I start writing the 2010 book.
1) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade A-: Hitting .288/.319/.449 on the road, .208/.267/.375 at home. Wilmington is a tough park. But still...his road numbers should be better than they are, and his plate discipline needs work. Stock has dropped slightly but he is still young.
2) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade A-: .254/.352/.382 in the Midwest League, .207/.261/.293 in the Carolina League. I don't understand the promotion to Wilmington. He was controlling the strike zone fairly well at Burlington but I don't see how his overall performance justified the bump up a level. Like Moustakas, still very young but stock is down a notch right now. Note that he was rated as a B+ in the book; I lowered the grade before publication.
3) Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Grade B: .262/.399/.457 with 86 walks, 78 strikeouts at Omaha. Not as good as last year, but love the plate discipline. Needs a legitimate shot in KC.
4) Daniel Cortes, RHP, Grade B: Traded to Mariners in Betancourt deal. 4.62 ERA with 86/75 K/BB in 111 innings in Double-A. Big deterioration in K/BB and K/IP ratios this year, velocity reported down as well, and I don't like these trends. Stock dropping.
5) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B: 5.02 ERA with 67/29 K/BB in 61 innings for Omaha, 58 hits, 1.58 GO/AO. Doing better than the ERA indicates, FIP is 4.06. Still has some command issues, but should be ready to help in pen soon.
6) Daniel Duffy, LHP, Grade B: 3.51 ERA with 95/31 K/BB in 100 innings, 93 hits for Wilmington. Hasn't pitched since July 28th, when he left the game early with an injury. Anyone have any idea what it was? I like Duffy but I think he might be a tad overrated and prefer the higher-ceiling Montgomery now. NOTE: he pitched this weekend and looked fine; the injury was a sore back.
7) Michael Montgomery, LHP, Grade B: 2.16 with a 71/32 K/BB combined between Burlington and Wilmington, 1.66 GO/AO in 79 innings, just 57 hits. I like the strikeout/ground out combination. Needs to improve his command, but ceiling is very impressive. Top Royals prospect now.
8) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: 4.25 ERA with 76/33 K/BB in 78 innings, 75 hits for Burlington. Erratic, but when on his game can be dominant.
9) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade B-: .262/.369/.380 with 20 steals, excellent BB/K ratio, hitting much better over the last two months. Candidate for 2010 breakout.
10) Dan Gutierrez, RHP, Grade B-: Has pitched 12 scoreless innings for Wilmington with 13/2 K/BB after coming off season-long DL stay. Very intriguing prospect if he stays healthy.
11) Blake Wood, RHP, Grade C+: 5.27 ERA with 46/23 K/B in 72 innings for Northwest Arkansas, before going down in June with injury. Has always had the stuff, but command and health are big obstacles.
12) Joseph Dickerson, OF, Grade C+: Hit .230/.338/.317 in 34 games for NW Arkansas before getting hurt. Bat not looking too good at this point.
13) Adrian Ortiz, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .228/.255/.284 with 16 steals between Wilmington and Burlington. Good speed, can' t hit.
14) Tyler Sample, RHP, Grade C+: 4.11 ERA with 33/14 K/BB in 31 innings in the Appalachian League. Doing OK. Will get a better read in full-season ball next year.
15) Chris Nicoll, RHP, Grade C+: 3.50 ERA with 58/26 K/BB in 61 innings in Double-A. Just promoted to Omaha, might help in pen next year. I've always liked him for some reason.
16) Matthew Mitchell, RHP, Grade C+: Out all season with injury.
17) Jose Bonilla, C, Grade C+: Hitting .220/.279/.313 in the Midwest League. Looks decent with the glove, bat very doubtful.
18) Kelvin Herrera, RHP, Grade C+: Out all season with injury.
19) Alexander Caldera, RHP, Grade C+: 5.65 ERA with 88/46 K/BB in 115 innings for Wilmington, 131 hits. 3.68 ERA at home, 8.12 on the road...very extreme split with odd component changes as well, check it out at minorleaguesplits or minorleaguebaseball.com.
20) Mitch Maier, OF, Grade C: hitting .240/.317/.335 in the majors. He has a good glove and can swipe a base, but lack of power will prevent him from moving beyond bench role.
Jeff Bianchi was a Grade C but his stock is going up again. Also keep an eye on submariner Chris Hayes and hard-throwing Juan Abreu as relief sleepers. The big breakthrough this year has been outfielder Jordan Parraz, stolen from the Astros for Tyler Lumsden after this list was made last fall.
It is too early to panic regarding Moustakas and Hosmer, and keep in mind that both Burlington and Wilmington are difficult places to hit, though short term expectations need to be tempered. Giavotella looks like a really good candidate for a big breakthrough next year. On the other hand, there is a lot of injury attrition among the pitchers. Derrick Robinson has stolen 56 bases but has no power, though at this point he looks like a better prospect than Adrian Ortiz at least. They continue to pour money into the draft. The '09 class is pitching-thick and college-oriented, though the recent signing of high school catcher Wil Myers (a late first round talent) in the third round adds another high-ceiling bat. This will pay off in the long run, but I remember back in the 90s when the Twins were terrible for many years...it is hard to be patient.
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John Lamb
Lefty 88-91 FB w/ movement, good curve and change, 4-3 3.38 53 ip 51/16 k/bb. Does he come in the top 15? Was considered a 1st round talent before a car accident 4 months before the 2008 draft.
yeah
yes, lamb would definitely be in a revised top 15,maybe top 10
by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Lamb is really good
Royals got a steal with him.
David Lough
seems to be having a breakout year. Top 10 now?
A bit scared by his lack of plate discipline
but he’s just been crushing the ball this year along with playing outstanding defense in center, so it’s probably nit-picking. He’s a top 10 guy for me.
What about a Carl Crawford comp?
Lough might have a touch more power though substantially less speed. Lough seems to have a solid shot, though, of settling down at a .300/.350/.500 pace with some steals, which would be awfully good
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by OldProspects on Aug 20, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
i've actually thought about that comp before
yep this is what i put in my blog last winter when i ranked him #16 in the system.
The first name I thought of here was David DeJesus, but after thinking about it, they are different cats. DeJesus was always more of a polished type hitter, while Lough is more of a boom or bust tools type. I think Carl Crawford with less SB potential is more of Lough’s ultimate upside. I’ve seen a Grady Sizemore comparison, that’s a bit much, but regardless, Lough has as much upside as any outfielder in the Royals organization.
baseball rules.
Hosmer
Do you have any insight regarding Hosmer’s lack of power? His isolated power is only 1.19 after 100+ games. Six home runs in 400+ plate apperances. That looks very un-firstbasemany to me.
Also, is there any feedback yet on his defense at first?
You are being more patient with Moustakas that I am. At least he is in the right organization. Dayton Moore seems to not worry too much about on base percentage and a hacktastic plate approach. Or defense. I guess as long as he keeps collecting home runs, RBIs and dirty jerseys Moore will stay bullish on him.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Ross Gload cordially disagrees with you...
and says that 6 home runs is plenty for a first-base man
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
by RoyalPug on Aug 17, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
groundballs
Hosmer hits the ball on the ground WAY too much . . .almost 60 percent in Burlington, and over 75 percent(!) in Wilmington. It really doesn’t matter how strong he is . . .he can’t really do much at the plate if he can’t get the ball off the ground.
Something’s not right here, and as a result, his physical potential is going mostly unrealized. He’s just a kid still so some patience is necessary, but needless to say the Royals need to make some things happen here.
hosmer/mous
hosmer is basically a college freshman and moustakas a sophomore. their stocks have dropped this year but i will cut them some slack due to age and the parks in which they have been playing.
That said, they really need to get things going in 2010. I wrote in the book that I felt Moustakas would have a consolidation season this year, then breakout in ‘10. We’ll see.
by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Moustakas is looking a lot like Billy Butler
without the bat
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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 17, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Or Jose Guillen
Without the HGH.
Or Miguel Olivo,….. actually he looks a lot like Miguel Olivo without qualification.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
ugh...
the Royals haven’t had much success developing highly regarded draftees into top flight prospects and then major leaguers of late. I wonder if any of that can be attributed to coaching—or if it is just bad luck.
I see a pattern of poor drafting philosophy
The Royals have needed help “right now” for a 15 years but the team’s tendancy has been to draft high school prospects who fall on the risky side even for that age group. This turned out well in the case of Greinke and fairly well in the case of Butler but has flopped in the case of Griffin and Stodolka and looks pretty bad at this time in the cases of Moustakas and Hosmer.
In eight of the last 10 years the Royals have had one of the top-10 picks, and in those years they have gambled five times on prep players. Of those five two were complete disasters (Griffin and Stodolka), one a complete sucsess (Greinke), and the two still working their way through the system look pretty disappointing (Moustakas and Hosmer). With a franchise in as bad shape as the Royals have been it just did not make sense to gamble so much with top-10 picks, especially if you consistantly screw up.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
HS players are certainly more risk but I don’t think they should be taking players close to MLB if they truly feel those HS players are better especially a team in the state they are. It isn’t like they are close to competing correct? Take the BPA and work the rest out later. Again, you can certainly argue HS players have to much risk but I just don’t think you should look the other way on that alone.
In fairness
They have had a high number of college guys bust too – Jeff Austin, Mike MacDougal, Jay Gehrke, Matt Campbel, Kyle Snyder, Matt Burch.
And here are the next few college guys taken after Stodolka – P Justin Wayne, OF Joe Borchard, P Beau Hale, 2B Chase Utley. Utley is of course, awesome, but that’s three college guys that busted.
Here are the college guys taken after Colt Griffin – IF Chris Burke, P Kenny Baugh, 3B Jake Gatreau, OF Gabe Gross. Only Gross is useful, and even he is not worth a top ten pick.
I agree with you somewhat though, just in that I would like to see more balance. I think the franchise has gone too far with prep guys when they should be taking college guys half the time at least.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 18, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I like this series of reviews
John,
Thanks for doing these. It is nice to see you objectively critique your own predictions.
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 17, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
it's hardly a huge loss
fans overrated him. tweener bat who wasn’t a CF.
shane costa is better and no one likes him (except me).
baseball rules.
Doublestix, James Quinn, what would your top 10 look like now?
I think mine would be:
1. Montgomery – really impressed with him now
2. Moustakas – the home/road splits are encouraging, the OBA is not
3. Hosmer – I think the power will come, but I am still a bit disappointed
4. Melville – mixed results this year, but overall somewhat encouraging
5. Kaaihue – I think he should be dominating more than he is actually, but still a great season
6. Duffy – I like him quite a bit, could see him higher than this
7. Lough – fast riser, but I am a fan
8. Rosa – should be in the bullpen now
9. Bianchi – another fast riser, but I’m not fully convinced he’s for real
10.Gutierrez – lots of off-the-field issues
11.Myers – too soon to have him #11? Speaks to how weak our system is.
12.Parraz – probably a 4th OF, but could be a valuable bench player
13.Lamb – terrific start
14.Giovatella – always thought he was a bit overrated
15.Nicoll – should be in KC’s pen very soon
16.Wood – seems to be stalling in AA
17.Dwyer – really liked this draft pick
18.Hayes – should be in KC’s pen very soon, a fan fave
19.Sample – I like his progress at developing some command
20.Hartsock – gets overlooked a lot. Peripherals aren’t great, but he seems to get guys out at every level. Future Jeff Montgomery?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I’m afraid I am not at all qualified to make a meaningful list of Royals prospects. At least not a list that would hold any value. If I had to come up with a list it probably would look similar to your own.
I would still include Costa and Lubanski on my list. I think either of them would probably be fine 4th OFers today if they were healthy. They probably would be more helpful on the 25-man roster than Josh Anderson. I still like Mitch Maier but his bat has been disappointing this season. I think he is fine as long as no one expects him to be more than a 4th OF who OPSs in the low 700’s and plays good defense. Nick VanStratten has been putting up good offensive numbers for three and a half years but no one seems interested in him. I am not sure why. I’ve never seen him play but any player who can man CF and has a .309/.389/.451 career MiLB line after 200+ games seems worth notice.
That said, I do not see a single prospect in the Royals system that I thank has a good chance of becoming an impact player in the majors. There might be ten guys who have a shot at being useful to average in the majors.
Is Shealy hurt? I still am bullish on him. I thought he would be the Royals starting firstbaseman by now back in March.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
without much thought
i will put more thought into this in the winter, but for now…i’m also including Crow assuming he signs.
1. Mike Montgomery … terrific upside and performing well even though he’s been pushed.
2. Aaron Crow … upside and not too far from ML ready.
3. Eric Hosmer … he’s been fairly bad, but you still hear nothing but glowing reports on him.
4. Mike Moustakas … ugh. gotta give him one more year before he really starts to fall.
5. David Lough … love him but not ready to take him over Moose and Hosmer…..yet.
6. Danny Duffy … overrated by some but still a very good lefty arm. looks like a #3 to me.
7. Jeff Bianchi … decent bat and excellent glove. high floor.
8. Dan Gutierrez … this is higher than i had him last year, but he’s so talented.
9. Tim Melville … needs more consistency but has terrific stuff.
10. Wil Myers … not a bad thing that he’s this high. legit round 1 talent. plenty of upside even if not a C.
11. Johnny Giavotella … i really don’t like having him this low. i still think he’s going to be a terrific player.
12. John Lamb … very impressed with his stuff and especially his polish at young age.
13. Chris Dwyer … love his upside. good body, 3 good pitches. delivery and curve remind me of Lester.
14. Kila Ka’aihue … platoon 1B. mashing RHP has value though.
15. Jordan Parraz … i really wanted to see what he’d do with a month+ of AAA. injuries…ugh.
i think those are the clear top 15 IMO. after that there is a bit of a drop off but those are some very talented players especially in the top 10.
the next group would include Louis Coleman (RP), Carlos Rosa (RP), Chris Hayes (RP), Tyler Sample (SP), Kelvin Herrera (SP), Blake Wood (SP), Juan Abreu (RP), Yowill Espinal (SS), Luis Del Rosario (RF)…and maybe a few other reliever types too.
baseball rules.
Will Giavotella stay at 2B?
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by OldProspects on Aug 20, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
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