Boston Red Sox Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2009 8:00 AM EDT Comment 35 comments

Boston Red Sox reliever Daniel Bard (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Boston Red Sox Pre-Season Top 20 in Review

This list was originally published December 1^st, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The grade listed is the OLD GRADE. With a few exceptions, I'm not doing new grades or new lists until I start writing the 2010 book.

1) Lars Anderson, 1B, Grade A-: WTF?? .242/.335/.361 in Double-A, still drawing walks but power has vanished, hitting .054 in the last 10 games. He tore up this level last year at this time. Now out with a hamstring injury. If anyone has seen him recently I'd love to get some input on this one. He's too young to write off given his past, but something went wrong here.

2) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B+: 3.23 ERA with 78/41 K/BB in 109 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket, 89 hits. Not really a lot left to prove here. Ratios have slipped this year but it hasn't hurt the bottom line much.

3) Daniel Bard, RHP, Grade B: 2.88 ERA with 44/14 K/BB in 34 innings, 25 hits. Always had the terrific stuff. Just needed to improve his command.

4) Josh Reddick, OF, Grade B: .277/.352/.520 in Double-A, has shown some pop in the majors so far, but plate discipline looks like an issue he needs to address.

5) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B: Hitting .294/.399/.469 with 16 steals in 16 attempts in the New York-Penn League. Awesome tools, looks polished for his age. Stock rising quickly.

6) Michael Almanzar, 3B, Grade B-: Combined .214/.270/.280 in rookie and short-season ball. Good tools but very unrefined, grade looks too high right now.

7) Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B-: .266/330/.403 with 12 steals since promotion to Double-A, including .311/.388/.547 in his last 27 games. Looks good.

8) Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B-: Traded to Indians in V-Mart deal. Small sample size but recovery from Tommy John appears to be on track, 2.93 ERA in 31 innings, 40/16 K/BB. High ceiling, needs to throw strikes.

9) Yamaico Navarro, SS, Grade B-: 45 games at three levels, hitting combined .250/.310/.417 but just .154/.222/.277 in 17 games in Double-A. Sample size problems preclude a broad judgment here.

10) Oscar Tejeda, SS, Grade B-: .245/.303/.328 in 84 games in the Sally League. Not showing any skill growth, stock is dropping.

11) Casey Kelly, SS-RHP, Grade B-: As a pitcher, a Grade B+/A- prospect. As a hitter, a guy with great tools but poor skills, a standard high ceiling/high risk Grade C. When I made the list no one was sure which way he would end up, so I compromised. My guess is that he's never going to be an adequate hitter, but he needs to figure that out himself.

12) Bryan Price, RHP Grade B-: Traded to Indians. Pitched great in the Sally League before the trade, lousy in the Carolina League, has performed well in two starts since switching from Salem to Kinston. I'd say C+ now.

13) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade B-: 3.77 ERA with 88/49 K/BB in 107 innings for Salem. Good ground ball rate, other marks so-so, will be interesting to see him in Double-A next year.

14) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+: 3.25 ERA with 91/21 K/BB in 100 innings for Greenville, 110 hits. Love the
strike-throwing, but hittable.

15) Stephen Fife, RHP, Grade C+: 2.98 ERA with 59/8 K/BB in 63 innings combined between Greenville and Salem. Another guy who throws strikes and gets grounders. I like him.

16) Argenis Diaz, SS, Grade C+: Traded to Pirates in LaRoche deal. Hitting .243/.304/.291 between Double-A and Triple-A. Bat looks very weak, stock has dropped as a result.

17) Che-Hsuan Lin, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .263/.356/.373 with 21 steals in 29 attempts for Salem. Draws walks, steals bases, will knock an occasional extra-base hit but not sure his bat will be good enough overall. Young at age 20, has time.

18) Luis Exposito, C, Grade C+: Hit .271/.329/.424 for Salem, just promoted to Eastern League and is hot early, .412 in his first eight games though that won't last. Can't say I'm super impressed at this point.

19) Zach Daeges, OF, Grade C+: Hit .172 nine games in April for Pawtucket, out since then with ankle injury.

20) Richard Lentz, RHP, Grade C+: Command collapse in Double-A, 9.12 ERA for Portland with 32/27 K/BB in 25 innings.

The toolsy Latin American infielders aren't developing well with the bat, and Lars Anderson's 2010 reservation in the majors has vanished in a puff of smoke, though it is too early to give up on him long-term. On the positive side, Bard has been great in the pen, and some of the other arms look promising too. Kelly is obviously a pitcher but they have to get him to buy into it. Reddick needs more minor league time in my opinion but has made progress overall. Watch out for Westmoreland next year.

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I think Westmoreland is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball this time next year

by Bravesin07 on Aug 15, 2009 8:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i hope you're right

by rdf8585 on Aug 15, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe...

if he can stay healthy.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 15, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you think he's that good you should be ranking him there now

why wait?

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Aug 15, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I suppose it's hypothetically possible

If you think a guy has a 75% chance of being the #10 prospect and a 25% chance of falling out of the top 100, you’d rank him outside the top 10 right now based on average value.

That being said, I’m not sure why anyone would come to that conclusion.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Aug 15, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You could also think he's not as good as many players you expect to graduate in the next year

by jibs on Aug 15, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus he could be even better by next year.

by Brendan Scolari on Aug 15, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lin

slipped a little bit in July, but post ASB, he’s had a .300/.378/.433 line, and honestly, if you take away his poor April, he’s had a solid year with the bat for the type of player he is. He’ll probably grow into a bit more pop, but I think he’s an excellent leadoff prospect, and some have said he’s the best minor league defensive CF.

by toonsterwu on Aug 15, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So take away half the year and he has been solid? I like him but I bet you can say that about a lot of prospects. ;)

by jfish26101 on Aug 15, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He actually only suggested removing the month of April, when IIRC, Lin was also battling a leg injury of some kind…

"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.

by OCD SS on Aug 15, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As noted, I was only referencing April (and I didn’t really mean to suggest removing anything – performance does matter).. I only used the post-ASB line because I was too lazy to calculate his post-April line.

What I am suggesting is that he got off to a slow start, where his K/BB ratios doesn’t match up with the rest of the year. There were, IIRC, reports that he was pressing at the plate and he was coming off the WBC. I think there’s enough to look at how his season has played out and suggest that April stands out as a result. He had an elbow injury as a result of getting hit early in the year, IIRC, along with the nicks and bruises from the WBC.

My main point is that, April stands out, and that, if you judged his season post-April, he has had a very good season at the plate for his age/skillset, I am pointing that out because of John’s comment

but not sure his bat will be good enough overall

which is certainly a fair thing to reference.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another comment on Lin

He still has a fairly high (I’m too lazy to find out how high it is in reference to the rest of High A and the Carolina League, but I gotta imagine it’s up there) LD% rate at 21.4. Also, his adjusted park/luck line, from MLS, is .313/.400/.435 … which includes his April. Granted, performance matters, so that’s only a measure to assess with.

I still think Lin is fairly underrated, although I do acknowledge that he still has to grow into the potential. But with plus discipline, speed (although the 9 CS does stand out), and plus defense in CF, I like his chances if he physically matures. A bit more pop should happen along the way, although he’s not likely to ever get a lot of pop without reworking things, and that wouldn’t be good as he needs to play to his skillset, which is to get on base.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lars

I think Lars was given too much credit for raking in High-A (in a park that puts Colorado to shame) then carrying that success into a few at-bats in AA in 2008. I expected significant regression this year (though not this much). I think Lars was in a “perfect storm” of sorts. High profile draft pick on high profile team with good scouting reports who put up gaudy numbers. We never tempered our collective enthusiasm that this uber-prospect’s numbers may be grossly inflated by a home park that regularly has 100 degree temps with 15-20 mph winds blowing straight out.

by pffriberg on Aug 15, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe he raked when he went to Portland in the second half of last year and he’s had a back injury all year.

Do you really believe that Lars is doing this badly b/c of park and league adjustments? There’s quite obviously more going on.

by alskor on Aug 15, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I keep hearing about this phantom “back injury” but haven’t read anything substantial about it. Do you have something from a legitimate source that says yes he has been struggling with a back injury this season?

by jfish26101 on Aug 15, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

I doubt that he’s as bad as he’s shown this year, and a lingering back problem would explain a lot. At the same time, the run he had at Portland last year was only 127 AB and his 315/432/535 line was fueled by a 432 BABIP. I don’t think we can ignore that, either.

by FI2 on Aug 15, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lars definitely looks different this year. Seems to me that he’s been taking a lot of pitches and getting into two-strike counts before he swings. Maybe he’s being defensive when he does swing, but I’ve seen a ton of tappers to the mound and second base this year.

I saw him last night and he was swinging with authority, with a deep fly out to RF and a hard shot off the LF wall for a double. I haven’t seen him do that for quite some time. Notably, he only got to a two-strike count once in four PAs. Maybe he’s coming out of it. As John says, he’s very young.

Joe's SeaBlog

by Roadduck99 on Aug 21, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People keep doing this

People keep saying “oh, I knew he was no good because he had too high a BABIP last year and did most of his damage at Lancaster.”

This isnt regression. You dont regress this amount. He’s been awful.

by alskor on Aug 15, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I still believe in Lars.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 15, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His GB% is up significantly from last year

So it does seem that he’s been “different” at the plate.

by jibs on Aug 15, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lars

Yes, but he replicated the numbers, indeed improved them, in Double-A in 133 at-bats, not a big sample size but not exactly “a few” either….and given what he’d done at the lower level it looked like confirmation that his Cal League numbers weren’t just contextual illusion.

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tazawa

He wasn’t in Boston’s top 20 preseason, but I assume he would be now (unless he throws enough to lose rookie eligibility). What range would you place him now for Boston? 2-4? 10-11?

by garry maddox on Aug 15, 2009 5:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

2-4

2-4 I guess. he was in the book but when i posted the original bosox list I don’t think he had signed yet.

by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People are gettin way too enamored with Tazawa's numbers,

which are admittedly pretty good. When you look at his stuff, though, it becomes clear that he has no business being in the Red Sox top 10.

88-90 mph fastball
solid average curveball
below average changeup

Honestly, I don’t know anything about his slider, but I bet it’s not good enough for me to expect Tazawa to be anything more than a back-end starter.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 15, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those guys still have value though.

And I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tazawa included in a trade for a starter or another position player in the offseason.

by CoolCat23 on Aug 15, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

Keith Law thinks he profiles as a #3

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4392996&type=blogEntry

by jibs on Aug 15, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Command and control make a huge difference.

An average fastball but with good command and control makes him a Jeff or Jared Weaver type pitcher. Add in an average curveball he can throw to both lefties and righties, and he becomes at least a useful player.

The major difference between 4th and 5th starters and a 3rd starter is usually having something to offer the opposing handed hitters. 4th and 5th starters are usually guys with decent fastballs and a good slider and that’s it. They’ll dominate same handed hitters but struggle against opposing handed hitters.

I’m not saying “this is it”, but it could be a difference maker.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 16, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do agree with that, but I feel that heiling

Proclaiming him to be a top 4 prospect in the Red Sox system just makes no sense whatsoever to me…and it’s not just JS; it’s everyone.

He has decent pitchability and command, but pretty poor stuff.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 15, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That was to CoolCat; this formatting is weird

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Aug 15, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fife

What would you grade Fife now, assuming he finishes the season on the pace he’s at?

Do you have a more reliable estimation of the stuff he brings to the table beyond what I’ve seen at SoxProspects.com? They say he’s touched 95 but generally sits between 90 and 93 mph with great movement, has a 90 mph two-seamer with good sink (which is obvious in his GB rates), a “biting” curve, and an 81-84 mph changeup, along with a slider he’s not using (as of whenever they wrote this).

From all the data I can gather, this guy deserves to be regarded in the same up-and-coming category as Daniel Hudson. I can’t find much wrong with him, but I don’t have a reliable evaluation of his stuff to go on. If he’s added a bit of velocity since that was written (i.e. he’s always over 90) and/or improved his secondary offerings, I’d feel safer about him. I can’t wait to see what he does at Double-A next year.

Two more questions (directed at John but for anyone who knows more about them than me to answer):

Would you agree that Fife is better than JJ Hoover?

And about where would Alex Wilson rank on this list now? I feel like Wilson’s more attractive than a ton of arms picked ahead of him in the draft. This might getting carried away, but, going on what I’ve read, I’m reminded of Kyle Drabek (similar height, velocity, injury history, they both mix in a slider, etc.).

I think I’d put Fife and Wilson in the top seven, including the traded players and Tazawa but not Bard, and I think both have a higher ceiling than Bowden’s but probably a tad lower than Hagadone’s.

by FierceLikePaulPierce on Aug 16, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

whoa

I think Kyle Drabek is a bit overhyped (I think his rating as a top 50, probable top 30 is fine), but has Alex Wilson tightened up his change? I’m also not sure Wilson’s FB/SL is considered on the same level as Drabek’s. I mean, are they “similar”? I guess it depends on how strict of a focus we are having on the word similar. I don’t know if I’d say it, but I guess a case can be made for them to be similar.

by toonsterwu on Aug 16, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Like I said, I’m going on very little here, and by no means do I think he’s on that level of value, but all the information I have reminds me of Drabek.

I think Wilson should skip Greenville and start 2010 in Salem and then hit Double-A as soon as he’s ready. Then we’ll know more. But if he can throw 94-96 with the control he’s shown (5.7 BB%) in the admittedly small sample size we have to go on, I’m pretty optimistic he can be in the major league bullpen by 2011.

What do you know about his changeup?

by FierceLikePaulPierce on Aug 17, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs