New York Mets Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
53 comments
New York Mets Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
This list was originally published December 20, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.
1) Wilmer Flores, SS-3B, Grade B+: .273/.313/.351 in the Sally League. Not much power, very few walks. But at least his strikeout rate is reasonable, and he's very young at 18.
2) Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+: Hit .290/.337/.540 in Triple-A, .176/.242/.275 in the majors before knee injury. It looks like his power is coming around, and he's still just 20. Main need is to stay healthy.
3) Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B: 3.82 ERA with 82/26 K/BB in 94 innings in Triple-A, holding his own in the majors. I think he is well-positioned for success in 2010.
4) Brad Holt, RHP, Grade B: 5.98 ERA with 41/20 K/BB in 53 innings in Double-A, 53 hits allowed. Need for better secondary pitches to go with the fastball is evident.
5) Reese Havens, SS, Grade B: Hitting .232/.350/.397 in the Florida State League. Showing pop with 10 homers, good plate discipline, batting average low but there is some luck involved there. Still intriguing if he can stay healthy.
6) Jefry Marte, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .235/.279/.348 in the Sally League. Very young at 18, but strike zone judgment is quite poor.
7) Jenry Mejia, RHP, Grade C+: Excellent in the Florida State League, OK in Double-A, combined numbers 2.50 ERA, 68/25 K/BB in 72 innings, 2.15 GO/AO, just 19 years old. Emerging as a top pitching prospect. Out of action with a finger injury.
8) Bobby Parnell, RHP, Grade C+: 3.94 ERA with 39/25 K/BB in 48 innings, 55 hits for the Mets. A competent reliever, being considered for starting role in 2010.
9) Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade C+: 4.50 ERA with 28/28K/BB in 48 innings in Triple-A, 40 hits. 3.11 GO/AO ratio is intriguing, but needs better command.
10) Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .218/.293/.405 between Double-A and Triple-A, hit .250/.298/.409 in 15 major league games. Window of opportunity is closing.
11) Ike Davis, 1B, Grade C+: Hitting .292/.377/.503 between Florida State League and Eastern League with big power spike erasing questions raised last year. Stock way up.
12) Dillon Gee, RHP, Grade C+: 4.10 ERA with 42/16 K/BB in 48 innings in Triple-A before hurting his shoulder.
13) Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+: 5.35 ERA with 24/14 K/BB in 37 innings in the Florida State League, 41 hits. Mediocre performance, perhaps hampered by recovery from knee injury.
14) Scott Shaw, RHP, Grade C+: 3.59 ERA with 102/50 K/BB in 120 innings in the Florida State League. Pretty good numbers, will transition to Double-A next year.
15) Eric Beaulac, RHP, Grade C+: 2.61 ERA with 106/34 K/BB in 93 innings in the Sally League. Strong K/IP and K/BB ratios, all numbers are solid, need to see at higher levels.
16) Ruben Tejada, SS, Grade C+: Hitting .294/.358/.382 with 14 steals in Double-A. Makes contact, can swipe a base, not a lot of power but just 19 years old. Looks like an interesting prospect to me with rising stock.
17) Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C+: Hit .232/.297/.303 in the Florida State League, 18 steals but production weak otherwise. Just traded to the Nationals.
18) Michael Antonini, LHP, Grade C: 5.34 ERA with 67/25 K/BB in 84 innings, 98 hits in Double-A. Still throwing strikes, but has had problems adjusting to this level, as with many finesse guys.
19) Dylan Owen, RHP, Grade C: 5.36 ERA with 61/45 K/BB in 101 innings, 122 hits in Double-A. Just not dominant enough, like Antonini his finesse game hasn't translated well to this level.
20) Kyle Allen, RHP, Grade C: 3.99 ERA with 82/40 K/BB in 97 innings in the Sally League, 90 hits allowed. 2.17 GO/AO. Looks like an interesting sleeper prospect with good forward potential if he can sharpen command.
Josh Thole was rated as a Grade C in the 20-25 range pre-season, as I was concerned his lack of distance power and his defense. He still doesn't hit any homers, but his stock is higher and his contact ability is impressive enough for him to be in the top ten now. Ike Davis's power surge will vault him higher as well. Niese and Martinez should contribute next year, Mejia looks quite impressive, and Tejada is a sleeper. Overall the Mets system isn't bad at all, though I still think they push some of the Latin kids too quickly.
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A few thoughts….
- Most of the people watching Holt’s starts are pointing to a lack of fastball command right now rather then a lack of secondary pitches. His breaking ball is actually looking pretty decent.
- Mejia just made his first start back from the DL this week. Niese is on the DL with a torn hamstring, his season is over.
- Most glaring non-mentions, Jeurys Familia and Robert Carson
by adropofvenom on Aug 14, 2009 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
familia and carson
I had familia and carson both at Grade C due to being so young and so low level last year, but both comments in the book pointed to upside potential. That is why I hate letter grades so much…you really have to read a full comment for each player to get the gist. Grades are just a shorthand.
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Familia make your Top 10 now too?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 14, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
yeah he would probably be in the top ten now. but i haven’t sat down to figure that out. I don’t do that until I’m in the book process.
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Figured
Just curious as to what your guess would be. The way I see it, there are 4-6 guys in the Top 10 here who won’t be for various reasons (Definitely Evans, Niese and Parnell for service time, possibly Fernando for the same reason, and probably Kunz and Marte for crappiness). Then Davis, Thole, Tejada and Familia seem like shoe-ins to fill out the Top 10.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 14, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flores' age
He just turned in early August, this is his 17 year old season.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Scouting The Sally
Go check out
http://www.scoutingthesally.com w/Mike Newman. He’s getting some hands on looks at SALLY prospects, such as Flores, Marte, Beaulac, Allen and Familia and others.
He also has an eyes on look at other prospects within the South Atlantic Leauge. If you have any questions for Mike, contact him at this forum:
http://scoutingthesally.prophpbb.com/
Enjoy and thanks Mr Sickles for all the great stuff you post!
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Aug 14, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rustich
Any word from you on Rustich, John? He’s old for his league but he looks like he might end up an impact reliever… if the Mets finally give up on the idea of making him into a starter.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 14, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And if he can stay healthy for three weeks
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think part of that is the Mets keep pushing him to take on more innings per appearance to stretch him out. Keep him to one inning at a time, I think he stays healthier.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 14, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
But he was pitching three innings per appearance for the most part early in the season, so it’s not like he was being rushed into a starting job.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still
You have to admit it was a curious way to approach a pitcher who had injury problems in college, no? To pitch him multiple innings at a time.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 14, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's got the repertoire to start already
And his injury problems were finger related, not shoulder or elbow. Considering this, and the fact that he hasn’t suffered catastrophic injury, I think they made the right move. If a guy has a chance to be a front of the rotation starter, which Rustich, based on his stuff, certainly would seem to, you have to at least give him a chance to fail in the role, otherwise you’re the Mariners. As it is, I think they’ve given him ample opportunity to show that he can start and he’s shown that he can’t handle the workload. Shift him to a one inning role and he’ll rise very, very quickly; I might even start him with the big league club. But there wasn’t much harm in trying.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair
But then why did they start him as a reliever and then try to stretch him out if they thought so highly of his stuff?
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 14, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not exactly what they did
I don’t have the game logs, but as I remember, he’s never been a one inning guy. They’ve had him going two to four innings for his entire time out of the bullpen, ostensibly because he was a former college closer who suffered injury, and they wanted to bring him along slowly. It’s not like they groomed him as a closer only to then move him into the rotation. Up until this point, they’ve had him be a long reliever piggybacking on a given starter where he was essentially expected to finish the game. So there wasn’t exactly too much stretching out to do. When they tried to stretch him out beyond the three innings or so he averaged most of this year he got hurt. I think the experiment is over, but I think they were pretty smart and consistent, in this case.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zach Lutz
Now that he’s finally healthy, Lutz is really making a name for himself. He’s leading the EL in OPS by a decent amount and plays a pretty solid third base.
Eric Niesen has also impressed this year and looks like a definite major leaguer.
by T Pac on Aug 14, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lutz
Is in the FSL, not the EL, which makes a pretty big difference considering he’s 23.
I do like him though.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair...
the difference between St. Lucie and Binghamton is rather negligible for position players. See the Minor League Equivalency Calculator.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 14, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes sense
And his numbers are definitely excellent for the FSL, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s accumulating them against younger competition. His numbers are pretty similar to those that Nick Evans put up at 21 in the FSL, so I’m not getting too excited just yet, even though I am a big fan.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still not sold on Niesen
Though he’s jumped ahead of Roy Merritt on the “Future LOOGY” pecking order.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Meddler on Aug 14, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aderlin Rodriguez
Any thoughts on him, john? I don’t know too much about him other than he got a pretty good signing bonus and he just recently started playing for the GCL Mets.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 14, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
RATE OF CHANGE STUDY
HI JOHN,
I’D BE REALLY, REALLY INTERESTED IF YOU DID A MID-SEASON DEGREE OF FAIL/SUCCEED IN AGGREGATE – I.E. GETTING AT SOME SORT OF RATE OF PROSPECT ATTRITION (AND IT WOULD BE REALLY COOL TO STUDY THAT FOR YOUR RANKINGS YEAR OVER YEAR)!!!
THANKS,
YOUR FRIEND
TOLAXOR
by TOLAXOR on Aug 14, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Friends
So is John Sickels, apparently.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 14, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Niese
John – don’t forget about Niese’s season-ending hamstring injury. He’s expected to make a full recovery for next year, I think – and I know injury analysis might not be the point of this site – but it must be some kind of a setback.
http://crosstownrivals.blogspot.com
by zookman12 on Aug 14, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IMO
Freak injury, not arm related. I don’t think it hurts his stock much.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
niese
Not really worried about it. He should have plenty of time to rehab. I should have mentioned it though.
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any opinions of Parnell as a starter?
I’m not a fan of the move, considering he wasn’t very good starting in the minors, but wondering what other folks (particularly John) think. Thanks.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where would you rank Mejia in terms of pitching prospects in baseball
94-97 MPH Fastball, 85-87 MPH Changeup, and a inconsistant but nasty 75-78 MPH curveball. Sounds more like a more refined Neftali Feliz to me.
by Bravesin07 on Aug 14, 2009 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you going to try and have his baby?
by jfish26101 on Aug 14, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ummm no
Just saying that this kid could be a #1, then again I was wrong about Gomez.
by Bravesin07 on Aug 14, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s all good man, I just grow old of seeing you hype up 1-2 prospects a month and then flip flopping on them at the first sign of trouble. Just giving you a hard time, I respect your enthusiasm if nothing else. :)
by jfish26101 on Aug 14, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mejia
From what I hear, you are still looking at a guy with a VERY violent delivery who is having some hand issues. You don’t stretch small guys with uber-violent deliveries out to 200 IP. He will likely wind up a late inning reliever.
by ScoutingTheSally on Aug 14, 2009 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i haven’t heard that from anyone this year.
by T Pac on Aug 14, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1/2
Everything I’ve heard is roses but that is partly why I’m still suspicious. I simply have a hard time believing that everything about him (except the FB velocity) can improve in such a short amount of time but it isn’t impossible. Even if it hasn’t happened before (which I’m sure it has), there is always a first time. I’m reserving judgment for later unlike everyone who thinks he is a top 10-20 prospect right now.
by jfish26101 on Aug 14, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I do think he’s a pretty huge prospect, but I want to know he can start before I buy into the hype too much.
The Mets may have three great closer prospects in Mejia, Holt, and Rustich, and fail to get a single starter out of them. It’s encouraging that we’ve got the arms, it’s discouraging that they might not start.
by Fanon on Aug 15, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The next time he starts at home I will record some more video on him
The B-Mets have Youtube of his starts. Ask jibs, what he thinks about the motion.
by Bravesin07 on Aug 15, 2009 4:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mejia video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEKbFV_SZ4c
his delivery is not particularly violent, and looks fairly repeatable
by T Pac on Aug 15, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing seems too out of place with his delivery to me
Granted I don’t have any background at all in analyzing pitching mechanics, but he repeats his motion well from the layman’s eye, and he doesn’t seem to do anything involving the inverted W or any other supposed funky arm motion. He seems to derive a good chunk of his velocity from his thick lower body, and he holds his velocity late into games.
The only thing I really see people holding against him is his height.
by jibs on Aug 15, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Mejia is pitching Tuesday night and the game starts at 6:30, not 7
I maybe in town Jibs, the weather is going to be 90. What a night for a ballgame. Maybe a Guerra vs. Mejia matchup.
by Bravesin07 on Aug 16, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Padres
I know I get pegged as a Padres homer, but John has yet to post about a team that I think has a better system than the Padres (even if they don’t sign Tate, Williams, & Sampson – but they will get 2+ of them).
by pffriberg on Aug 14, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too bad they suck in the majors.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Aug 14, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've gathered you're a fellow Mets fan
This ain’t the season to talk.
by Fanon on Aug 14, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's posting these in order
of how he did it at the start of the year. He certainly isn’t doing it in order of the systems he thought were best (or thinks are the best now)
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 15, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
random
I’m doing it randomly as systems amuse or interest me on any given day.
by John Sickels on Aug 16, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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