Jason Heyward
by mraver on Aug 13, 2009 5:58 PM EDT
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This is starting to get out of hand. I get that he's crushing AA, I get that he's got great tools offensively and defensively, I get that he's barely 20 years old. But some of the stuff I'm starting to hear about this kid is over the top. #1 prospect in all of baseball? I completely believe that. But certainly Mike Stanton is right there. If you believe Montero stays behind the plate, he's the clear pick, and even if you don't his bat is good enough to put him in the conversation.
So given all of that, I find it shocking to see stuff like Jim Callis in his ESPN chat claiming to prefer Heyward to Matt Kemp and... JUSTIN UPTON. I mean, really? Heyward over Upton? How is that even a question? Upton might be Heyward's upside, or what we want him to be in two years time, but Upton's there already, OPSing over .900 in his 2nd full season at age 21! Would anyone really prefer Heyward to Upton right now or in the future? I just don't get it.
As a Braves fan, all of this hype obviously gets me extremely excited, and I'm thinking it's getting to be a bit much. So what I'm asking for is for people to bring me down a notch on Heyward. Pick at some nits. Tell me he can't hit some particular pitch in some particular location. Say he misses the cutoff man too much. Just tell me something besides, "Jason Heyward is the savior and he's ready to help your team right now." Please!
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I love Heyward
I actually have him, Upton, and Kemp in my sim league.
Heyward is cleary the #1 prospect IMO, but I wouldn’t rank him above Upton and Kemp.
I'll go with Heyward #1
Stanton … maybe top 10. Lots of power, but lots of strikeouts, and sub-.300 BA. As for power, you only need to get it over the fence … how far over it goes is of no import. Heyward has plenty of power go go over the fence, and a better batting eye to hit more of them than Stanton in the show. Stanton may hit 500 footers, but it’s how many, not how far.
+1
“Stanton may hit 500 footers, but it’s how many, not how far.”
Yup, just ask Joe Borchard about that.
Well
he hit 39 last season, and already has 24 this season.
I think he has the how many as well as the how far covered.
in hitters parks against mediocre pitching
the issue with Stanton is not can he hit, it’s WILL he hit against good pitching.
Heyward is looking more and more like a can’t miss prospect (and i hate saying that).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 15, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
mostly false
Stanton did play in a great park for hitters last year, but he actually had a higher slugging percentage AWAY from that park (.622 to .606).
You got it wrong again for this year. Jupiter is a very pitcher-friendly environment. Stanton “only” slugged .500 at home compared to .649 in other FSL parks.
As for the “mediocre pitching,” it was the same competition that Heyward faced (with less success). Certainly Heyward’s looked great in AA, but we’re still only talking about 125 ABs for him.
Definitely Heyward
The thing that concerns me about Stanton at this point is in his transition from A+ to AA, his BB rate has decreased by a good margin, and his K rate has increased by a good margin. Obviously, he is only 19 in AA, so he very well may work these things out next year at the same level. However, I always have to go with the guy with advanced plate discipline, which in this case is Heyward, who has actually cut his K rate and increased his walk rate in AA.
What I respect about Stanton
Is his World Series stats:
3-0, 23 1/3 innings, 1.54 ERA, 0.814 WHIP.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Aug 13, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This comment is great...
made my day. M
Mike Stanton the LHP formerly of the Yankess (among other teams) and has probably never been mentioned on this site before vs. Mike Stanton, the stud OF prospect. I wonder how many times this guy read “Mike Stanton” on here and thought they were talking about Jeff Nelson’s best friend.
Upton and Kemps numbers in the big leagues
are all based on their Murdering of left handed pitching.
Against right handed pitching they are just average
show me
the numbers then, don’t just spout off. i know Kemp kills lefties, but I don’t think J.Upton has that big of splits this year.
so upton doesnt have big splits huh?
its only almost a .500 difference
.500 difference because he's KILLING lefties
When a guy’s weaker split is still a .813, and his stronger split is .500 above that at age 21 thats crazy. Twenty-one year olds having .813 combined OPS is insane, let alone their “platoon split” being .800.
Sounds like someone is a hater.
Carlos Quentin's time has arrived.
by Team Moneyball on Aug 16, 2009 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions
nope
just giving you guys some coool info
Matthewmafa misses the point...
if Upton simply had an .813 combined OPS at the age of 21, he’d still be considered a potential HOF. That he will spend 20% of his career facing lefties with an OPS of 1.200+ and the 80% against RHP with an OPS likely to rise a bit to .900+ means we are talking about a guy on par with Griffey JR. An all-century type player. Let’s see Heyward play a game in the majors before going there. I’ve seen enough of Alex Gordon and Delmon Young to know better.
there is a reason why that BABIP is so high
When he makes contact, he hits the ball REALLY hard.
BABIP is a valuable statistic, but let’s not go overboard on it. David Eckstein having a lower BABIP than Justin Upton does not necessarily mean that one of them is having more luck this season than the other.
An .813 OPS for a 21 year old is average?
ok nice to know.
Kemp is also above league average against RHP.
And both have been two of the best defensive players at their postions in the majors.
Arguement fail
im not talking about age
they are barely above league average vs rightys While THEY KILLL Leftys
seriously...
they’re both at least 4 wins above replacement level ALREADY this season.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
“Arguement fail”
Spelling Fail.
My religion is A'slamic.
by WhoNeedsReligionWhenYaGotBaseball on Aug 14, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Not quite...
Upton has the most errors of any OF in the majors, last time I checked.
So?
Ryan Braun does the same… Same with Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, David Wright, and Miguel Cabrera. Lots of great hitters have crazy platoon splits and it doesn’t really mean or amount to anything.
by CaptainCanuck on Aug 14, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And Curtis Granderson with LHP
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Aug 17, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
justin uptons BIG improvements this year
He is the same guy this year vs Right handed pitching that he was last year .813 OPS this year vs .804 last year…. His numbers are just so much greater this year because he KILLs left handed pitching
And your point is?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I'll take
a 21 year old with a .813 OPS and gold glove defense any day.
Really what are you trying to prove? That Justin Upton is overrated? Cuz you couldn’t be more wrong if that’s what you’re getting at.
upton isnt overrated
hes great… i just think he needs to improve vs Right handers. and he is not a gold glover yet.
Justin Upton
is the illest villain.
Dude OPSed .816 last year — and he wasn’t even playing well!
by METSMETSMETS on Aug 15, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
*sigh* Some people are just never satisfied.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 14, 2009 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I heard Jason Heyward has trouble with fastballs down and away
also once in a while a good fastball up in the zone ‘climbing the ladder’ has to get a swing and a miss out of Heyward once in a while, right?
but he kills every breaking ball there is and Maybe Only Johan the Great Santana’s changeup has a chance against this guy.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 13, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions
dumb
Kemp is arguably the best CF in the league right now. Upton is already a terrific RF at the age of 21. Would never take a prospect over that. Ever.
baseball rules.
I dont even think it's arguable
I think Kemp has clearly been the best overall CF in baseball. And I think Upton was clearly the best RF in baseball before his injury.
You might want to double-check your facts
Jeff (NYC)
Justin Upton or Heyward?
Jim Callis (2:58 PM)
Upton, barely.
Pretty sure that means he’s choosing Upton over Heyward. Not that facts ever got in the way of a good argument/opinion :)
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/27810/mlb-with-jim-callis
Jon (Grand Rapids, MI): Heyward or J. Upton?
Jim Callis (3:27 PM): Heyward.
You can't take anything Jim Callis says in a chat seriously
At different times last offseason, if I’m not mistaken, he claimed he liked each of the top prospect “pairs” (Holland/Feliz, Anderson/Cahill, Bumgarner/Alderson, Matusz/Tillman) better than any of the others.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Couldn't his opinion changed as the season progressed?
More data may have swayed his opinions.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 13, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
This was all after last season was over
I distinctly remember going from confusion, to derision, to just amusement as he changed his tune every couple of weeks.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Actually he said...
Heyward
Heyward
Heyward
Heyward.
Which I took to mean, easily, Heyward over Upton.
Heyward's the best prospect
I wouldn’t imagine it any other way.
But I think whoever put him in the likes of Kemp and Upton needs to stop taking/watching Speed and slow down to think. Your brain doesn’t have to operate at over 50 MPH at all times
Eh
Sounds like somebody’s trying to sell some magazine subscriptions. Which he’s entitled to as a man deserving of a living.
Heyward is nice, but I prefer Upton’s power stroke. He’s also already one of the best outfielders in the game at 21. I think Heyward is a regular before long, but let’s not go crazy just because it’s now the fashionable thing to do in prospect analysis.
by mrkupe on Aug 14, 2009 2:08 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think
Callis is choosing the overall career of Heyward compared to Upton. Not saying that Upton isn’t doing great but that he thinks Heyward will be better through his career than Upton.
except Upton already has top 10 OF to ever play the game potential...
and Heyward hasn’t seen a MLB pitch. So the comparison is ridiculous, to say the least.
there are only a handful of players in MLB history (I'd like to see the list)...
who have even come close to doing what Upton did this year at 21.
.953 = Upton's current OPS...
how many baseball players in the history of the game have ever done that over the course of a full season at the age of 21. I’d guess that there are less than 10 players on the list.
age 21 season
1. Jimmie Foxx 1.088 1929
2. Joe Jackson 1.058 1911
3. Mel Ott 1.036 1930
4. Ted Williams 1.036 1940
5. Eddie Mathews 1.033 1953
6. Albert Pujols 1.013 2001
7. Tuck Turner .996 1894
8. Hal Trosky .987 1934
9. Tom McCreery .956 1896
10. Justin Upton .953 2009
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