Seattle Mariners Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

For a guy with athleticism but rawness, they were probably right. Almonte has some serious tools but not skills right now. C+ might be a fair grade on his god given DNA alone, but right now not on his skill sets. I’d put him at a solid C because I’m not convinced he’s going to do much. I know he’s only 20, but he doesn’t have that much time to improve his strike zone management. He also may not get the chance with other outfield prospects like Tyson Gillies, Dustin Ackley, and James Jones getting more chances to succeed.

I simply don’t have the time to keep track of every prospect in baseball with the attention to detail necessary to truly judge a full farm system. Likewise, I don’t expect people who don’t follow the M’s in great detail to know as much about the system. Thus, my comment that the negativity towards our farm system is unwarranted is based on a presumption. I know that’s stupid, but it’s what I got.

Anyway, the farm system has taken some hits this year, there is no doubt about that. I can’t ignore that 2009 has not been good for the farm. That doesn’t mean it’s in the proverbial toilet.

To answer each question:

Talent above A-ball:
Rich Poythress (AA) – SSS rules apply of course, but he’s already showing he can get on base at this level. The power will come. Poythress has been described as being Matt Laporta only a little less talented.

Adam Moore (AAA) – Power drop off a bit in his first major tour at AAA, but he is still hitting for average and still getting on base. Even if the power never returns, a catcher who can possibly hit .275 / .350 /.400 is a valuable player.

Matt Tuiasosopo (AAA) – Injury bug has set him back a tad, but he’s still showing power and decent on base skills. Strikeouts not a concern. With his injury earlier this year (elbow), it’s understandable he’s having to get back to form. He’s 15 for his last 35 with only 9 strike outs, so he’s looking to be on the road to recovery. Wont stick at third base, probably, and that’s his biggest weakness.

Mike Saunders (Maj) – I’m assuming he loses his rookie status this year, but if he doesn’t, he’s still a top prospect with athleticism and tools. He’s an above average player all around; a Randy Winn clone with more power potential.

Carlos Triunfel (AA) – Lost a year of development to a broken leg. He’ll be graded lower simply because of that (and it’s a valid concern). Still loaded with talent.

Mike Carp (AAA) – Solid on base skills but his power has dropped off a touch since being sent back to the minors. Lyle Overbay is probably his ceiling.

Shawn Kelley (Maj) – Will almost certainly lose his rookie status this year. Before an oblique injury he was doing just fine, pounding the strike zone with low 90s fastballs and a decent slider.

Of these, Saunders, Triunfel, and Poythress are all potential impact talents.

Players with serious skill deficiencies:

True for now. The inclusion of Dustin Ackley, James Jones, Kyle Seager, and Rich Poythress should fix that. Previous drafts have taken players with high risk but also high reward. When you do that, you’re going to have players who may take longer to figure things out or never figure it out at all. The option for you as an individual analyst is to decide whether “high risk / high reward” means you pay more attention to the risk than the reward.

Or are relief pitchers:

Juan Ramirez is doing fine. Michael Pineda’s injury has been troublesome, so he’ll get knocked down a peg. Nick Hill has come out of no where and returned to a starting role in AA West Tennessee (71.2 IP, 19 BB, 71 SO, 58 Hits). Mauricio Robles was one of the people we picked up for Washburn, and is probably a steal (97.2 IP, 50 BB, 115 SO, 86 Hits) even if his walk rate is alarming. Steve Hensley has also done well, as John mentions above. I have a bit of faith in Ricky Orta as well, or did before he went down with injury. I also like the ironically named Jacob Wild (Only 29 BB in 113 IP, 101 SO, 121 H) as a sleeper.

Like John, I’m worried about Dan Cortes, but even if that was damaged goods we received, we got it for Yuniesky Freaking Betancourt. I’ll take it.

Granted, Josh Fields is there and the decision to turn Phillipe Aumont into a reliever is disconcerting, but that doesn’t knock his talent.

The High Desert situation:

Yes. Looking at Liddi and Dunigan and… well anybody really and trying to take their power numbers seriously is tough. The coined phrase “High Desert Mirage” is quite apt. However, remember, that also applies to the pitchers in the other direction. If you see a pitcher doing really well there, or in the Cal League in general, there might be something there. Ramirez, Wild, Hensley, Pineda, and Paredes have all done well there, all things considered. I’ll be very happy when / if the Mariners get out of that stupid stadium and that league.

The Pirates trade took three of our Low A ball players, but aside from Lorin, they weren’t that special. Adcock and Pribanic have talent, but they’re probably not going to make it as starters. Neither has a strong third pitch to offer to opposing handed hitters. Lorin has the makings of one, so he hurt to lose. Getting Robles back to replace him evens out the deal. Besides, we still have Kenn Kasparak (124.2 IP, 28 BB, 120 SO, 107 H) down there, so it’s not as if we lost everything. Also, Derrick Saito (Betancourt trade), though small, has been converted into a starter. Andrew Carraway (12th Round, 2009) has started off at Low A ball rather well. And, of course, there’s Cleto down there. On the international scene, Jose Francisco Valdivia and Erasmo Ramirez are two interesting young arms who could rise quickly.

It’s true we don’t have much advanced pitching. Going beyond A ball you pretty much find the names I pointed out above, but of those, only Nick Hill could be a help to us within a year. Ramirez, Wild, Pineda, Paredes, Robles, and Cortes are all still at least two years out. The Mariners have been wise to acquire people like Garret Olson, Luke French, Jason Vargas, and Chris Jakubauskas and promote Doug Fister to help the major league team through this season. After 2009’s off season begins, we’ll see what we have.

Anyway, to make this already long answer longer, here is how I’d rank our prospects right now:

1). Dustin Ackley – I assume he’ll sign.
2). Michael Saunders – Remove if he loses his rookie eligibility.
3). Carlos Triunfel
4). Phillpe Aumont
5). Rich Poythress
6). Juan Ramirez
7) Adam Moore
8). Matt Tuiasosopo
9). Dennis Raben
10). Kyle Seager
11). Greg Halman (yes I know, he’s still a heck of a talent to ignore)
12). James Jones
13). Mike Pineda
14). Nick Hill
15). Josh Fields
16). Mike Carp
17). Gabriel Noriega
18). Jharmidy DeJesus
19). Julio Morban
20). Guillermo Pimentel – 2009 international signing.

Others: All the people I’ve mentioned in this post that I didn’t rank plus Nick Franklin, Steve Baron, Tyson Gillies, Ezeuqiel Carrera, Juan Diaz, Efrain Nunez.

I will leave it to John Sickels to grade people as that’s what he does. In my opinion, there’s a lot of C+s, but a lot of Bs in there. Ackley might be an A- candidate if someone’s feeling generous and trusts in his talent. I’m sure some folks will have a different order to things than mine, but that’s how I see it.