AL Top 50 List
by alskor on Aug 12, 2009 5:38 AM EDT
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via faninterference.files.wordpress.com
I know we've been seeing a lot of these lately. Thought Id try my hand... but with a twist. Left out the lesser league. I didnt feel like wasting my time predicting who will be losing the 2011-2016 All Star Games!
FYI, Heyward and Stanton would be #1-2 and Bumgarner would be either #4 or #5.
1) 1B Justin Smoak TEX
An advanced hitter who will hit for a very high AVG and good power from both sides of the plate. Sure thing, middle of the order hitter with a good glove at 1B.
2) RHP Neftali Feliz TEX
Special arm. Secondary offerings better than advertised. True Ace potential here.
3) OF Desmond Jennings TB
Great defense? Check. Patient hitter ? Check. Hit for a high AVG? Check. Hit for Power? Check. Speed out the wazoo? Check. What don't people like about this guy...?
4) C Carlos Santana CLE
Middle of the order hitter at a premium position. Really like his bat. VMart v.2.0.
5) RHP Chris Tillman BAL
Potential Ace pitcher. Great stuff and has improved all over this year.
6) 1B Jesus Montero NYY
Phenomenal bat. Would like to see a little more patience from him, but minor quibble.
7) LHP Brian Matusz BAL
Being "plus" across the board but not "plus plus" anywhere really shouldnt be taken as a negative. Pretty sure thing, too, but has a considerably high ceiling.
8) LHP Martin Perez TEX
Exciting young pitcher with everything you want. I want to say I need to see it at higher levels, but he was just promoted... and frankly, if he got lit up it wouldnt change anything for me b/c he's so young. Really, he just needs to keep doing it.
9) RHP Wade Davis TB
Great stuff. Very good young pitcher. Not sure why he sometimes doesnt get the love he deserves. I guess he's never had that one truly dominant year that gets everyone on the bandwagon... but Im sitting here on it.
10) OF Matt LaPorta CLE
Middle of the order bat with plus patience and power.
11) RHP Casey Kelly BOS
Special arm, bright future. Not too shabby as a SS either. I heart athletic pitchers.
12) RHP Hector Rondon CLE
Love this kid. Electric arm and impressive stuff.
13) OF Michael Saunders SEA
Decent defense and the kind of the approach at the plate that I look for. Bit of speed, bit of power. I dont see a real star here, but I sort of expect to look up in 5 years and see him up on the leaderboards in a lot of categories in a sneaky way.
14) OF Josh Reddick BOS
Very underrated. Good defensive CFer. Incredible plate coverage. His approach seemingly improves monthly.
15) 1B Chris Carter OAK
Ive loved Carter for a long time, as you may have noticed. I do have some concerns about him, though... and his lack of defense is troubling... but he's gonna be a major leaguer with plus plus power. Its funny... basically just a matter of time until he's overrated now.
16) 3B Lonnie Chisenhall CLE
I was first on the bandwagon here... but he has more warts than are typically discussed. Id like to see improvement in his K and BB rates... but the kid can certainly hit. Big question was power, but he's shown tons of that.
17) SS Tim Beckham TB
Loved his tools last year and still love them.
18) LHP Matt Moore TB
Great arm in the perfect situation for him. He's the prototypical Rays development pitcher.
19) LHP Casey Crosby DET
Exciting arm that I loved out of high school before the injury. He's good... Im not sure just how good yet... have to see him at higher levels.
20) RHP Jason Knapp CLE
Live arm. Needs to work on secondary stuff and control... but that basically goes for every pitching prospect. Unlike most of them Knapp already has an Ace's fastball.
21) 2B Jemile Weeks OAK
Sort of like if Desmond Jennings were a 2B. Some questions about his glove, and still some about his power... but he looks like he could be a great sparkplug/leadoff guy. The basement on this guy is pretty damn enticing. The ceiling is crazy.
22) SP Michael Ynoa OAK
Brilliant young arm. I only have reports to go on, but the reports all say "historically good." Im skeptical. Not sure what to think, but based on what I know so far Im placing him here to hedge my bets.
23) OF Ryan Westmoreland BOS
As good a set of tools as anyone in the game. Concern was how raw he was, but this scorching hot start has glossed that over. Lots of hurdles still in front of him, but not too many guys have a ceiling like this.
24) SS Reid Brignac TB
Very good defender and pretty good bat. This guy should be starting at SS for somebody already - and if he was, he would likely be one of the better options there in the league.
25) 1B Lars Anderson BOS
Back injury has sapped his power and wiped out his confidence, but Im still a believer. Obviously a downgrade was necessary, though. Still young, and all the things I liked about him before are still there.
26) RHP Phillippe Aumont SEA
Great stuff.
27) RHP Jake Arrieta BAL
Great fastball, but secondary stuff really concerns me. He'll be a good major league pitcher, but might not live up to his minor league success.
28) RHP Jeremy Hellickson TB
Tim Alderson with better velocity...? I like Hellickson a good deal... but he does have his issues.
29) OF Nick Weglarz CLE
A guy I thought I was high on but keep seeing crazy high on other lists. He's not going to be Adam Dunn. He looks more like oh, say .260/.360/.550 with poor defense to me. That's a damned good hitter... but from a guy who should probably be at 1B that doesnt really excite me. Very good prospect... but not a real top notch prospect.
30) 3B Mike Moustakas KC
I liked him considerably less when we found out he wasnt a middle infielder... but he's a very good 3B prospect. Not the stud everyone expected at one point... but not nearly as bad as some are making him out to be.
31) RHP Junichi Tazawa BOS
Throws strikes, stays ahead in the count and pitches like a vet. His pitches move a ton. His stuff is very good, but not front of the rotation good. He does pitch better than his stuff, though. Fun pitcher to watch.
32) RHP Carlos Carrasco CLE
All the tools... sort of a poor man's Wade Davis as a prospect. Hasnt dominated like he should.
33) SP Michael Bowden BOS
People keep worrying about what he's not instead of what he is. He throws strikes with plus stuff. Gonna be a decent MLB pitcher. Flyball tendencies are the thing that concerns me.
34) OF Tyson Gillies SEA
Exciting lead off type. Rocketing up my list all year.
35) RHP Nick Hagadone CLE
Another live arm, but this one has some decent secondary stuff already. Not sure if he's a reliever, but he's going to be very good either way.
36) RHP Nick Barnese TB
Another great young Rays arm. Still kind of raw despite the good results.
37) RHP Dan Hudson CWS
Like what Im seeing here.
38) OF Ryan Kalish BOS
Boston's third best CF prospect is damn good in his own right. A top 100 prospect 2 years ago, Kalish is still young (21), has a great glove, hits for contact, is extremely patient and has finally hit for power again after that wrist injury.
39) 1B Eric Hosmer KC
Liked his tools last year, still like them. No idea why he was promoted... but I still expect him to hit. Great swing.
40) RHP Danny Duffy KC
Everything you want to see, but without top notch stuff.
41) OF Austin Jackson NYY
No star potential here, but solid hitter and very good defender in CF. Plenty to like here.
42) LHP Mike Montgomery KC
Young lefty who throws hard and keeps the ball on the ground. All of that sounds great.
43) 3B Adrian Cardenas OAK
Doesnt excite me... but pretty good at everything. Gotta maintain the high AVGs - which he hasnt done in AAA...
44) OF Aaron Hicks MIN
Raw, but love his tools. Dont quite understand why people had him so high after his debut.
45) RHP Tim Melville KC
Royals sped up his delivery and its upped his velocity. Another young live arm with great upside, but very raw and lots of questions.
46) RHP Brandon Erbe BAL
Seemingly forgotten among the O's pitching prospects, this guy has some very good stuff and his results have been pretty impressive.
47) OF Ben Revere MIN
Not as high on him as most. Very good contact hitter, but complete lack of power is troubling.
48) Arodys Vizcaino NYY
Love the arm. Lets see what he does at the next level.
49) 3B Dayan Viciedo CWS
Starting to get it.
50) LHP Trevor Reckling LAA
Nice arm, but his velocity keeps him from being a higher rated prospect. I do love athletic pitchers with good mechanics.
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HONORABLE MENTIONS (In no particular order! Some I wanted to write about, others I didnt. Not meant to indicate any kind of order at all.)
RHP Wilmer Font TEX
-Fun arm. Lets see more.
C JP Arencibia TOR
-Never been a huge fan b/c of his lack of patience. Not surprised by his performance this year at all. He'll be an okay major league catcher but I dont know why people thought there was a star here.
RHP Zach McAllister NYY
-Sinkerballer who's been very good. Stuff holds him back, but looks like a good mid-back rotation type
RHP Jordan Walden LAA
-Still love this arm.
RHP Daniel Cortes SEA
-Big dude with good stuff, his control has left him this year but he's still missing tons of bats. Will be off a lot of radars after this year, but there's plenty to like.
3B Alex Liddi SEA
-High Desert mirage? Possibly. I liked him before that though, and I see real progress here.
3B Danny Valencia MIN
-Not a huge fan, but he keeps proving me wrong...
SS Yamaico Navarro BOS
-Great glove, bat is coming along nicely.
1B Anthony Rizzo BOS
-Sleeper... everything you want is there.
RHP Stolmy Pimental BOS
-Live arm, great stuff. Starting to figure it out.
RHP Felix Doubront BOS
-Another young live arm with great stuff who could add velocity
OF Grant Desme OAK
-Looking very good. Need to see more. Big time sleeper.
RHP Juan Ramirez SEA
-Good arm that didnt live up to expectations this season.
LHP Neil Ramirez TEX
-Not having a great season, but I was an admirer going into '09.
RHP Jeremy Bleich NYY
-Solid pitcher, but as was feared he has turned out all too hittable.
LHP TJ House CLE
-Good looking young arm.
LHP Kelvin De La Cruz CLE
-Injured, command a concern.
RHP Michael Main TEX
-Mystery fatigue disease has derailed him, but top notch stuff.
RHP Blake Beavan TEX
-I think he's ultimately a reliever.
OF Engel Beltre TEX
-Not sure what to think. Havent given up, of course. Still love the tools.
OF Wilkin Ramirez DET
RHP James Simmons OAK
1B/OF Sean Doolittle OAK
OF Greg Halman SEA
IF Carlos Triunfel SEA
OF Peter Bourjos LAA
C/1B Hank Conger LAA
RHP Will Smith LAA
RHP Tyler Chatwood LAA
RHP Carlos Rosa KC
RHP Danny Gutierrez KC
RHP David Bromberg MIN
LHP Tyler Robertson MIN
2B Scott Sizemore DET
OF Jordan Danks CWS
LHP Zach Britton BAL
LHP Kyle Lobstein TB
C Austin Romine NYY
Feedback is welcome, but a**hole comments will be met with the like. I apologize in advance for not listing your favorite prospect as high as you would like. This isnt meant as some sort of definitive list - consider it my preferences. Also, its still early and plenty of season is left... so although Im sure someone will dig up my comments at a later date, please remember this was a snapshot of one moment in time, and my list would probably be different tomorrow and different again the next day.
There are a lot of guys Im not settled on and I kept switching around. I could easily be convinced to swap them around again, so have at it.
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quick thoughts
it looks good. i mean, i have some different thoughts, but everyone grades/judges differently.
some random comments:
Michael Saunders at 13 and Josh Reddick at 14 seem a tad high to me. I mean … I think we’re thinking the same kind of solid all-around guys, not too flashy, but consistent, solid players. That said … at 13/14, personal taste for me is to have a bit more star power, and I’m just not sure that either does it for me, but that’s me. High floors don’t really guarantee a starting spot, so if these guys struggle, and someone “flashy” is available, or a solid vet (moreso in Boston’s case on the vet part, I guess, as Seattle has little reason to not to try Saunders unless they get a better young talent), they seem like guys that could be unfairly put aside. This isn’t the best way to explain my thoughts, but it’s early in the morning.
Carter and Chisenhall both seem a tad high to me – that makes them top 50 overall guys basically, and while I can buy the latter based on the upside, he’s also far away and hasn’t made that AA leap yet, and Carter has enough warts for me to not like him as the 15th overall prospect in the AL. But again, tis me.
I want to know more on Seattle’s Aumont plans … makes me wary of having him there. Aren’t there mechanical issues, iirc?
I think Moustakas should go a tad higher, but if he keeps up his recent hot streak, he might deserve to go higher.
I’m a big fan of McAllister, so I might be a tad biased, but I think his combination of track record and solid middle of the rotation projection, plus being in the upper levels, would deserve top 50 nod.
Anyhow, fairly solid list overall and a good read.
Current plans for Aumont
Reliever. Jack Zduriencik and Tony Blegino have both said that Aumont profiles more as a reliever and that he’d be on a fast track to the majors as one. Recently, they both said they “reserve the right to change their minds” at a later date, but that’s the current plan.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 12, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
You're going to run into resistance with your Carter viewpoint
You seriously don’t have Carter as a top 50 overall prospect? Have you SEEN his statline this year? Every prospect has warts; Carter has used Dr. Scholl’s Wart Remover to great results this season. His defense is suspect, but good enough for him to play the field at an acceptable level. His K rate is down. His average is absolutely ridiculous for a power hitter.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 12, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
okay
I just don’t think Carter’s a top 50 prospect. That isn’t a knock on him, but gut feeling is, if I worked through a list, I could probably come up with 50 guys that I personally prefer to rank over him.
feliz
Out of desperation, since my hitting is collapsing and I am trying to stave off hard-charging comp to stay in first, I just dealt Feliz for Ibanez. I am going to regret that for years to come. Oh well. They make more prospects every year.
Was Brett Wallace just missed due to the recent trade?
I’d think he’d have to at least be somewhere on the page.
Yes
I missed him. Good catch. I actually did have him on there in a preliminary list and I must have deleted him by accident. Im not a huge fan. Lack of power concerns me… probably slip him in around Weglarz-Hosmer…?
Wallace’s career SLG% is nearly the same as Smoak’s, better if you take out Smoak’s 2hr and a triple in 6 AZL rehab ABs. He’s also having success at AAA while Smoak, well, isn’t (BABIP aside). They’re the same age, were drafted 2 picks apart, and Wallace’s college numbers were better. At least on this site, Smoak is generally considered top 5 while Wallace is borderline top 25.
Is it just about the body? Does Wallace actually get dinged b/c he plays such a bad 3b? I can’t imagine he’s that much worse that Smoak at first if he’s passable at third. Seems to me a tossup, but then again, I’m an Oakland homer. ;)
Smoak is an elite defensive 1B. Wallace just has no range at all.
Good hands and an average arm. He’s not really passable at 3B. I mean, he can play the position in the sense that he can field balls that are hit to him, but even with a move to 1B, he won’t be nearly as good as Smoak over there.
Tools Whore
Smoak's not nearly a top 5 player IMO
If you’re a first baseman/DH type, and you want to be in that kind of company, your bat had better have no questions— I mean, none at all. You need to have low strikeouts, massive power, elite walk rate, and high BABIP and maintain it through basically any minor league stop that’s not a small sample. You’d better have impeccable scouting reports, too.
Montero fails that test in his “1B/DH” persona, too, incidentally, although he might (haven’t sat down and really tried to do a top 50 list yet) squeak in on the off chance that he can catch.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Who would meet this standard out of recent prospects?
Matt Wieters (if he moved to DH) and ???
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Sep 9, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
well
-I dont for a second buy Wallace at 3B. I also dont think he’ll be a plus defender at 1B even. He’s not mobile at all and its going to get worse, not better.
-I completely buy Smoak developing a lot more power and I have serious questions about Wallace’s power ceiling.
-Smoak has less of a platoon split than Wallace, being a switch hitter and all.
-I see Smoak regularly hitting for a higher AVG than Wallace.
-I see Wallace as a patient hitter, but Smoak as an OBP machine.
-AAA performance wasnt really a big factor in my placement of the two.
I like Wallace plenty, but like Smoak more. Contact hitting, switch hitter/platoon issues, defense and patience. Not a huge difference and they are similar, but its a matter of degree. Also, as I said above, a large part of Smoak’s ranking was his being a “sure thing” in my mind. Wallace’s power gives me reservations right now, just as much scouting wise as numbers wise…
Points taken
Though I have to point out that Smoak is the one you should have platoon concerns about. Wallace has smashed lefties, and actually has a negative platoon split. Smoak has struggled from the right side since turning pro.
Some notes on the Mariners guys...
I like the Saunders ranking pretty well. Hits for contact, good approach, decent power, good footspeed/defense. These kinds of guys get criminally underrated and easily forgotten. His ceiling is something like Markakis with more footspeed or McLouth with less power and more defense. Just because he doesn’t have “superstar” potential doesn’t mean he’s not a championship team type player.
Liddi isn’t really much of a prospect… I know his numbers look pretty good but he’s a future LF/RF/1B. And his bat isn’t at the level that you would expect… Decent sleeper pick, though, if his power develops and he learns how to handle breaking stuff.
Halman is basically lost at the plate with absolutely no improvement. He is sitting with a 40.1% K rate right now. He’s probably got a less than 10% chance of seeing the majors as a regular ever.
Saunders
His hitting numbers aren’t all that impressive, but then again they aren’t bad and he is still young. But BA dn scouts seem to like him, and yeah, he is suppose to be good on defense. He could develope into a Jim Edmonds type, I suppose. It’s funny, here is a top 25 guy per BA in the majors nowm, and no one in my 12 team league has snagged him yet (of course, now they will).
re: Saunders
It’s weird to me how some guys get labeled as “all-around” players and maybe not have eye popping numbers and thus get underrated. For example, Saunders has better stats than lets say Laporta, while being 2 years younger at the same level. Add on top of that Saunders is much better defensively, but Laporta is still valued more as a prospect?
good point
although laporta is in a different league (as in the International league). But indeed, if saunders is so much better on D, he is a better prospect you’d think. LaPorta’s slash line last year looks better though.
Without the NL, it isn’t even worth looking at this list in my opinion. Hell, you don’t even know if these guys will actually be in the NL or if the guys currently playing for a NL team will stay in the NL. Leaving out half of baseball because AL happens to own 4 of the 6 largest market teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels) while the NL happens to own the bottom 4 (Nationals, Pirates, Padres, Marlins) and their teams are setup with an extra above average hitter in their lineup who only has to play half the game really seems to be faulty logic. Sine 90% of the people on the message board are probably interested in prospects because of fantasy baseball, are you in AL only leagues?
At quick glance, doesn’t seem to be much emphasis placed on positional value either with Smoak #1(which again makes me think this has an extreme fantasy baseball focus).
tyler flowers needs to be in this somewhere.
he is certainly not behind all of hudson, danks and viciedo in the white sox system.
White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry
by larry on Aug 12, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Brandon Snyder
I’m constantly amazed by how little respect he gets. I know he’s not an elite prospect, but he’s put up very good numbers over the last couple years, is in AAA, and is still only 22. His ceiling might not be that high, but I think his floor is also fairly low. I see him as a guy who can put up consistent .300/.360/.480 type seasons — .320/.400/.525 at his peak maybe —and averagish defense at 1b. I think he deserves to be in the 45-50 range.
Zach Britton
IMO, should be in the 30-40 range. Dude has a 3.19 GO/AO, and he is striking out more than 8 per 9. His numbers are very similar to Trevor Cahill’s last year. While Britton is 21 in Hi A and Cahill pitched in Hi A at 20, I think that is made up for by the fact that Britton is left-handed.
re: what's not to like about Jennings
IMO, there’s a legitimate gripe about his injury history. He’s stayed healthy this year, but this is the first time it’s happened.
Can’t comment on the non-Rays, but I get the feeling that Barnese is getting overrated by many. To the best of my knowledge, he’s still mostly a one-pitch pitcher, and his statistics appear to be luck-aided this year.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
+1
I feel Barnese is overrated as well. His K rates have gone down, and his FIP and tRA rates are dissapointing(for him atleast). I used to think he was better than Moore at the beginning of the year, but I opinion changed, big time. I actually value McEachern over Barnese right now, crazy as it may sound. Barnese is good, but not lights out good.
I didn't say I wasn't flawless, but I damn sho' don't tarnish!
Its true
and I had him lower when I first did it. Then I thought: Is he really that different from Knapp? Dont they have the same weaknesses? Thought I was being unfair to Barnese. I like lots of guys on this list with a good fastball and iffy secondary stuff. Barnese is young and projectable and many expect him to throw harder before its all over. I also trust the Rays to develop pitchers better than pretty much anyone. Really, Barnese’s ranking is based more on his fastball and his projectability than it is his results – which I find encouraging, but by no means determinative.
I was going to say the same thing
Can he hold up for 150 games in an MLB outfield? I have my doubts. The skills are certainly there, but I hate ranking injury-prone guys highly. Call it a Travis Buck complex if you will.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Hmm
See, I still like Travis Buck a good deal.
I never want to overlook a guy b/c of injury concerns. I feel like Ive been burned pretty badly by this in the past. I take it into consideration, of course, but for the most part I try to assume some sort of healthiness. If a guy I like doesnt make it b/c of injuries… well, that’s the one variable Im okay with ruining my projections. Health is a skill, but for prospects its very dangerous to assume health is a stable skill. These are young kids and they often settle down injury wise as they learn their own bodies and what they can take and start training better.
For my money, overreacting to a perception of “injury prone” is a quick way to miss out on some of the most talented players.
Grant Desme is starting to get the so-underrated-he's-overrated thing going now
Corey Brown was drafted before him and has consistently received better grades in tools from BA. There’s no question that Desme is having a great season, but Corey Brown has also posted great numbers this year when he’s been in the lineup, and he wins any possible showdown with Desme on the issue of durability.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Brown doesn’t have Desme’s speed, but he seems to have equal power. Brown is a level ahead of Desme, but that’s likely because Desme missed an entire season due to a wrist injury. Based on purely stats, I’d take Desme over Brown. Upon moving up to Stockton last year, Brown’s SLG went up as expected; however, his OBP dropped 37 points. Desme RAISED his OBP upon moving up to Stockton by 49 points. I’d rank Desme slightly ahead of Brown at this point; his ceiling seems to be slightly higher.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 12, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully both end up above avg players
dont really care who ranks better at the moment. The A’s are desperate for future offense and need to start producing home grown hitters. Buck was supposed to be good, hasnt happened in the last 2 yrs. Suzukiabove avg player for his position. Other than that its been slim pickings. We’ve seen everidge/pennington do well in liited AB’s but they dont have a ton of upside. That 07 draft hopefully has better results with Brown, Desme, Doolittle. Followed by Weeks and others later on.
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 12, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What about the fact that Brown is hitting .302/.375/..535 this year at Midland?
While cutting down his K rate a lot? And the fact that Desme missed an entire year hurts his prospect status.
Brown’s decline in K rate this year actually makes me believe that he’ll have a good (well, better) chance of panning out. I wasn’t so high on him before. Desme still has a long ways to go.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 12, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I see Desme as basically being where Brown was a year ago, but Brown’s made a LOT of progress in that year.
Desme’s K rate is scary-high, and his walk rate isn’t particularly great. Brown’s shown better plate discipline so far.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Brown's BB rate this year is 8.5%
Desme’s is 9%. If Desme’s walk rate isn’t great, neither is Brown’s.
I’m not saying I don’t like Brown, I’m saying I like them both, but like Desme slightly more just because he seems to have more “potential”. Brown has a slightly higher probability of panning out, though he’s had his issues too. Brown has also missed half the season this year, so his stats aren’t exactly a full sample size in AA.
OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids
by CaliforniaJag on Aug 12, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hm
My apologies, I was just eyeballing it.
I was going to say something about Brown playing center and Desme playing a corner, but I realized I actually have no data at all about where they’ve been playing this season. The “positions” on milb.com are often wildly inaccurate— does anyone know a place where in-season minor league fielding data (just the basics— games played at each position, putouts, assists, etc) is kept?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
minorleaguesplits.com
Has a breakdown of hitting stats for each position a player has played at. Desme has 298 PA’s as a CF out of 480 total PA’s, with a combined 121 between LF and RF, and then 61 as a DH. Brown has all but 14 PA’s as a CF.
I know it doesn’t answer the fielding question, but it does give an idea of where they’ve been playing.
RIP Nick Adenhart
It gives hints
especially when the organization knows defense, as the A’s generally seem to (although the D has been pretty wretched this season overall— thanks, Orlando Cabrera!).
I think the comparison grades out thusly:
Power: Even
Average: Slight edge to Brown
Walk rate: Even
BABIP: Even
Baserunning: Slight edge to Desme
Defense: Slight edge to Brown
It’s pretty damn close, actually. I think the only thing that’s really swaying me is that Brown’s done stuff in AA and Desme hasn’t.
Thanks for the hat tip, BTW.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
The odds of either one panning out prob isnt that great.
But if one does the A’s will have one nice OFer.
"Carter's 25-game hitting streak isn't any normal streak. He's 46 for 97 (.474 average) during the run, adding 16 walks and compiling 81 total bases in the process. I'm out of superlatives for what he's doing." - Kevin Goldstein
Don't like Smoak #1
I think he is a great prospect, but #1 in the AL is high. He has great plate discipline, but as a 1B, he will have to put up better numbers than his 1 HR every 30 ABs and a .851 OPS for me to even consider him over Montero, Santana, Tillman, and Jennings.
RE: Tigers
Don’t think a whole lot of Wilkin Ramirez. He has the upside I suppose, but doesn’t play defense, and can’t make contact. Maybe in a few years. Replace his mention with Avila and call it good.
I must be the only person on the planet who doesn't find Tyson Gillies "that" special.
I mean, he and Ezequiel Carrera are exactly the same, but nobody cares about him.
Not sure mentioning Danny Cortes is a good idea. Juan Ramirez is fine if you consider where he’s pitching half his games. Triunfel and Liddi mentions are cool, though Liddi’s case is obvious.
Other Mariner prospects, how’s about some Adam Moore? Want a sleeper? How’s about some Nick Hill? Want a 2009 draftee that’s looking good so far? Pick one from the Rich Poythress, James Jones, Kyle Seager crowd?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 12, 2009 8:52 PM EDT reply actions
I actually like Carrera too, but Gillies has really impressed me this year and Im starting to buy into a good portion of it being non park related improvement.
Is Moore staying at Catcher? Everything Ive heard is negative. Dont care for him anywhere else.
Tried to stay away from 09 draftees… just dont know enough yet. Plan to revisit that stuff once the games end.
Moore should stick at catcher
the only problem he has that I have heard of is his recieving skills. As a result he has given up a significant amount of passed balls. His arm is a positive but nothing else about his defense is special in a positive or negative sense.
Continuing on the Mariners prospects, I agree with TIF, in that you are overrating Gillies. I am a big fan of his and he has really impressed in jumping from SS to A+ this year. However, he is being overhyped from his futures game preformance. His only really refined skills are his defense and speed. He has shown little power considering his small XBH % and that has been inflated from HD. Also, while his plate discipline is impressive I would wait to see how it survives in AA, and BB rates transition poorly to the MLB. Carrera has a lower ceiling but Gillies needs to play at a higher level. I just do not see pitchers walking him so much at higher levels with so little pop in his bat.
Ramirez is still being slept on in my opinion. He is pitching in one of the toughest environments for a pitcher and has a developing repetoire of secondary pitches.
I agree with Truinfel and Halman being left off. They were both severely overrated last year and have being hurt helped neither. Halman has immense potential but unfortunately has low odds to suceed.
by tdot mariner fan on Aug 13, 2009 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I should also say It is a great list overall
Only a few objections; I would probably drop Kalish about 10, Hagadone down to the honorable mentions, and Christ Carter to 35. Saunders should be below Moore and Reddick goes up to take his place. Also, I agree with John in that I see Revere as better than Hicks at this point.
by tdot mariner fan on Aug 13, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Christ Carter?
Typo, or sarcasm?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I don't get
All the “hate” on Carter.
I’m probably way off-base here, but if Montero is also a 1B/DH/OF guy, is he really THAT much better of a prospect than Carter?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
Very good list, Alskor
I think this is one of the better lists I’ve seen posted here recently. I like that guys like Rizzo and Kalish got some recognition here. Hopefully there’s an NL list in the near future!
I do agree that Flowers should be at least an HM. Did you post a comment about him, Alskor? IMO, Borbon should an HM also. What do you think of him?
Where would you rank some of the top guys that havent signed, like Ackley, Green, Crow and White?
Also, did you consider a couple guys that just got traded to the AL: Zach Stewart and Josh Bell?
Thanks
and thanks to all who responded.
Ive been discussing Flowers over on the thread about him. Im not a fan and dont think he’s a catcher. Just another big dude who hits well enough to be a major leaguer but probably cant play anywhere but 1B. He could still change my mind, as he’s not terrible defensively. He’s not a clown back there like Montero – he’s just slow and unathletic. I do like his approach and bat considerably… but if Im ranking him against 1B he’s waaaayyyy down my list.
I do like Borbon. Thought I had him in the HMs… must have slipped my mind. Not a great ceiling, though.
Ackley, Green and Crow are going to be quite high on my list going into next year. Love Green.
In retrospect I absolutely should have included comments on Stewart and Bell. Trade deadline was so crazy this year a lot got lost in the shuffle… uh… in my head… Feel like there’s a few more of these guys I missed who came across, but Im blanking right now. Plus, I actually included far more guys than I had intended… so at some point I just cut it.
Stewart is a pretty exciting arm, whether in relief or starting. That was a steal. Bell could be seriously underrated right now. Concern is his defense, but Ive read some positive things there.
Remember when everyone was arguing over who was better between Heyward and Moustakas?
Yeah, that was funny. :-)
Josh Bell?
Now up to .305/.395/.515 on the season in AA.
yeah, wtf
how can there be no mention of Josh Bell ???
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 15, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I like the list alskor
although I will say some of the rankings look odd mainly because I’m used to seeing combined lists. Lots of guys on here I like, I own #‘s 7, 13, 14, and 31 in a startup dynasty league as part of my 25 man roster, and I hope to add quite a few more from the list(plus some NL prospects) in next week’s 20 round MiLB draft.
Thanks for doing this, the effort is much appreciated.
RIP Nick Adenhart
Good work on the list, but I still can't accept ANY list that has Ynoa
A year after being signed and he still hasn’t pitched. Also, he’s been hurt. I just can’t justify putting him on ANY list (He probably wouldn’t even be on my Top 20 Oakland list, just because he has literally done NOTHING. He’s a fictional character at this point).
by thejd44 on Aug 26, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions
Couple of comments
Nice list. Ynoa is high. Lots of Rangers high. Britton could be higher. Manny Banuelos should be an HM. Brett Wallace could be on here. I like Giavotella as an HM. Maybe Lars lower. Melville higher? I kind of like him.
And if this is meant to be for 2010
Tillman and maybe Matusz won’t be eligible. LaPorta and Wade Davis will likely come close, but miss.
Lou Marson could be on the list
ur not a sox fan at all..
ur sox rankings are WAY too high, and you kept off some better yankee prospects. nice job dude!
by schmosterballs92 on Sep 10, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions
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