Smoak vs. Davis

by tt68 on Aug 11, 2009 11:51 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

Smoak is consensus top 10 prospect according to this site. I think everyone that has posted a top list has him somewhere in the top 10. If not in the top 10 then the top 20. However, the last month or so has given us an interesting case study for prospecting. Chris Davis and Jusin Smoak have played the last 30 games or so on the same team against the same pitchers in the same parks. In that time Davis has way outperformed Smoak. Here are their respective lines:

Davis .325/.400/.532 126AB 15BB 30 K's

Smoak .211/.318/.323 133AB 21 BB 29 K's

Obviously this sample size is too small to for use in forming a conclusive opinion of the two hitters. Obviously Smoak is being ranked based on scouting reports and AA numbers, not his above performance. The great thing is we are able to compare those as well. In the above comparison Smoak is 9 months younger. But in the below Davis is 3 months younger. Here are their AA lines.

Smoak .328/.449/.481 183 AB 39BB 35 Ks

Davis(2008) .333/.376/.618 186 AB 13BB 44K's

It is clear that Smoak shows a significant advantage in plate discipline at this level and there is no doubt he will continue to hold that advantage over what Davis has done so far at the major league level. But it is also clear that Davis has a significant advantage in ISO power at both levels.

What is the point of this post? I think this is another example of hype and the fallacy of a can't miss prospect. Pretty much everyone has given up on Davis...and rightfully so. He was abysmal in the MLB this year. But what if he would have never been promoted? What if he was block at the major league level and maintained his above triple slash line at AAA for this entire year? Would he be ranked similar to Smoak or way below?

I think there is a good chance that Davis figures things out and goes on to have a long career at the major league level...similarly I think there is a good chance of that happening for Smoak as well. However, there is also a significant percentage chance that neither has a productive big league career. I have had a lot of luck in my fantasy league because I get that 3 or 4 out of 10 guys like Smoak don't make it as big leaguers. When evaluating every prospects value compared to a current major league player there needs to always be a certain percentage chance that they fail that is factored into their value.

This case study was interesting to me because their minor league numbers have so much in common contextually and numerically.

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They're very different players

But It’s way, way too early to count out Davis. It’s obvious that the problems he had at the ML level were predicated on a mechanical issue, which seems to have been remedied. Going forward, I think he’s a lot closer to 2008 Davis than 2009 Davis; 30%ish K-rate, 8%ish walk rate, huge power (35 HR over a full season seems reasonable) high LD rates and almost no GBs.
Smoak is likely to be a John Olerud type. This doesn’t excite people, but Smoak’s got a floor that’s higher than the output of the Rangers’ current first baseman. Additionally, there’s always the possibility that the power comes in time (Morneau, A-Gon, etc), as he’s shown that he has the ability to put a charge into the ball.
Overall, I’d give the edge to Smoak, as would nearly everyone. But I still really, really like Davis going forward.

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by Conjunction on Aug 12, 2009 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How is Smoak "likely to be a John Olerud type"?

Olerud? Who almost hit .400? I HATE when people use him as a comp and are only thinking about late career Olerud. Smoak and him are not much alike at all.

Smoak will hit for plenty of power. Smoak right now is a much better prospect than Chris Davis ever was.

by alskor on Aug 12, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Olerud's career line

.295/.398/.465. 14.4% walk rate, 13.4% K rate. ISO of .170. That reads exactly like Smoak to me.

Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
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by Conjunction on Aug 12, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair point

The two halves of Olerud’s career are very different though, and his peak is strange.

I really see a higher ISO in Smoak, too. I see what youre saying, though.

by alskor on Aug 12, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two halves?

Olerud was a solid hitter except for the 2 years where he sold his soul to the devil

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by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"huge power (35 HR over a full season seems reasonable)"

How many people consider 35 HR/season “huge power”? it’s nice power, but I wouldn’t call it huge. Semantics maybe, but I think of huge power as more of a 40+ HR/season guy. Ryan Howard for example, has huge power.

by slickterp on Aug 12, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miguel Cabrera lead the AL with 37 HRs last year…gone are the days of the 50 hr man. If Howard is your benchmark, well, there’s only one Ryan Howard.

by NRC on Aug 12, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

35 as an average

Is a massive number. How many players have maintained 35 HR/season for the past 5 years? The last 3? Not many.

Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert

by Conjunction on Aug 12, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last 3 (2006-2008), avg 35 HR

Howard
Dunn
Pujols
Fielder
Dye

by aCone419 on Aug 12, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plenty of power? i think right now he looks to be a 20-25hr type of hitter, probably 25-30hrs since he plays in texas. i’m surprised to see smoak struggle so much, but i think he’ll be alright in the end.
it seems more likely that smoak will be a successful ballplayer, maybe not an all star but it’s hard to see him not be at least an avg hitter. meanwhile when i think of chris davis i keep on thinking of brandon wood v2.0

by bk11 on Aug 12, 2009 5:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

during that stretch...

Davis’ BABIP is .396, while Smoak’s is about .250

If Davis maintained a .396 BABIP for an entire year at any level, it would be truly amazing. Not only b/c that would be incredibly lucky, but also b/c he has such poor strike zone judgement.

And I don’t know that anyone would really argue that Davis has and will always have more power than Smoak. That’s basically a given.

by slickterp on Aug 12, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

But pure power doesn’t always translate to Home runs. Josh Hamilton has more pure power ability than anyone in baseball, but that doesn’t put his power numbers in line with Pujols’.

Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert

by Conjunction on Aug 12, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs