the rise of gio gonzalez

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 11, 2009 5:06 PM EDT

His last 4 starts vs the yankees, red sox, rangers, and orioles have gotten some attention. Seems like he's been on the prospect radar for awhile having been involved in several major trades, leading the minor leagues in K's a couple yrs ago, etc. After a tough mlb audition in 08, he fell off the radar. At 23 and still with rookie eligibility hes salvaged some of his value and has shown steady improvement in recent weeks. So does he still profile as a decent back rotation SP or will the stretches of bad control always be his downfall? Early on there was some ideas of making him a reliever since he was passed up by Anderson, Cahll, and others. Any thoughts on Gio Gonzalez?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461829

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/sweetspot/0-4-155/A-s-Gonzalez-shows-promise.html

I'm still not convinced of two things:

1. "Short shutout" is a better term than "shortout" (or "short-out").

2. Gio Gonzalez is going to make it.

Since rejoining the A's in late June, Gonzalez is 5-4 with a 5.23 ERA. Of course that's nothing special, but there's one disastrous start in there. Take out that one, and Gonzalez has been just fine for a 23-year-old starting pitcher who's getting just his second taste of the Big Boy League.

Olney today on Gio's start:

A. Baltimore hitters went 0-for-9 against off-speed pitches, including 0-8 against curveballs. On the season, hitters have a .083 batting average off Gonzalez curveballs (5-60).
B. He threw at least one of the first two pitches for a strike 96 percent of the time.
C. Fifty-eight percent of plate appearances lasted three pitches or less.

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Comments

i've heard

he’s got filthy stuff but is a head case. is this right?

by son.of.sourman on Aug 11, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions

Gio needs a 3rd pitch if hes to have continued success.

by Syphon on Aug 11, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

big red flag on Gio

for me was the fact that he was a pitcher who relied on his fastball, but didn’t even throw it consistently over 90.

Now, according to fangraphs, he’s added 2 MPH to his average fastball speed.

He’s also getting a lot more groundballs.

I’d still take Anderson and Cahill ahead of him, even with Cahill’s horrible season and continued horrible L/R splits.

by Galt on Aug 11, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions

I'm assuming he'll turn back into a pumpkin at some point

He kinda reminds of Jonathan Sanchez minus the velocity. And I don’t intend that to be a compliment.

Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.

by walk off bunt on Aug 11, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions

This does not square with your sigline.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I really ought to change it

But I love Always Sunny more than I hate TJ surgery.

Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.

by walk off bunt on Aug 11, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Even before the TJS, though, Gonzalez was pretty much universally acknowledged as the better prospect...

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

I always felt Outman was a lower ceiling/higher floor type, compared to Gio, and with his control problems, Gio feels to me like one of the bigger bust risks among acknowledged top prospects.

But I’m also often wrong about these things.

Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.

by walk off bunt on Aug 11, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Although to clarify

I’m not a huge huge Outman backer or anything. I just liked that his name jived with the Dayman song.

Outman, fighter of the Hitman, champion of the K, he's a master of scoreless innings and friendship for everyone.

by walk off bunt on Aug 11, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Gio has been "passed up" by Cahill

I think Gio is the better major league pitcher right now, and he might continue to be for the next year or two. Cahill’s ceiling might be higher, but I think Gio is going to really open some eyes over the next year-plus.

by thejd44 on Aug 11, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions

Cahill really needs to be sent down as soon as possible

He’s not even pitching at a AAA level right now, much less an MLB one. The A’s are wasting his service time and potential by continuing to run him out there.

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutley.

by Syphon on Aug 11, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

and they should see if Eveland can get it together now before having to cut him next year because he is out of options.

Dating girls is like starting pitching depth, you think you have a good full rotation, even too many starters, then in an instant as soon as you trade your depth away injuries decimate your rotation and you are forced to start Sidney Ponson.

by designatedforassignment on Aug 11, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I think they're worried about what sending him down will do to his psyche

There’s really no other reason to keep him up when he’s so clearly not ready.

Actually, with the number of innings he’s thrown, it also wouldn’t be a bad idea to just send him to Sacramento and shut him down for the year.

by thejd44 on Aug 12, 2009 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions

How much is getting repeatedly hammered helping his psyche?

As far as innings go, he probably shouldn’t go much beyond 150, so that’s what, 3 starts? He could definitely get that many in at AAA before the regular season is over there.

by PaulThomas on Aug 12, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

If you take out that stinker against the Twins

The numbers in his last six games are 31.2 IP, 7 ER, 24 HA, 14 BBI, 36 Ks, 4 wins and 0 losses.

by Willigan on Aug 11, 2009 7:07 PM EDT reply actions

That's a TON of walks

You normalize that BABIP, and the earned runs increase and he’s not looking too impressive.

I will admit, he’s done much better. The walks are very troubling. He had some real bad luck at the beginning, and has had some real good luck recently.

by Galt on Aug 11, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions

he's getting by with high walks by allowing so few hits.

Wont last tho. He needs a 3rd pitch.

by Syphon on Aug 11, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

A ton?

I like hyperbole more than the next guy, but that’s just not so. That’s a lower walk rate than Clayton Kershaw has shown this season. (In fact, the only real differences between the two of them are in HR rate and BABIP.)

I’d call more than 6 walks per 9 innings “a ton”. 4-ish is too many, but it’s not “a ton.”

by PaulThomas on Aug 12, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Uh...about normalizing that BABIP...

This is a rough procedure, but assuming that none of those outs were DP’s, then 31.2 IP = 95 batters, plus the 24 hits that he coughed up = 119 total at bats. Subtract out the 36 Ks = 83 balls in play. 24 hits on 83 balls in play = .289 BABIP. If anything, his BABIP is probably higher, due to GIDPs meaning fewer balls in play. In other words, that’s about what you would expect for someone who’s K/9 > 10.

by speckops on Aug 12, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions

FYI

Over those six starts, his FIP (which effectively normalizes BABIP) was in the vicinity of 2.80.

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by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Plus when it comes to Gio, "stinkers" aren't exactly anomalies

It wouldn’t surprise me if he had a career path similar to Wandy Rodriguez. That curveball is so good, Gio would be able to do some real damage with it if he can just cut down on the walks and the implosion outings. It just might take him a while to get there.

by jibs on Aug 11, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Great comp

OrtizItThisOne: In the name of baseball! /does steroids

by CaliforniaJag on Aug 11, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I would definitely say that he has frontline starter potential

But his likelihood of reaching that is slim. His stuff is fantastic, but it’s difficult for him to control it sometimes. His last four starts, he’s attacked the zone and pitched ahead most of the time, and that’s led to success. His curveball is one of the best pitches in the Oakland A’s system, and that often leads hitters to be behind his 90ish fastball.

I’d definitely be skeptical of those four starts before I’d say he’s figured it out, but some people wrote him off fairly quickly when he struggled last year, and that’s not fair, either.

If you think Billy Beane is a bad GM, I hate you and find you stupid.

by NateHST on Aug 11, 2009 9:13 PM EDT reply actions

He's always struggled a bit at the beginning after a promotion, then settled in.

Obviously, it’s too soon to draw any concrete conclusions but the guy definitely has the stuff to make it as a frontline starter. The questions are will he be able to sustain his control and keep a level head. I’d also like to see him use his changeup more and consistently throw it for a strike.

"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT

by travdog6 on Aug 11, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions

Typical curveball artist

When its on he looks dominant, when its off he looks like a BP pitcher.

by alskor on Aug 12, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions

Watching him

His best pitch is definitely his curveball, but I think his success depends on getting his fastball over. Though his fastball isn’t an outstanding pitch, it’s good enough to get him enough strikes for the curve to do its work. His problem comes when he gets behind batters, forcing him to rely solely on the curveball, which often misses – hence the walks, hence the problems.

One other point; I realize this is a tiny sample size but I wonder if he has a problem lasting. In both the Rangers and Orioles game, he seemed to collapse at the start of the 7th inning, despite only having pitched in the area of 80 pitches. The fastball stopped going over the plate, and then the troubles began.

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by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions