Ben Revere vs Michael Brantley

by ProspectTube.com on Aug 10, 2009 3:23 PM EDT

As everyone knows by now, Revere was a 1st round pick in 2007 (seen as a reach at the time), had an impressive 08 campaign, and was considered one of the the top prospects in baseball by BA (#59), BP (#36), and this community (#56) entering the 09 season. Michael Brantley on the other hand was not considered a top 100 prospect by any of the above mentioned sources, and was borderline top 10 in his own system coming into this year. However, after comparing the two statistically, is there really that big of a gap between the two? Is Revere overrated or is Brantley underrated, I guess that's the question. (Defensively, both are thought of as big league CF'ers.)

I was surprised to learn that Brantley is only one year older than Revere, yet is already in the middle of a full season in AAA. Brantley's 09 campaign has been severly hurt by a low BAPIP, which is really the only thing separating the two. In fact, if you compare both players statistically in their age 20 season (even though Brantley was in AA), you'd give the edge to Brantley. With both of them profiling as zero power, plus speed, plus plate discipline type of hitters, is it time we start reevaluating the prospect status of Brantley, or does Revere take a hit?

Ben Revere		Michael Brantley
5/3/1988		5/15/1987
5'9 165 lbs		6'2 180 lbs

Level	A+	AAA
ISOP	0.068	0.085
BABIP	.330	0.285
wOBA	.350	0.337
GB%	54	49
LD%	16	20
BB%	7.4	11.2
K%	6.9	9
SB	36	38
CS	15	5

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I don't understand

why anyone likes Revere at all. He’s old for his league, and really the only thing he’s got going for him is high batting average. As fielders improve, his BABIP will decline, so the average will start to fall.

And he has absolutely zero zero zero power, so his decent plate discipline will also be worth less as pitchers just groove balls down the middle knowing that he can’t hit it more than 200 feet.

And he’s not even a good base stealer.

by Galt on Aug 10, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions

I'm no Revere fan

but saying he’s old for his league is completely ridiculous. He’s 21 in A+ ball— even if he spends a full year at each level, he’s breaking into the bigs at 24.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2009 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions

revere’s ops is fed entirely by his avg… he doesn’t walk often enough and doesn’t hit for ANY power

when revere faces high level pitching he’s going to have to maintain that average to have any semblance of offensive value.

at least brantley has the ability to draw some free passes and with his size has the potential to hit for some power (he’s still 22)

i don’t know much about either’s defensive prowess although i did read somewhere that brantley (despite his speed) is a somewhat poor defender and won’t be able to stay in CF, in which case he’ll need to develop some power if a move to a COF position is in his future

by gorilla_baller on Aug 10, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

+1

I like this subject too, I think Brantley does get overlooked a bit, and I’m pretty sure I read the same thing on him likely moving to LF. Not your prototypical LF really, but Sizemore having the power he does, maybe it balances out a bit? I think Brantley and Trevor Crowe are essentially the same type player, maybe they platoon in LF(Brantley is better vs. RHP, Crowe vs. LHP)?

So we’ve got Revere who should be able to stay in CF but walks less and Brantley who walks a decent amount but has to move to LF likely. My guess is Brantley gets slightly overlooked by most while Revere gets overrated too often. I’d probably still put Revere higher though, because there is less offensive demand in CF and a COF spot, so he could hit a bit worse and still come out ahead if he plays plus D in CF.

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Aug 12, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Good post.

I’ve liked Brantley for a little while, and was disappointed to see him struggle this year, but you’ve pointed out that it’s his subpar BABIP that’s dragging down his numbers this year. If you use Minor League Splits’ neutralize tool, his BABIP jumps to .328, and his overall line to .310/.389/.401. Even with a ground ball oriented swing, he’s not going to post a .285 BABIP forever, not with that speed.

I’d been buying Revere as a future leadoff man, and while he still projects as such, you’ve done a nice job pointing out why he’s not exactly a superstar in the making. Last year’s .379/.433/.497 was a product of an insane .416 BABIP. Now that it’s normalized to .325 this year, he’s shown to be a slap hitter with excellent contact ability, but a free swinging approach. He has value, but he’s not an Ichiro-type freak — that’s not saying much, since nobody is, but it just means his upside is as a solid CF, not a game-breaking one.

by PhillyFriar on Aug 10, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

Ellsbury without the SB's and +Defense?

That’s what I see right now, although as a 21 year old, he could improve the SB% (although I don’t see many 50+ season out of him like Ellsbury), and the defense could come over time as well.

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by ProspectTube.com on Aug 11, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions