Atlanta Braves Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 12:50 PM EDT
48 comments
Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects in Review
This list was originally published October 23rd, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The grade listed is the OLD GRADE from before the season.
1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A-: How hitting .411/.492/.729 since reaching Double-A. Excellent plate discipline with improving power. Now the best prospect in baseball.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: Hitting .264/.317/.391 since reaching Double-A. Home run power a bit disappointing with just eight dings this year, but still a very fine prospect.
3) Thomas Hanson, RHP, Grade B+: 6-2, 3.22 with a 46/29 K/BB in 67 innings in the majors. Obviously very successful in his major league debut following excellent work in Triple-A.
4) Jordan Schafer, OF, Grade B+: Hit .204/.313/.287 in 50 major league games, now injured with a bad wrist. Was pushed to the majors without Triple-A experience and it showed.
5) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Traded to White Sox. Hitting .302/.426/.529 between Double-A and Triple-A. Defense remains a question but bat looks strong.
6) Cole Rohrbough, LHP, Grade B: 6.04 ERA with 76/40 K/BB in 89 innings for Class A Myrtle Beach. Strikeout rate way down from last year, development has gone backwards.
7) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: 3.16 ERA, 90/36 K/BB in 51 innings, 14 saves combined between A-ball and Double-A. Love the strikeouts, needs to lower walk rate.
8) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade B-: Traded to Pirates. Hitting .282/.331/.358 in Double-A, with poor plate discipline. Stock dropping.
9) Kris Medlen, RHP, Grade B-: 4.50 ERA with 48/22 K/BB in 46 major league innings. Looks like he's going to be a very useful pitcher.
10) Jeff Locke, LHP, Grade B-: Traded to Pirates. 5.03 ERA with 79/40 K/BB in 98 innings, 112 hits in the Carolina League. Development is stagnant right now.
11) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B-: 4.41 with a 112/45 K/BB in 102 innings for Class A Rome. Doing OK, still has a lot of forward potential.
12) Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade B-: 3.52 ERA with a 41/14 K/BB in 54 innings for Rome, currently on the DL with a sore elbow. Was doing well before he got hurt.
13) Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: 3.09 ERA with 99/22 K/BB in 117 innings between GCL Braves and Rome.
14) Brandon Hicks, SS, Grade C+: .223/.302/.315 for Double-A Mississippi. Lack of strike zone command has finally done him in, though at 23 there is still a chance he could improve.
15) Eric Campbell, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .246/.316/.322 for Mississippi. Strikeout rate is half that of Hicks, but otherwise numbers are similar.
16) James Parr, RHP, Grade C+: 4.50 ERA with 29/6 K/BB in 36 innings in Triple-A and GCL rehab, 5.79 in 14 major league innings with 12/5 K/BB. Held back by elbow problems.
17) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade C+: 3.53 ERA with 115/17 K/BB in 102 innings for Rome, 108 hits allowed. A personal favorite due to outstanding K/BB and K/IP ratios. Stock is rising.
18) Kala Ka'aihue, 1B, Grade C+: Hit .157/.302/.262 in Double-A, leading to his release. Signed with Oakland and is now in the California League. With Freeman on the way up there was no future for Ka'aihue in Atlanta, not sucking this badly.
19) David Francis, RHP, Grade C+: 4.25 ERA with 85/38 K/BB in 91 innings combined between Rome and Myrtle Beach, 100 hits allowed. Holding his own but I think he's capable of better.
20) Edgar Osuna, LHP, Grade C+: 3.77 ERA with 74/31 K/BB in 117 innings combined between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, 4.26 with 37/20 K/BB in 63 innings at the higher level. Doing OK.
I had Julio Teheran as a Grade C+ and in the 21-25 range, worried about injuries and command. He was lights out in the Appalachian League (2.68 ERA, 39/7 K/BB in 44 innings, 36 hits) and was just promoted to Rome.
The development of Hanson into one of the best young starters in the majors, and Heyward into the best offensive prospect in baseball, takes the sting out of some of the other failures. Schafer was rushed and got hurt, so while he no longer qualifies as a rookie due to playing time, I wouldn't give up on him by any means.
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Thank You JOHN!!!!
These are some of my favorite things from the site and I’m glad we get to revisit them.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Aug 10, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
seconded. this is a very worthwhile activity around this time in the season.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 10, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a great review I’m new to this site but love these posts! thanks!
by jamanningusmc on Aug 10, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reviews
This will be the main feature the rest of this month as I review the old lists.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Fun to look back
I know you have to cover a lot of real estate on doing these, but I just want to note that Randall Delgado is doing MUCH better than OK, especially with that K rate for a 19 year old, and his string of starts since July 22nd 31 Ks, 3 walks in 26 innings, with just 15 hits given up, and 4 runs. Another month of this and I think he’s one of the ten best pitching prospects in the game.
by gogotabata on Aug 10, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
delgado
Good point that he is doing much better lately.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
10 best is a bit much
Top 50 easy, maybe top 25. He’s still really far away.
by mraver on Aug 10, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
YES, YES, YES
See now this gets me excited.
by byronlhsdrmr on Aug 10, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Declining system
Due to a few trades and some lack of development this system has taken a bit of a step back this season. Also, their ‘09 draft (although you can’t say for sure) doesn’t look to impressive, headed by Mike Minor, David Hale and Mycal Jones. It seems to me that many of their prospects are mid-tier types (Kimbrel, Medlen, Rohrbough, Delgado and DeVall) following Heyward, Teheran and Freeman. I had forgotten you didn’t include Cody Johnson. Your thoughts on him now?
by byronlhsdrmr on Aug 10, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Adam Milligan
Any thoughts on him? Has he compiled enough at-bats to this point to form an opinion of him?
by royshowell on Aug 10, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’d love to hear John’s take on Milligan as well.
by gogotabata on Aug 10, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
I check Milligan’s line every day. And it usually does not disappoint.
by parish on Aug 10, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
milligan
Great power numbers and a high batting average so far. Negatives are smallish sample size and poor strike zone judgment. I want to see more through August and get some scouting reports.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dimaster Delgado
What do you think about the other Delgado in the Braves system? He has put up a 3.80 ERA in 68 innings with 76 K’s and 15 BB’s.
by atl14yearsschaffer on Aug 10, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
delgado
I don’t have any scouting reports at my fingertips for him right now, but the numbers and age/league factor are certainly promising.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lack of depth of offensive players
Other than Heyward and Freeman, who is overrated due to lack of power, the Braves have no position players ready to step in and contribute. Not good
by krgrecw on Aug 10, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bah...
A nineteen-year old holding his own at AA is not overrated.
by royshowell on Aug 10, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Catchers
True for the most part, but the Braves have a promising catcher or two in the low minors. Bethancourt (discussed below) looks promising.
by mraver on Aug 10, 2009 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He said ready to step in
I kind of have to agree with that.
Fortunately, the Braves have a lot of young position players already in the Majors (including Jordan Schafer) to man those positions. Heyward will fill one of their obvious holes.
Get veteran backups and hope Chipper will hold out.
by parish on Aug 11, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Christian Bethancourt
John, what are your thoughts on Christian Bethancourt’s season? I read an interview you did with Braves Nation before the season where you said there was doubts about his bat, but he’s seemingly had a very nice season for a 17 year old in the GCL.
by jibs on Aug 10, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bethancourt
Looks like he’s added some power, which is good to see. Strike zone judgment still questioanble, but sample size and level mitigate against any broad conclusions yet. Let’s see what the scouting reports look like. He’s so young that he could develop in any number of ways.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Devall
Apparently going under the knife, possibly for TJS. I saw reports that had his velocity down to 83-86 earlier this season.
by aCone419 on Aug 10, 2009 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Flowers
His overall line is excellent, but how worried should we be about his strikeouts? His contact rate is only like 69% (going by AB — even factoring in his walks and going by PA, he still strikes out 28% of the time). Does that mean struggles at the major league level next year? More time at AAA to get that under control?
by Joltin Joe Orsulak on Aug 10, 2009 9:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he should have stayed at AA
AAA is absolute death for prospects. it serves no purpose for a prospect like tyler flowers (or another couple of my guys, carlos carrasco and michael taylor) until after they’ve gotten a few dozen ABs or IP at the major league level, so they know specifically what to work on. sending a prospect to AAA, and to AAA midseason, at that, is just asking for failure.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 10, 2009 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why?
What exactly is the harm of him going to AAA? I mean, for Flowers, because he is striking out 18 times in 60 at-bats, and only walking twice, despite having previously walked at a good clip, he is struggling a bit there, although he has a nice batting average, does this show he has some issues, or are you saying AAA is somehow damaging him?
by wobatus on Aug 10, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 10, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pardon?
What does “it” mean?
You said AAA is absolute death for prospects. Why? A place for failed prospects or back-up depth for the 25 man major league squad, organizational guys. Not sure why it is so awful for a prospect to stop there on his way up.
by wobatus on Aug 10, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the harm of putting a guy like flowers (or michael taylor, for that matter) in AAA
is that AAA isn’t a situation where they can succeed easily. it’s not a level where raw talent takes over. it’s highly mechanical, and it’s corrosive to a player’s skillset. they start to think too much, they second guess themselves, and their whole batting approach falls apart.
AAA has a purpose, but if you’re promoting someone there midseason, it’s just counterproductive.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 10, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
now for the “it” question.
But are you saying it is not a good idea to challenge players with a level, somewhat below major league level, where they can’t just get by on raw skill? I figured it isn’t a bad thing for a hitter to go up against the Nelson Figueroas of the world.
by wobatus on Aug 10, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's counterproductive, is what i'm saying
when that guy reaches the majors, you want him to get by on raw talent, you want him to be fluid and natural. in AAA, pitchers will use that fluidity against you. they throw changeup after changeup, slider after slider, and after 2 months there, a hitters approach will go all to hell.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Aug 10, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see some actual evidence presented to back up these bald assertions
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 10, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that's a problem
when he hit BAIBP regression, his walk rate sky rocketed.
Yes his strike out rate is high, but it is high with all power hitters and his walk rate has kept pace
i'll delete your SSS existence in a second. there is nothing that allows SSS posters, at any one moment, to keep posting, but the mere pleasure of larry.
-larry
by blackoutsox on Aug 11, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cody Johnson
What’s your opinion on him, John? On the one hand, you have the 26 homers. On the other, you have the 134 strikeouts, and he wasn’t promoted when Heyward and Freeman were.
Also, who is Edison Sanchez, and where does he get off having a .469 OBP in rookie ball? Think that’s a baseball age he’s listed with?
by Mac T on Aug 10, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
too many ks
Too many strikeouts for my taste.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sanchez
i don’t know much about edison sanchez at this point.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Robinson Lopez
Has stuff that compares to Teheran and Delgado but the big knock on him was his command, so far his command has been great and he’s putting up good numbers. Can’t wait to see him against better comp.
by Jay212033 on Aug 11, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just my opinion...
…but I don’t think it was a lack of AAA that did Schafer in. He hit rather well in ST and then for the first week or two up until he injured his wrist. He hid the injury from the team doctors, even though it obviously effected his performance, until he re-injured it again a few weeks later, which led to the McLouth trade.
Just my two cents.
by bravesfan91 on Aug 11, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ummmmm...
the McLouth trade would have happened with or without Schafer being hurt (or a trade like it). However, it would not have been for McLouth and it would have involved Frailcour and some prospects for a RF (most likely Nelson Cruz).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 11, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Medlen
That guy has been an absolute bad ass since the break…
13.2 IP, 11 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 15 K, 1.32 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, .216 BAA
I’d trust that guy in any situation, right now. He’s going to be a very good pitcher out of the ’pen.
Speaking of relief, I’m wondering what the consensus is on Cory Gearrin and Benino Pruneda… Those two guys have a lot of potential, IMO. Gearrin’s another side-armer that generates lots of Ks and is hell on righties and passable vs lefties, and Pruneda is an undersized guy that can pump it up in the high 90’s, and has averaged 11.8 K/9 for his career. He just turned 21, and is already at High-A.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
by timmy3 on Aug 11, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Right now...
I think Medlen has the inside track on being next year’s closer. The Braves might sign someone, but if they don’t, Medlen’s the only guy currently under team control I can even imagine in the rolw.
by Mac T on Aug 11, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um.
Role. In the role. I don’t know what a rolw is.
by Mac T on Aug 11, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't worry...
…we “rolwed” with it.
by royshowell on Aug 11, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ortegano?
Any thoughts on Jose Ortegano? He’s been one of my favorites for two years now and no one seems to give him any love ever…
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
by ejruiz on Aug 11, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitcher of the Year
I am guessing that he will be the pitcher of the year for the organization.
Could be Spruill, though the demotion makes me wonder. Could be Hoover, who’s peripherals project better. But, I think the Braves will consider W-L, ERA, and tap Ortegano.
by parish on Aug 12, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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