Matt Wieters and Strikeouts
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 9, 2009 1:42 PM EDT
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PrintMatt Wieters has been an impressive player. He was pretty much the uncontested top prospect before the season (and deservedly so). Much of that had to do with his asskicking at AA (.365/.460/.625, 38/29 BB/K). He was pretty good, in other words, and the consensus was that he was going to be a very very good major league player for a very very long time.
Now, this is not a panic post (nor should it be, as Wieters is doing fine in the majors right now), but I'd like to look into his stats at the advanced levels a little more. First, his jump up to AAA this year worries me a bit. He saw opposite (and negative) changes in both BB% and K%, as both moved to career extremes. It wasn't really a problem, though, since his overall line at AAA was still .305/.387/.504, and the discipline could be written off as SSS. It should be noted that his other peripheral stats (such as LD%) improved at AAA, so again... This is not a panic post.
Here's the thing, though. The discipline stats took another big hit after being promoted to the majors. He's striking out nearly once a game, at a career-high 22.8% clip. He's stopped taking walks, too, with a career-low 7.3% rate. And, this time, his line seems to be affected, currently at .267/.321/.416. Wieters' luck stats seem to be normal, with a BABIP of exactly .320 and good GB/FB/LD splits.
My question is this: Since Wieters has been bothered by high strikeout totals at all levels except for AA, is it possible that the lack of strikeouts at AA was a fluke, and what we're seeing now is a result of a lack of plate discipline? I should again emphasize that I am not worried about Wieters long term; I still think he will be an effective major league catcher. But is the declining plate discipline something we should keep an eye on, and if so, how will it affect his long-term development?
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Not worried
It’s not surprising that his ratios have gotten worse as he has climbed the ladder. And a K% in the low 20s is nothing to be concerned about.
Let’s say (conservatively) that Wieters settles in to percentages like this:
BB%: 10.0% (7.3% so far in majors, 14.7% in minors)
K%: 20.0% (22.8% so far in majors, 15.3% minors)
BABIP: .330 (.320 so far in majors, .375 in minors)
ISO: .200 (.149 so far in majors, .234 in minors)
That’s roughly an .865 OPS (123 OPS+) out of a catcher. If he gets his K% down to 15% without moving any of the other ratios, that’s an ~.900 OPS (131 OPS+).
Either way, he’s one of the most valuable catchers in baseball.
Best OPS+ for catchers over the last decade:
Mauer 135
Posada 129
McCann 123
VMart 119
Pudge 112
This is about what I was looking for.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 9, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You were looking
for someone to post some arbitrary numbers somewhere between what he did in the minors and what he’s done in the mlb and draw the conclusions that he’ll improve from where he’s at now.
Proof once again
how rare it is for a player to step right into a MLB lineup and dominate. Seasons like Brauns or Longoria’s are the exception not the norm. I’m sure Weiters will make the adjustments and soon there will be a Wieters on Fire post.
Again
This was not a “HOLY SHIT HE’S STRUGGLING” post. I didn’t expect him to light the world on fire, and I actually don’t mind the numbers he’s put up.
Just wondering about the strikeouts.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 9, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
and how
extremely rare that the seasons that Bruan, Longoria, and even Soto had are extremely rare even for the most talented of hitters.
oh
and his K% in roughly 100 at bats is of no concern to me, and even at 20+% isn’t anything I’m going to get concerned about. I acutally don’t plan of making any determination of Wieters until probably this time next year. His main concern right now isn’t even in the batters box, well it is, but when he’s behind the plate. What acually concerns me more is how many SB’s he is giving up, but I’m also willing to cut him some slack here as well, as he can only gun down guys he’s got a chance to.
also, i wasn't looking at his K% in roughly 100 at-bats
It was about this bad at both A+ and AAA. The only time it WASN’T this bad was the ~225 ABs he had at AA.
What my post was asking was “Were the 225 AA ABs a fluke as far as strikeouts are concerned, will he always have a high strikeout total, and if so, what does it mean for his development?” It’s that simple, and in reality, it wasn’t even a performance-related post. I’m asking about Wieters offensive profile.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 9, 2009 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
Again, he only really came on late at AAA, and I’m sure with more time he would’ve leveled off.
Wieters started off pretty damn badly in Norfolk and horribly in Baltimore.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
It's pretty simple
he profiles at the worst a league average hitting catcher with a chance to be well above average. Nothing has changed since the biginning of the year.
This is a good point
Wieters has probably focused the VAST majority of his time in Baltimore on catching and not hitting.
Matt has really been on fire for the last few weeks and his discipline is improving.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
Unlike Chris Davis and his struggles,
Wieters is fine. He’s run K rates of 20.5% and 21.3% (SSS), so a small increase in strikeouts at the major league level should have been expected. His contact rate is slightly below average (78%) but he’s not swinging at garbage out of the zone (24.2%).
What you’re seeing here is just a player going through the motions. He’s still holding his own after 100+ PAs. ZIPs projects he’ll put up a .350 wOBA by the end of the season.
Not worried about this one.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 9, 2009 7:08 PM EDT reply actions
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