BA Top 25
by beane_bag on Jul 9, 2009 11:33 AM EDT
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Does anyone have a subscription to Baseball America to check out the recently posted midseason Top 25 prospects? Is it kosher to post that list for non-subscribers like me? :) I'm very curious to see some of the new names that they have included. I'm a bit surprised they made the article subscription only, as they usually allow at least some access to their rankings with more detail available to the paid subscribers.
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The list
1. Jason Heyward
2. Mike Stanton
3. Jesus Montero
4. Justin Smoak
5. Madison Bumgarner
6. Buster Posey
7. Carlos Santana
8. Chris Tillman
9. Brian Matusz
10. Logan Morrison
11. Freddie Freeman
12. Jarrod Parker
13. Neftali Feliz
14. Alcides Escobar
15. Yonder Alonso
16. Wade Davis
17. Dominic Brown
18. Desmond Jennings
19. Jason Castro
20. Tim Beckham
21. Brett Wallace
22. Matt LaPorta
23. Michael Taylor
24. Kyle Drabek
25. Michael Saunders
RE: ALVAREZ
I recall Justin Upton just seemingly being BORED in South Bend 3 years ago…maybe I am an Alvarez Apologist but I think he is an all star player multiple times. He has had knee problems most of the season and still has some very good outliers…I think he will make some of you regret thinking he was overrated
by gobuckeyes32 on Jul 10, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
I think Alvarez is getting hammered a little too hard. It’s too early to give up on the guy, and his performance hasn’t been completely terrible, his walk rate and power has been really good. His K rate and average has been bad.
Anyway, I don’t think anyone would argue that he’s got the talent to rattle off a couple of impressive months to end the season. The fact that they promoted him despite his struggles makes me wonder if there’s not more to it than we can see from his stats.
Poster formerly known as artie
I like it too
But I have a feeling a lot of people will think Freeman’s too high
I think Freeman might end up being this years Lars Anderson
A guy that was a little under hyped, that got extremely over hyped and then has a hard time sustaining his prospect ranking.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Take it down please
This has been gone over and over on this site – posting protected content is a major no-no.
this is NOT protected content
The list is posted on their blog.
The names and order is fine.
Posting the scouting reports is not.
Tools Whore
not posting all of them
but excerpting parts should be ok.
Neal before Zod!
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 11, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Escobar vs. Beckham
Am I a homer because I think Beckham should be higher? Escobar seems to be no more than an all-glove guy at this point: no power, no walks, and too many Ks to hit above .300 consistantly. Is the glove that good?
Huh?
Beckham already walks more, and he’s hitting for more power than Escobar ever did. He’s performing far better in A-ball as a 19 YO than Escobar did as a 20 YO in A+ and better than he did as a 21 YO at A+.
First of all, you have Escobar's ages a year too high
He was in A+ at 19 and 20 (half of the latter).
Second of all, Escobar is a premium defensive shortstop, while Beckham might have to move off the position.
It was a great selection of awesome.
I can't add.
What makes you think Beckham might have to move off? The scouting reports are fine. the concern is the errors, I guess, but those can be fixed (hopefully).
Most 19 year olds are not good at defense.
He’ll be fine.
Tools Whore
Uh, the very article we're talking about
The 2008 draft’s No. 1 selection, Beckham has shown he can hit (.283/.337/.417) and that he might move off shortstop (28 errors in 73 games).
It was a great selection of awesome.
Nowhere in the above conversation was the thought of Beckham moving off short qualified with anything other than "might"
It was a great selection of awesome.
but they wouldn't rank him at #20 if they thought he was moving to the OF
might and probable are different.
as it stands, he is the best SS prospect in the game. I don’t buy Escobar’s bat and I know a lot of others don’t either. he is a fine prospect, but he is not top 20, and beckham is until its more evident that he could be moved.
but especially knowing that its the Rays org. and they value value … then I am guessing they will keep Beckham at his most valuable position unless he proves that he absolutely can’t handle it, and I think we are nowhere near that point. the kid is 19
Indeed
I think the complaints lie more in his need to polish up his defensive game rather than a lack of raw ability to get the job done. And you’d only move him if his bat looked too good to hold him back, and it’s obviously not.
Besides, if he gets moved, where does he go? Second base doesn’t fix the problems with his defense. Probably the same deal at third base, but I wouldn’t care much for his bat there.
Center would seem the natural destination, but . . .I’m not sure how that would go. His arm plays nicely there but he’s not more than a 60 runner, making his defense heavily dependent on instincts which we really would have no clue about until he actually made that move. It’s entirely possible he’d be a corner then, making him Randy Winn (a fine, fine player but out of a No. 1 draft pick?).
I’d say you have to let this hand play out for a good while longer. But if BA’s saying it, they heard it from SOMEBODY.
I really cant see him moving off SS
He’s got the tools to be good there and he’s super young.
BA being BA.
Re:
No power: AE .124isop………………… TB .134isop
No walks: AE 6.8% walk rate……….. TB 7.6% walk rate
Too many K’s: AE 16.3% K Rate….. TB 24.6% K rate
They appear to be very similar players offensively. And, no, I don’t want to get into comparing AE’s A Ball stats to TB’s A Ball stats. That seems like a pretty useless excercise to me.
The difference between the two right now is SB (Escobar has 29, Beckham has 4) and defense. That plus the fact that ther are scouts that believed that Escobar might be the best defensive SS in the NL right now – make up for a solid difference between the two. That said, I haven’t yet heard a report about how TB has been this year. And there’s still plenty of time for TB to turn into a star.
What's the difference between Brignac and Escobar's defense?
He hits for more power, Ks, about the same, and draws as few walks. So is his defense THAT much better?
there's no way.
Briggy’s so under-rated right now I giggle about it all the time.
SNTS at its finest.
and ok, Briggy had a couple mediocre seasons… so what, these guys are prospects. same with Homer Bailey. Homer is going to be an ace
Heyward is a great defensive outfielder as well as a great hitter
by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 9, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
Receiving votes...
Matt Moore received consideration from at least 1 BA writer, which I think is pretty sweet.
His numbers since the start of June are absolutely filthy. 41.1 IP, 24 hits, 1.31 ERA, 11 BB, 57K’s.
I know this is going out on a bit of a limb, but if he sustains this through the rest of the season, I think he becomes one of the 5 best pitching prospects in the game.
Too early
We’re going to need to see him in at least high A before dubbing him that kind of a prospect.
I...
don’t agree. Strasburg’s the #1 prospect and he’s never pitched a professional inning. Bumgarner was anointed last year befoer he reached high-A. Low-A stats aren’t enough, but low-A stats combined with scouting reports get you most of the way there. Moore has top flight stuff, throws with his left hand, and is mowing down his competition. His only flaw – high walk rates – has disappeared in the last month and a half. If he sustains this over the rest of the year, there’s no reason not to consider him elite. BA’s already putting him in the discussion of their top 15-20 arms, and that’s with the absolutely awful walk rates of April-May still dominating his stat line. That falls away a bit, and he’s a truly elite arm.
Giants
Married to a Giants fan, I’m glad to see Bumgarner and Posey right at the top of the list. It will be fun once Villalona gets there too.
I wonder how much they considered calling up Bumgarner or Alderson when Randy Johnson went down.
Wonder if any of the names on this list have a Canadian address after July 31….
I wonder what their reasoning for Bumgarner ahead of Matusz is? Did they address that in their reports or chat?
Maybe I can help
Matusz is a terrific pitcher but Madison has done this as a pro beore he has turned 20…
24 Wins 5 Losses
1.52 ERA
219 IP
40 BB
230 Ks
4 Homers
Matusz even as awesome as he has been has already given up 5 homers and walked 27 in 93 Innings.
Madison has better control and keeps the ball in the park better all while doing this at the age
when Matusz was finishing up his freshman season at SDU. He is 2 and a half years younger !!
Maybe Matusz would be this good in AA 2 and a half years ago but I doubt it. lso nothing wrong with Matusz as a prospect but as far as prospects go Madison is a freaking pitching PRODIGY
I'm sticking to my guns
Bumgarner is one of the most overrated prospects in baseball.
While he does have command of an above-average, fastball — he can touch the mid-90s, works in the low-90s — that will allow him to mow down even some upper minors lineups, his secondary offerings are nothing special.
His slider could be an average or better pitch, but he has made very little progress with it over the last three years.
That said, he’s certainly an elite prospect and a likely big league arm. But if you’re expecting a guy who’s going to be an above-average MLB starter, you might want to temper your expectations.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
by Adam Foster on Jul 10, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you Adam
He’s a slightly more shiny version of Mike Pelfrey IMO. I think you have him in the correct range on your list.
actually
His slider is currently above average..and project prospect..well, you dont have to read much around here to know what most people think of their rankings…
Read enough around here
and after awhile you don’t really care what most people think that post here, particularly when they are taking potshots at the published work of others online – so take that last shot at you with a molecule of salt Adam.
I also disagree that his slider is above average. I’ve seen him. It aint all that.
im sorry
I didnt realize they were able to publish whatever they want on the internet for everyone to see but not get critized for anything. my mistake.
Oh stop it
More often times than not, it’s merely dog piling on these guys that usually dominate these “critiques” of these lists in the threads on this site.
i dont care
if other people dog pile it or not…the notion that someone puts something on the internet therefore we shouldn’t criticize is amazingly laughable.
they have a way they do their rankings and thats fine, its not like i called him a moron or idiot or something or attacked him personally.
You can criticize
And I certainly disagreed with a lot of their rankings, but it’s kind of rude to tell somebody that their work is worthless
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 10, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
i didnt say it was worthless...
i essentially said not alot of people agreed with them on this site.
...
What makes you believe Bumgarner’s slider is currently above average?
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
re
1) multiple reports have stated it is above average while flashing plus
2) in your own video you can see juan pierre wets himself while looks at one for strike 3
http://www.prospecttube.com/video/madison-bumgarner-vs-dodgers
3) like i said before, common sense tells you that 20 year olds dont dominate the way he has with an above average FB and an average slider. he isnt out there tossing it down the pipe and just getting lucky.
Do you have any links to these reports or can you name your source?
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
by Adam Foster on Jul 11, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Felt relavent...
K Law’s comments about MadBum leading into the Futures Game…
• Madison Bumgarner, LHP: Bumgarner throws an easy mid-90s fastball with a slider that has come a long way since his senior year of high school, when he started throwing it and it was at best an average pitch. He won’t turn 20 until a month after Sunday’s game, but has a sub-2.00 ERA in stops this year in the Cal League and the Eastern League. For a guy who throws from a low slot, he doesn’t get the ground balls you’d expect.
So, if his slider had come a long way, and it was, at best, average in HS, seems reasonable to assume his slider is average or better at this point then.
Poster formerly known as artie
Meh....
That can be interpreted in a few different ways. I kind of read it that it has still come a long way, but at this time is still an average pitch. Maybe, maybe not, but there is more than one way of reading that.
The couple of times I saw him… he snapped off some pretty good sliders – really good ones in fact, but most of them were kinda flat and/or not very crisp. If he threw a good one, he would usually throw another slider in the next pitch or two – if it wasn’t a very good one, he would just rely on the heater for the most part the rest of the AB. I’m definitely a Bumgarner fan and the good sliders he threw gave me a lot of hope that he can one day rely heavily on that pitch, but he has to get a lot more consistency with that pitch before we’ll see him use it effectively against big league bats.
Thanks!
That report is definitely interesting, and is what I would expect him to do this year, and maybe next year.
The way I interpreted it is almost the way you did, that it is better than it was, he’s making developmental progress. It didn’t speak to the current quality or consistency, just that it’s better than it was when he was in HS. So he’s making progress.
And my ranking process balances ceiling vs risk, and MadBum doing as well as he is with improving secondary stuff in AA as a power lefty makes him a guy that could fall within the top 7-12 to me.
Poster formerly known as artie
i will look
the reason i say that is i was not a believer at all in him last year when he dominated the SALLY league because his slider was reportedly not very good in high school, so it stood to reason that he dominating with his fastball (which was my opinion).
seemed like all of the chats/top prospects lists had his slider as vastly improved and i am sure i saw someone put a 55 on it (maybe saber scouting?).
i will be first to admit i am not presenting very good evidence, but i have seen alot of video and we can all see for ourselves in about 2 hours
Well, here's the thing, though
In all of your reports on him, you cite a game that you saw him in where his secondary pitches weren’t there. I’m all for integrating scouting with sabermetrics, but to base an evaluation of his pitches on a single game is kind of silly. Small sample sizing applies to scouting just as much as stats.
And, frankly, you can look at Bumgarner’s stats and believe one of two things. First, you can believe that Bumgarner’s fastball is “merely” above average. In which case, no way does a guy with just an above average fastball and no average secondary pitches compile the dominant stats he has. Even if you believe that a good fastball can dominate single-A, Bumgarner’s stats last year were more than dominant, and guys with fastballs just as good as his have struggled to put up even 80% of his statlines. On the other hand, you could believe that Bumgarner’s fastball is one of the best of all-time, in which case he probably doesn’t need stellar secondary pitches, anyway.
My opinion of Bumgarner is this: He has a great fastball (probably plus-plus), and an average slider (that could be plus when all is said and done), but his ability to pinpoint those pitches is what makes him great.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 10, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
agreed
people dont go around dominating at the age of 20 with only an above average fastball and a “nothing special” slider
Matt Anderson
says “hello”.
His slider isn’t anything special, it just isn’t. That’s not to say its bad, or that it won’t be really good later, but it’s average right now.
Matt Anderson had 41 terrific IP at age 21 in A+ and AA
Contrast that with Bumgarner, who’s done it for upwards of 200 IP over 2 years at 18 and 19.
Of course Bumgarner needs work on his secondary pitches – but it’s nonsense to argue that his stuff isn’t in some way exceptional – either his fastball is just that good, or it’s good enough to allow a decent slider to look fantastic
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 10, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Basically the same
You’re leaving out the 44 IP that Anderson threw in the majors that year at age 21. I think Bumgarner will hit the bigs around the same age as Matt Anderson did – I’m sure Matt Anderson would have tore up the lower minors as Bumgarner did had he played there when he was 18/19/20, basically in much the same way – with a nasty fastball and mediocre/average secondary stuff.
I never said his stuff wasn’t in some way exceptional. The gist of my point was that pitchers that rely on fastball that much many times don’t have near the success in the majors they enjoyed in the minors.
Not that I disagree...
but do you have examples of what you’re arguing? I suspect most pitchers that have sustained dominance in the minors and who possess a plus fastball find success in the majors more often than not.
I don’t consider Anderson or Pelfrey valid examples of your point. They never had sustained dominance, I think they were both rushed, but they’ve never had extended, sustained success to the degree that MadBum has.
I know his secondary stuff is what he had to work on and while his K rate has dropped, he remains a statistical success. It may mean when he can’t use his fastball all the time, it’s good enough to control a AA game. It may mean his secondary stuff is good enough to get outs, not dominate. It may mean he’s just getting lucky.
I still see MadBum in the top 10, maybe top 15, at worst. I just can’t think of 10 guys I’d want ahead of him much less 15.
In terms of hitters, I would take Heyward, and Stanton over MadBum, for sure. Probably Smoak and Montero. Posey is a tough one, I want to see him promoted! Santana is another tough one, his stats are good, not great.
In terms of pitchers, I could see an argument for Tillman or Matusz, I think they are all in the same tier, but beyond that, I’m just not seeing it.
Part of the issue with PP’s list is that they list 3 guys who I think they shouldn’t (Weiters, Holland, and Hanson). So pull him up 3 slots, then I just can’t see ranking MadBum below:
Welgarz (rly?)
Carrasco (might be turning the corner, not convinced)
Parker (MadBum is younger, walking less, striking out the same, and a lefty)
D Brown (A slumping A ball OF, nice prospect, but not good enough)
LaPorta (a 24.5 AAA 1b?)
F Mart (the closest of the bunch, but still feel MadBum has a better chance to be special)
Anyway, I don’t expect you to agree, but just speaking my side of things.
Poster formerly known as artie
Parker vs. Bumgarner
I saw Parker and Bumgarner face the same team in the same league within a few weeks of each other.
I’m very confident that Parker will surface as the better big league pitcher of the two. His changeup and breaking ball were miles ahead of Bumgarner’s. But Bumgarner did have an advantage in fastball command.
They are within a year of each other in age.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
LaPorta
The average age in Triple-A at the start of the 2009 season was 27.4. At 24.3, LaPorta was nearly a full deviation below the league average in age on opening day.
Weglarz has shown signs of breaking out as a power hitter this season. He’s a 21-year-old in Double-A who has an elite walk rate, average strikeout rate, and strong power numbers.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
Just to say, I enjoy PP...
and check it a few times a week, I really enjoy the more stat heavy analysis to balance things with BA, ESPN, and BP.
I do like your top-25 lists, but I will say I like them more for sleepers than for assisting debates between specific established prospects. Sometimes it seems that you try too hard to differentiate yourselves from the consensus by slotting guys differently, and sometimes the rationale feels a little forced, like with MadBum.
I will say the Parker v MadBum is the closest for me because the age and production. I appreciate you seeing them both pitch and all, but in the end, MadBum feels like the rarer commodity. He may be further from being ready (although you couldn’t tell as they have very similar stats). I wonder if you’re letting the game you watched affect your evaluation too much?
I’ve been tracking Weglarz since the off-season, and while I like his basic tool set, I just don’t see him in the top 20 of prospects. His stats suggest he’s got some nice tools, but really, he’s not experienced any sustained elite production. Again, MadBum has the higher ceiling, and his production to date is still more exceptional.
LaPorta is fine, but given his position and relative age (relative to other top prospects not to league), I’m just not seeing him as that elite. I mean he’s about 5 years older than MadBum, where will MadBum be assuming normal development 5 years from now? He’ll be in his 2nd or 3rd year in a major league rotation. I agree with BA’s placement.
Anyway, I appreciate your work, and am happy that more people are putting organized, thoughtful analysis out there for other prospectors. I just feel you’re being exceptionally hard on MadBum, and I’m not really seeing the reasons why, outside of you seeing him play once.
Poster formerly known as artie
Fair enough...
If that’s the one point out of my post that you choose to refute, then that’s fine. I’ll leave with the same opinion with which I started. I don’t expect you to debate endlessly about your list, it is yours after all.
Anyway, take it as constructive criticism that your list sometimes feels a bit forced just to be different. I still find it useful, and thank you for taking the time to build it!
Poster formerly known as artie
Hopefully as our methods become more practiced and unique, we’ll be able to establish a more consistent approach. I think the fact that our rankings have been so dynamic over the years makes a lot of people feel uneasy — I’d probably feel the same way.
(Here’s a podcast explaining some of our reasoning on our Top 50: http://projectprospect.com/audio/32 .)
We started our rankings by doing what I believe a lot of people here do: read as much as possible, look at some stats, and watch players when possible.
We then moved toward a using a ranking system that was largely quantitative and were tied to that system, which was pretty elementary and based on a lot of assumptions, for a couple of seasons. Lately, we’ve tried to make scouting a bigger part of our product, I’ve carefully watched over 30 college and minor league games this season. And in the meantime, we’re working on building a new ranking system that should be extremely powerful.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
I tried listening to the podcast on friday...
but it stopped on me. I figured it was a problem at work, so I’ll try again at home.
For me, it would be useful to understand your value system, how much do you weigh tools vs stats vs floor vs ceiling vs risk. And another factor that mucks up ratings around here is real world vs fantasy worth, so, really its defense vs position.
Anyway, I can weigh BA’s top 20, top 10, and top 100 differently because I better understand their methodology for each.
Because, scouting does factor into BA’s ratings, and to a certain degree the MiLB and ESPN lists. Not sure how much it goes into the BP list.
ANyway, good luck! I’ve been refining my own rating system for about 15 years now! All the websites and forums have made it easier to get more precise data points to use to rate guys.
And again, while we may disagree on some specifics, it’s uncommon for a smaller site to keep going, so keep it up!
Poster formerly known as artie
Thanks
We all have fun exploring prospects and the site is doing fine with cost recovery, so Project Prospect should continue.
You can find out more about our quantitative approach through some of the studies that we’re currently conducting: http://projectprospect.com/article/archive/barrel-awareness
We’re currently having a detailed discussion about quantitative ranking approaches in our forums (linked in the series of articles above). I’d love to hear about your system more.
From conversations with Kevin Goldstein, I can tell you that when he started working for BP, he was about 99.9% scouting. I was really bummed when BP abandoned its quantitative prospect system in favor of hiring someone to replicate the Baseball America approach…that’s one of the main reasons I started Project Prospect.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
Interesting
So, if I may ask, if you want to be what BP was in terms of quantitative, then are you worried that you’ll be making the same shift with your concerns about the pitch quality of Parker and Bumgarner? Statistically speaking, Bumgarner and Parker seem virtually equivalent – their FIP is within one tenth of a point, and their K/PA is within a percentage point. The biggest statistical difference is that Bumgarner is a year younger. Now, I don’t think that particularly means much, and I’m willing to buy the argument that Parker might become substantially better for precisely the reasons you mention, but I can’t help but notice that they’re scouting-based reasons, and not statistical. In terms of statistical ways to judge prospects, what do you like best?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 11, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Stats can only go so far. It’s always best to see a player to verify what the numbers are telling you.
I’ve surveyed most MLB scouting departments about how they utilize statistics, and most of the responses I got were similar. As starting point. I have a feeling that most pro teams rely on stats the most to identify college sophomores who will be worth watching as juniors.
Our goal is to be in tune with the most advanced statistical methods that are being practiced and be at least proficient in scouting.
I’m a fan of seeing how players deviate from their peers right now. I programmed some macros that allow me to do just that for every minor leaguer in baseball in less than 20 minutes.
But our prize jewel will someday be a database of historic minor league and college performances that we can compare current minor leaguers to. I’m aware that similar efforts have previously been made. If I had access to that data, I would start there :).
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
by Adam Foster on Jul 11, 2009 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
League average age isn't a good measurement
If you’re trying to prove that LaPorta is much better than the average AAA hitter, well, no shit. The question is he better than the other hitting prospects in AAA
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 11, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Where do you get this info?
Where are you coming up with the info that MadBum is only just throwing fastballs? Have you even seen him pitch more than once this year? I’ve heard that he has been thowing many more changeups and breaking balls this year (especially in AA) and that’s the main reason his walks are up and his Ks are down.
For those that say he only has a “good” fastball, I’d like to remind you that he pitched 6 innings in ST this year at the Major League level and didn’t give up a single run against MLB starters and reserves. Oh, and he struck out Manny Ramirez with just 2 “good enough” fastballs and 1 “mediocre” slider (although it looked pretty nasty to me and to Manny).
This 19 year old kid is mature beyond his years, doesn’t get rattled, and has given up only 5 HRs, 41 BBs, 175 hits, and 38 earned runs in his first 223 innings of pro ball – while striking out 232 and allowing a BAA of less than .217. If he only had a plus fastball and mediocre/average secondary pitches wouldn’t high A and AA hitters be tagging him this year as they see him for the 2nd and 3rd time? I’m not saying he’s the next coming of Randy Johnson, but to call him “one of the most overrated prospects in baseball” is silly. You can opine all you want about his stuff not being good enough, but as long as his numbers hold up and he keeps winning games, then your opinion doesn’t hold much water. You can talk about mechanics, velocity, control, and his repertoire of pitches all you want, but what counts is actual results on the field. No other minor league pitcher can match the results that MadBum has put up this year and last (while being one of, if not, the youngest pitchers in his leagues). Until his results fade he will remain an elite top 10 prospect.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
For those that say he only has a "good" fastball, I’d like to remind you that he pitched 6 innings in ST this year at the Major League level and didn’t give up a single run against MLB starters and reserves.
Wow.
If he only had a plus fastball and mediocre/average secondary pitches wouldn’t high A and AA hitters be tagging him this year as they see him for the 2nd and 3rd time?
Not necessarily…?
I dont disagree with your conclusion… but these statements…
In those 44 IP
He had a K:BB of 44:31. I’m really not sure what you’re arguing – if you’re saying that this was dramatic success in the major leagues despite him relying on an outstanding fastball, then doesn’t that mean Bumgarner can do the same? If you say (like I do) that he didn’t have success in the majors, then what point are you making?
I think our essential disagreement is not over whether it’s possible to succeed in the majors with only an outstanding fastball, but whether the fact that Bumgarner now has less than excellent secondary stuff means he will always have less than excellent secondary stuff. We can find a whole slew of pitchers with great fastballs but no major league success, but Bumgarner is still only 19 years old. That he has an outstanding fastball doesn’t mean that he will never have adequate secondary stuff – all it means is that if he gets them, then he will be even stronger because he also has that outstanding fastball
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 11, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
If you stick with your good pitch and don't experiment
Then you can dominate at the age of 20 with an above average fastball.
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
Absolutely
In fact, lets just leave it at “one plus pitch.” Often guys with a great heater or a monster frisbee slider or a big 12-6 hook can dominate A+ and below and AA the first time around (eventually they catch up most of the time).
Having never seen Bumgarner
myself, I was wondering if you could delve into a little more detail on what you see in his secondary pitches. This seems to be a point on contention as some have them better than others.
I'm confused
How do you define an elite pitching prospect except somebody who’s going to be an above average MLB starter? Did you mean that if you’re expecting an ace you should temper your expectations?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 10, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
3 years?
MadBum didn’t start throwing breaking pitches until last year – 2008 – at Augusta. I don’t see how 1.5 seasons comes out to 3 years, but maybe you’ve got some fancy new math.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
he went 10th overall without throwing a single secondary pitch?
even colt griffin threw two other pitches
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 11, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The story that was printed before he was drafted is that his dad din’t want him to throw any breaking balls for fear of screwing up his arm. He only threw fastballs and a seldom change in HS.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I didn't realize that...
But it makes MadBum’s ceiling all the more incredible to me given that Clay was 3 years older than MadBum when he started AA, and he spent a year in college. So MadBum is well behind Clay in terms of development time relative to level of competition, and still posting imporessive stats. not Clay level impressive, but good nonetheless. I wonder how Clay would’ve held up in AA rather than pitching for Angelina College?
Poster formerly known as artie
Bumgarner´s stats:
While stats can be deceiving, how many not even 20-year-olds with a 90-95 fastball have put up numbers like these between Low A and Double A in recent (or more ancient) history ?
24-5, 1.54 ERA, 222 IP, 175 H, 38 ER, 5 HR, 41 BB, 232 K´s
That´s quite awesome right there and – at least so far – fact is hitters at no level have managed to hit Bumgarner hard for any sort of extended period of time.
If you're going to call on his stats
You have to note that Bumgarner’s strikeout rate has gone down at every level:
29.4% in Low-A (524 TBF)
23.0% in High-A (100 TBF)
21.2% in Double-A (203 TBF)
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
Numbers
The HR & Hits against haven´t gone up at all though while his K-ratio has moderately decreased. He still keeps the ball in the park (2 HR allowed in 81.1 IP in 09) and keeps batters to a BA against in the .217 range (.216 at Low A in 2008). Actually, it´s kind of scary that the BA against over a pretty large 222 IP sample size at three minor league levels remains almost identical.
And, again, Bumgarner hasn´t even turned 20. He could spend all of 2010 and 2011 at Double A, working on his secondary offerings and still be pretty young for that level.
If you have a fastball that you can command within the strikezone and throw it with plus velocity and movement for a LHP, that goes a very long way towards being a very succesful major league pitcher.
Injuries aside – and Bumgarner is still very much at an endangered age – the quesion is whether he´ll be able to improve his secondary pitches to a consistently above average level. But even if he makes no more strides at all, his profile at least would read like an improved and LH version of Mike Pelfrey. If he does – and considering his age and success up until now I like his chances – the ceiling is unlimited. And combining stuff, projection, makeup, overall physical ceiling & stats, he deserves his ranking of top P prospect in Baseball right now. Even though there are certainly several others like Parker, Matusz, Latos or Drabek who also belong in this conversation in terms of stuff & results.
HR and hits against are worthless measures
Not even worth the time you spend looking them up.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Just a couple of thoughts...
First, I know it’s been kicked around that it is common for players to dominate like MadBum had, but that’s simply not true. It’s pretty uncommon, especially given the fact his first 3 starts were sub-par to start last year. His year, stat-wise, was exceptional and rare. And so when people say that lots of pitchers dominate with a plus fastball like MadBum in the lower minors and stall out, I’m skeptical. Pitchers blow out arms and whatnot, but barring injuries, I’d like to know what pitchers people are thinking about who have sustained dominance with plus velocity in the minors and whose development stalls out.
Second, in my experience, a pitcher’s development curve is not smooth (especially early in their development, so teenagers) since they are often asked to shelve their best offerings to refine their secondary offerings. So I’m a less concerned about MadBum’s drop in Ks as I strongly suspect they are having him concentrate on his secondary pitches, but what’s impressive to me is that he continues to maintain good control and a 1 WHIP.
I expect hitters to exhibit smooth positive trends because teams handle their development differently. For instance, Votto was hammered because of his 2005 season which showed a disturbing downward trend. Later it was rumored that the Reds asked him to take the first pitch in each AB, and his stats tanked. The community at large hammered Votto’s ranking as a result until we found out about the Red mandate, which was later dropped, and Votto’s performance returned to what was expected. The point? Votto was still a very good, improving hitter and his stats suffered because of development mandate.
So if MadBum were significantly struggling, I could better understand tanking his rating, but from a stats standpoint, he’s not, not yet anyway.
So when I see people enthusiastically tanking his rating, I have to take it with a grain of salt, like someone’s sleeper lists, it feels like people eager to stay ahead of the consensus and a fair chunk of the time, people jump the gun to buck a trend.
Poster formerly known as artie
It will be fun once Villalona gets there too.
Don’t hold your breath. Surely even BA has to take into consideration how utterly awful at baseball he’s been since putting on a professional uniform.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
silliness
Awful? He hasn’t been stellar, but he’s been nowhere close to awful and you damn well know it.
i dont think
its too much silliness. he is a .268/.316/.424 career hitter in the minors with a 42/235 BB/K ratio, and half of those PA’s have been in hitter friendly leagues
At first base, to boot
He’s garbage.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Boy, there's a great comparison...
I’ll assume you mean “likely to produce barely 1 WAR a season through his first five years in the bigs” and answer “Yes.”
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
These comments are reckless
an 18 year old holding his own in hi A is garbage…
paul, i dont follow Minor league ball to often, but every time i see you post, you just bash everything, Your posts are just written with venom, as if you have some agenda.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
I do have an agenda (as does everyone who posts)
It’s to shake people out of groupthink on certain prospects. (If I agree with the groupthink, there’s not a whole lot of point in posting!) Around here, it’s mostly negative because the prospects people talk about are mostly the perceived top of the heap.
If you want threads where I’m talking up fringe prospects with hidden strengths, go read the later community prospect threads at Athletics Nation last offseason. If there were more of those sort of threads here, I’d comment in that vein more often.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I agree
that especially on this site, group think can be prevelent, but i tend to see your posts as more intentionally contrarian.
The fact is that you can’t look at teenagers stats and get much from them, especially when they are not good…. i think too many talented prospects get forgotten about because their numbers don’t match the scouting at lower levels, … see J. Upton, Han Ram, Miguel Cabrera, etc. etc. Stats arent meaningless, but when your talking about such young players there is an awful lot of things taht can and will change over the years.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
Justin Upton was kind of a stud in the minors given his age
Cabrera I’ve already talked about below. I’ll give you Hanley, although I’d point out that his hitting stats were way better than Villalona’s despite playing shortstop. (I still wouldn’t have predicted superstardom from them, but “pretty solid contributor” wouldn’t have been any kind of stretch.)
The real point I’m trying to make here, which I think is being lost in the statistical mumbo-jumbo, is that his scouting reports and tools do not match the hype either. He’s not good at any aspect of defense, or at making contact with pitches. His plate discipline might be the worst in the organized minors, even given the existence of Gregory Halman. Even his power potential seems to have been oversold, although the ARL effect might be swamping that. And he’s a slow runner. Five tools, seven skills, whatever— he ain’t got most of ’em.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
The kid’s still just 18, and holding his own in high A. BTW, the Cal league is hitter-friendly, but his home park (SJ) is a pitcher’s park. I’m not saying he’s a sure thing, or that he belongs in the top 25, but he’s an exciting prospect for his age and experience.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
This
holding his own in high A
is, I’m sorry, just a blatant lie. He’s got a .312 wOBA on top of being fat and slow and playing first base. The only thing he’s holding his own at is the postgame spread.
His performance sucks. His peripherals suck. His tools suck, except for power. Where exactly am I supposed to locate this mythical potential of his?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ive been a pretty vocal critic of Villalona...
but there is some reason to believe he’ll be a good hitter. Its just pretty much all in the scouting department. Giants fans on this site often site his numbers and ARL… just not persuasive, as youve pointed out. Combined with his scouting I see some reason for hope, not much “excitement,” though. He has pure 80 power and drives the ball even when he doesnt make solid contact. He also has phenomenal hand/eye coordination. Those things alone don’t make up for his flaws to date, IMHO, but I understand how others believe in him to some degree. I just dont see an elite prospect here… yet. Im not sure what I see completely… other than someone getting too much hype compared to performance. There’s a really wide range of outcomes for what this guy becomes… and far too many are ready to say “middle of the order hitter.” Which is what he’s going to need to be to have good value…
Performance
As of July 7th, Villalona was 1.55 deviations below the California League average in walk percentage, 0.84 deviations below in strikeout rate, and 0.15 deviations below in power.
Simply combining those deviations for each player isn’t the best way to evaluate potential — weights needed — but if you were to, Villalona would rank as the third-worst hitter in the California League…worse than Engle Beltre, Preston Mattingly, and Brian Bocock. Or at least you can say he’s in that kind of company.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
have any of you compared him to previous international free agents?
Maybe you should re-take a look at miguel cabrera’s minor league numbers through his age 19 season…. i bet he was a worthless piece of garbage also, right paul?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=cabrer003jos
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
No, based on his minor league numbers I would say Miguel Cabrera was a vastly superior prospect to Villalona
Far lower K rate, far higher walk rate, better (albeit still minus) defense, and huge doubles numbers in said age 19 season.
[What, you thought I was just looking at OPS or something?]
They’re really not even comparable statlines. Cabrera’s statline coupled with ARL considerations and scouting reports telling us that he had huge untapped power potential would make him a top 50 prospect. (Exactly where I’d have ranked him depends on who else was out there at the time.)
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
umm
pretty sure their numbers are very comparable, in fact Villalona is a year younger at each level then Cabrera was. So yes, Cabrera showed better on base skills where Villalona shows more power.
If you look at underlying skills for 17,18 year old kids your gonna get burned…. save it for the older prospects. and major leaguers.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
AnVil’s age 19 season will be next year (he’ll have < 1 month at age 19 this season). The reason that I’m still optimistic about him, besides his young age, is that he has shown signs of learning and adjusting. Last year (at Augusta in the Sally League) he was lousy in the first half, but then ended up flipping the switch and being well above average in the 2nd half.
Also, AnVil isn’t only a power hitter as some have maintained. He does play good D at first (he’s excellent at picking bad throws out of the dirt), but he has problems maintaining his concentration and keeping his head in the game. He’s also far from being fat (he is a bit overweight), he has an above-averge arm (not really relevant for a 1B), and he has average speed when he’s motivated.
For those that claim that he’s one of the worst hitters in the Cal League, I wonder how you explain his excellent numbers for April and May? Yes, he was very bad in June, but he was just beginning to come around when he got injured. I believe that he would have made the necessary adjustments and bounced back to improve greatly in the 2nd half like he did last year. Of course, we’ll never know now that he’s done for the rest of this season.
I agree that he’s not an elite prospect now, and he’s been over-hyped in the past, but I’d still put him in the top 100. He’s still got a long way to go, but his year 21 season won’t come around for 2.5 years, so he has plenty of time to be the Giant’s Pablo Sandoval of 2011.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Arguments based on month-to-month splits are bunkum
Odds are extremely good that the only thing varying is his luck.
The absolute ceiling on the sustainable defensive value of a first baseman is about -2.5 runs, or 10 runs above average. First basemen don’t get enough chances to be better than that. 10 RAA is basically Albert Pujols level defense, so I think we can rule that out as any kind of reasonable projection. He’s a significant defensive minus any which way.
W/r/t Pablo Sandoval, while Sandoval clearly flipped some kind of switch going into last season, his K rates were always way better than Villalona’s (and while he’s nobody’s idea of a patient hitter, his walk rate was somewhat better as well).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
dude... he's 18
and was doing very well before he hit a huge slump. Worrying about his K rate and BB rate is justified, but your over the top hate for him is comical.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
You can't refute my arguments, so you resort to ridicule?
Nice.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
you don't like month-to-month splits because it supports your argument
he was doing awesome at the beginning of the year and then fell off of a cliff. Yes, the beginning of the year is a small sample size, but the point is that he can hold his own against much older competition. The type of growing pains he went through are to be expected with a kid his age.
It’s the hyperbole that makes you sound like a spaz. You talk about “how utterly awful at baseball he’s been since putting on a professional uniform,” but in doing so completely discount periods where he has played very well. I mean, you’re really troll-like in your tactics.
But whatever. We’ll see how he turns out. I just wouldn’t want you as a GM.
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
No, I don't like month-to-month splits
because a month is not even remotely close to enough time to evaluate a player’s hitting ability. I don’t give a shit about his night/day splits, either. They’re meaningless trivia.
I will call anyone out on using arguments like that, regardless of what side of an issue they are on. Although given that they’re typically deployed as the last resort of the desperate, I wouldn’t expect to be on that side of an argument very often…
Ironically, about the only thing you can tell from a month’s sample size is… how good a player’s plate discipline is. It will no doubt come as a stunning shock to everyone to learn that Villalona’s PD has been godawful every month of this year.
I could start digging into the insult bin to reply to the… let’s count… four unprovoked personal attacks in the above posts, but you’re really not worth my time. Later.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
PaulThomas, you’re the one that started the over-the-top silly comments. Then you whine and complain when other posters respond to you in kind. A revie of the record clearly will show that in your previous posts you attacked my initial description of Villalona holding his own in high A ball as “garbage”. In a later post you described Villalona as “fat and slow” and stated that, “The only thing he’s holding his own at is the postgame spread.” These didn’t qualify as quantitative analytical comments, light-hearted joking, or as comments that constructively move a discussion forward. What they do achieve is a certain low-brow shock value, in an obvious attempt by you to provoke a negative response – which seems to be your standard MO (as 2 other posters besides myself have commented on above).
For the record, these are my facts as I know them:
1. Villalona is not fat. Have you seen him in the past year? He could easily lose 10 pounds, but it’s not like it’s stored as a chubby layer of fat around his belly. I’ve seen him standing side-by-side with Pablo Sandoval in a picture taken this past April, and AnVil has a noticably better and slimmer physique than Pablo. If you think AnVil is fat, then you must think Sandoval is a real tub of lard? If you think AnVil is fat, then you must view Prince Fielder and David Ortiz as morbidly obese. Speaking of those 3 guys, I seem to remember they’ve had pretty awesome careers so far in the Majors. I guess from your POV this is just a month-to-month anomaly – impossilbe to sustain because of their extreme fatitude?
2. AnVil is not below-average at D. He is quite nimble and agile around the bag and can really stretch out for a ball on a close play at first. He has a plus arm that he used as a 3rd basemen up until the Giants switched him to 1B at the beginning of last year. Admittedly the arm doesn’t do much to enhance his D at 1B now. His D problems are mostly due to his lack of focus. At his age he still takes too many plays off in a given game. Hopefully that will change as he matures and gets good coaching.
3. Anvil isn’t a slow runner, although he does have a tendency to not hustle down the line when he thinks he’ll be thrown out. I’ve seen him run when he’s motivated. He has slightly below-average speed when he hustles. Without a doubt he can run rings around guys like David Ortiz and Bengie Molina. Their extreme lack of speed hasn’t seemed to hold them back the last time I checked.
4. In a post above I wrote that AnVil “had excellent numbers for April and May…but he was very bad in June.” You instantly jumped on that by writing “month-to-month splits are bunkum.” There you cleverly created a straw man argument. His excellent numbers in April and May consisted of 7 weeks of games. Since when is 7 weeks equal to 1 month? He did have a bad June, but has been much-improved so far in July. So for the current season he had an excellent 7 weeks, then slumped badly for about 4.5 weeks, and has now bounced back to above-average over the past 2 weeks. From that you somehow get that I’m comparing month-to-month splits. Even if I give you that argument as have some semblance of cogency, what you neglect to realize is that he had an awesome last 6 weeks of the 2008 season in Augusta. Therefore, when you add that to how he began the season this year, you’ll realize that he strung together 12 weeks of well above-average stats. That totally blows your month-to-month straw man argument out of the water.
I enjoy exchanging opinions and ideas with like-minded sports fans on sites like this. In the end though, it’s all a bunch of hooey. We do our best to advance our own points of view on a given player or players, and every once in a while you can gain some new insight from a fellow poster. But nobody really knows how these youngsters are going to turn out, whether they judge them by gut feel or quantitative stats or some combination of these or other methods, it’s all guesswork. Even the pro scouts and evaluators are wrong about 80% of the time. That’s why the MLB draft is such a crap-shoot in comparison to the NFL and the NBA. So for you to huff-and-puff and pontificate like you’re some mystic guru of prospects is quite hilarious in my view. I don’t enjoy interacting with people like you and I won’t be baited into a prolonged argument with you, so this will be my final thoughts that I’ll share with you on this, or any subject.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
1) Pablo Sandoval IS a big tub of lard. Saying Villalona isnt fat compared to Sandoval is like saying “Oh, sure this Dictator killed a few people, but its not like he’s Hitler…”
2) “His D problems are mostly due to his lack of focus.” – This is not a potential positive. This is just a negative. His lack of conditioning is also a serious issue w/regards to his defense. He showed up to Spring out of shape again.
3) Again – Lack of focus/motivation is nothing but a negative. You should not be assuming he will grow out of these things. Comparing him to the worst runners in baseball isn’t flattering, either. No one is claiming he is the slowest guy in the game. The fact he doesnt look like one of the slowest runners in the game is also not a positive. For every negative you seem to take it and say “Sure, X is a problem, but he’s not as bad at it as the worst guys in the league are.”
4) Im not as down on Villalona as some – though I dont like him that much. I dont understand why so many people on this site see the absolute best in every area of his potential when all I see are question marks without answers yet – creating, overall, a very high risk prospect with a very high ceiling. I think the Villalona fans are only seeing the best in his month to month splits – I havent heard a good argument at all for why I should ignore the bad months and the fact his approach remains unchanged month to month. Why are only the good months determinative? Seems like confirmation bias to me.
Like Alskor
I agree – I do like him, but he isn’t the stud prospect that many here hold him to be. The sky is the limit for him, but the chances of him realizing that potential have taken a bit of a hit the last 2 seasons.
That said – you’re right about PT – Athletics Nation blog caught on and the banned him for a while.
For an incident that wasn't baseball related
and many people are still angry with the management about.
In play, run(s)! Talk dirty to me gamecast, talk dirty. - Nevermoor on FK
by designatedforassignment on Jul 16, 2009 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions
You are correct that my sarcastic comments
vis a vis Villalona’s weight are not serious analysis. Perhaps I should do a better job of separating snark from substance, but that’s neither here nor there.
Alskor already addressed the direct points you’ve raised, so I’ll just make a general comment— cherrypicking is a really sleazy form of intellectual dishonesty. It really doesn’t matter whether you’re cherrypicking a month, half a year or even a full year— it is virtually never the case that part of a player’s track record tells you more than his entire track record.
It’s often the case that picking out “successful periods” hides chronic or nagging injuries or tendencies which will end up sapping a player’s actual performance. It’s also often the case that you’re just picking out a period when he got lucky.
If you roll one die, the average roll is 3.5. If you roll a die twice and pick the best roll, the average is almost 4.5.
Cherrypicking is a great way to make a player look artificially good, which is why people use it so often. Cherrypick enough and you can say almost anything about anyone. In terms of actual validity, those claims are the equivalent of junk science.
The fact that prospects are highly variable does not give you license to start deploying any old argument on behalf of your favorite dudes. If anything, the fact that 80% of this is all luck anyway means that people need to be that much more precise when talking about the other 20%— otherwise we’re basically wasting our time.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
that's actually really not true
Second-half splits are often incredibly valuable in predicting breakouts. Players also lose time due to nagging ailments that don’t knock them out but sap their production. Adam Jones in 2007 is a perfect example. He hit somewhere in the neighborhood of ~.270/.330/.390 in April, and a lot of people jumped on the “See?! he was overrated!” bandwagon. What people who don’t actually watch the Tacoma Rainiers didn’t see/know was that he injured his wrist in the first game of the season. During May and beyond, he took off, and was a much better hitter than his entire season line indicated because of his one poor month of production.
There's no way to prove it one way or the other without a major statistical survey
but I have not found second-half splits to be even remotely useful in predicting breakouts.
If you actually know that a player was injured and not 100% during a particular period, AND that he is NOT injured now, you might give stats compiled during that period a slightly diminished weight, but I don’t think that situation holds nearly as often as people think it does.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Not really complaining
But I’d have thought Fernando Martinez might have found his way into the top 25 with his strong Triple-A performance. Though it’s definitely a really small sample size, and now he’s been sitting on the bench in the majors for about a month, so I can’t really fault them.
Probably cause he is up...
like Tommy Hanson, Wieters, Price, McCutch,etc. Now the next 25 include Ben Revere???
by LCT on Jul 9, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Like the top 10
Not so hot with 10-20, like 20-25
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
I'll be trying to post lines and analysis as much as possible.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Only 7 pitchers
Pitchers seem to be moving much faster through organizations these days, if labeled a top level prospect.
In a few cases
The A’s in particular have been very aggressive with their young pitchers. Cahill and Anderson at least would’ve been in the top 10 if they weren’t in the majors already. But Hanson and Price were kept in the minors far longer than many prospect watchers thought was necessary. This is just a case of more hitters taking steps forward than pitchers.
No Weeks, Cardenas, Carter
Even in the top 50? Questionable.
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
If Lards made it, Crater should have to.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
Astros have two top 50 prospects!
Including one in the top 20.
Question:
Will Houston’s farm system be named the worst in baseball again following this season? If not, then who?
Probably Detroit
only because they graduate Porcello and probably Ryan Perry
by LCT on Jul 9, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I have 3 of the top 10 in my AL Roto league
It’s a rebuilding year for me. I have another one from the 11-25 range, too.
I have 4 of the top 9 in my AL Roto league and two more in the top 25
Smoak – picked up as a free agent last year BEFORE the MLB draft - I thought he was the hitting prospect most likely to make a major league impact quickly, which is critical in our league, where you have to decide before the beginning of a players third year whether to sign him for a long-term contract at a somewhat higher price or drop him at season’s end. I was thrilled he went to Texas with their park and hitting coach. With the Rangers in contention, I think he’ll be up in August, and if not then, September.
Montero — drafted him last ear because Ioved his combination of power potential and relatively low strikeouts (Smoak too for that matter). Forced to cut him during the off-season as our league only allows up to 15 keepers and he was a mid-2010 arrival at best. Someone nabbed him at the draft. With my chances of winning this year fading with injuries, I traded Posada, Ronny Cedeno and Mike Moustakas for Montero, the first two at prices that wouldn’t make them keepers and Moustakas because he has struggled too much to make me think he has any chance of playing next year,
Tillman and Matusz — drafted both at the league minimum this year, and am very pleased with their progress, Tillman is within weeks of a call-up and Matusz will be in the rotation by June of next year if not the start of the season. I’m surprised more teams in my league don’t take top pitching prospecs in the auction and load up instead on dubious-talent major leaguers.
Jennings – free agent pickup early this year, out-bidding a couple rivals but still getting him for just two ticks above league minimum. He’s actually cooled off a lot after a torrid start and the Gabes in TB have played better than expected. Hard to say yet how much of a chance he might get next year, but obviously love the speed, plate discipline and the potential for some power. Here’s hoping TB doesn’t sign Crawford (there is a club option).
Saunders – draft pick this year. Obvious opportunity in Seattle outfield and was clearly a better prospect than hyped teammate Greg Halman. I had him Saunders last year too but he didn’t make my keepers list. Solid start this year. Tough home ballpark for a young hitter in Seattle, so while he may get an early shot, remains to be seen if he has some growing pains.
Not in the top 25 but on my team:
Hector Rondon — drafted him this year before he became a big name; really love everything abut him except for the injury scare when the Indians foolishly put him the bullpen. Easy path to the bigs. Has profile of pitchers I love to target — guys with good control and poise who fly under the radar until they grow out and their velocity jumps. Such was also the case with Tillman and Derek Holland.
Derek Holland – drafted this year. Some struggles this year and could have used more seasoning and especially starting in the minors rather than bouncing between starting and relieving with the Rangers. Has a big upside.
Others: Tyler Flowers, Julio Borbon, Austin Jackson, Adam Moore, Hank Congers, Danny Valencia, Dayan Viciedeo, Philippe Aumont and Aroldis Chapman.
Already on my active roster: Matt Wieters, Elvis Andrus and Phil Hughes.
I have some tough choices ahead of me in the offseason as i trim my roster to 25 and then 15 (from 40). I already have as likely keepers Grienke, Soria, Lind, Choo and Kendry Morales and another five or so that are maybes,
by northernexposure on Jul 10, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Nasty team
"There's only one cure for what's wrong with all of us pitchers, and that's to take a year off. Then, after you've gone a year without throwing, quit altogether." -Jim Palmer
Amazing List
Top 9 as close as you can get to my list, and I love the placement of the three Phillies Studs. 10-20 has several questionable guys though. Ones that seem like BA favs.
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Its an excellent list...
until they deviate from your opinion?
Okay…
well
what are you going to say, it’s a great list even though I disagree entirely? I imagine anyone’s idea of a good list is how closely it matches there’s, or at least how compelling a case its makes for other guys to open your eyes, or interesting takes, different criteria, etc.
I love the list at 10, 13 and 15 because I have those guys on my fantasy team. :)
Saunders 25?
I like him too, and I think he’ll be a terrific major league regular, but the 25th best prospect? I would think his injury issues would have impacted things a bit. Top 50 sure. Top 25? Might be pushing things.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 9, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions
BA
loves Saunders.
I’m pretty much on board, though I agree this is high. Keeping his power while cutting his strikeouts this year was the final push he had to make to vault into top prospect consideration.
I’m not too worried about a pulled muscle from someone as young as he is as far as injuries go. If he’d re-injured the same shoulder we’d be talking about worries of Snelling part 2, but this was unrelated and minor.
I think he was around 25 on last year's midseason top 25, too
The thing about Saunders is that he’s been so damn consistent. To put up .800 OPS after .800 OPS, with good scouting reports (all the “athletics” and “toolsy” tags) to boot is pretty impressive. BA has always liked him, but I actually think he belongs around here.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jul 9, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree
I love Saunders… but really, what chance of being a star does he have? I dont see star level bat in him. Good bat, good approach, good all around… solid. Anyone see a star there? Looks more like an above average corner OF. Ive always believed in him and was higher on him than most… but what’s to get excited about here?
re:
Call me silly, but I’d be excited to have an OF prospect that is good to pretty good at most everything…
me too
if you define “star” as “player who gets talked about a lot by the media,” then no. but if “star” is “player who can be the best or second-best player on a good team for a number of years,” then a guy who is pretty good at everything but exceptional at nothing is a star. saunders could be … i dunno, curtis granderson? little worse glove, little better contact/higher AVG. and g-money is definitely a star in my book.
I'm planning to advocate a Saunders/Matt Holliday swap in a forthcoming posting
I respect your opinion, so I’d be curious what you thought of the deal from a Seattle standpoint.
Might not actually be a possibility since the teams are in the same division, but you can stick a fork in the A’s for this season, which might make a deal a bit more likely…
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In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I was actually starting a Seattle trade proposal on AN with that in mind
Im just trying to find some secondary pieces I like… which I haven’t found much of in Seattles system.
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by designatedforassignment on Jul 16, 2009 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like him there
Other than health, the guy is a monster. With Ichiro, Gutierrez, Saunders and Ackley Seattle will have the best outfield in the majors. Yes better than Baltimore.
disagree a lot on that last point, but we get the point overall
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 9, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Was anyone else surprised...
that Mat Latos was not in the top 25…..
I have to say, right now I like him more then Drabek, it seems like BA was putting a bit too much stock on Latos’ “makeup” issues, which I had read seemed to be behind him…
thoughts.?
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Not too mention, i see a lot of health questions
with Drabek that I do not see with Latos….
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
Latos has had plenty of health issues.
Don’t you wonder why he’s already pitched more innings this year than the other two years of his minor league career?
I would agree that Latos seems underrated right now...
I think pre-draft scouting and slotting should impact early ratings for prospects, and I think you’re seeing the carry over of that with Drabek. He had more acclaim when drafted, so would need less performance to maintain a rating than Latos would need to produce to gain in ratings.
Anyway, I think by the end of the year, you’ll see Latos in top 10-15, and Drabek in the top 20-25.
Poster formerly known as artie
Latos was one of the most highly touted arms in his draft class. He got a ton of draft-and-follow attention.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
I only have BA to go by...
but the Drabek fanfare was greater than Latos, which was my only point. Drabek was looking to be a top 10-15 pick, Latos was only 32 in BA’s top 200 draft prospects, a projected sandwich/second rounder, and eventually his bonus demands caused him to slide all the way to the 11th round.
Anyway, the op asked for thoughts as to why Drabek is so much more highly regarded than Latos at this point, and I put forward that one as one possible explanation.
Poster formerly known as artie
Gotcha.
I was working for BA when Latos was a potential 2007 Draft pick. There was a lot of buzz about him.
Founder of www.projectprospect.com
Why do you think Latos feels under radar?
Or is that just an community illusion? Drabek seems to more easily gain press and stuff, Latos doesn’t. Is there really that much difference between the two in terms of stuff or something?
Poster formerly known as artie
I would assume
That bloodlines might have something to do with it.
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