Hope for Fausto Carmona?

by Dewey Finn on Jul 5, 2009 8:53 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

Fausto Carmona has been a nightmare for the past 1.5 seasons. How could someone who looked like one of the better young arms in baseball during 2007, become so craptastic? Was 2007 a straight up fluke? I remember Torii Hunter saying that hitting his sinker was like hitting a bowling ball. These days, its apparenlty more like tennis balls.

Anyways, do you think he can turn his career around and possibly recapture some of his 2007 success? He was sent down to the minors to work on a few things, and so far the results have been very promising. His stats are:

3 Starts: 0.98 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 18.1 IP, 11 Hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 17 K, 1.71 GO/FO

Very encouraging signs.

What are your thoughts on Fausto?

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Im encouraged...

I dont think he’s going to be able to recapture that 2007 magic ever… he was basically never quite that good – he was lucky that year.

He can be a very good starter though, just not future Ace like many thought he looked then. He just doesnt miss enough bats to be dominant…

I think he’ll come back and be an above average pitcher with stretches where he looks like something more…

by alskor on Jul 5, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some negative perspectives on his AA start

http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2009/07/fausto-wins-but-doesnt-impress.html

Cliff’s Notes: he’s throwing about 8 MPH slower than he used to, he doesn’t use his changeup as much as he used to, and he doesn’t attack hitters like he used to.

by jibs on Jul 5, 2009 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

That sounds… awful.

I think you just swung my opinion around completely.

Is it possible he’s hurt?

by alskor on Jul 5, 2009 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if that's the case

has he been pitching hurt the past two years?

IMO it seems he’s probably changed his strategy at some point based on the BB/K being < 1

his fb velocity in 07 was 93.7 and now it’s 92.7

he has completely backed off of his slider, down from 13.5% in 07 to 9.3% in 08 and about 3% in 09. I can’t understand his reason for doing that.

by gorilla_baller on Jul 5, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to clarify

that’ supposed to say “his fb velocity in 07 was 93.7 and now it’s 92.7 which isn’t a big enough difference to cause the huge swing in production”

by gorilla_baller on Jul 5, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You missed the split fingered FB

13% of his pitches were split fingered fastballs in 2007, 0% in 2009. So he went from 25% Sliders and Split-Fingered pitches in 2007 (along with 75% fastballs) to 3.8% Sliders, no split fingered pitches and 81.3% Fastballs (oh and 15% change-ups, which he threw none of in 2007).

So he went from a power pitcher, Fastball, Slider and Split Fingered Fastball repetoire to being essentially all a fastball and changeup guy. This makes me ask… is he having arm problems???

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Jul 6, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The change in strategy

seems like it might be injury-related. I was a catcher for four years in college and I remember the excruciating pain from just throwing four-seam balls to bases day in and day out. I actually adopted multiple throwing techniques that allowed me to throw through some of the pain by sparing my elbow or shoulder (depending on which one was in pain).

That was a very benign change in strategy on my part, and because I really only did this for practices it never affected my performance in games. But I could imagine a world where someone throwing 200+ innings a year, plus bullpen sessions, plus long-toss could come up with a much more dramatic strategy change.

Throwing a change-up might force Carmona to pronate a little bit more, sparing his UCL whereas a slider/splitter might employ a slightly different release and follow-through that could have been injurious.

Good point though.

by gorilla_baller on Jul 6, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually... you might be wrong

I think the algorithm that determines if a pitch is a splitter or change up might be confusing the two… the velocities of his 08/09 change up (85.4 and 85.3 mph) are right in line with his 07 splitter (85.1 mph)

when you look at his pf/x at fangraphs you’ll notice that the new algorithm calls his splitter a change up, even the ones from 07, all with similar movement.

I’m starting to think this is more Steve Blass disease than anything else.

by gorilla_baller on Jul 6, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could buy that...

You may be right. That does make more sense. Either way, he needs to command his fastball better, get more aggressive and starting getting ahead in counts!

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Jul 6, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whats hurting

is his confidence. I remember him facing the Twins in 07 and he was attacking hitters inside with that hard sinker and sawing off bats. He was using his slider off of his sinker and getting swings and misses and easy roll overs. Guys couldn’t were struggling to get the ball out of the infield.
One thing is for certain, sinkerball pitchers have to throw strikes. His wildness, whether it be mechanical, confidence, injury, will never allow him to be successful. His slider was probably never a pitch he threw for strikes consistently, if I remember right, more of a big sweeper, so it’s useless unless he’s ahead in the count. A one pitch pitcher who doesn’t throw strikes is going to have the results Carmona has been putting up.

by smoooooth on Jul 6, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

indiansprospectinsider

had interviews with the pitching coach and manager after carmona’s last start in akron and they were not pleased with his performance, despite the 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, and 5 K outing.

In 2007 he benefited from a low .281 BABIP. Like alskor said, he doesn’t miss bats

by gorilla_baller on Jul 5, 2009 9:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs