which further proves your point

this is the second top 50 i have seen omitting him. I guess the gae thing bothers people, but he is only 23. he has torn it up 2 years in a row now.

Marte is actually a really bad example of projection-versus-production with regard to prospect evaluation. The guy produced at every single level of the minors, with a .878 OPS in AAA back in 2005. He drew plenty of walks and his strikeout rate wasn’t high, especially considering his power production. The only statistical issue you could raise was that his pre-2009 career high in BA at any level was .285, which wasn’t really something that anybody would lose sleep over.

As it turned out, you’d have to refer to scouting for his inability to produce. He’s got a relatively slow bat (which may help to explain the lack of dominant batting average), and then in trying to compensate his plate discipline has fallen apart.

So what’s the deal this year? A possible explanation (although somebody who has actually seen him would be a better source): Marte is entering his prime with an accompanying peak in his body strength, which corresponds to an increase in bat speed. Making him an interesting post-hype guy to keep an eye on.

Smoak, Hosmer, Alonso, and possibly Alvarez. He outhit Alonso at the same level despite being 3 years younger and catching half of the time. He is the same age as Hosmer, but is putting up superior numbers 2 levels higher. He performed better than Alvarez despite being 3 years younger (though I could see Alvarez over Montero if you think Pedro stays at 3rd). Smoak is the only one of these 4 who has performed as well as Montero, but he’s doing it at the same level as Montero, and is 3 years older. Based on these stats, it’s hard to argue that Montero shouldn’t be top 10, especially since he has been putting up these numbers as a catcher (even if his future is elsewhere). It’s interesting that Montero gets downgraded for being a likely future 1b/DH, but yet he is ranked behind older 1st basemen whom he has outperformed.

I could make a performance argument for Montero over Stanton and Heyward, but I will save that argument for another time, since both Stanton and Heyward are Montero’s age, and will likely have more positional value in the future (unless Montero stays at catcher, in which case the argument will be flipped).

/rant over

which is much different. Pablo Sandoval is fat, and very athletic.

I’ll be upfront and say I’m a Mets fan, but I can’t see a case for Austin Jackson being a top 50 prospect, maybe closer to 70 or 80. Right now he’s batting like .320, but his BABIP is somewhere near .430. He has zero power and is striking out at a 25% rate this year with an 8% walk rate. He’s a plus defender in center, which is always valuable, but it doesn’t look like his bat will hold up in the majors.

I don’t really know about prospects that much, so maybe I’m missing something, but that’s just what I see.

Wilmer’s fly ball rate is ridiculous. He has a natural tendency to lift the ball and if that continues and adds the muscle we all think he will, he could be a big time home run hitter. But as of now, he hasn’t put up the numbers. He’s basically a singles hitter and is batting like .280, and it doesn’t seem that he has a lot of plate discipline, though he’s still just 17. His stock has dropped a bit, and I agree Mejia should be above him, but both are top 50 prospects.

Problem is that he is a good bat, but maybe not a great bat, and will be limited defensively . . .maybe that’s a guy who breaks in as a truly elite prospect if he’s at the upper levels of the minors, but out of an A baller you’re not going to get TOO excited too quickly.