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Frederick's Top 50 Prospects

1) Matt Wieters

2) Jarrod Parker

3) Tommy Hanson

4) Justin Smoak

5) Jesus Montero

6) Michael Stanton

7) Jason Heyward

8) Chris Tillman

9) Buster Posey

10) Madison Bumgarner

11) Lars Anderson

12) Gordon Beckham

13) Jenrry Mejia

14) Andrew McCutchen

15) Carlos Santana

16) Fernando Martinez

17) Brian Matusz

18) Pedro Alvarez

19) Martin Perez

20) Mat Latos

21) Neftali Feliz

22) Matt LaPorta

23) Jhoulys Chacin

24) Derek Holland

25) Vin Mazzaro

26) Jake Arrieta 

27) Tim Alderson

28) Yonder Alonso

29) Brad Holt

30) Kyle Drabek

31) Dominic Brown

32) Brett Wallace

33) Tyler Flowers

34) Michael Saunders

35) Desmond Jennings

36) Jordan Lyles

37) Jason Knapp

38) Derek Norris

39) Michael Taylor

40) Tim Beckham

41) Josh Vitters

42) Lonnie Chisenhall

43) Carlos Carrasco

44) Brett Cecil

45) Kyle Blanks

46) Casey Kelly

47) Aaron Hicks

48) Jordan Danks

49) Carlos Triunfel

50) Nick Weglarz

 

Rock 'N' Roll McDonaldz~

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I love Parker, so I like that -
I think the Holt is too high -
actually all the Mets seem high lol
Don’t like Triunfel – I’d rather have Weeks
Don’t think you can have Lyes without Moore
Don’t like Danks either

I’d rather have Morrison, Moore, Carter, on this list

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jul 4, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Aight

Moore has shown poor command this year, except he improved drastically in June. If he keeps it up, he’s easily a top 50 guy.

Triunfel holding his own in high-A ball at 17 still impresses me today. This guy can hit. He raked last year in the second half, albeit in the Cal League.

Holt and Mejia have amazing arms, and have as high an upside as any pitching prospect in the game.

Danks has amazing tools across the board, and could add solid power eventually with that 6-4 frame. This guy is looking like the White Sox future leadoff hitter.

Morrison and Carter are gonna be AAAA players. Write that down.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Morrison... AAAA?

its bold. not intelligent. but bold

by daveh33 on Jul 4, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha, can’t argue that.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how did you come up with Morrison as being one of the ones to fail?

must be the fact that he walks more than he strikes out eh?

by daveh33 on Jul 4, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

must be the fact that he’s an unathletic redneck slug who looks like an inbred eh?

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My sarcasm meter must be broken

But that’s really a terrific reason for why he’s supposed to fail.

The guy can rake.

Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.

by jonthefon on Jul 4, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Morrison

That was the name that jumped out at me not being on the list. At least taylor made it (no pun intended).

Obviously, especially towards the end, you’ll have some disagreements. And I like Carter as well, although i can understand someone having an issue with the K rate.

I know my top 50 I would overlook guys. I’d trequire several replies to me with a “hey moron you forgot so and so” before I’d get it the way I want and I’d still agonize over the cut-off.

Fred seems to have thought about Morrison though and dismissed him. I’d have to look more at some of these guys but I’d have Morrison ahead of Carrasco and Triunfel at this point. I think triunfel could be good, but not a ss and hurt, I’d need to see more. And I like Holt and Mejia a lot, not sure they are quite that high yet, a little down this list.

by wobatus on Jul 6, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

or

he simply has never seen him play while forgetting about him since he was injured this year to start off

by Fishfan79 on Jul 6, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never forgot about Morrison.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 6, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Aight

Thanks for giving reasonable responses — I’ve been busy lately so sorry for not responding back.

We differ on Moore, but we obviously disagree. The walks aren’t that bad considering how many bats he is missing both in the SO and Hits realm.

Triunfel is a 3B with no pop. While the arm is impressive, who knows about the glove as he transitions over? I see him in the back end of the top 75.

Agreed on Holt and Mejia, but neither have breaking balls (that are average pitches).

Disagree on Morrison and Carter

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Jul 6, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree about Mejia breaking pitch

He shows flashes that this pitch could be a plus pitch if he can throw it with control.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 6, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

It’s raw, but there are times when it is filthy. Mejia’s breaking ball and Holt’s breaking ball are very different propositions right now.

by jibs on Jul 6, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mejia has a pretty great change at this point.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 7, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

*by great, i mean it COULD be great.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 7, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Holt

Holt deserves to be on the list, maybe not that high though.

I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.

W.H. Auden

by jimduquettesucked on Jul 4, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The man has ace potential.

He can hit 96 with a really underrated curveball and solid mechanics. I love his ceiling.

What he’s done in 3 starts in AA is disconcerting though. I’ll keep tabs.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Injury, mostly.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 7, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brad Lincoln...

should be on this.

by joegonzo on Jul 4, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Brad Mike Lincoln…
should be on this.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 4, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Frederick, I'd love to hear your justification on some of these outliers:

Player – Rank [My thoughts]
Jarrod Parker – 2 [too high]
Jenrry Meija – 16 [too high]
Lars Anderson – 11 [too high]
Martin Perez – 19 [too high]

Dominic Brown above Michael Taylor
The absence of Freddie Freeman
The inclusion of Carlos Triunfel, despite playing in 2 games this season

Casey Kelly – 46 [too low]
Desmond Jennings – 35 [too low]

Nice list though in general in my opinion.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 4, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Parker has as good a fastball-breaking ball combo as anyone in the minors. He also has the best mechanics of any pitching prospect on my list. He hasn’t been as good as I would like since his promotion, but I expect him to improve. Worst case scenario: he’s a 3 starter.

Mejia is more than holding his own in AA at 19 years-old, striking out more than a batter an inning. He is also supposed to have solid average secondary stuff. If Feliz and Holland garnered top 25 status with limited time in AA, then so should Mejia. He’s actually pitched more innings than Holland did last year, while being two years younger.

I’m pretty sure that Lars has been playing the entire year with a sore back, which he has kept quiet about. It’s hard to forget that this is the same guy who dropped a .962 OPS in AA at 20 years-old. Besides striking out more than you would like, this guy can literally do everything.

With Perez, you have an 18 year-old who according to BA, already has two plus pitches (fastball and curve). The second best mechanics on my list after Parker IMO with great command for someone that young have me convinced that he will dominate every level of the minors. I expect him to tear through High-A ball and AA next year at 19. Only time will tell if I’m right, however.

I have Brown only eight spots ahead of Taylor, so there isn’t too much separation. Anyway, I just like Brown’s individual tools over those of Taylor. I’d say that Taylor projects to be a better hitter than Brown, but Brown has a higher ceiling.

Freddie Freeman was close to making my top 50, but he hasn’t demonstrated enough power for a 1B to be on my list. Granted, he’s only 19 and he’s very big, so he could start ripping ass any day now. He did hit for better power last year, so I expect it to come.

I really don’t care that Triunfel has been hurt this year. A guy who can hold hit own at 17 years-old in high-A ball is a truly rare talent. The fact that he has a decent chance of staying at SS is even more appealing. This Dominican Daddy has an immeasurably high upside.

When Casey Kelly’s fastball enters the 90s consistently and he starts K’ing guys at a higher clip, then he becomes a top 20 prospect, no doubt. Until then, he’s sitting comfortable around 50. Luckily for him, I expect a rise in velocity for the athletic Floridian next year, leading to an increase in K rate.

In regard to Desmond Jennings, he hasn’t shown a lot of power and he doesn’t have the age/level thing going for him. I thought 35 for him was pretty fair, though. He brings a lot to the table.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

I appreciate your getting back to me.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 5, 2009 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure you realize just how damaging a broken tibia can be

Bryant Young went from perennial All-Pro to “merely” pretty good after that injury.

It’s at least on the order of something like Tommy John Surgery in terms of its impact on a player’s future projection, maybe worse.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Jul 5, 2009 3:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right

and

This Dominican Daddy has an immeasurably high upside.

No, its pretty measurable… and limited by the fact his swing doesnt generate HR power/loft nor does it looks like it will. Add in that he’s likely a 3B… well, the upside is still very nice, but pretty measurable.

by alskor on Jul 5, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look

Mejia is my new god and all, but even I don’t have him that high or even above Fernando.

I hope your’re right

"We must win and we must know how to win rather than win because we have statistical people."

by Evan_S on Jul 4, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mejia and Holt...

are getting nosebleeds from how high you rate them. I also don’t think Danks is a top 50 prospect but otherwise it is a decent list.

Thanks for putting yourself out there. Keep it up man.

by Ion293 on Jul 4, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just would like to say that with Jenrry Mejia (dank name btw), we could be getting Noland Ryan or Ryan Seacrest. God only knows, but you have to respect the ceiling.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 8:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

*Nolan Ryan

In case you didn’t pick up on the subcommunication, that’s hyperbole, yo.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 4, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looking at his numbers, strikeout totals, short right handedness...but also his mechanics...

He reallycould be anywhere from John the Cable Guy to Pedro Martinez.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jul 7, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

where in the world is Frederick Freeman, Braves ?

I would have him up there before Flowers, Knapp, Weglarz, Truinfel and probably even Norris.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 5, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+ you have ‘Frederick’ in the Name, so……

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 5, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he does well in AA with more power, then he could instantly become a top 30 guy.

Bonus points for the name btw.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 5, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like this list

Reasonable inclusions, exclusions, heirarchy.

"That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet."

by criminal type on Jul 5, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Addendum

Minor criticism: I think Holt and Latos are going to be really good. I’d rank them higher.

"That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet."

by criminal type on Jul 5, 2009 10:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Damn, yo.

I have to admit; I really think both of these guys, alongside Mejia, are hit-or-miss type prospects.

Still, the upside is too high to not give these guys elite status.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 5, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As an Oriole homer

If nothing else, switch Tillman and Matusz….I honestly like Tillman where he is, but aside from age, Matusz is better in about every aspect…..Id keep Tillman in his spot and place Matusz ahead of Tillman. I remember your reasoning for Matusz being low is due to his mechanics, but his mechanics are now very very clean, he no longer lands on a stiff front leg and has 2 pitches which are considered plus-plus or fringe plus-plus. His fastball is above average and the slider is average-above average…..To top it all of, he has excellent poise and command and can kick it up another notch when pitching with runners on….Ive said it previously, but he is going to be the best LHSP in the minors at season’s end…..

by QBsIllest1 on Jul 7, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I think I honestly messed up on that one.

He’s looking like a consensus top 10 prospect right now.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 7, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

weill be mkaing his debut tomorrow!!!!!!!

Hey guys, I have an Orioles blog so check it out.

www.snaorioles.com

by ravensfan3 on Aug 3, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Jason Heyward alot. I’m keeping interest in Aaron Hicks as well.

Draft guru in training.

by tj.hendricks on Jul 19, 2009 2:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hurt back or no...

I think you have to downgrade Lars a little. But I generally like the areas where everyone is.

by slickterp on Jul 19, 2009 8:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I’m gonna post my updated top 50 in like an hour or two. I did more analysis and research, so I think my new list is a lot more well rounded top to bottom.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 20, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Updated Top 50

Much higher quality list, yo.

1) Matt Wieters
2) Jason Heyward
3) Tommy Hanson
4) Justin Smoak
5) Jesus Montero
6) Michael Stanton
7) Chris Tillman
8) Buster Posey
9) Gordon Beckham
10) Martin Perez
11) Jarrod Parker
12) Mat Latos
13) Jordan Lyles
14) Madison Bumgarner
15) Jenrry Mejia
16) Brian Matusz
17) Neftali Feliz
18) Desmond Jennings
19) Carlos Santana
20) Michael Taylor
21) Matt LaPorta
22) Fernando Martinez
23) Jhoulys Chacin
24) Jake Arrieta
25) Tim Alderson
26) Lars Anderson
27) Michael Saunders
28) Yonder Alonso
29) Pedro Alvarez
30) Brett Wallace
31) Brad Holt
32) Logan Morrison
33) Dominic Brown
34) Tyler Flowers
35) Casey Kelly
36) Matt Moore
37) Kyle Drabek
38) Jason Knapp
39) Derek Norris
40) Tim Beckham
41) Josh Vitters
42) Lonnie Chisenhall
43) Hector Rondon
44) Jordan Danks
45) Frederick Freeman
46) Nick Weglarz
47) Brett Cecil
48) Aaron Hicks
49) Carlos Carrasco
50) Kyle Blanks

McCutchen, Holland, and Mazzaro graduated.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 20, 2009 7:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lyles

Lyles makes a jump from 36 all the way up to 13? wow…have others underestimated him?

by Dudestl on Jul 22, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

With his peripherals, size, supposedly excellent mechanics (they looked great in the draft video and were tweaked so he could add velocity), and advanced secondary stuff for an 18 year-old, we might be looking at a kid who will pitch the majority of next season in AA as a teenager, and could very well eclipse what Parker and Bumgarner (two consensus top 15 prospects) are doing in AA.

BTW, I just thought that 36 was way too low. There is no reason for me to believe that Lyles will struggle all that much, if at all, at higher levels.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 22, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lancaster

Also, Houston’s high-A affiliate is Lancaster, which is a hitter’s wet dream, so Lyles may go directly to AA.

by Frederick0220 on Jul 22, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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