Lars Anderson v. Chris Carter
by gogotabata on Jul 4, 2009 1:41 PM EDT
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I remember last year I had the poor sense to post my own top 32 prospects list, which was riddled w/ blindspots, oversights, and bad calls (no Stanton, C. Santana, Smoak, Hanson, etc). I have come here not to praise my list, but to bury it.
Rather, remembering that list triggered me reading the comment thread, and the most controversial thing at the time was that I ranked Chris Carter over Lars Anderson as a prospect -- I largely felt BABIP was masking their similarities as hitters, and that Carter's 80 power tool put him on a different level than Anderson as a potential major leaguer (though I admitted that Carter struck me as a bigger flameout risk). Lars was pretty universally considered a better prospect at the time, as I was aware, but I wanted to make a stand on Carter (and a few other guys, like Wilson Ramos, Nick Weglarz and [gulp] Jordan Walden).
Lars has been getting some bad scout mojo lately, while Carter is putting up pretty gaudy numbers (though it is HIS luck that seems skewed upward so far this year) and seems to be getting the Ks a little more under control.
According to minorleaguesplits, their neutralized lines (taking home park and luck into account) should be
Lars Anderson 266 / 355 / 406
Chris Carter 269 / 379 / 484
Anderson had the better pedigree, and a (superficially, I think) better statistical record coming into this year, and was the seemingly consensus choice for top first baseman prospect.
Has Carter passed him?
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I think Carter isnt that far behind him
but Anderson is ahead of him.
Carter does deserve mention among the elite 1B prospects, IMHO.
Holes in the swing
I really like the Jack Cust comp for Carter…which isn’t a bad thing. Lars isn’t going to be the star some thought we would and is prob. has equal value with Carter. That said, if Lars stays in Boston he will be in a much better lineup than Carter….even projecting a few years in the future and possible roster changes etc.
Carter V Anderson
First, Carter is about 9 months older.
In every decent sample size Carter has posted over a 900 OPS and over a .385 wOBA. Lars hasn’t been as strong, since 2007, he has posted years of 829/919/772 OPS each of these lines has been complied in over 300 AB. However, Lars has put up some monster numbers at the end of years 2007 in Lancaster he put up a 975 OPS in 47 AB. Likewise, at the end of 2008 he put up a 962 OPS in 163 AB in Portland.
I think the age difference at each makes them pretty similar. The SO rates are similar in the past two years, (Lars: 22% in 09, 26% in 08 (AA) 18% in A+ Carter: 22% in 09, 26% in 08). The walk rates are also similar around 12-13%.
The biggest difference I see is Carters ISO, which also comes with an extremely high career BABIP.
I would still maintain that for all of Carter’s slight advantages, Lars is still a year younger. I’d say they are about equal, not counting defense (which I don’t know much about with these two).
Looking at Parkfactors:
Kannapolis 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.93 0.96 1.00
Midlland 1.01 1.02 1.07 0.88 1.00 0.98
Stocktan 1.01 0.98 0.91 1.27 1.02 1.08
Lancaster 1.14 1.08 1.04 1.21 1.01 0.96
Portland 0..99 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.02
Lancaster and Stockton have similar adjustments. The other ones seem pretty neutral.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Uh, if I'm not mistaken, the "Runs" adjustment is kind of the key one... n'est ce pas?
You can use the other ones if you’re trying to determine a park’s effect on a particular statistic (like Carter’s HR total last season), but if you’re looking for a generic park adjustment on a guy’s overall line, that’s the relevant one… or so I would think, I’m not an expert on park effects…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Just trying to put the numbers in some what of a context
nothing more.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Well... Stockton is basically neutral and Lancaster is a crazy hitter's haven...
that’s the context…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Disagree
For an overall team’s scoring potential you can look at runs as a determining factor of the effect of the park on their overall offense.
To ignore Stockton’s HR strength for a player like Carter is senseless.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
interesting
that you ranked Carter 14 and Anderson 15 in your own poll after this. It’s close.
Bad form, gogotabata
When you make a post like this, you’re not allowed to point out other areas in which you were wrong, you’re not allowed to suggest that you might still be wrong, and you’re most certainly not allowed to open the floor for discussion. You’re supposed to say things like “This has to hurt,” and declare any arbitrary sample to be the end all be all of the discussion. How dare you?
Consider yourself flagged, kid. Learn some etiquette.
by aap212 on Jul 4, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I know Im gonna seem liek a Homer but Ill take Carter.
They are both great prospects. Anderson has slight edge in on base but Carter has a much higher slug %. Ill take the power.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
edge to lars for 2 reasons
1. fenway much better hitting park than oakland
2. gold glove potential
Why would you rate a prospect higher because of the park he's going to be playing in?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
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