I remember last year I had the poor sense to post my own top 32 prospects list, which was riddled w/ blindspots, oversights, and bad calls (no Stanton, C. Santana, Smoak, Hanson, etc). I have come here not to praise my list, but to bury it.

Rather, remembering that list triggered me reading the comment thread, and the most controversial thing at the time was that I ranked Chris Carter over Lars Anderson as a prospect -- I largely felt BABIP was masking their similarities as hitters, and that Carter's 80 power tool put him on a different level than Anderson as a potential major leaguer (though I admitted that Carter struck me as a bigger flameout risk). Lars was pretty universally considered a better prospect at the time, as I was aware, but I wanted to make a stand on Carter (and a few other guys, like Wilson Ramos, Nick Weglarz and [gulp] Jordan Walden).

Lars has been getting some bad scout mojo lately, while Carter is putting up pretty gaudy numbers (though it is HIS luck that seems skewed upward so far this year) and seems to be getting the Ks a little more under control.

According to minorleaguesplits, their neutralized lines (taking home park and luck into account) should be

Lars Anderson            266 / 355 / 406

Chris Carter                 269 / 379 / 484

Anderson had the better pedigree, and a (superficially, I think) better statistical record coming into this year, and was the seemingly consensus choice for top first baseman prospect.

Has Carter passed him?