Thoughts on Some Rising Prospects
by ILuvDaBush on Jul 26, 2009 11:51 PM EDT
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What are peoples' thoughts and grades on these five prospects:
Brett Lawrie (2B-MIL) : Has shown better speed but less power than originally anticipated. However, he still has to be considered one of the best 2B prospects in the minors and in my humble opinion, is the best.
Mat Latos (RHP-SD) : Has shown not only the arsenal but also the fortitude of strategy. Definitely has to be considered in the top 5-10 pitching prospects in baseball. Also as an aside, one would have to imagine his arm should play well at PetCo.
Evan Anundsen (RHP-MIL) : With an arsenal based around a low 80's sinker, he has put himself on the prospect radar. Not many people heard about him prior to this year, but now many know this product of Columbine (CO). Up until his most recent start... But his bandwagon will quickly empty and I should be able to find a better spot at the front of the bus.
Brandon Allen (1B-ARI) : Power...and more power. Is he a more athletic version of Ryan Howard? He hasn't shown ANY speed this year, and yet people are even higher than him now than before this year. But then again....power in AA and AAA will do that.
Brad Lincoln (RHP-PIT) : Was making his claim for justification of his draft slot...if that were even possible, before getting lit up. However his most recent start looks like the type of starts he was becoming accustomed to at AA. His arm looks to be back to its previous form. He has to be the top pitching prospect in Pittsburgh's farm system.
So what type of grades should we expect to see right now and really, what type of grade should we expect to see by year's end.
We'll go in ascending order for me.
Anundsen: C+...he's worth monitoring further at present. B- or possibly B if his last start is just a slight blip on his radar and he does make a late season push for the triple crown in the FSL. B+ possibility with a late season bump to AA if he dominates.
Lincoln: B at present. That last start got him some points with me. He could even be a B+ by year's end if he gets a promotion and gets some late season pub (but age keeps him from getting near the head of the class).
Allen: B+. A two sport athlete who took a little time to get his footing. Undeniable talent. If he keeps up the numbers...dare I say A- or A? But run kid! Show off the athleticism.
Lawrie: B+. He hasn't fallen on his face. Instead, he's held his own while showing glimpses of his limitless ceiling. I've said it before and I will say it again. His ceiling...Rogers Hornsby. High HIGH praise. But let's hold off until the end of his first professional season before getting his bust ready in Cooperstown.
Latos: A-. Stuff... Check. Results... Check. Pitcher's Park... Check. Worst offense in baseball... Last time I checked (then again, I think Adrian Gonzalez isn't in the top third of 1B in the majors).
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When is weeks a FA....
I like Lawrie alot but hope they take it really slow with him… He is so talented but think that the talent and quick bat is covering for some of his weaknesses.
2012 is ideal.. probably 2011 though.
by novaoakland on Jul 27, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea how Latos pitching in a pitchers park makes him a better pitcher. Unless this is of course for fantasy. Also your Adrian Gonzalez statement is silly.
And in baseball simulation games
it makes him worse. Pitchers in pitchers’ parks and hitters in hitters’ parks get noticeably downgraded when moving to parks that are the opposite.
this is just my own take.
Lawrie- Bat is advanced and has a high ceiling. His bat would probably get a B+ right now, bumped to about an A- if he sticks at 2B. His glove on the other hand probably a C+, and that’s with taking into account he’ll stick at 2B. But since hitting is more important than defense in Fantasy Baseball I’d probably settle with him getting a B+ since he’s throwing in some SB.
Annundsen- good numbers, but won’t be a fantasy impact unless he can start throwing at least in the late 80s. right now he’s just a guy to stash in a deep farm.
I don’t think Lincoln can be more than B type prospect. While you cut him some slack for being young, and frankly, you hope that his second full year back will be better than his first, his numbers aren’t drop-dead amazing. Lincoln’s got strong control and a good arsenal, but he doesn’t exactly limit the hits and he hasn’t had strong ground ball tendencies this year (43% in AA/35% in AAA).
I think his GB% will go up next year to fit in line with his career numbers, but it’s not impossible that it wouldn’t. I think his upside is as a solid #3 SP, and I wouldn’t go much higher than a B on him as a result. He’s not exactly a high floor kind of guy, either, considering injury history and fluctuation in performance.
If he doesn’t improve at AAA before the end of the season (granted his BABIP is .354) I think he’s firmly a B- prospect.
question
Does Lincoln really have an injury history? yes he had tommy john which he appears to have fully recovered from… Other than that he seems to have limited injury history from what I recall.
by novaoakland on Jul 27, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Further on the floor
I actually think his floor is rather high as a inning eating number 4-5.. That low walk rate and fastball curve combo make me think he his floor is very valuable….
On the other hand I think his ceiling is not spectacular so if above is a fantasy question I am not wild about him at all from that prospective.
by novaoakland on Jul 27, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, he missed a lot of time with TJ, so I wouldn’t exactly feel comfortable projecting the floor that way. Additionally, we don’t have a huge track record of success on him yet.
I do think he’s a good fit for spacious PNC, though. The question is really whether he’ll maintain a 17-20% K rate in the majors. The Pirates have been a recent organization that does not value the strikeout like some other teams, so he may be attacking hitters more than some organizations would like.
He’s a strong bet to be a useful BOR starter with a good chance at MOR upside, but I’m still not sure exactly what we have in him yet, which is why I voiced my floor concerns.
Age is overrated for pitchers
If they’re real young, they’re in the injury nexus, and if they’re a touch older like Lincoln then their arms are hopefully a little more seasoned and mature for when they start getting 200-IP loads at the MLB level. I am not crazy about the long-term future of pitchers with full workloads at age 22 or before, as I’ve posted before.
How much power were you expecting for Lawrie?
The guy is 19 and his ISOP is .198. Last year, Moustakas was considered one of the elite power hitting prospects in the low minors, and his ISOP was .196. Jason Heyward (who was, granted, a year younger) had an ISOP of .160. Matt Dominguez .203. Lawrie is right in the mix with all of these guys.
If you prefer to compare his power with hitters in his own draft class, well feel free. The other top HS hitting prospects were Tim Beckham – ISOP .132. Eric Hosmer – .129. Skipworth: .122. At higher levels (but much older), Justin Smoak: .145. Buster Posey: .213. Yonder Alonso .201.
None of these people have hit for substantially more power than Lawrie either. There are many worries about Lawrie, but his power output doesn’t seem to be one of them
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