Matt Holliday traded to St. Louis for 3 players
by Future Fish on Jul 24, 2009 12:15 PM EDT
148 comments
3 players going the other way to Oakland in exchange for outfielder Matt Holliday. No actual link outside of watching ESPN so far today. Will post more when I find out what else is going on.
not sure who yet...
edit: Brett Wallace is one of them, former Arizona State Devil is hitting .293/.346/.423 in 222 at bats in the PCL this year
also, Oakland threw in $1.5mil..... even in these economic times ha!
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link
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4353256
oakland came out smelling like roses if you ask me. they get a top prospect for a guy they wouldn’t have resigned anyway.
by son.of.sourman on Jul 24, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
nice work on the link
the other 2 players were: outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen
Marlins Top 50 Spex : FutureFish.org
by Future Fish on Jul 24, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love it. Wallace can rake.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If Wallace can play 3rd A's win
If he is at first in 2 years then I am not impressed.
by novaoakland on Jul 24, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Then you don't know what the going rate for a rent-a-player is.
by PissedMick on Jul 24, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go for BPA in trades.
Best way to insure you don’t end up with a bust on your hands.
Wallace/Mortensen/Peterson >>>>> 2 draft picks.
><
by Blicks on Jul 24, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not the matchup
It’s Wallace/Mortensen/Peterson vs. Gonzalez/Street/Smith
by cowboy4eva on Jul 24, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus the value they got out of Holliday's play this year...
which Fangraphs puts at $12.3M. When viewed that way, it’s pretty clearly a win.
by PissedMick on Jul 24, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but...
14 games under .500 does sort of negate that right?
by cowboy4eva on Jul 24, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not really
Would the A’s be better if they hadn’t traded for Holliday? Considering that even a bad Holliday is better than Gonzalez; Street would have slightly improved the bullpen, but not enough to offset Gonzalez; and Smith probably wouldn’t even be in the majors, I don’t think you have much of an argument.
by ozzman99 on Jul 24, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't we agree then?
I just said 4 posts up:
“the matchup is Wallace/Mortensen/Peterson vs. Gonzalez/Street/Smith”
My latest post is simply saying 3-4 months of Holliday to the A’s when you’re 14 games under .500 means what exactly? I understand he was valuable but valuable players on horrible teams isn’t something I’d highly weigh in when re-evaluating a past trade. If I’m the A’s I’m simply comparing what we gave up to the Rockies vs. what we acquired from STL. And not including the 3-4 months of Holliday, which did nothing to help advance our team’s chances at a championship.
by cowboy4eva on Jul 24, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
The A’s run differential on the season is -39, one run worse than Seattle’s. If Oakland had similar lucky breaks this year, they would be right there in the AL West, especially if the Angels weren’t playing better than expected.
Results-based analysis is stupid. The A’s went into this season thinking they had a chance in the division, and Halladay’s play was worth quite a bit to them. The number’s even quantified for you.
by PissedMick on Jul 27, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if he doesn't play 3rd, it's still a good deal
Maybe with some help from Chavez, he can at least fake it. I mean, what’s he doing now anyway?
Solace: Law says he's a fourth OFer
PaulThomas: I think Keith Law is only a fourth analyst
by hero66 on Jul 24, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As saved 4.5 mill
time to sign Grant Green and Stassi
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Will the Cardinals finally stick with Ludwick, Rasmus, Holliday and give
up on the Ankiel project? Or do we suppose they will continue to platoon Ludwick, Rasmus and Ankiel?
by tt68 on Jul 24, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So much for moving Cardenas to 3rd
I smell a second base log jam
by ajake57 on Jul 24, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thats a good thing.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2B Weeks
3B Cardenas
1B Wallace
DH Carter
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think it's totally possible that Daric Barton is a better player than all 4 of those guys are/will be.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not me
and I think if the A’s felt that way they probably wouldnt have done this deal…
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I said it's possible.
Not that it’s the most likely scenario (although as the only guy in the majors, it IS the most likely scenario).
Also, I think Oakland did this deal because they hope Wallace can stick at third.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RF?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deal with that problem if it arises
the chances of Wallace, Carter, and Doolittle all being the same value is pretty unlikely, play the best two and ship the loser to the bench or another team
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Jul 24, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doolittle has been playing the outfield this year
The A’s kinda foresaw this happening.
"I feel like we are sending Danny Haren for Mulder all over again."
- Cardinal fan on the Matt Holliday trade
by Orodawg on Jul 25, 2009 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards maybe
didn’t think Wallace could play third. They kinda have a 1B.
by wobatus on Jul 24, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why do people do this?
It’s Wallace for
1) Two first round draft picks if Holliday turns down arbitration
2) Potentially another month of home game revenue thanks to the playoffs
3) A more passionate fanbase attending the games in September.
Wallace for elite draft picks and millions of dollars? Gee.
by Galt on Jul 24, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh..
Holliday was a lock to net the A’s two high draft picks..with that said, still a good trade when you consider the money saved may let them sign Stassi/Green, and Wallace is a better get than someone they’d get at 16 or later.
by WrenFGun on Jul 24, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BTB
had a good article about value of picks vs. trading for prospects … except in extreme cases the prospects are more valuable than the compensation picks… i expect that to be the case here… even more so if wallace sticks at 3b
by gorilla_baller on Jul 24, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and
always the worry that he accepts arbitration.
by son.of.sourman on Jul 24, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worry?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you only get the draft picks if a club offers arb and the player declines… you don’t want to go to arbitration with holliday and end up having the mediator deem holliday is worth 14 mil/yr or something crazy… the a’s can’t afford that
by gorilla_baller on Jul 24, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uhh, yeah they can.
Much, much better than taking draft picks.
Lots of money coming off the books. Spending on elite talent is good. Spending on crap liek Giambi isn’t.
><
by Blicks on Jul 24, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i probably shouldn’t have said that… i have no idea what the a’s financial situation is like… i always assume they’re frivolous with their dollars
by gorilla_baller on Jul 24, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and by frivolous i mean the exact opposite
by gorilla_baller on Jul 24, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People seem to think Holliday would get about $16 mil in arbitration
It’s not much more than he makes this year, and when you subtract Giambi’s option, Crosby’s salary, etc and add raises for other guys, it comes out to about a wash. The A’s could’ve afforded to keep him for another year, but I’m not sure that would’ve been best for the team.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: picks
I think your head is in the right place to weigh that opportunity cost, but that you’re completely wrong.
Holliday nets a late 1st (if a top-half team signs him) or early 2nd (if a bottom-half team signs him) plus a 1S – I believe I have that right, but feel free to correct if I’m messing the picks up.
Wallace – AAA, mid 1st, 2008
Mortenson – AAA, 1S, 2007
Peterson – A+, 2nd, 2008
They’re getting those picks anyway, except both are already at AAA and look like productive MLBers. Check out recent 1S rounds and there usually aren’t a ton of hits. Plus, they grab Peterson, who could turn into something nice and was a high pick.
I personally like combining the two Holliday trades:
4 months of Matt Holliday, X extra butts in seats from pickup, Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson, Shane Peterson
for
$4.5m in salary (9m to Holliday minus 4.5m Street was owed), Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, Greg Smith
Looks great to me.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Jul 24, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty "meh" on that "trade," personally
Good CF with big upside for yet another 1B prospect who might, if they’re lucky, play some third? Even if you call Street/Smith for Mortenson/Peterson a wash (and that’s most likely a loss for the A’s), I doubt I’d make the Gonzalez/Wallace move straight up.
I mean, don’t get me wrong, getting 80 cents on the dollar is better than the “almost nothing” they’d have gotten if they HADN’T moved Holliday, but it’s still 80 cents on the dollar. Or to put it another way, while this is individually a good trade, it’s not as good as the first Holliday trade was bad.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if Wallace ends up at 1st
If he reaches his bat potential its still a very good deal. If he can play 3B its icing on the cake.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I have to ask what you mean when you say "its"
Do you mean the current trade, or the overall “story arc trade” that rswanzey alluded to?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This current deal.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the current deal is a good trade.
Obviously there are fantasy-packages I’d rather have seen (most of them with the word “Yunel” somewhere inside of them) but ignoring the “could they have gotten more?” aspect, it’s a value trade.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like the A's maxed out their return
Defensive issues aside, Wallace was one of the players everybody loved from last year’s draft. If you asked people last year if they would trade him for a a two month rental of a struggling OFer… well, youd be laughed at. So it was let Holliday walk/see what you can get in next year’s draft OR a MLB ready, 1B, 5 hole hitter. They got two other interesting/useful players too. That’s a much better return that I anticipated even a week ago.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
As far as I can tell, Yunel was never really on the table. Teams talked, kicked tires, got nowhere. It happens.
Hey, a man can dream, can’t he?
Anyway, like I said, given the actual information we have (and barring any late-breaking revelations about other bids for Mr. Holliday’s services) it’s a good trade. It’s vastly superior to the one option we KNOW was on the table (not trading him at all).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
meh
The AL West was wide open at the beginning of the year, doing a weak buy without gutting the farm wasn’t the worst idea. Hindsight is 20/20 – you couldn’t figure every acquisition was going to flop so badly. Plus, in the scenario I wrote, I’m giving some benefit of the doubt that there was a push to make a bit of a splash from ownership as well as that there was a significant monetary gain in having Holliday on the field.
If you’re on board with the weak buy strategy – doesn’t sound like you are/were – then prospects aside, factoring in an expense of $4.5m cut further by slightly increased revenues to go with improved playoff odds makes sense.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Jul 24, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's could have gotten an only slightly worse version of Holliday for the same price in $$
and kept Carlos Gonzalez and the others— still a “weak buy” strategy, but less downside.
It was a really, really awful move.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if you just threw a blindfolded dart at a board with spots labeled
Abreu/Ibanez/Burrell/Dunn/Rivera, odds are still good that you’d be better off.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really have to think they just didnt like Carlos Gonzalez
for whatever reason.
Seems like the original plan was swap him for Holliday, then restart the process by trading Holliday for prospects you like more or letting him walk for picks and getting guys you like more. I dont really like that plan, but then I know nothing about Gonzalez or Street as people, how they practice, in the clubhouse, contract demands, etc… if Im a GM, those things could certainly contribute strongly to my decisions…
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, but if so, I just don't understand that
His bat’s pretty raw, but he’s been a ridiculously good fielder in his MLB stints. When a guy’s DOWNSIDE looks like Franklin Gutierrez…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, personally I love Carlos Gonzalez
I dont get it at all. That’s why Im (totally unfairly) speculating that its something off field that soured the A’s on him. I just dont get it. His approach isnt great, but he hit for contact as a 21 year old in the majors.
Clearly, they loved Holliday, too, and thought he was undervalued… which I see that. I do like Holliday.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s going to have to hit a lot more to become Franklin Gutierrez.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
by marcello on Jul 24, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could have said the same thing about Franklin Gutierrez before this season...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Coming into this season Guti was projected around a .320 wOBA and had already been around a 3.5 win player over 2007 and 2008. Gonzalez has a long way to go to even reach that, let alone what Guti might now be.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
by marcello on Jul 24, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I agree with that. They moved before that corner OF market (the lackthereof) really exposed itself. Maybe they overvalued hanging onto their 2nd rounder in not signing one? Then again, a sign-and-trade with most of those guys doesn’t land a Wallace-type, in the case that the weak buy doesn’t end up working out.
I also have to imagine that they were not particularly enamored with Carlos Gonzalez, which was speculated on at the time of the deal.
Regardless, I don’t think they’re behind where they were pre-Holliday trade and they got some decent ancillary benefits from it in the meantime.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Jul 24, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Track record is fine, but IMHO, Mortensen and Peterson are very unlikely to be major league players, and you could say the same about the two draft picks they would get. So yeah, Wallace is more likely to make the majors than taking the picks, but a guy who is not a clear-cut above average player at any position would at least give me pause (at least until I realized that I was saving 4.5M and might sign Stassi instead of not signing him).
I don’t know that I’d trade Carlos Gonzalez for Brett Wallace, and I think Huston Street and Greg Smith might be the two best assets after that. So no, I don’t really like the trade looked at like that for Oakland, even if Smith was really lucky last year.
by WrenFGun on Jul 24, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah, Mortenson's definitely > Smith
Also, and I know I’m sounding like a broken record here but it keeps bearing mention, the correct move is to do whatever you were going to do otherwise and then sign Stassi anyway.
Your basic point is correct, however.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
39894894
On Mortenson: huh? He’s holding his own in the PCL. Has a pretty good chance at a few years as a back-end starter.
On Peterson: I think your point definitely holds more weight here. What I’m arguing is kind of similar to our talk about the Monte draft; Peterson is doing alright at high-A, which many 2nd round picks will never do. I’d rather the more advanced player if draft slot is similar; at least you know what you’re getting.
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
by rswanzey on Jul 24, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree, when we’re talking about that high of a draft pick. While apparently the A’s liked Peterson enough to take him, I have to imagine I’d want more potential out of that 1S than Peterson.
On Mortensen, I don’t know. He’s 24 YO, so he’s surely not young for his level. His FIP basically mirrors his ERA, and his peripherals are nothing special. The 55% GB% is nice, but lower than career averages, but I think, at best, he’ll be a #5 SP. You’re right that the certainty is nice, but I’m not terribly enamored with him.
by WrenFGun on Jul 24, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see the A's turn him into a reliever.
Maybe, just maybe.
><
by Blicks on Jul 24, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is the #5 starter the most undervalued "position" in baseball now?
A lot of people seem to think 5 = below replacement just because a lot of teams throw a below replacement guy out there. But a real number 5 starter, to me, is a guy who is still about 1 WAR.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Out of Curiousity
How many teams’ fifth starters have a 1 WAR?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 25, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year
Of course the definition of a strict 5th starter may vary, especially as young players emerge, injuries/trades shift around rotations, etc. But, it’s not that hard to get to 1 WAR if you pile up enough innings. Here are guys I think were 5th starters last year that posted 1 WAR seasons:
Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson
Micah Owings
Joe Saunders or Jon Garland
Brian Moehler
Greg Smith
Jesse Litsch
Jorge Campillo
Jason Marquis
Sidney Ponson
Tim Wakefield
Jorge De La Rosa
Bannister or Hochevar or Davies
Zach Miner
Livan Hernandez
Jose Contreras or Gavin Floyd
Darrell Rasner
by jibs on Jul 25, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
By including Livan I guess I counted Perkins as a 4th starter
by jibs on Jul 25, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
Some interesting names on that list. It’s longer than I would have thought. My first thought is that Marquis isn’t the only bottom of the rotation guy to make a giant leap this year. They might be good players to take a flyer on at the end of drafts. Hmmm
BTW, now I wonder how many of those teams who didn’t have a 1 WAR pitcher at #5 also had another gas can at their #4 spot.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 25, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This trade was made because it was blatantly clear Wallace can't play 3B, IMO.
Despite what Cards fans wanted to hear, he’s a 1B.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There's no reason for the A's to *pretend* he can play 3B
I expect he’ll be moved to 1B shortly.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice problem to have lol
nowfigure out out the barton/wallace/carter/doolittle logjam at some point
maybe more trades?
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posted above
2B Weeks
3B Cardenas
1B Wallace
DH Carter
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weeks CF
Cardenas 2B
Wallace 1B
Carter DH
Doolittle RF
Brown/Desme LF
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I messed that up...
Shoulda Be
Wallace 3B
Barton 1B
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More likely
1B Brett Wallace
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Adrian Cardenas
LF Aaron Cunningham
RF Sean Doolittle
CF Corey Brown
DH Chris Carter
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
by Zonis on Jul 24, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still don't see Corey Brown making any significant waves in the majors
Sure he cut down on the strikeouts and has a higher average this year, but he also stopped hitting for power. He’s already 23 and IMO, at least 2 years away from even making it., and I expect a huge learning curve for a guy like him.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stopped hitting for power?
He was slugging .522 with a .214 ISO before getting hurt in AA. Down from his explosion in Stockton last year but still pretty good power. I’m still not fully sold on his better contact rate and I think he has a quite a ways to go to prove he can hit in the majors but saying he “stopped hitting for power” is just blatantly wrong.
by DiegoAsFan on Jul 24, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not blatantly wrong
For one thing, his batting average is 50 points higher, and he’s turned his home run power into doubles power. Maybe “stopped” is a bit strong. How about “he’s gone in the wrong direction to a great extent.”
by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2009 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I just think your expectations are too high
Almost every prospect goes down in power when they leave the Cal league and make the jump to AA so I think it’s unfair to judge his output against his performance in Stockton. If Brown had enough at bats to qualify his slugging would put him 4th in the entire Texas Leage just ahead of Chris Carter.
There are a number of things that concern me with Corey Brown but power is definitely not one of them.
by DiegoAsFan on Jul 25, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batting average and isolated power have little to do with one another...
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The "good" news is that I think it's becoming fairly abundantly clear that Chris Carter cannot play any infield position acceptably well
I really don’t think he’s an option even at first base. It’s left field or DH for him.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really? No reason?
Their starters last game in the majors and AAA were Adam Kennedy and Eric Patterson.
No reason?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Daric Barton was at 1B, I believe...
The Cards only kept Wallace there because of Pujols, and this trade is yet another sign (among many) that St Louis didnt think he could stay there. Oakland doesnt have a HOFer blocking the guy at 1B.
Ive seen his range described as “as far as he can fall.”
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come on, you can't seriously compare the prospect value of Daric Barton and Eric Patterson
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No... not my intention
Just saying neither Barton nor Patterson are any sort of long term block on wherever they think Wallace fits best. You figure out where Wallace fits, then slot in the other guys.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why Barton can't be a long term block
I’m hoping Giambi’s DL stint lasts until the A’s decide to decline his 2010 option so Barton gets plenty of chances to show how good he can be for the next 2+ months. I still have faith in him, though I’m starting to think something other than talent is holding him back.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im starting to think I overestimated his talent
I do think he can be a decent MLB 1B, but I just dont see the power coming anymore.
He was a guy I loved when he was with St Louis and when he was a catcher. I havent completely given up, but if Im his GM I wouldnt be waiting on him to come around at this point… looks a lot like a guy who needs a change of scenery… a guy who theyll probably non-tender the first year he does something half decent.
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I can't speak as to what you expected from him
But he still seems to be potentially an awfully good 1B. Considering his plate control, even if his power never develops, he has a very good shot of being a .300/.400/.440 hitter. That OPS would make him an average major league 1B, even before defense becomes a factor.
Considering he has shown at times more power than this (ISOP of .165 in 2005 at age 19, and a .185 this year), and he’s still only 23, there’s a decent chance he’ll end up closer to .300/.400/.480, which would put him just a touch behind the production of an Adrian Gonzalez this year (a few more times on base, somewhat less power)
The question is what were you expecting. If you were hoping for a superstar, well then he’s not that. But if you were hoping for a solid hitting, good defending 1B, he could very well be that
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I'm predicting or projecting this
But John Olerud never had “1B power” either. Nor did Mark Grace. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Barton can be like those guys. Great glove, high average, lots of doubles. Maybe I’m being a homer with that hope, but having the next Mark Grace around for 10 years wouldn’t be awful.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
If you walk a ton, and don’t strike out a lot, then even if you have only decent power you can be a valuable 1B
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you mean
a Casey Kotchman type with maybe more walks
by smoooooth on Jul 24, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can be
being the operative term. If your BABIP is very low, and don’t walk and your only skill is not striking out, then you’re not good
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
goldstein
Great deal for Oakland — just outstanding.43 minutes ago from TweetDeck
1. Cards/A’s swap: Mortensen is GB machine, but pretty darn hittable too. Has back-end rotation possibilities, but no guarantees.32 minutes ago from TweetDeck
2. Cards/A’s swap: Peterson is 2nd-rnd pick last year (LBSU), LH line-drive bat, + run, can play 1b/lf/cf, maybe CF in a pinch, power light.33 minutes ago from TweetDeck
3. Cards/A’s swap: Wallace is a 1B -only, but he’s nearly ready and an on-base machine with middle-range power. Could get a shot soon.35 minutes ago from TweetDeck
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also added
Great deal for Oakland — just outstanding.
Look, it’s a good deal for Cardinals too, flags fly forever, wouldn’t you rather be STL in the standings? That’s what it’s really about.
As usual, I agree with KG…
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Tweets
BenBadler So the A’s essentially flipped Gonzalez, Street, Smith and ~$1MM for Brett Wallace, Mortensen and Peterson? Not bad, not bad
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think about it...
These trades should ALWAYS greatly benefit the team way down in the standings. The team trying to get into the playoff has the motivation of winning, and is willing to make a trade that they normally wouldn’t do.
As a Dodger fan, I rejoiced last year when they got Manny and Casey Blake for 4 prospects. I hope all those prospects wind up having great major league careers. But I would never regret the trades – they got the Dodgers into the playoffs. As a fan, that is of prime importance.
by wonderphenom on Jul 24, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
What’s your resonong there?
by wonderphenom on Jul 25, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regret for the Blake trade should have started the second it was made...
by cowboy4eva on Jul 25, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still don't get it...
Sounds like the reasoning goes like this: a touted future prospect is always of greater value than an established veteran. I guess I get that line of thought, but persoanally I enjoy seeing my team make the playoffs. So many times in baseball history teams have “looked to the future” while ignoring the present. Those teams don’t often make the playoffs.
by wonderphenom on Jul 26, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So what?
Should you always be willing to trade prospect for veterans regardless of context and quality? What’s the point here?
Casey Blake – pretty decent player with pretty common skillset.
Carlos Santana – stud catcher on the verge of being MLB ready
John Meloan – interesting arm with decent chance to burn them
Look, nothing is definite, but in terms of probability, there is an extremely good chance youre regretting this trade in a couple years.
by alskor on Jul 26, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, no
The reasoning is that this particular touted prospect, who will almost certainly rank in the top 20 overall after this season, is of greater value than this particular aging, league-average veteran.
What’s with all the generalizations?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 26, 2009 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sweet that we now have the..
- and #4 hitters in our system from the USA Futures team. Wallace/Carter could be huge for the A’s. No pun intended.
"Their Triple-A rotation, led by Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, could be better than some big-league rotations; Michael Ynoa is the best Latin American prospect of the decade; 2008 draftees Jemile Weeks and Rashun Dixon bring much-needed tools to an advanced group of hitters." - BaseballProspectus.com
by Syphon on Jul 24, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me play ESPN for a second
and put this deal in the context of Sox/Yankees
1) No Holliday for Yanks, as I expect the Cards to re-sign him
2) No Holliday as a backup plan for Sox
3) Jason Bay’s price just went up
4) If Bay goes to Yanks, Sox are kind of screwed
5) Sox may need to keep more of their elite prospects in case they need to go out in the offseason and trade for a big bat to replace Bay
by alskor on Jul 24, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Who needs Jason Bay when you just acquired Chris Duncan?
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On base machine ???
What makes Brett Wallace an OB machine by the way ? Is this claim based on his lofty college totals ? Because his minor league totals don´t justify the hype.
Wallace – who turns 23 next month – has 33 BB and 350 AB so far between two levels in 2009. His OBP is .368 overall. Certainly good but hardly what I´d consider as a future “on base machine” in the Kevin Youkilis mold.
Actually, in his great – albeit brief – 2008 debut as an older player in Low A ball and for 53 AB in Double A he drew 19 BB while having 202 AB.
Unless there´s a huge spike in his walk rate, Wallace would have to emerge as a consistent .320+ BA major league bat to become an OB machine.
Leaving first impressions (i.e. 2008 debuts) aside, how does Wallace´s production compare to that of fellow Arizona State alumni and 2008 1st round draft pick, Mets 1b Ike Davis in the tougher offensive environments of the FSL & EL ? Davis is half a year younger than Wallace by the way but has hit 12 HR (vs. 11) and drawn 48 BB (vs. 33 from Wallace) so far this season for an overall OBP of .381. Is Ike Davis a future on base machine ?
I´m not making a case for Ike Davis being considered a top 20 prospect but rather for Wallace being downgraded seriously.
by Doob on Jul 24, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I was a big fan coming into this year of Wallace, Smoak and Alvarez, and have been generally unimpressed by all of them. That being said, they are very young and have a lot of time to step up
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smoak's been mashing and is now in AAA
how has he dissapointed?
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
by harendaman365 on Jul 24, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when he hits the ball
it doesn’t actually leave a trail of smoak behind it. very disappointing to say the least.
by smoooooth on Jul 24, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You were expecting him to have an ISOP below .150?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 24, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
please no higginson
*Oakland is nearly as excited about outfielder Shane Peterson as Wallace. Peterson is described as a "Bobby Higginson" type. The A’s believe Wallace and Peterson are a better return for Holliday than two draft picks, and the A’s also get right-hander Clayton Mortenson
.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/athletics/detail?blogid=21&entry_id=44224#ixzz0MCUmuYRT
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Man had a decent career
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are forgetting about the clause that says
all players compared to Bobby Higginson must be given the same 4 year forty million dollar unadvisable extension. Sorry dude it’s part of the rules
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Jul 24, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
[silly theory]
Maybe Brett Wallace learned he might be traded and started tanking his play the last few weeks so that the Cardinals would be willing to move him to his dream team!
[/silly theory]
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 24, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So what does the A's system look like now?
If you folks — that know this stuff far better than I — were to rank the A’s top 10 prospects with the Wallace deal and the slew of promotions that have gone down this year, what would it look like?
by assorted small objects on Jul 24, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, here's the top 8 IMO. Trouble deciding for #9 and #10
System has taken a major hit, and as you can tell, very very little pitching, since its all at the big league level.
1- Brett Wallace
2- Chris Carter
3-Jemile Weeks
4-Adrian Cardenas
5-Sean Doolittle
6-Josh Donaldson
7-James Simmons
8/anywhere on this list: Michael Ynoa (could go absolutely anywhere on this list)
><
by Blicks on Jul 24, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pitching
gallagher soon to be traded
simmons struggling in AAA
gio headcaase
ynoa/dls injury issues remain
mazzaro/cahill/anderson rushed to majors
outman TJ surgery
on the flipside, “low upside” guys like braden/outman/bailey were nice surprises
they have uctive lower minors pitchers like ross, capra, etc but who knows
next tier guys might be filler or something else banwart/fernandez/godfrey/hernandez
Plus a ton of relievers
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean obviously the team's got a TON of pitching depth
Just that most of it doesn’t qualify for prospect status or wouldn’t make the top bunch.
><
by Blicks on Jul 24, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, to say the pitching has "taken a hit" isn't really accurate
Since graduating the prospects is, at least in theory, a good thing.
by thejd44 on Jul 24, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Grant Green is Number 3
Stassi will be their as well. Believe this deal ensure both are now signed.
by novaoakland on Jul 24, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scouting Report From Memphis
I went to the Sounds-Redbirds game this past Monday and saw two of the players the A’s acquired in the Holliday deal. While Wallace walked in his only AB of the game, I got a good look at Mortensen and came away thoroughly unimpressed. He pitched in the mid to high 80’s, touching 91. His command in the strike zone was poor and was very hittable. He gave up 5 runs to mediocre Nashville lineup whose best hitter was probably Alcedies Escobar. To me his upside is a #5 starter and his most likely role is a long man/spot starter. Maybe he’ll grow up to be a right-handed Greg Smith.
I also have a hard time believing Wallace will slug anything approaching .500 in Oakland and as Doob as pointed out earlier his OBA isn’t anything to write home about either. I don’t think the trade is a slam dunk win in either direction. If I had to choose, I’d say the Cards got the better of the trade.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 24, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
question ?
what about Arnold Leon ?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 24, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
whats your take on the wuertz/cabrera to twins rumors?
from your twins fan perspective…any idea what theyd give up
wuertz is an elite reliever in 09 signed through 2011 i believe
you can have cabrera
by Asfan4ever723 on Jul 24, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera recently
Cabrera really struggled early in the season but he has been a stud for over a month now.
I actually originally thought we would have have to STL both Holliday and Cabrera to grab Wallace. Think A’s (right or wrong have decided RP is a dime a dozen and they can throw anyone thier.
by novaoakland on Jul 24, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera recntly
His hot streak recently is a fluke. THere’s no way he keeps it up, and I don’t think there’s anyone who thinks he will.
by ozzman99 on Jul 24, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think a lot of people in baseball still consider him a top 5 shortstop
They’re wrong, of course. And yes, his “hot streak” still doesn’t include too many balls hit very hard (subjective, I know), and his defense still sucks.
by thejd44 on Jul 25, 2009 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can argue fluke on offense (I disagree)
THink he is bringing himself back to his 700 OPS he should be at….
But where is this attack on his defense coming from?
by novaoakland on Jul 25, 2009 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't think it's a fluke?
He’s a 34 year old with almost 7000 major league PA’s and a career .274/.322/.397 line. So far in July, he’s hitting .373/.395/.530. Whatever improvement he is making in his OPS for the year, there’s a better chance it will drop off again than to think it will keep climbing.
by ozzman99 on Jul 25, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Wow
You’re hitting the A’s kool-aid really hard if you think Michael Worst an elite reliever. Do the words career year mean anything to you? Career low hit rate, walk rate, homer rate and the highest strikeout rate. Trading him was the best move Hendry made over the winter. I’ll take the next 3 years of Angel Guzman over that pudwhack anyday.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 25, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think his sigline says it all on that one
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 25, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I say jealous
Poor Cubbies got next to nothing for Wuertz.
They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!
by muffinpryde on Jul 25, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Interesting that none of you homers cared to try to counter my argument and instead attacked me. It is hard to argue against the facts though.
I don’t care if they got anyone for Worst. It opened up a roster spot for Guzman who they would have lost if they tried to sneak him through waivers at the end of spring training. They also dumped another player you guys are intimately aware of. Chad Gaudin couldn’t make the 25 man roster despite being, according to Paul, the best player in the trade with the Cubs last year. Oops. He even went so far as to say that he wouldn’t have traded all the prospects the A’s received last year for ONLY HIM.
I’m 100% certain that the Worst is yet to come. It’s only a matter of time and I’ll be here to crow about it.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 25, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Asfan4ever723 said
wuertz is an elite reliever in 09
Yes they are career numbers, and yes he has been an elite reliever so far in 2009.
They say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing all the time!
by muffinpryde on Jul 25, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're partially correct
While Wuertz is putting up better stats than ever in his H/9, HR/9, BB/9 and K/9, it’s not as if he was bad as a Cub, with the exception of his BB/9. That’s where he’s made a dramatic improvement. Well, that and the fact that he’s been nearly unhittable in Oakland. Even on the road, he hasn’t been bad (except in Yankees Stadium).
by ozzman99 on Jul 25, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still trying to figure out why improving all of your controllable peripherals is suddenly a bad thing
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 26, 2009 3:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, after a fair amount of searching, I am unable to locate this claimed post
So, um, it’s put up or shut up time, I guess.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Jul 26, 2009 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera
isn’t going to be worth much, or at least I hope he isn’t in Bill Smiths eyes. But the A’s couldn’t have asked for a better time for Cabrera to swing a hot bat. Wurtz, well he has some good value. The Twins have some solid relief arms down in the minors, I don’t know if they would give up Slama. Would the A’s be interested in a SP like Mulvey or Manship.
by smoooooth on Jul 25, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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