Midseason(ish) State of Your Team's System

The top end guys kept smashing but there’s some worry elsewhere

AAA
Maybin: Although a horrible MLB start, he has been tearing up the PCL and unlikely his status has really changed.
Raynor: The guy had big years in A+ and in AA but they were fueled by a huge BABIP. Now that that’s crashed he’s reduced to being the fast slap hitter he is. Huge step back.
Gaby Sanchez: Showing that the questions of his power are very very legit. Step back.
Coghlan: Lit up the PCL and is basically preforming how you’d expect a rookie of his skill set to perform. He’ll adjust and be an average player. No change.
Sinkbeil: You might see him released like Marceaux was. Was horrible, moved to the bullpen, still is horrible. The ’05 draft is depressing.
Rick RVH: Injured most of the year but lit up the PCL, showing a huge jump in control (2.22 BB/9). Stock up.
Tucker, Trahern: Injured.

AA
Morrison: Showing an amazing ability to walk that he’s never shown before, while keeping the other assets of his game. Stock up.
Stanton: Was great to see him cut his K’s in Jupiter but he’s striking out a 3rd of the time in Jax. Same pluses are there, same questions are there. Status unchanged.
Bryan Petersen: His power is way down, rather than being a 20/20 guy he’s looking now like he’ll be lucky to be a 10/10 guy. Stock way down.
Scott Cousins: A sleeper before the season, his power and average have not progressed how you’d have hoped. Still just showing ~20 HR power without that good of discipline. Stock about the same or a bit down.
Aaron Thompson: Lot lot better year then last year, walks are back down. Not going to be the front line starter but looking like he could become a back of the rotation starter at least. Stock up but still low.
Sean West: Struggling before getting called up, struggled in the majors. Stock took a hit but it’s still high.
Kyle Winters: Was a sleeper but his K’s are still too low. Still only looking like a back of the rotation GB guy. Stock the same.

A+
Matt Dominguez: His average has taken a step back but he’s still showing power while his discipline is basically unchanged. It’s also been a tale of months for Dominugez: From April-May, he hit just .222/.271/.307/.578 (12/37 BB/K, 2 HRs) in 176 AB. From June-July, he has hit .292/.370/.503/.873 (21/26 BB/K, 8 HRs) in 171 AB. Still, on the year, not too impressive. Step back.
Jose Rosario: Having a big year, with a 77/15 K/BB in 85 IP and a 2.75 ERA. Stock up.
There’s about 3 other pitchers have decent years, but only one of them really has potential (Alejandro Sanabia). The other two are Jeff Allison and Elih Villanueva. However, it being Jupiter and the FSL, you want to wait before crowning any pitchers.

A
Issac Galloway: Same basic deal, with bad plate discipline. Stock same.
Jake Smolinski: Striking out a bit much for what you’d like out of him, showing improved power but it’s also greensboro. Still basically is what he is. Stock same.
Kyle Shitworth: You don’t want to write of a 19 year old but nothing looks good. He’s striking out a ton, he’s not walking, he’s not hitting for power in a hitters paradise. Ontop of which is complaints on his defense, and I mean I realize a high school catcher and all, but still. Stock way, way down.
Kyle Kaminska: Have his prototypical good K/BB, and his BABIP is way down after very high in previous years. Stock up.
Brad Hand: He’s showing absolutely horrible control with a BB/9 of 5.16. Stock down.
Few guys having great years but also old for the level, so hard to put stock into them (Daniel Jennings, Johnny Dorn (No, not that Johnny Dorn), and Pete Andrelczyk).

A-
Still early so can’t really say much. But a couple college bats are doing very well. Kyle Jensen (.440/.480/.525/1.005) and Chris Wade (.308/.441/.462/.903)

R
Same as Jamestown, though one guy is doing real well. Marcell Ozuna, 19 year old out of the DR, is hitting .385/.435/.577/1.012. Keep your eye on him.

Overall: Step backwards, really. Still not much top end SP depth. Last years pitching-heavy draft class is still taking form and there really hasn’t been a breakout from the bunch. Skipworth took a huge drop, Dominugez took a drop, but the other big bats are still slugging along. But the potential depth bats took a step back too.

Fresno Grizzlies (AAA): C Buster Posey just got called up last week. He hit very well at high A (San Jose) and reports say his defense is very good and also improving. He’s probably a top-10 prospect. The only other prospect is RHP Kevin Pucetas, who doesn’t have the prettiest stats, but just seems to win and perform well everywhere he goes. He’s probably a back-end of the rotation guy, but seems to be flying below the radar a bit. Most everyone else is a non-prospect, but there are several guys that can help a big-league team. Some really good arms include RHP Billy Sadler and LHP Alex Hinshaw, both of whom are power arms with control issues who project as potential 8th inning guys. And there are a bunch of guys who are cheep filler position players, including: 1B, Jesus Guzman (who still hits, and still can’t play D), OF John Bowker (currently in ML as the Giant’s third unproven, young left-handed corner OF), 3B Ryan Rohlinger, 2B Emmanuel Burriss (on the DL, out for the season), 2B/SS Kevin Frandson and UTL IF Matt Downs (currently in the bigs). I don’t think any of them are starters on good teams, but could fill in cheaply for a rebuilding team like the Giants over the next few years.

Connecticut Defenders (AA): The pitching staff is the strength of this team. LHP Madison Bumgarner and RHP Tim Alderson anchor the staff. Neither have dominated like they did last year or the beginning of this year at San Jose, but both are doing very well at a very young age for their level. I think Bumgarner is a top-10 prospect and Alderson could slot in the top-50, although a lot of people would probably debate that. The rotation also features RHP Henry Sosa, who is currently on the DL. He was hurt last year as well. It seems like the injuries have affected his FB, which used to be high 90’s and now is being reported as around 90 give or take a few MPH, which is disturbing. His curve is plus, though, and he performed fairly well this year. No question his stock has taken a hit this year. RHP Waldis Juaquin is a great bullpen arm and has done OK, but I was hoping for more. Two lefties that might help a ML bullpen some day are Ben Snyder (who bounced back from a rough mid-year promotion to AA last year to do very well this year) and Jesse English. In the field, the main guy is SS, Brandon Crawford. He hit very well earlier in the year in San Jose and was promoted with Bumgarner and Alderson. His High A success was kind of fluky with a very high BABIP and some ridiculous power, and he’s fallen back to earth in AA. He’s doing OK, though, and his defense is reportedly very good. He’s already answered some of the questions that were present about his bat, but has a ways to go. A couple other guys that are longshots include: OF Eddie Martinez-Esteve (still no power), UTL IF Scharlon Schoop (showing a little with the bat this year), 2B Brock Bond (guy just produces), 1B Brett Pill (Mr. doubles) and CF Mike McBride (tools, but no bat to speak of).

San Jose (High A): The best prospect left here is 1B Angel Villalona, who divides people greatly. He hasn’t shown any discipline and strikes out a lot. He started out hot in April/May and slumped in June. He’s currently out for another month with a quad strain, I believe. The numbers aren’t objectively great, but he’s only 18 (turns 19 in a month). Scouts still love the bat and with players that young, the light could go on any time. He’s got at least 4 more years to really develop. I think his status has fallen a little, but he’s still in the top-100 range. The guy whose stock has shot up is LF Thomas Neal. He was a 19 year old Juco signee a couple of years ago, but fought injuries, including a shoulder injury. He’s finally totally healthy and absolutely mashing as a 21 year old. Probably not top-100 material, but in the discussion, I think. Another OF who is doing very well is Roger Kieschnick who is showing great power but pretty flimsy plate discipline. Two IF who came into the year highly regarded but haven’t done too well are 2B Nick Noonan and 3B Connor Gillaspie. Noonan has really struggled, but has improved his BB% and seems to be adjusting after a very long slump, so there’s still hope. Gillaspie has fantastic discipline but isn’t showing any power. I wonder if his future is as a 2B, as reports on his D at 3B are that it’s slightly below average at best. On the mound, a ton of lefties have had very good years. LHP Scott Barnes has done very well and is definitely in the Giants top-10. LHP Craig Clark has put together a great year as well. Don’t know that much about him except that he’s old for the level, but he’s put himself on the map with the year he’s had. LHP Clayton Tanner repeated the level (for reasons that are beyond me) and had another good year. In the bullpen, LHP Wilmin Rodriguez has very good stuff, as does LHP Dan Runzler. Both throw in the low-to-mid 90s.

Augusta (Low A): Great team to follow if you like train wrecks. The only player of serious note is SS Ehire Adrianza, who, along with one of the great names out there, gets absolutely rave reviews for his D and is hitting well for a 19 year old in a full season league. I was really skeptical about him going into the year, but have become a believer – he’s a top-10 guy for the Giants. He’s been hurt again, but OF Francisco Perguero is someone who scouts love. OF Wendall Fairly continues to disappoint, but, hey – he’s athletic. 2B Juan Carlos Perez is hitting, but is old for the league. On the mound, RHP Kyle Nicholson has had a good season. And then there’s the lefty brigade with LHP Eric Surcamp and LHP Aaron King having good years.

Salem-Keizer/Arizona (Short-Season and Rookie league): The biggest guy here is OF Rafael Rodriguez (AZ), who in a very short sample-size is hitting and showing patience, which is a very good sign. 3B Chris Dominguez (S-K / 2009 3rd Round draft pick) has been mashing, making Giants fans giddy with excitement that there’s actually someone in our organization who can hit a home run. 2B Julio Izturas (AZ) is showing great patience, making Giants fans giddy with excitement that there’s actually soneone in our organization who can take a walk. C Hector Sanchez (AZ) also shows good discipline and some power. On the mound, we have the Buccardo brothers, Wilbur and Jorge (S-K) who are sinkerballers who can strike out some people. Jose Casilla (S-K) is also highly regarded by scouts. And if I have to pick one pitcher from AZ to follow, it would be 20 year old RHP Edward Concepcion who has very good numbers and reportedly good stuff as well. Oh, and Jason Stoffell (AZ / 2009 4th Round draft pick) had a down junior year at Arizona, but showed first round stuff previously.

When we sign them, Zack Wheeler and Thomas Joseph will be Giants top-5 (probably top-100 overall) and top-20 prospects respectively. The two international signees who look like they could be something are OF Leonardo Fuentes from Columbia and RHP Marvin Barrios from Panama.

Overall, I think several prospects made serious progress – especially Neal – while some other stalled and saw their stock drop – especially Noonan. Our 2007 draft is either doing awesome (Bumgarner, Alderson, Nicholson, Runzler, Clark) or terrible (Fairley, Noonan, Culberson, Jackson Williams). Early returns on 2008 are very positive (Posey, Kieschnick, Crawford, Barnes), as is 2009 so far (Dominguez). Nobody of serious consequence graduated, so I think overall our system is much stronger now than it was at the beginning of the year.